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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: ZJLD Group IPO Trading – Subscription Rates Better than Recent Large HK Deals and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ZJLD Group IPO Trading – Subscription Rates Better than Recent Large HK Deals
  • ZJLD Group IPO: Trading Debut
  • JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details
  • Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth
  • Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case
  • AppLovin Corporation: Is AXON 2 The New Secret Weapon For Growth? – Key Drivers
  • M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers
  • Nutanix Inc: The Next Amazon Of Hybrid Multi-Cloud Computing? – Key Drivers
  • Teleflex Incorporated: Revolutionizing Gastric Sleeve Surgery with the Titan Stapler – Key Drivers
  • FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.: A Hidden Gem In Payment Solutions? – Key Drivers

ZJLD Group IPO Trading – Subscription Rates Better than Recent Large HK Deals

By Clarence Chu

  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) raised around US$676m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • ZJLD Group (ZJLD) is a Chinese liquor company primarily producing baijiu.
  • In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and valuation.

ZJLD Group IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details

By Sumeet Singh

  • JD Industrials is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • JD Industrials (JDI) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kenvue (KVUE US), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US), is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  
  • Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.
  • In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.

Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George


AppLovin Corporation: Is AXON 2 The New Secret Weapon For Growth? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppLovin Corporation had a disappointing quarter as it delivered significantly wider-than-expected losses and a negative bottom-line even though its revenues were above Wall Street expectations.
  • Its results in the quarter included the performance of the software platform, which increased 24% year over year.
  • For the first quarter of the upcoming year, they anticipate total revenue and EBITDA to be roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter which implies another possible loss-making quarter.

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.
  • Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a ‘Buy’ rating.

Nutanix Inc: The Next Amazon Of Hybrid Multi-Cloud Computing? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nutanix delivered a strong first quarter with an all-around beat.
  • The company’s renewals continue to be strong, exceeding its projected metrics.
  • Nutanix managed to deliver a successful quarter with efficient growth in the number of customers as well as in revenue and ACV billings.

Teleflex Incorporated: Revolutionizing Gastric Sleeve Surgery with the Titan Stapler – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teleflex had a mixed quarter with revenues of $758 million that was below Wall Street expectations given a year-over-year fall of 0.5%.
  • Despite an unanticipated subcomponent supply chain issue in their Surgical business, their fourth quarter constant currency revenue growth remained steady.
  • Teleflex’s Interventional, Surgical, and OEM product categories produced double-digit constant currency year-over-year revenue increase.

FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.: A Hidden Gem In Payment Solutions? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fleetcor Technologies’ Q4 results were stronger than anticipated, surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings and also surpassing the upper limit of the management’s guidance in terms of revenues.
  • The company’s organic revenue increase was 7%.
  • Its total sales increased by 19%, retention remained constant at 92%, and same-store results were up 2% for the quarter.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: SoftBank Group (9884 JP) – Revolut’s Impending Valuation Write-Down? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • SoftBank Group (9884 JP) – Revolut’s Impending Valuation Write-Down?

SoftBank Group (9884 JP) – Revolut’s Impending Valuation Write-Down?

By Victor Galliano

  • We have already questioned SoftBank’s private company valuation marks; a Schroders trust recently announced a 46% valuation cut in its Revolut investment, acquired at the July 2021 funding round
  • SVF2 acquired 5% of Revolut, also in July 2021; third party valuation providers indicate that the Revolut USD valuation has fallen by at least 50% in 2022
  • July 2021 was Revolut’s most recent funding round, implying that Softbank may yet need to mark down its valuation; this could also apply to the funds’ other private companies

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Daily Brief Industrials: AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co Ltd, JD Industrials, Horizon Construction Development, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History
  • JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details
  • Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case
  • Amaero International Ltd – No Surprises in Q3 Result, Focus on the UAE Greenlight
  • Horizon Construction Dev Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Affected by COVID-19 & Fueled by More Debt

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 28 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
  • Using a 12-month minimum listing history results in no index changes. Using a 6-month minimum listing history results in two changes – we think this is what will be used.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes but both sets of stocks have underperformed the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shanghai (SH000905 INDEX)

JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details

By Sumeet Singh

  • JD Industrials is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • JD Industrials (JDI) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George


Amaero International Ltd – No Surprises in Q3 Result, Focus on the UAE Greenlight

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in metal additive manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
  • The company has reported a Q3 operating cash loss of $3.33m which was in line with our expectations.
  • The cash balance at the end of Q3 was $9.8m with an additional $2.05m in non-recurring cash payments has been received since the end of the quarter. 

