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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 30th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Macronix Intl, Gigabyte Tech.

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief ESG: Learning Through Engagement Takes a Certain Period of Time to Show Results and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Learning Through Engagement Takes a Certain Period of Time to Show Results

Learning Through Engagement Takes a Certain Period of Time to Show Results

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 8 years after the introduction of Corporate Governance Code and “Ito Report,” which showed the relationship between P/B and ROE as the cornerstone of management, few companies improved their management.
  • Companies with sustained share price growth were executing excellent growth policies and IR disclosures that were likely learned from their engagement with overseas investors.
  • It takes a certain period of time for a company to learn through engagement, for the results to show up in improved management, and for other investors to notice it.

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, Tryt Inc (9164 JP) will announce its price range in the coming week, while Kelun Biotech tries to break the US$100m+ deal silence in HK. 
  • On the placement front, even Singapore joined in the placement action this week, with only HK deal remaining absent over the past month.

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HDFC Bank – Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank – Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks
  • Japan Weekly | Oasis Prescribe New Medicine for Tsuruha
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30)-Surgical Robots, Medical Equipment New Policy, Pfizer’s Frustration

HDFC Bank – Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers
  • Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap 
  • Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque

Japan Weekly | Oasis Prescribe New Medicine for Tsuruha

By Mark Chadwick

  • Oasis has launched a hostile campaign against Tsuruha, one of the largest drug store chains in Japan
  • The company’s corporate governance needs a serious overhaul – the board is entrenched and dominated by the founding families
  • Shareholders will need to elect a Board with more independence and a greater skillset to navigate industry consolidation

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30)-Surgical Robots, Medical Equipment New Policy, Pfizer’s Frustration

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The National Health Commission released “14th Five-Year Plan for the Configuration of Large Medical Equipment”, which should drive the upgrading of the whole industry chain and accelerate the import substitution.
  • The gap between Chinese and Western hospitals can lead to many differences in the logic of future commercialization, such as surgical robots and other high-priced innovative medical devices in China.
  • The efficacy/safety standards of GLP-1 drugs have been raised sufficiently high. If latecomers’ products fail to be better than Semaglutide/Tirzepatide/Orforglipron, it’s difficult to gain market share through “fast-follow strategy”.

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Q2 Liquidity Ranking for Crypto Assets and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Q2 Liquidity Ranking for Crypto Assets

Q2 Liquidity Ranking for Crypto Assets

By Kaiko

  • Towards the end of last year, I published the first liquidity ranking system for crypto assets, comparing each asset’s liquidity ranking to its market cap and investigating which token’s market cap is the most misleading from a liquidity standpoint.
  • In Q1 of this year I provided an update to the ranking system as overall market liquidity hit 10 month lows. 
  • The good news is that global liquidity has been more or less flat over Q2, with no further drops apart from  the tokens featured in the SEC lawsuits and a handful of exchange-specific drops in liquidity, such as Binance.US.

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Reasons to Be Helpful and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Reasons to Be Helpful
  • [XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$13.7) Target Price Change]: Buy on More Visibility of Future Growth
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: Competition with Douyin Continues, Cut TP to HK$165
  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights
  • Talos Energy, Inc. – Value Creation Catalysts
  • Earthstone Energy, Inc – Delaware Expansion Adds Quality Inventory
  • Culp, Inc. – 4QFY23: Results Beat Estimates; Trends Improve in Mattress Fabrics

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Reasons to Be Helpful

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia is starting to see the seeds of recovery come through in SSSG through April and May and should get a further boost from its BOOM sale.
  • The company has resumed its store opening with plans for 13 new stores this year and a new store concept being rolled out across existing stores providing a potential boost. 
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia has a more cohesive digital strategy and has taken on its first brand ambassadors to boost millennial demand. Valuations remain attractive. 

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$13.7) Target Price Change]: Buy on More Visibility of Future Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • We are more positive on G6’s potential due to attractive pricing and higher conversion rate brought by nationwide availability of display vehicles. 
  • The success of G6 will add visibility of its growth due to the shared architecture.  We reiterate a rebound of sales momentum starting from 2Q23, driven by: 
  • 1) increased order intake of P7i and G6; 2) faster channel expansion than its peers. We raise our TP to US$ 13.7. Our TP implies 2.5x PS.

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: Competition with Douyin Continues, Cut TP to HK$165

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Meituan and Douyin engaged in fierce competition in 2Q23. Meituan intensified its efforts in three aspects: commission reduction and rebates, promotion of “Meituan Quanquan,” and video subsidy. 
  • However, our 2Q23 Meituan revenue/profit estimates are in-line/34% higher vs. cons. This is mainly because it was Meituan’s first quarter of counterattack.
  • Meituan’s counterattack has shown initial results, in Douyin’s slowing local services growth during 618, and the return of merchants. We maintain Meituan’s BUY rating, but lowered TP to HK$ 165.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A successful market disruptor – Japan Elevator Service (JES) has been executing its growth strategy, increasing market share in the domestic elevator maintenance market via organic and acquisitive growth.

  • Operating in a market dominated by OEMs, it is making solid headway by 1) offering a cost-effective solution, 2) a differentiated service offering technical services and availability of parts on par with the OEMs, and 3) experiencing rapid growth through by establishing a nationwide network providing regionally rooted services.

