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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Vista Land & Lifescapes – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vista Land & Lifescapes – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Shui On Land


Vista Land & Lifescapes – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL) as “High Risk” on the LARA scale. This is mainly in consideration of the company’s weak financial profile, with high leverage and inadequate Cash/Short-term Debt coverage. Moreover, there are large ongoing related-party transactions. Positively, the company enjoys high margins. It also has a sizeable portfolio of investment properties and long-term securities investments, which supports the balance sheet and provides recurring income.

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Negative”, considering the company’s track record of negative FCF generation and inadequate liquidity. Moreover, the challenging macroeconomic conditions (with rising costs and interest rates) may impact its margins and financing costs. That said, we believe VLL has good access to funding, which mitigates its debt repayment risk. In addition, we believe the controlling shareholders have a strong incentive to support VLL if needed.

We initiate coverage with a “Hold” recommendation on the VLLPM notes. We deem the yield unattractive. That said, market technicals appear robust, possibly supported by demand from private banks and local investors.


Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Shui On Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Playmates Toys: Movie and Toy Reviews TMNT Mutant Mayhem Suggest Big Upside Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Playmates Toys: Movie and Toy Reviews TMNT Mutant Mayhem Suggest Big Upside Ahead
  • Ant Group Proposes Share Buyback at Roughly 30% of IPO Valuation
  • Seven & I: 7-Eleven US Poses Challenges for FY24 Guidance
  • Rorze (6323) | Q1 Miss, Buying Opp
  • Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)
  • Dr Lal PathLabs (DLPL IN): Strong Trajectory in Non-COVID Business; Positive Industry Outlook
  • 5 in 5 with Sri Trang Gloves Thailand – Touch Of Life
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) – Novatis Chose to Escape Before Tragedy of TIGIT Truly Comes
  • Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow
  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) – What Would Happen After Moderna Enters China?


Playmates Toys: Movie and Toy Reviews TMNT Mutant Mayhem Suggest Big Upside Ahead

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Three weeks ahead of the global launch of TMNT Mutant Mayhem momentum is building
  • Google Trends searches reveal rising interest in both movies and toys
  • Risk/Reward is still highly attractive, last time a TMNT movie was a success stock hit 4 HKD

Ant Group Proposes Share Buyback at Roughly 30% of IPO Valuation

By Caixin Global

  • Ant Group Co. Ltd. has offered to buy back some shares at a whopping 70% discount to the unrealized valuation for its ill-fated IPO, shortly after regulators hit the fintech giant with an almost $1 billion fine.
  • Ant Group announced Saturday that it had proposed to repurchase as much as 7.6% at a price that values the company at approximately 567 billion yuan ($78 billion).
  • The offer represents a roughly 40% discount to the approximate 960 billion yuan figure achieved in Ant Group’s last fundraising round in 2018, and is around 70% cheaper than the 2.1 trillion yuan valuation touted in its planned 2020 IPO.

Seven & I: 7-Eleven US Poses Challenges for FY24 Guidance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Gasoline retail prices have caught up with declining wholesale prices, and it should lead to around 16-20% QoQ decrease in retail fuel margin to ¥35-37 cents per gallon.
  • US gas station merchandise sales exhibited weak performance this year, experiencing YoY growth rates of 5%, -2%, -15%, -17%, and -22% during the first five months.
  • We anticipate around 25% downside for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) after earnings, as it may face challenges in achieving its FY24 guidance.

Rorze (6323) | Q1 Miss, Buying Opp

By Mark Chadwick

  • Rorze’s stock price has risen 35% since we became bullish on the stock in August
  • Q1 sales and operating profits big miss versus analyst consensus due to slowing semicon capex cycle
  • We would be buying into any stock weakness with an eye on recovery in 2H23 into 2024

Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • OHBA is a general construction consulting firm boasting a leading market share in the field of urban development, with potential to reap the benefits of the long- term shift to compact and smart cities in rural areas.
  • Since its establishment in 1922, the company has been involved in various stages of public works projects preceding the construction phase, such as urban planning, land readjustment, surveying, and land development, in Japan, where the separation of design and construction is mandatory
  • This commenced with the development of Togoshi New Town (1932), which OHBA undertook in partnership with Mitsui Gomei and Mitsui Trust.