Horizon Construction Dev Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Affected by COVID-19 & Fueled by More Debt

By Ethan Aw

  • Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK) is looking to raise US$250m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • HCD is an equipment operation service provider in China. It provides services covering the full cycle of projects.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we take a look at the company’s refiled PHIP updates.

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Daily Brief Industrials: AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co Ltd, JD Industrials, Horizon Construction Development, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History
  • JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details
  • Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case
  • Amaero International Ltd – No Surprises in Q3 Result, Focus on the UAE Greenlight
  • Horizon Construction Dev Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Affected by COVID-19 & Fueled by More Debt

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 28 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
  • Using a 12-month minimum listing history results in no index changes. Using a 6-month minimum listing history results in two changes – we think this is what will be used.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes but both sets of stocks have underperformed the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shanghai (SH000905 INDEX)

JD Industrials Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hasn’t Provided a Whole Lot of Details

By Sumeet Singh

  • JD Industrials is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • JD Industrials (JDI) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George


Amaero International Ltd – No Surprises in Q3 Result, Focus on the UAE Greenlight

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in metal additive manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
  • The company has reported a Q3 operating cash loss of $3.33m which was in line with our expectations.
  • The cash balance at the end of Q3 was $9.8m with an additional $2.05m in non-recurring cash payments has been received since the end of the quarter. 

Horizon Construction Dev Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Affected by COVID-19 & Fueled by More Debt

By Ethan Aw

  • Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK) is looking to raise US$250m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • HCD is an equipment operation service provider in China. It provides services covering the full cycle of projects.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we take a look at the company’s refiled PHIP updates.

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Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Limited, Vonovia SE, M & T Bank Corp, Thai Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC/​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Index Implications as We Near Completion
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer
  • Vonovia: To Sell €1bn Residential Portfolio
  • M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23: TLI Vs BLA Pair Trade Seems Interesting

HDFC/​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Index Implications as We Near Completion

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign shareholding has dropped in HDFC Limited and increased in HDFC Bank – the net effect is an increase in foreign room to just north of 18%.
  • The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when there will be buying from MSCI trackers. There will be adhoc inclusions to the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50 and SENSEX indices.
  • HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) trades 1.39% below the merger ratio with HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and also at a lower price to book.

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
  • Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
  • In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.

Vonovia: To Sell €1bn Residential Portfolio

By Alexis Dwek

  • Vonovia to sell €1bn residential portfolio to US investor Apollo. 
  • The transaction could have a signal effect on the struggling German real estate market
  • Share price is +13% since our initial note. This could be just the beginning of share price appreciation

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.
  • Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a ‘Buy’ rating.

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23: TLI Vs BLA Pair Trade Seems Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand’s SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
  • I currently see 2 ADDs and 2 DELs but the next-in-line names are lurking close to the border.
  • Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is one of these potential ADDs and there might be an interesting pair trade against Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB) for the next few weeks. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level
  • China TMT Update (Apr.27) – BABA/700.HK/BIDU/PDD/BGNE: AliCloud Will Significantly Cuts Prices
  • China Retail Pharmacy Industry – New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February
  • Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123
  • Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors

China TMT Update (Apr.27) – BABA/700.HK/BIDU/PDD/BGNE: AliCloud Will Significantly Cuts Prices

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA/700.HK/BIDU: AliCloud will significantly cuts prices of its cloud products (-/-/-)
  • PDD: Temu expands into multiple European countries in Germany, Netherland, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. (+)
  • BGNE: Ociperlimab/Novartis trimmed 10% of its pipeline in C1Q23 earnings and did not mention Ociperlimab (-)

China Retail Pharmacy Industry – New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China’s retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down. After JD Health/Alibaba Health enter this industry, the game rule changes. 
  • In the short term, the offline chain pharmacies, JD Health, Alibaba Health, etc. would still have the opportunity to carve up market share under the trend of prescription outflow.
  • In the long term, it depends on who’re the first to establish new omni-channel retail scenarios, because the “new retail” model would comprehensively surpass traditional model from cost to experience.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Kenvue, Assertio Holdings, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Baxter International, InMed Pharmaceuticals, Teleflex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth
  • ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum
  • EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Generous Possible Offer
  • Baxter International Inc.: Surviving A Supply Chain Nightmare – Key Drivers
  • Inmed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – A Unique Developer of Rare Cannabinoid-Based Therapies
  • Teleflex Incorporated: Revolutionizing Gastric Sleeve Surgery with the Titan Stapler – Key Drivers

Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kenvue (KVUE US), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US), is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  
  • Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.
  • In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.

ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ASRT is purchasing Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) in an all-stock transaction that adds ROLVEDON to its product portfolio.
  • The initial reaction to the deal has been materially negative after ASRT added it would maintain a majority of SPPI’s operating expenses.
  • ASRT’s management has been looking for an asset that would help diversify the revenue stream away from Indocin. The purchase of SPPI achieves such a goal

EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Generous Possible Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Dechra is in discussions with EQT and ADIA about a 4,070 cash possible offer (46.6% premium, 22.6x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA and 32x Fwd P/E). PUSU deadline is 11 May. 
  • With the deal multiple at a slight premium (on both EV/Fwd EBITDA and Fwd P/E) over Zoetis, the market leader in animal health, the offer appears to be reasonably priced.
  • My base case fair value estimate is 3,568p/share (DCF-based), 12.3% below the offer price. My TP is thus 4,070p. Gross spread is 9.1%, therefore I feel the risk/reward is balanced.

Baxter International Inc.: Surviving A Supply Chain Nightmare – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Baxter International’s fourth quarter performance fell short of the expectations of its management as well as Wall Street.
  • Foreign exchange losses and the product mix throughout the quarter were the primary reasons for a rather disappointing result.
  • Sales during the fourth quarter were $3.9 billion, increasing 2% operationally, 17% at constant currency, and 11% reported-on-basis.

Inmed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – A Unique Developer of Rare Cannabinoid-Based Therapies

By Water Tower Research

  • InMed is a unique clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that is engaged in the research and development (R&D) of rare non-psychoactive cannabinoids for therapeutic use.
  • The company is stewarded by a strong leadership team led by CEO Eric A. Adams
  • InMed’s growing development pipeline is at the forefront of pharmaceutical companies that are harnessing rare cannabinoids for treating a range of disorders with unmet medical needs.

Teleflex Incorporated: Revolutionizing Gastric Sleeve Surgery with the Titan Stapler – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teleflex had a mixed quarter with revenues of $758 million that was below Wall Street expectations given a year-over-year fall of 0.5%.
  • Despite an unanticipated subcomponent supply chain issue in their Surgical business, their fourth quarter constant currency revenue growth remained steady.
  • Teleflex’s Interventional, Surgical, and OEM product categories produced double-digit constant currency year-over-year revenue increase.

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Daily Brief Macro: Inflation Watch: A Short-Lived Acquaintance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Inflation Watch: A Short-Lived Acquaintance, or in the Euro Zone to Stay?
  • Ukrainian Spring Offensive – 3 Things Investors Should Look Out For
  • RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share
  • CX Daily: China’s Struggle to Unify Localized Health Insurance

Inflation Watch: A Short-Lived Acquaintance, or in the Euro Zone to Stay?

By Andreas Steno

  • There are reasons to lean DOVISH on inflation in the short-term
  • Medium-Term prospects are much more muddy in Europe due to sticky wage inflation.
  • According to market pricing, we will see peak hawkishness from the ECB (Overnight index swaps) around September/October

Ukrainian Spring Offensive – 3 Things Investors Should Look Out For

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • The Ukrainian Spring Offensive is underway! What should investors look out for?
  • Read about Black Sea Shipping, Migrant Pressure on the West and Baltic Sea Sabotage
  • Be prepared for the coming offensive and how Putin might respond

RCEP Is Benefitting China, but Not ASEAN; Latter Gains US Market-Share

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • In 2022 (the first year with the RCEP fully operational), ASEAN’s bilateral trade deficit with China nearly doubled to US$163bn, while China’s surpluses with Japan and Korea shrank. 
  • RCEP entailed the reduction in tariffs, but non-tariff barriers (China’s primary form of protection for its economy) remained unaffected. Ironically, China has seen big unilateral gains from implementation of RCEP. 
  • The imposition of higher US tariffs since 2019, and tighter export controls since 2022, has shrunk China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US, while boosting the rest of Asia’s surpluses. 

CX Daily: China’s Struggle to Unify Localized Health Insurance

By Caixin Global

  • Health insurance / In Depth: China’s struggle to unify localized health insurance

  • Diplomat / Chinese embassy in France plays down Ambassador Lu’s remarks on ex-Soviet states

  • Sudan / Chinese nationals evacuated from conflict-hit Sudan


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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Crash in 8 Korean Stocks Related to CFD Derivatives: Margin Call in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • A Crash in 8 Korean Stocks Related to CFD Derivatives: Margin Call in Korea
  • Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon
  • Hyundai Motor: Highest Operating Profit Among All Korean Companies in 2023
  • Isetan-Mitsukoshi: ¥300 Billion from Just One Store
  • CyberAgent: Growth Avenues Seem Limited and Further Downside to Consensus
  • Vonovia: To Sell €1bn Residential Portfolio
  • [ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Preview]: Tool Monopoly for Next YMTC Expansion
  • ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum
  • Shakeys Pizza: Q4 2022 Concall Guides For Teens CAGR Revenue Growth, Margins Flat
  • Schrole Group Ltd – Strong Growth in Q1 Cash Receipts in a Usually Quiet Quarter

A Crash in 8 Korean Stocks Related to CFD Derivatives: Margin Call in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The biggest story in the Korean stock market in the past three days has been the crash in 8 stocks related to CFD derivatives.
  • As a result of the CFD related margin call selling, the following are the major impact on the 8 related stocks and the overall Korean stock market in our view.
  • They include a) overshooting on the downside on 8 related names, b) negative impact on the major rechargeable battery names, and c) negative impact on the overall Korean stock market. 

