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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics


Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…


Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s tender offers are positive for existing bondholders in our view, as the early tender considerations are 2-3 pts above the last traded prices before the announcement. Conversely, we doubt the repurchases will provide significant interest savings for the company. Still, we view the proposed new notes issuance as credit positive for Medco, as it will lengthen the debt maturity profile and enable the company to finance a Middle East acquisition using long-term funding.

We recommend that holders of the MEDCIJ 6.75 25 tender before the early tender deadline, but are neutral on the tender offer for the remaining notes. We see fair value for the proposed 2029 notes at 9.2-9.7%. 


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Lasertec and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon


Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: This week, the Topix Index gained 44pts (2%) to close at 2,309, influenced by Wall Street’s response to US inflation data and expectations of extended elevated interest rates.
  • Major Movers: Lasertec (6920) surged +17%, Fast Retailing (9983) rose +12%, and Monotaro (3064) declined -18%
  • Activist Watch: ValueAct lifted its stake in Topcon. I like the LT fundamentals for the company and look forward to positive dialogue with the activist

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Daily Brief Macro: EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?
  • Credit Growth Is Screaming Recession, but Equities Think Otherwise


EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

By Emil Moller

  • Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage
  • USDCNY & USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US Policy
  • The Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums

Credit Growth Is Screaming Recession, but Equities Think Otherwise

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Eurozone loan growth to businesses and households has evaporated, putting direct pressure on already meager GDP growth.
  • The Eurozone Credit Impulse has dropped ‘off the charts.’  Only during the Great Financial Crisis did the Eurozone Credit Impulse look worse.
  • Unfortunately, Eurozone stocks have already priced in a massive improvement in the Credit Impulse. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update
  • Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ
  • SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.
  • Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?
  • Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)
  • Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.
  • Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec
  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance


Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
  • The company’s shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
  • If overseas investors who supported ValueAct’s proposals begin to exit, Seven & I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.

Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Strong 3Q23 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) announced a set of strong 3Q23 operating data yesterday after market close.
  • Both Anta and Fila brands performed well in a challenging macro environment in China in 3Q23, with 3Q22 being a high base. 
  • Another bright spot is that other brands outside of Anta and Fila grew 45-50% yoy in 3Q23, with Descente up 40-45% yoy and Kolon up 65-70% yoy.

Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
  • ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
  • Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization

SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • SBI Life leads the Private Life Insurers in India in terms of market share, thanks to exclusive access to Banca channel of the largest bank in the country.
  • SBI Life has been one of the best-performing life insurers in terms of growth as well as margin expansion among peers in recent years, which we expect to continue. 
  • SBIL is our primary pick in the Indian Life Insurance space with an upside of ~24% and its relatively cheaper valuations offers a margin of safety to cover near-term risks.

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We visit the ‘City of Joy,’ Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.
  • Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. 
  • We have been positive on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround & transformation of its habits.

Quick Look – Lifull (2120 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Company Profile: LIFULL runs the LIFULL Home’s real estate website.
  • Compared to its main rival, whose strategy is focused mainly on the quantity of listings, LIFULL’s aim is to achieve greater quality, as measured by the percentage of inquiries that lead to sales for professional real estate clients.
  • While others primarily charge a fixed fee for listings, LIFULL charges a combination of fixed fees and incentive fees based on the number of inquiries received for a listing. 

Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Market concern on company’s redemption of Bonds of $ 3 bn in 2024 
  • Liquidity gap for company is much larger estimated at nearly $11 bn
  • Company needs to raise long term funds and/or divest assets to raise the required amount

Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.90 per share: Additional acreage should increase the size of the prize – Pulsar has signed a lease with a private mineral rights holder to expand the area of the company’s Topaz helium project.
  • The additional mineral rights are within a 6.2 mile radius of the Topaz discovery and cover a total of 2,840 gross acres (1,049 net acres).
  • OMV (OMV AG): 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 364 mboe/d.

Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec

By Douglas Kim

  • We are starting a new series called “Asian Dividend Gems.” We plan to write about outstanding companies in Asia with high dividend yields (5% to 20%).
  • The first company in this series is Koentec. From 2018 to 2022, its dividend yield averaged 5.2% and its dividend payout averaged 80.8%. The current dividend yield is 7%.
  • Koentec is a leading Korean company that provides industrial waste incineration, steam production (utility), and waste landfill services. 

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported 11% YoY decline in revenue to $1,655M in FY23. Healthcare business experienced significant customer destocking through FY23, leading to 21% YoY decline in segment revenue.
  • Ansell has outlined an investment program to improve productivity and accelerate digitalization for total cost of $70–85 million. The program calls for production as well as job cut.
  • Strong headwinds in the glove sector are expected to continue as the global oversupply situation persists. Ansell expects FY24 adjusted EPS to be $0.92–1.12 (down 3–20% YoY).