Dr Lal PathLabs (DLPL IN): Strong Trajectory in Non-COVID Business; Positive Industry Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Dr Lal PathLabs Ltd (DLPL IN) reported 14% and 16%, YoY, revenue growth from its non-COVID business in 4QFY23 and FY23, respectively.
  • The company’s base business is now back to pre-COVID trajectory. Margins are also nearing pre-COVID level. Going ahead, the company has couple of margin levers.
  • Due to lesser competitive threat and uncertainty over COVID, FY24 is lesser challenging than the previous year. The company expects higher revenue growth in FY24 than FY23.

5 in 5 with Sri Trang Gloves Thailand – Touch Of Life

By Geoff Howie

5 in 5 with Sri Trang Gloves Thailand – Touch Of Life

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) – Novatis Chose to Escape Before Tragedy of TIGIT Truly Comes

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • BeiGene and Novartis mutually terminate the Option Agreement on ociperlimab. Our interpretation is Novartis may think its clinical data wouldn’t meet expectations, and is therefore unwilling to take the risk.
  • Theoretically, BeiGene still has the possibility of creating miracles to turn things around, but based on the current situation, the risk of TIGIT project failure is already very high.
  • We suggest that investors can reduce the position of BeiGene in advance or even consider offload entirely (In case its stock price falls due to unsatisfactory clinical data in 23H2).

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow

By Auctus Advisors

  • Chariot has raised US mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.
  • The company is also looking to raise up to an additional US$3 mm through an open offer. 
  • The proceeds of the raise will be used to drill four new low cost/low risk exploration wells onshore Morocco in a licence expected to be awarded imminently.

Moderna Inc (MRNA US) – What Would Happen After Moderna Enters China?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Moderna’s move into China helps ease its current performance difficulties. But China has its own regulations/policies on vaccines. Whether Moderna can successfully adapt/stand out in China remains to be seen.
  • The entire vaccine industry in China is expected to undergo significant changes. We listed the companies in this industrial chain that would benefit from the successful signing with Moderna.
  • An important signal behind this deal is that while significant differences remain at the top, mutually beneficial business cooperation between China and US will continue, providing investors with additional options/confidence.

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Daily Brief Macro: Malaysia’s State Polls an Acid Test for Anwar’s Government and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Malaysia’s State Polls an Acid Test for Anwar’s Government
  • Philippines’ Marcos Has Surprised on the Upside
  • Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation
  • The Energy Cable #28 Is There Life in Energy After All? – Watch Series
  • EM by EM #12 – Is the surging Peso a prelude for a longer Mexico bull case ? – Steno Signals
  • The Great Game – Erdogan’s Historic Flip-Flop – The Great Game
  • CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties
  • UK: Slackening Too Slowly for the BoE
  • Oh, Canada!
  • CX Daily: Xiaomi to Stay the Course on Chip Design After Rival Bails


Malaysia’s State Polls an Acid Test for Anwar’s Government

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The forthcoming state legislative assembly elections in six states will be the first major electoral test for premier Anwar Ibrahim and his coalition government.
  • Baseline expectations are modest for both Anwar and his opponents in the Perikatan Nasional bloc. Trends among Malay voters will be key in determining the results. 
  • Structural factors point to the headline status quo being maintained but watch for socio-religious issues and the parties’ ability to appeal to younger first-time voters.   

Philippines’ Marcos Has Surprised on the Upside

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The Macros Jr. Administration is in good standing after its first year: its economic agenda of fiscal consolidation, infrastructure spending, and liberalization strikes us as sound.  
  • Some positive political signs are also emerging: investigations into previous extrajudicial killings and a relaxation of restrictions on the media are encouraging.
  • The foreign policy shift is significant: Marcos has abandoned the Sinophilia of his predecessor Duterte, taking a more hawkish stance on maritime disputes vis-à-vis China.

Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
  • The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
  • Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.

The Energy Cable #28 Is There Life in Energy After All? – Watch Series

By Andreas Steno

  • Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
  • Below are some of the important curves in the energy space with their current price and price 1 month ago. Notice something? All have shifted upwards and we thus wonder if there is life in energy space after all?
  • If you are looking for arguments for strength in the curves below we find the Fed’s failure to tighten monetary conditions properly obvious, but that same reason might be why investors should tread lightly. Maybe that’s why energy stocks haven’t outperformed the market over the last month.     

EM by EM #12 – Is the surging Peso a prelude for a longer Mexico bull case ? – Steno Signals

By Emil Moller

  • Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023.
  • But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes?
  • We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.

The Great Game – Erdogan’s Historic Flip-Flop – The Great Game

By Andreas Steno

  • 3 main takeaways from the historic summit in Lithuania
  • The recent NATO summit held in Lithuania had an array of impactful moments that are set to shape the course of global politics in the coming years.
  • The event will be dissected from a multitude of perspectives, but there are a few major developments that stand out, demonstrating the complex tapestry of global alliances, negotiations, and unexpected twists.

CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties

By Caixin Global

  • Saudi Arabia /Cover Story: China looks to Saudi Arabia amid shifting sands in U.S. economic ties
  • China-U.S. /: In talks with Yellen, China demands removal of U.S. economic sanctions
  • Funds /: New rules for China’s $3 trillion private fund industry have more teeth, experts say

UK: Slackening Too Slowly for the BoE

By Phil Rush

  • The UK unemployment rate surprisingly jumped by 0.2pp to 3.98%, its highest level since Dec-21. This time the rise looks genuine rather than being a sampling issue.
  • Wage growth was surprisingly strong owing to revisions again, while the monthly impulse matched our view. It will probably peak in the next month’s release.
  • The BoE may await slower wages and CPI inflation’s step down before reverting to 25bp increments as the Governor didn’t resist pricing. We now expect 50bps in August.

Oh, Canada!

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The yield patterns for the 2-year and 10-year in Canada differ significantly from those in the US.
  • In particular, the 2-year Canadian yield charts are better-defined patterns than the US yields and provide more clarity.
  • In the short term, the Canadian 10-year yields are expected to increase more quickly than the US as it catches up.

CX Daily: Xiaomi to Stay the Course on Chip Design After Rival Bails

By Caixin Global

  • Xiaomi /In Depth: Xiaomi to stay the course on chip design after rival bails
  • Personnel /: China’s new office for Hong Kong and Macao affairs has its first head
  • Property /: China extends policy to take pressure off ailing property market

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Most Read: JSR Corp, Socionext, LG Energy Solution, Liontown Resources, Plus Alpha Consulting, Cameco Corp, Chindata Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang
  • JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows
  • Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook
  • LG Energy – Quick Thoughts on US$2bn EB Offering by Parent
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September
  • LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion
  • LG Chem Official ₩2.6T EB Issuance (1.6% of LG Energy SO): Details & Trading Considerations
  • Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) – ¥30bn Offer Leads to ¥5bn TOPIX Inclusion
  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes
  • Chindata: Bain’s Move Spurs China Merchants Into Action


LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 16 June, it was reported in the local media that LG Chem is close to selling about 2 trillion won worth of LG Energy Solution.
  • This block deal sale is likely to pose overhang on more stake sales of LG Energy Solution (about 10% stake) in the next 3-5 years.
  • Our NAV valuation analysis of LG Chem suggests an implied price of 1,057,770 won per share, which is 41% higher than current share price.

JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • In the last week of June, Japanese government-affiliated Japan Investment Corp (“JIC”) announced it would take over JSR Corp (4185 JP). A “surprise” but perhaps not totally. 
  • It traded tight, then it traded back out. Then worse. Then worse again. There were good reasons for this. There were perhaps less good reasons too. 
  • FUD and Flows mean that it is likely to continue to trade wide for the near future.

Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, Socionext (6526 JP)’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).
  • So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  

LG Energy – Quick Thoughts on US$2bn EB Offering by Parent

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) aims to raise around US$2bn via offering 2028 and 2030 puttable USD exchangeable bonds for LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) shares.
  • LG Chem (LGC) had been rumoured to sell down some of its stake in LG Energy Solutions (LGES), hence, this deal will remove the overhang on LGES.
  • In this note, we have a quick look at the deal and provide our thoughts on the structure.

S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
  • Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.

LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, LG Chem announced that it would issue foreign currency exchangeable bonds worth US$2 billion to raise funs to expansion into its rechargeable battery materials. 
  • Investors in LG Energy Solution will likely have a more positive view of this EB issue rather than a block sale of common shares, because of lack of price discount.
  • We believe LG Chem is not done in selling its shares of LGES as we think LG Chem is likely to sell additional 5-10% stake in LGES in 3-5 years. 

LG Chem Official ₩2.6T EB Issuance (1.6% of LG Energy SO): Details & Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • The exchange prices are ₩687,500 and ₩715,000 at a premium of 25-30% to the closing price of LG Energy Solution today.
  • The commencement date for both the 5-year and 7-year bonds’ exchange is August 28th.
  • We should design a strategic setup that targets a band play within the current price range and the low ₩700,000 range.

Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) – ¥30bn Offer Leads to ¥5bn TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) listed on TSE Growth at end-June 2021 at ¥2300/share, which was 90x the trailing fiscal year’s earnings. but only about 65x then-current year earnings.
  • The stock popped 20+% on Day 1 to close ¥2803. Last Friday, two years and 13% higher at ¥3185/share, the company announced a Secondary Offering and move to TSE Prime.
  • It’s a big offering. It’s a smaller TOPIX inclusion event. Next spring we’ll see more upweights.  

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Based on prices and turnover from 10 July, there could be one deletion from the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
  • There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria but all are non-pure play companies and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
  • There will be a large impact on a lot of stocks but the flows are not very large due to the limited assets tracking the index.

Chindata: Bain’s Move Spurs China Merchants Into Action

By David Blennerhassett

  • My read of Bain’s Offer last month, was a tactic to flesh out a competing Offer.  It seemed unlikely Bain would get the regulatory approval to take Chindata (CD US) private. 
  • Now state-backed China Merchants Capital Holdings International Ltd. has made a non-binding offer of $9.20/ADS, compared to $8/ADS from Bain.
  • This Offer is indicative. But an SOE taking over data centres makes a lot of sense. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China SCE and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Reliance Industries, Sino-Ocean Service


Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Reliance Industries, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN
  • Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?
  • [Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate
  • Industry Report – Cannabis
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended July 7, 2023


New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it’s far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August
  • A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and de minimus imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow
  • It’s unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model

Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; “New” NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral
  • NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan – still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.

[Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate

By Shawn Yang

  • Forty to sixty percent of the world’s carbon emission takes place in buildings. Energy efficiency job is the single largest component that balances the job loss
  • In traditional energy and job gain in renewable energy. China is materially behind the US in energy efficiency; We believe inclusion of energy efficiency in the upcoming stimulus package 
  • Will be a sound choice to boost employment and GDP, and our listed companies in the new energy sector shall benefit from the trend.

Industry Report – Cannabis

By Water Tower Research

  • After a strong 1H23, global equities were down this week. The MSCI World Index fell 1.42%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.06%.
  • The decline was driven by strongerthan-expected labor market data and concerns that this may make the Fed less accommodating.
  • The Russell 2000 finished the week down 1.32%, while the NASDAQ declined 0.92%.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended July 7, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended July 7, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 3.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.9%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (75.2% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 4.7%, while Energy Technology (6.5% of the index) was up 0.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 0.8%.

