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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: Passive Funds and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Passive Funds, Silent Shareholders, Are a Barrier to Corporate Governance

Passive Funds, Silent Shareholders, Are a Barrier to Corporate Governance

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While policy holdings have declined, passive funds have appeared among the top shareholders of many companies. The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases have accelerated this growth. 
  • The question is whether the passive funds that have appeared as major shareholders in each company are exercising their voting rights on reasonably reasonable basis that fulfills their fiduciary duties.
  • In reality, engagement is limited to a few companies due to the large number of portfolio companies and low management fees.This implies that the same is true for proxy voting.

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (26th Mar 2023) – Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (26th Mar 2023) – Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Harita, Trial, DPC, Onewo, Leap, Growatt

ECM Weekly (26th Mar 2023) – Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Harita, Trial, DPC, Onewo, Leap, Growatt

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • Japan and Indonesia appear to be the hubs of APAC ECM activity with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) going live
  • On the placements front, this week was comparatively quiet, given the market volatility. There are a few lockup expiries coming up next week.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Li Auto: First Quarterly Profit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Auto: First Quarterly Profit, Route to Sustained Annual Profits Will Be Harder

Li Auto: First Quarterly Profit, Route to Sustained Annual Profits Will Be Harder

By Victoria Li

  • First quarterly profit in 4Q’22 (first amongst the 3 main emerging brands) has raised expectations of full year profitability in ‘2023
  • Launch of BEV will increase production, R&D, platform depreciation and marketing costs
  • Despite our expection of revenues doubling y/y in ’23, profitability may not increase accordingly

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer
  • KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Toyota Industries, Meituan, Kingsoft, Rakuten Bank
  • KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Humasis (205470 KS) To Replace Cellivery (268600 KS)
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Healius, Mincor, Osstem, Golden Energy, S.M.Entertainment

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

By Brian Freitas


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank

By Brian Freitas


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

By Arun George

  • Estia Health (EHE AU) confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).
  • The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to Regis Healthcare (REG AU)’s (the key peer) multiples.  
  • However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.

KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korea Exchange announced special changes in KOSPI 200 index.
  • Effective 3 April, Meritz Securities (008560 KS) will be excluded from the KOSPI 200 index and DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) will replace it. 
  • We think that there could be slightly better capital flow into DGB Financial as compared to other regional/smaller banks in Korea including BNK Financial

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Toyota Industries, Meituan, Kingsoft, Rakuten Bank

By David Blennerhassett


KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Humasis (205470 KS) To Replace Cellivery (268600 KS)

By Brian Freitas

  • Following Cellivery Therapeutics (268600 KS) designation as an Administrative Issue and an Investment Attention Issue, the stock will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index and replaced with Humasis (205470 KS).
  • The timing of the index change is currently uncertain but will be implemented latest by the close of trading on 17 April.
  • Humasis (205470 KS) was limit up on Friday following the ex-date of a 1:3 scrip issue. The stock could continue to move higher over the next week.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Healius, Mincor, Osstem, Golden Energy, S.M.Entertainment

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Macro: Crisis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Crisis, What Crisis! – The Drivers of Global Liquidity and What to Watch Out For?
  • Fed Holds Its Nerve, but Banking System Liquidity Issues Persist
  • Money Watch: European Bank Loan Books Look Worse than US Peers

Crisis, What Crisis! – The Drivers of Global Liquidity and What to Watch Out For?

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity is the key driver of asset markets. Global Liquidity bottomed in October. Expect a small rise in 2023
  • Central Banks, led by the US Fed seem to be restarting a QE program and injecting more liquidity
  • Watch the MOVE Index and the daily size of Reverse Repos (RRP) for clues about the direction of Global Liquidity

Fed Holds Its Nerve, but Banking System Liquidity Issues Persist

By Said Desaque

  • High inflation has made it impossible for the Fed to pause or ease policy settings this month despite the onset of banking system concerns, but rate hikes could soon end. 
  • Futures contracts are discounting the Fed will cut the federal funds rate in H2. The Fed has responded to international banking events by opening dollar liquidity swap lines.
  • The experience of the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch merger suggests that UBS could face significant legacy issues following the government-brokered takeover of Credit Suisse.