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nws Holdings, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Koentec Co Ltd, Kita Agritech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains
  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec
  • Altara, Gentree Fund Co-Lead Kita Agritech’s US$3M Seed Round


NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

By David Blennerhassett

  • Accelerating the Offer timetable for NWS (659 HK) such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?
  • Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS’ Composite Doc and New World (17 HK)‘s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.
  • The key risk now is NWD’s independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.

Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…


Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec

By Douglas Kim

  • We are starting a new series called “Asian Dividend Gems.” We plan to write about outstanding companies in Asia with high dividend yields (5% to 20%).
  • The first company in this series is Koentec. From 2018 to 2022, its dividend yield averaged 5.2% and its dividend payout averaged 80.8%. The current dividend yield is 7%.
  • Koentec is a leading Korean company that provides industrial waste incineration, steam production (utility), and waste landfill services. 

Altara, Gentree Fund Co-Lead Kita Agritech’s US$3M Seed Round

By e27

  • Philippine startup Kita Agritech has secured US$3 million in an “oversubscribed” seed funding round co-led by Gentree Fund and Altara Ventures.
  • Kita plans to use the money to digitalise the agriculture supply chain using big data and AI technologies.
  • Kita was launched in 2022 as a supplier of fruits and vegetables for restaurants in Metro Manila. The company supported local farmers by financing their agricultural inputs and directly procuring their goods for distribution to various enterprises, such as hotels, restaurants, and food manufacturers.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Northam Platinum Holdings , Canacol Energy, Vedanta Resources, Medco Energi, Riley Exploration Permian and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Oct 2023 Rebalance (Wed, 18 Oct)
  • Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023
  • Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.
  • Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics
  • Canacol Energy – Q3 gas sales dip but netbacks improve
  • Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Expect 2H23 Free Cash Flow Growth


WisdomTree Oct 2023 Rebalance (Wed, 18 Oct)

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • The annual WisdomTree rebalance takes place next week Wednesday in the closing auction. Turnover on the JSE at the rebalance last year (20 Oct) was R30.6bn, 1.5 times the 5-day average.
  • There are several SA stocks being added to and deleted from the range of WisdomTree EM funds.

  • Our buy flow estimate for SA additions is R1.3bn, our sell flow estimate for SA deletions is R1.8bn. This excludes up and down weightings.


Auctus on Friday – 13/10/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.90 per share: Additional acreage should increase the size of the prize – Pulsar has signed a lease with a private mineral rights holder to expand the area of the company’s Topaz helium project.
  • The additional mineral rights are within a 6.2 mile radius of the Topaz discovery and cover a total of 2,840 gross acres (1,049 net acres).
  • OMV (OMV AG): 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 364 mboe/d.

Vedanta Resources: $3 Bn Bonds Maturity Is Just the Tip; the Iceberg Is Nearly $11 Bn.

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Market concern on company’s redemption of Bonds of $ 3 bn in 2024 
  • Liquidity gap for company is much larger estimated at nearly $11 bn
  • Company needs to raise long term funds and/or divest assets to raise the required amount

Medco Energi – Event Flash – Tender Offer And Potential Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s tender offers are positive for existing bondholders in our view, as the early tender considerations are 2-3 pts above the last traded prices before the announcement. Conversely, we doubt the repurchases will provide significant interest savings for the company. Still, we view the proposed new notes issuance as credit positive for Medco, as it will lengthen the debt maturity profile and enable the company to finance a Middle East acquisition using long-term funding.

We recommend that holders of the MEDCIJ 6.75 25 tender before the early tender deadline, but are neutral on the tender offer for the remaining notes. We see fair value for the proposed 2029 notes at 9.2-9.7%. 


Canacol Energy – Q3 gas sales dip but netbacks improve

By Edison Investment Research

On 10 October, Canacol Energy provided an update on gas sales and drilling results. Gas sales in Q3 were 178mmcf/day, which was down approximately 4% from the level seen in Q2 due to previously flagged problems at its Jobo gas processing plant. This is being resolved and management is confident about achieving its average 2023 production targets.


Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Expect 2H23 Free Cash Flow Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • We are updating our 3Q23 estimates to reflect actual reference prices of $82.26/bbl for oil and $2.66/MMBtu for natural gas.

  • Our FY23 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $257 million, based on average oil and gas reference prices of $79.29/bbl and $2.69/MMBtu.

  • Riley’s 2Q23 production averaged 21.2 MBOE/d (71% oil), representing 109% Y/Y and 62% Q/Q gains. 