  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.3x versus 20.5x for the S&P 500.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets


Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets

By Kaiko

  • Last week, bankrupt crypto lender Celsius gained court approval to convert its altcoin holdings into more liquid BTC and ETH as part of its restructuring plan.
  • The company has reportedly moved some of its holdings to market maker Wintermute and stablecoin issuer Paxos.
  • As of end-March, Celsius held more than $2B in BTC, ETH and stETH and a mixed bag of liquid and illiquid altcoins, including $240mn of its own CEL token.

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Daily Brief ECM: Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
  • PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading
  • Oddity Tech IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth and Profitability, Solid Upside With Limited Risk
  • Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
  • Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies
  • Unisound AI Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, Socionext (6526 JP)’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).
  • So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  

Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy’s share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.
  • We believe PhilEnergy’s shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be more than 102,00 won or more.
  • Our trading strategy on PhilEnergy on the first day of trading would be to take partial profits (30-50%) if its price overshoots higher (by 200% or more than IPO price).

Oddity Tech IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth and Profitability, Solid Upside With Limited Risk

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Oddity Tech, the owner of popular and fastest-growing global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, set terms for an upcoming IPO. The company offers ~10.5M Class A shares. 
  • Selling shareholders (private equity firm L. Catterton and Oran Holtzman, Co-founder & CEO) offer ~8.77M Class A shares, while Oddity Tech offers ~1.75M Class A shares.
  • The net proceeds from the sale of Class A shares will be ~$41M. Oddity Tech will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling shareholders. 

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
  • HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
  • This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.

Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies

By Clarence Chu

  • Syngenta Group (1844795D CH) is looking to raise around US$9.2bn in its upcoming China A-share IPO.
  • Syngenta Group (Syngenta) is one of the largest agricultural firms globally, developing, producing and commercializing a portfolio of crop protection, seeds, crop nutrition products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Unisound AI Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Unisound AI Technology (1053075D CH) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Haitong International.
  • The firm offers AI solutions centered around its computing cluster, scheduling computing power for machine learning tasks. It provides support to the development, optimization and commercialization of frontier AI models. 
  • Its computing cluster currently harbors a computing power of over 200 peta floating point operations per second (PFLOPS), and a storage capacity of over 1.6 petabytes (PB). 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM
  • Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base
  • Heroz (4382) – Tailoring Business Growth Opportunities
  • Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
  • The Kraft Heinz Company: Winning the Market with Their Easy Meals and Taste Elevation! – Key Drivers
  • Honda Motor Co.
  • PDD Holdings Inc.: 3 Major Factors Responsible For Its Recovery – Key Drivers
  • Jabil Inc.: Harnessing AI to Transform the Industry – Key Drivers


Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • It attracts investors when a company’s 15-year ROCE averages over 25% (and has never gone below 20%). Sheng Siong (SSG SP) is one of those companies.
  • With 13% of the market capitalization in net cash (283 mn SGD) and a payout ratio averaging 70%, the stock trades at a yield of almost 4%.
  • We believe the store expansion of 3-4 stores/year ( on a base of 67) in Singapore is possible, given the pipeline of HDB tenders.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC winning with Nvidia’s business, beating Samsung due to TSMC’s advanced packaging technology; this highlights the rising importance and complexity of chip packaging.
  • China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers. We identify two potential plays.
  • Nanya Technology Earnings: DRAM market has bottomed, sees industry improvement ahead. We see a trading Long opportunity.

Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been down over the last few days following release of job openings data for May 2023 by the US Department of Labour.
  • The no. of job openings in the US in May 2023 decreased to 9.8m vs 11.3m in May 2022. It has also declined compared to 10.1m reported in April 2023.
  • Moreover, web traffic on Recruit’s job platforms Indeed and Glassdoor have also decreased in June 2023 compared to May.