  • Pursuing growth opportunities – we highlight two drivers for the company; 1) secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and 2) structural demand from aging elevators requiring modernization.

Talos Energy, Inc. – Value Creation Catalysts

By Water Tower Research

  • Talos’s current valuation implies a steep discount to net asset value (NAV).

  • Management estimates the company’s year- end 2022 pro forma proved reserves have a gross PV-10 value of ~$5.5 billion (~$4.8 billion net of asset retirement obligations [ARO]) based on oil and natural gas prices of $75/bbl and $3.50/Mcf.

  • Adjusting for March 31, 2023, balance sheet items, leaves an estimated NAV of ~$3.6 billion, or $28.38/share.

Earthstone Energy, Inc – Delaware Expansion Adds Quality Inventory

By Water Tower Research

  • Earthstone announced an agreement to acquire Novo Oil & Gas Holdings LLC for $1.5 billion on June 15, 2023.

  • Concurrently, Northern Oil & Gas will acquire a pro rata one-third of the assets for $500 million from Earthstone, resulting in a net purchase price of $1.0 billion.

  • The transaction is expected to close in 3Q23 and will have an effective date of May 1, 2023.

Culp, Inc. – 4QFY23: Results Beat Estimates; Trends Improve in Mattress Fabrics

By Water Tower Research

  • Beat expectations. After market close on June 28, Culp reported 4QFY23 results that exceeded expectations.

  • Total revenues were $61.4 million, beating our $54 million estimate and consensus of $55.5 million.

  • On the bottom line, the company’s EPS of ($0.38) beat our ($0.50) estimate and consensus of ($0.45).

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: DDH1/Perent, NWS, Mandala Multifinance, JSR Corp, Silk Laser
  • The TSE’s New ‘Better’ Index:  JPX Prime 150
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Chasing Stocks Higher

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. 
  • Swire Pacific (19 HK) was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops
  • A residual NTT (9432 JP) individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn’t mean much, but it’s an interesting artefact. 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
  • There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
  • There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: DDH1/Perent, NWS, Mandala Multifinance, JSR Corp, Silk Laser

By David Blennerhassett

The TSE’s New ‘Better’ Index:  JPX Prime 150

By Travis Lundy

  • In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
  • At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan’s best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
  • In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to “make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value.” Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Chasing Stocks Higher

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Elevator Service Holdings, Singapore Airlines and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights
  • ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A successful market disruptor – Japan Elevator Service (JES) has been executing its growth strategy, increasing market share in the domestic elevator maintenance market via organic and acquisitive growth.

  • Operating in a market dominated by OEMs, it is making solid headway by 1) offering a cost-effective solution, 2) a differentiated service offering technical services and availability of parts on par with the OEMs, and 3) experiencing rapid growth through by establishing a nationwide network providing regionally rooted services.

  • Pursuing growth opportunities – we highlight two drivers for the company; 1) secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and 2) structural demand from aging elevators requiring modernization.

ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, Tryt Inc (9164 JP) will announce its price range in the coming week, while Kelun Biotech tries to break the US$100m+ deal silence in HK. 
  • On the placement front, even Singapore joined in the placement action this week, with only HK deal remaining absent over the past month.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jul 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Elevator Service Holdings, Singapore Airlines and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights
  • ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Going up to Reach New Heights

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A successful market disruptor – Japan Elevator Service (JES) has been executing its growth strategy, increasing market share in the domestic elevator maintenance market via organic and acquisitive growth.

  • Operating in a market dominated by OEMs, it is making solid headway by 1) offering a cost-effective solution, 2) a differentiated service offering technical services and availability of parts on par with the OEMs, and 3) experiencing rapid growth through by establishing a nationwide network providing regionally rooted services.

  • Pursuing growth opportunities – we highlight two drivers for the company; 1) secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and 2) structural demand from aging elevators requiring modernization.

ECM Weekly (2nd July 2023) – Tryt, J&T Express, Redox, Kelun, 4Paradigm, SIA, M&A Research, Walsin

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, Tryt Inc (9164 JP) will announce its price range in the coming week, while Kelun Biotech tries to break the US$100m+ deal silence in HK. 
  • On the placement front, even Singapore joined in the placement action this week, with only HK deal remaining absent over the past month.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 02
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Meituan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: Competition with Douyin Continues, Cut TP to HK$165
  • The TSE’s New ‘Better’ Index:  JPX Prime 150
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Chasing Stocks Higher

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. 
  • Swire Pacific (19 HK) was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops
  • A residual NTT (9432 JP) individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn’t mean much, but it’s an interesting artefact. 

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: Competition with Douyin Continues, Cut TP to HK$165

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Meituan and Douyin engaged in fierce competition in 2Q23. Meituan intensified its efforts in three aspects: commission reduction and rebates, promotion of “Meituan Quanquan,” and video subsidy. 
  • However, our 2Q23 Meituan revenue/profit estimates are in-line/34% higher vs. cons. This is mainly because it was Meituan’s first quarter of counterattack.
  • Meituan’s counterattack has shown initial results, in Douyin’s slowing local services growth during 618, and the return of merchants. We maintain Meituan’s BUY rating, but lowered TP to HK$ 165.

The TSE’s New ‘Better’ Index:  JPX Prime 150

By Travis Lundy

  • In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
  • At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan’s best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
  • In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to “make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value.” Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Chasing Stocks Higher

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free