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Acal PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • discoverIE Group – Strong growth in margins & design wins in H124


discoverIE Group – Strong growth in margins & design wins in H124

By Edison Investment Research

discoverIE’s trading update confirmed organic revenue growth and operating margin expansion in H124. The company expects to deliver FY24 underlying earnings in line with its recently upgraded expectations; we maintain our operating profit and EPS forecasts. As expected, the order book continues to normalise but still provides good visibility for H224, and strong design win activity provides support for growth in the medium term.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow , Ansell Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It
  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance
  • Whether or Not to Promote Diversity in the Company Depends on Management Leadership


What EOflow Insiders Are Saying on the Current Situation & An Objective Interpretation of It

By Sanghyun Park

  • They said that EOflow has made a strategic decision not to raise any objections to the court’s injunction to temporarily suspend the sale and marketing activities of EOPATCH.
  • They stated their commitment to making efforts to actively prove that they are not subject to KRX’s substantive delisting examination. Hence, they aim to resume trading from November 1st.
  • They subtly hinted at a degree of caution, suggesting that the final agreement with Medtronic might undergo slight modifications to align with the outcome of this preliminary injunction.

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Worst Not Over Yet; Unfavorable Macro Backdrop Persists; Bleak FY24 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported 11% YoY decline in revenue to $1,655M in FY23. Healthcare business experienced significant customer destocking through FY23, leading to 21% YoY decline in segment revenue.
  • Ansell has outlined an investment program to improve productivity and accelerate digitalization for total cost of $70–85 million. The program calls for production as well as job cut.
  • Strong headwinds in the glove sector are expected to continue as the global oversupply situation persists. Ansell expects FY24 adjusted EPS to be $0.92–1.12 (down 3–20% YoY).

Whether or Not to Promote Diversity in the Company Depends on Management Leadership

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Given that embedding diversity within company is essential for the company’s growth and resilience, it’ll be up to management leadership to decide whether this should be promoted as management strategy.
  • Companies with more women in the workforce tend to have higher stock prices. It can be assumed that the company is hiring talented, skilled, and necessary personnel regardless of gender.
  • Analysis shows that companies with a higher percentage of female board members contribute more to value creation. Companies that promote board diversity are also keen on diversity throughout the company.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nws Holdings, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Koentec Co Ltd, Kita Agritech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains
  • Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec
  • Altara, Gentree Fund Co-Lead Kita Agritech’s US$3M Seed Round


NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

By David Blennerhassett

  • Accelerating the Offer timetable for NWS (659 HK) such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?
  • Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS’ Composite Doc and New World (17 HK)‘s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.
  • The key risk now is NWD’s independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.

Weekly Wrap – 13 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Shui On Land
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. Yuexiu Property
  4. China Hongqiao
  5. Longfor Properties

and more…


Asian Dividend Gems: Koentec

By Douglas Kim

  • We are starting a new series called “Asian Dividend Gems.” We plan to write about outstanding companies in Asia with high dividend yields (5% to 20%).
  • The first company in this series is Koentec. From 2018 to 2022, its dividend yield averaged 5.2% and its dividend payout averaged 80.8%. The current dividend yield is 7%.
  • Koentec is a leading Korean company that provides industrial waste incineration, steam production (utility), and waste landfill services. 

Altara, Gentree Fund Co-Lead Kita Agritech’s US$3M Seed Round

By e27

  • Philippine startup Kita Agritech has secured US$3 million in an “oversubscribed” seed funding round co-led by Gentree Fund and Altara Ventures.
  • Kita plans to use the money to digitalise the agriculture supply chain using big data and AI technologies.
  • Kita was launched in 2022 as a supplier of fruits and vegetables for restaurants in Metro Manila. The company supported local farmers by financing their agricultural inputs and directly procuring their goods for distribution to various enterprises, such as hotels, restaurants, and food manufacturers.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Daily Brief Financials: Suruga Bank Ltd, SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd, Bandhan Bank Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ
  • SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.
  • Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?


Suruga Bank – Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
  • ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
  • Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization

SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector – Initiating Coverage.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • SBI Life leads the Private Life Insurers in India in terms of market share, thanks to exclusive access to Banca channel of the largest bank in the country.
  • SBI Life has been one of the best-performing life insurers in terms of growth as well as margin expansion among peers in recent years, which we expect to continue. 
  • SBIL is our primary pick in the Indian Life Insurance space with an upside of ~24% and its relatively cheaper valuations offers a margin of safety to cover near-term risks.

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We visit the ‘City of Joy,’ Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.
  • Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. 
  • We have been positive on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround & transformation of its habits.

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