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus. For C2Q23, we raised (1) Taobao/Tmall GMV/CMR estimates due to return of merchants, 
  • (2) International Commerce and Cainiao revenue estimates, and (3) EBITA margin estimates for all groups except cloud. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 116 TP, 
  • Due to 1) merchants return to Taobao/Tmall;  2) independent listing of groups; and 3) improved incentive structure after the organizational change.

Heroz (4382) – Tailoring Business Growth Opportunities

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • HEROZ is an AI technology company that provides advanced AI development expertise to both B2C and B2B sectors.
  • With a strategic focus on AI SaaS, it has embarked on a ‘buy-to-build’ strategy to develop profitable recurring revenue streams and accelerate earnings growth.
  • In September 2022, it consolidated VarioSecure (4494), a subsidiary offering network security services, and in August 2022 acquired Strategit, a SaaS integration development support business.

Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) has submitted marketing authorization applications for the investigational RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in Europe and Australia and initiated submission process in the U.S.
  • Moderna anticipates to launch RSV vaccine in 2024 in US. Each year in US, approximately 60,000–120,000 older adults are hospitalized, and 6,000–10,000 of them die due to RSV infection.
  • This year, FDA has already approved two RSV vaccines, Arexvy from GSK and Abrysvo from Pfizer, which are scheduled to be launched in the U.S. by this fall.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Winning the Market with Their Easy Meals and Taste Elevation! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kraft Heinz delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • In the quarter, the company introduced It Has to be HEINZ, a new worldwide campaign that represents the brand’s first unification under a single creative approach.
  • We give The Kraft Heinz Company a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Honda Motor Co.

By Baptista Research

  • Honda Motor’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street. but, their efforts in cost reduction and improved pricing strategies helped maintain an operating profit margin above 5%.
  • Additionally, they aim to provide attractive dividends to shareholders, with a significant increase per share and a share buyback program.

PDD Holdings Inc.: 3 Major Factors Responsible For Its Recovery – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter and the company saw clear recovery trends.
  • Revenue increased in the quarter and contributed to a total of RMB37.6 billion.
  • PDD has also launched its electronic shopping season and invested millions of RMB for promoting universal and high-quality access to reading.

Jabil Inc.: Harnessing AI to Transform the Industry – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jabil delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The company’s growth was driven by improved profitability in electric vehicles, healthcare, renewable energy infrastructure, and cloud sectors.
  • The healthcare sector also presents opportunities for Jabil, with increasing interest from OEMs seeking outsourcing manufacturing solutions.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Kelun Biotech, Boiron SA, Moderna Inc, HighTide Therapeutics, Illumina Inc, Unitedhealth Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
  • Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up
  • Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
  • Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
  • Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers
  • UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route


Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Prior to announcement, net cash of Boiron SA (BOI FP) represented 1/3rd of market cap. Most of that cash will now be distributed, conditional on deal success. 
  • Although the premium is 36%, at 9.2x EV/Fwd EBIT, the offer seems cheap vs. comparables. The deal is neutral for the Boirons, whom will get a c.€126 million special dividend.
  • The offer facilitates the entry of a private equity healthcare specialist. Delisting requires acceptances from 57.6% of the float. Gross spread is +0.4%. Investors may require an offer around €52.

Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) has submitted marketing authorization applications for the investigational RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in Europe and Australia and initiated submission process in the U.S.
  • Moderna anticipates to launch RSV vaccine in 2024 in US. Each year in US, approximately 60,000–120,000 older adults are hospitalized, and 6,000–10,000 of them die due to RSV infection.
  • This year, FDA has already approved two RSV vaccines, Arexvy from GSK and Abrysvo from Pfizer, which are scheduled to be launched in the U.S. by this fall.

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
  • HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
  • This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.

Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • In Q1, Illumina produced revenue of about $1.09 billion.
  • Illumina also unveiled Illumina Complete Long-Read technology and Illumina Connected Insights.

UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th.
  • However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn investors that volatility will likely surface within the coming days.
  • UnitedHealth is a surreal earnings beater, but it’s a surreal beater.

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