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.
  • In addition, consensus estimates for Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP) are increasing due to the company’s faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.
  • Skylark’s annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.

Hyundai Motor: Highest Operating Profit Among All Korean Companies in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the importance of Hyundai Motor generating nearly 11.5 trillion won in operating profit in 2023, which is likely to be the highest among all Korean companies. 
  • Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp combined are expected to generate operating profit of 20.7 trillion won in 2023, representing 57% of total operating profit of the top 10 Korean companies.
  • In 2023, Hyundai Motor plans a full-scale world-wide roll-out of its EV Ioniq 6. Furthermore, it set a dividend payout ratio at 25% or higher.

Isetan-Mitsukoshi: ¥300 Billion from Just One Store

By Michael Causton

  • Isetan Shinjuku has always outperformed competitors by a large distance but the store’s management is intent on widening this gap further. 
  • The key will be a focus on premium customers with ever more granular data sets to personalise marketing. 68% of sales now come from cardholders, compared to 50% in 2018.
  • While dependence on just a few stores makes Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) vulnerable to downturns – such as the loss of tourist traffic – these stores are also resilient.

CyberAgent: Growth Avenues Seem Limited and Further Downside to Consensus

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • CA reported 2QFY09/2023 results today. Revenue increased 2.4% YoY to ¥195.6bn (vs consensus ¥191.0bn) while operating profit declined 27.0% YoY to ¥18.8bn (vs consensus ¥18.0bn).
  • The viewership for AbemaTV has fallen back to pre-FIFA levels and revenue growth from AbemaTV has been on a declining trend.
  • CA didn’t release any gaming titles despite mentioning about 3 for 2022. The company has mentioned about 2 titles for FY09/2023 and the segment seems struggling with producing hit titles.

Vonovia: To Sell €1bn Residential Portfolio

By Alexis Dwek

  • Vonovia to sell €1bn residential portfolio to US investor Apollo. 
  • The transaction could have a signal effect on the struggling German real estate market
  • Share price is +13% since our initial note. This could be just the beginning of share price appreciation

[ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Preview]: Tool Monopoly for Next YMTC Expansion

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect ACMR to report C1Q23 top-line and IFRS net income 2.8% and 83% vs. consensus, respectively. 
  • We expect it to raise FY the mid-point of its guidance to US$560mn~, due to YMTC orders and 4Q23 order visibility; 
  • We are buyers into earnings but avoid long-positions between reporting dates due to geopolitical risk exposure.

ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ASRT is purchasing Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) in an all-stock transaction that adds ROLVEDON to its product portfolio.
  • The initial reaction to the deal has been materially negative after ASRT added it would maintain a majority of SPPI’s operating expenses.
  • ASRT’s management has been looking for an asset that would help diversify the revenue stream away from Indocin. The purchase of SPPI achieves such a goal

Shakeys Pizza: Q4 2022 Concall Guides For Teens CAGR Revenue Growth, Margins Flat

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) came in higher than analysts on earnings for FY22, posting an 873 mn peso bottom line number (vs. a 728 mn peso Bloomberg consensus).   
  • Systemwide sales grew 101% YoY to 14.1 bn pesos, with 4.5 bn pesos in the last quarter, up 113% YoY. Excluding Potato Corner, growth for the year was 37% YoY.
  • Based on their guidance for FY23 of 20% growth on the topline/bottom line, the stock trades at 13.7x FY23e PE with future growth in the mid-teens CAGR. 

Schrole Group Ltd – Strong Growth in Q1 Cash Receipts in a Usually Quiet Quarter

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Schrole Group Ltd (ASX:SCL) is an Australian software company focused on providing human resource technology solutions to the international education and training sector.
  • Schrole has developed a suite of five HR Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings including the core product, Schrole Connect, a SaaS-based staff recruitment platform.
  • Schrole Group has reported a 23% increase in quarter-on- quarter cash receipts to $1.29m and a narrowed operating cash loss of $0.37m, in what Is a seasonally quiet quarter for the company. 

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