Money Watch: European Bank Loan Books Look Worse than US Peers

By Andreas Steno

  • European liquidity risks are smaller than US liquidity risks due to tighter legislation
  • Loan books in European banks are on the other hand much more risky than US peers
  • The negative bond yields in Europe led to even more extreme yield seeking from European banks

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Most Read: Invocare Ltd, Toshiba Corp, Rakuten Bank, Toyota Industries, DGB Financial Group, Beijing Kunlun Tech, Estia Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba Board to Shareholders:  “Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It’s Up To You (We’re Tired Too)”
  • InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s A$12.65/Share NBIO
  • Toshiba – Thoughts On The Tender Opinion
  • Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • Toyota Industries: Guilty As Charged. But Excessively Punished
  • Crisis, What Crisis! – The Drivers of Global Liquidity and What to Watch Out For?
  • KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank
  • Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer
  • Japan Weekly | Financials Still a Concern, Recruit, Toyota Industries

Toshiba Board to Shareholders:  “Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It’s Up To You (We’re Tired Too)”

By Travis Lundy

  • Just post-close, the Nikkei reported Toshiba’s Board had agreed a JIP deal at “around ¥2trln.” Toshiba confirmed HOURS later indicating language was still being hashed out. And the dividend cancelled.
  • Toshiba “supports” the deal because it aligns a single shareholder with management goals. They cannot recommend to general shareholders because it is too low. But JIP was the only bidder. 
  • It raises the question of whether activists will submit to “Toshiba Fatigue” at what the Board admits is too low a price, or whether there is still fight left.

InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s A$12.65/Share NBIO

By Brian Freitas

  • Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) has received an unsolicited, preliminary, non-binding indicative offer from TPG Global to acquire the company at A$12.65/share in cash.
  • TPG has also acquired 17.8% of the shares in Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) via a combination of stock and derivatives.
  • With the company now in play, there could be competing offers. Already owning 17.8% of the company, TPG is now invested in ensuring they gain control.

Toshiba – Thoughts On The Tender Opinion

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba released documents on the tender and a notice that the FY end dividend would be cancelled shortly after our last report was published. 
  • They are interesting in that the Special Committee’s opinions are relatively frank but details on the valuation process are almost non-existent. 
  • In addition, the information regarding other bids and alternatives was a little surprising to us.

Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

Toyota Industries: Guilty As Charged. But Excessively Punished

By David Blennerhassett

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP), one of the world’s leading forklift manufacturers, has admitted to fabricating the results of parts testing, forcing some forklift shipments to be halted.
  • TICO has decided to suspend the shipping of three models of forklifts equipped with the suspect engines, which account for ~6% of total forklift sales (in terms of count). 
  • Shares, quite rightly, have taken a hit. But this correction appears excessive.

Crisis, What Crisis! – The Drivers of Global Liquidity and What to Watch Out For?

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity is the key driver of asset markets. Global Liquidity bottomed in October. Expect a small rise in 2023
  • Central Banks, led by the US Fed seem to be restarting a QE program and injecting more liquidity
  • Watch the MOVE Index and the daily size of Reverse Repos (RRP) for clues about the direction of Global Liquidity

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

By Brian Freitas


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI KR, S&P/ASX, SSE50, ChiNext, NIFTY, KQ150, AMFI, Rakuten Bank

By Brian Freitas


Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

By Arun George

  • Estia Health (EHE AU) confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).
  • The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to Regis Healthcare (REG AU)’s (the key peer) multiples.  
  • However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.

Japan Weekly | Financials Still a Concern, Recruit, Toyota Industries

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese equities were marginally higher on the week as global markets continued to focus on problems in the banking system
  • The Fed, The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank continued to fight the war on inflation.
  • In Japan, Recruit was the standout performer after the company announced a hefty cut to its workforce (in a bad news is good news kinda way)

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

By Joe Jasper

  • The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
  • We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
  • If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.

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Daily Brief Credit: Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment
  • Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023
  • Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact
  • Eastman Chemical Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • MTN Group: FY16 Results:Disappointing, but Widely Expected
  • Dow Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Cintas Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment

By BOS Research

  • Burgan Bank is the second-largest commercial bank in Kuwait, with total assets of USD 24 billion as of December 2016, and it is the fourth largest bank in the country in terms of its locally based banking assets.
  • Kuwait Projects Co. (KIPCO), a preeminent Kuwaiti investment holding company controlled by the ruling family of Kuwait, owns 64.88% of Burgan Bank and has historically been supportive.
  • Thanks to its operations in Turkey, Iraq, Algeria, and Tunisia, the bank enjoys a geographically welldiversified revenue base. The Kuwaiti operations represented 59% of its revenues, while those in Turkey and Algeria accounted for 21% and 12% of revenues respectively.

Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Evergrande
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Lippo Karawaci
  5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…


Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact

By BOS Research

  • Established in 2002 by current Chairman Hussein Sajwani based on a predecessor company founded in 1992, Damac Real Estate Development Company (Damac) is a property developer focused primarily on the high-end residential segment (apartments and villas).
  • Since inception, the company has delivered approximately 17,900 units as of 31 December 2016, of which 90% were in Dubai.
  • Of the company’s roughly 44,000 units currently in progress (and 62 million square feet development pipeline) and in planning stages, roughly 96% are in the UAE with the remainder in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon and Iraq.

