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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

By Shawn Yang

  • Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. 
  • PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.
  • Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA, Tencent, AAC Technologies
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA, Tencent, AAC Technologies

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Aac Technologies (2018 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
  • We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
  • And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)

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Jan 07
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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup
  • Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

By Sanghyun Park

  • TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank’s stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
  • All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
  • Other notable targets are Hahn & Co’s Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners’ ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)‘s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
  • The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
  • The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Adoption of Digital Textbooks (Korea in 2025 & Japan in 2024) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Adoption of Digital Textbooks (Korea in 2025 & Japan in 2024)
  • STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle
  • IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break
  • KTC – The Quiet
  • NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance
  • Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In
  • Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue
  • MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

Adoption of Digital Textbooks (Korea in 2025 & Japan in 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean Department of Education announced on 5 January that Korea will start to adopt customized digital school textbooks starting 2025.
  • These 11 Korean stocks that are well positioned to capitalize on the digital textbooks are up on average 5.3% YTD, strongly outperforming KOSPI which is up 2.4% YTD.
  • Japan is implementing the adoption of digital textbooks in elementary, junior, and high schools starting in 2024, ahead of Korea.

STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle

By Alexis Dwek

  • New technologies such as 5G, 3D, Time of Flight and new materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride have paved the way for the Company’s long-term growth
  • The semis market should reach trough in H1 2023; the low point in share prices is generally a few months before the semis market itself reaches the bottom
  • Valuation is appealing at these levels. Discount to peers. Upside potential is over 50%

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

By Eric Chen

  • Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
  • We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
  • With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.

KTC – The Quiet

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Quietly KTC has seen its bad loans and credit costs rise
  • During last year it saw a final surge in credit costs in the last quarter
  • Market share losses and regulatory risk may continue to pressure its 5x PB

NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP net income will be in line/12% vs cons. Our 2023’s revenue/non-GAAP net income are in line/12% vs cons.
  • In 4Q22, several of NetEase’s mid-tier games saw declines in ranking.  We expect that NetEase will have a period of single digit growth in revenue.
  • We still rate NetEase BUY and raise TP to US$ 87. But NetEase is not our top pick within China internet space.

Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • The company’s year-over-year revenue has surged by more than 1.98x.
  • Carnival remains far adrift from its midpoint profit margins and has a sizeable corporate bond to service.
  • A residual income valuation model places a fair value of $9.91 on the stock, placing it in fair value territory.

Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.
  • The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.
  • The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.

MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Are you interested in consumer cyclical and industrial stocks while being worried about the macroeconomic outlook? Well, if you are, then MasterCraft (NASDAQ:MCFT) should be on your watchlist.
  • MasterCraft could part itself from the rest of the consumer cyclical segment during a trying macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s Veblen good status and low debt burden could protect one’s portfolio against macro headwinds.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: China Watch – Reopening; Here’s How to Play It and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Watch – Reopening; Here’s How to Play It
  • CX Daily: China’s Railway Investment Falls for a Third Straight Year
  • EA: Germany Pays for Dec-22 Disinflation

China Watch – Reopening; Here’s How to Play It

By Andreas Steno

  • China is de facto reopening by now as we rightfully forecasted a few months back.
  • But is a reopening equal to good news straight away? Not necessarily.
  • Here is our macro playbook for the grand Chinese reopening.

CX Daily: China’s Railway Investment Falls for a Third Straight Year

By Caixin Global

  • Railway / China’s railway investment falls for a third straight year

  • Covid-19 / China to end quarantine for travelers from Hong Kong to the mainland

  • Academic fraud / China punishes dozens for academic fraud at medical universities

EA: Germany Pays for Dec-22 Disinflation

By Phil Rush

  • Flash EA inflation in Dec-22 confirmed last month’s break of the upwards trend with another substantial surprise. Germany paying its citizens’ utility bills drove the drop. 
  • Energy and food prices were weaker than expected more broadly too. However, core pressures often surprised already-raised forecasts to the upside. 
  • Further slowing in headline inflation is likely, despite a Jan-23 normalisation in German utility bills. The ECB will maintain its hawkish focus on excessive underlying pressures.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Credit: Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: ABM Investama and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief India: ABM Investama, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 07
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intouch Holdings, iQIYI Inc, STMicroelectronics NV, NetEase Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances
  • IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break
  • STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle
  • NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance
  • Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)‘s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
  • The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
  • The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

By Eric Chen

  • Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
  • We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
  • With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.

STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle

By Alexis Dwek

  • New technologies such as 5G, 3D, Time of Flight and new materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride have paved the way for the Company’s long-term growth
  • The semis market should reach trough in H1 2023; the low point in share prices is generally a few months before the semis market itself reaches the bottom
  • Valuation is appealing at these levels. Discount to peers. Upside potential is over 50%

NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP net income will be in line/12% vs cons. Our 2023’s revenue/non-GAAP net income are in line/12% vs cons.
  • In 4Q22, several of NetEase’s mid-tier games saw declines in ranking.  We expect that NetEase will have a period of single digit growth in revenue.
  • We still rate NetEase BUY and raise TP to US$ 87. But NetEase is not our top pick within China internet space.

Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although Fujitec’s corporate governance framework has improved in places, the Statutory Auditor and Nominating Committee aren’t functioning, and the Board of Directors with a majority of independent directors isn’t functioning.
  • METI survey shows that 20% of independent directors are friends of CEO, a glimpse of how companies expect independent outside directors to play a role in endorsing executive management policies.
  • With several revisions of Corporate Governance Code, companies have ostensibly made steady progress in corporate governance efforts. However, whether this has been accompanied by substance varies from company to company.

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