Eastman Chemical Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Eastman Chemical Company is a major player in the chemical industry.
  • The company has been facing the adverse effect of macroeconomic volatility and its top-line performance has been below-par despite the impact of price increases.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

MTN Group: FY16 Results:Disappointing, but Widely Expected

By BOS Research

  • MTN Group Limited (‘MTN’) is a Johannesburg (South Africa)-headquartered multinational mobile telecommunications company with a presence in 22 countries in Africa and the Middle East.
  • Apart from offering traditional voice and data services MTN also provides mobile financial services, business enterprise solutions and digital services.
  • MTN’s largest markets are Nigeria and South Africa which collectively contributed 63% and 68% to FY16 group revenues and EBITDA, respectively. 

Dow Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Dow Inc is a giant in the global chemicals industry and a material science leader providing customers with cutting-edge, eco-friendly packaging and infrastructure solutions.
  • The company is dealing with its fair share of challenges on account of slower GDP growth, complex energy markets, and client destocking.
  • The company proactively reduced operating rates to manage working capital, effectively implemented operational mitigation plans and cost-saving measures and lowered operating rates.

Cintas Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Cintas Corporation is a specialized provider of uniform rental services and has a leading market position in its domain.
  • The Uniform Rental and Facility Services operational segment, which is its core business, has been growing well, particularly through organic means although the company does carry out the occasional acquisition from time to time.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

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Daily Brief Financials: Burgan Bank, First Pacific Co, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities, Damac Properties Dubai Co, Malayan Banking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment
  • Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023
  • CVC Income & Growth – Equity-like return potential on senior secured debt
  • Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact
  • Maybank: Looking for Better 2H

Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment

By BOS Research

  • Burgan Bank is the second-largest commercial bank in Kuwait, with total assets of USD 24 billion as of December 2016, and it is the fourth largest bank in the country in terms of its locally based banking assets.
  • Kuwait Projects Co. (KIPCO), a preeminent Kuwaiti investment holding company controlled by the ruling family of Kuwait, owns 64.88% of Burgan Bank and has historically been supportive.
  • Thanks to its operations in Turkey, Iraq, Algeria, and Tunisia, the bank enjoys a geographically welldiversified revenue base. The Kuwaiti operations represented 59% of its revenues, while those in Turkey and Algeria accounted for 21% and 12% of revenues respectively.

Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Evergrande
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Lippo Karawaci
  5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…


CVC Income & Growth – Equity-like return potential on senior secured debt

By Edison Investment Research

FY22 was the first year since its inception that CVC Income & Growth (CVC IG) saw a negative NAV total return (TR). Its euro and sterling share classes produced NAV total negative returns of c 8.3% and 6.8%, respectively, which compares with 3.3% and 1.9% negative TRs by the Credit Suisse Western European Leveraged Loan Index (CS WELLI) in euro and sterling terms, respectively. This was primarily the result of downward mark-to-market valuation adjustments (resulting in unrealised losses for CVC IG), driven by price declines in the European loan market amid higher risk aversion. Meanwhile, defaults in the European loan market remained low at 0.4% in 2022, based on the Morningstar European Leveraged Loan Index (with no defaults in CVC IG’s portfolio). Subsequently, European loan markets rebounded strongly in January and February 2023, leading to 6.7% and 6.9% returns for CVC IG’s euro and sterling share classes, respectively (therefore allowing CVC IG to almost fully recoup the 2022 loss).


Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact

By BOS Research

  • Established in 2002 by current Chairman Hussein Sajwani based on a predecessor company founded in 1992, Damac Real Estate Development Company (Damac) is a property developer focused primarily on the high-end residential segment (apartments and villas).
  • Since inception, the company has delivered approximately 17,900 units as of 31 December 2016, of which 90% were in Dubai.
  • Of the company’s roughly 44,000 units currently in progress (and 62 million square feet development pipeline) and in planning stages, roughly 96% are in the UAE with the remainder in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon and Iraq.

Maybank: Looking for Better 2H

By BOS Research

  • 1H18 net profit of MYR3.83bn grew 14% yoy, driven by higher interest income growth and continued cost management. Interim dividend of 25 sen consisting of 15 sen cash portion and 10 sen electable portion.
  • Group gross impaired loans ratio picked up in 2Q largely due to deterioration in Singapore corporate book (classified Hyflux group exposure of MYR1.95bn as impaired and provisioned ~RM315.1mn in 2Q).
  • Fair value reduced to MYR11 implying 1.6x p/b. FY18 targets were maintained. Focus ahead on continued costs controls and margins after taking cautious approach on liquidity in 1H.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Jasa Marga (Persero) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • JSMR: Decent 1H18, Overhang Remains

JSMR: Decent 1H18, Overhang Remains

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 3% on higher toll revenue and operating margin expansion.
  • Longer term concerns remain, maintain IDR4,900 TP.
  • With 62% of Indonesia’s toll roads by length, JSMR offers exposure to Indonesia’s ongoing urbanisation and infrastructure spending plans. Near term, government intervention in toll tariffs will likely weigh on the stock.

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