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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index and Tencent

Hang Seng Index and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Holiday Volume and excessive price actions make market analysis less than helpful. HSI daily shares traded volume on 21st was the lowest year to date.
  • Thursday saw a pick-up in volume. Word on easing Covid restrictions for international travelers, reopening HK-China Border in January, and a higher close in the US market brought outsized gains.
  • The stock was up 4.12% and had the heaviest volume on HKEX on the 22nd, yet the stock volume was well below 21 days’ average volume.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief ECM: Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Citigroup, JP Morgan, Kotak, and Nomura.
  • Indegene is a digital commercialisation firm focused exclusively on the global life sciences industry.
  • Its solutions enable biopharmaceutical, emerging biotech and medical devices companies to develop, launch and drive sales for their products in a more efficient manner.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023
  • Investment Maxims Are Not One-Size-Fits-All

Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

By Victor Galliano

  • We stick with our core theme for exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we head into 2023
  • We identify four relative value opportunities in exchanges; HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams
  • We stick with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid, in our view; its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions, and recent events highlight counterparty risk

Investment Maxims Are Not One-Size-Fits-All

By Investment Talk

  • “Of course that’s your contention. You’re a first-year investor.
  • You just got finished reading some deep value historian, Ben Graham probably, you’re gonna be convinced of net-nets until next month when you get to Warren Buffett, then you’re gonna be talking about how Graham’s ideas are antiquated and that you simply have to buy and hold quality, letting time arbitrage do its thing.
  • That’s gonna last until next year, you’re gonna be in here regurgitating Fisher and Lynch, talkin’ about, you know, the importance of placing more emphasis on qualitative analysis in your investment process

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. China South City
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Strict Rules at Home Push Chinese Metaverse Entrepreneurs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Strict Rules at Home Push Chinese Metaverse Entrepreneurs, Investors Overseas
  • New Rules for Mandatory M&A Offers in Korea: Woefully Below Global Standards But Better Than Current

CX Daily: Strict Rules at Home Push Chinese Metaverse Entrepreneurs, Investors Overseas

By Caixin Global

  • Metaverse /: Strict rules at home push Chinese metaverse entrepreneurs, investors overseas
  • Covid-19 /: Expert confirms not all Covid deaths will be included in official tally
  • Economy /: World Bank cuts China growth forecasts on property slump, reopening complications

New Rules for Mandatory M&A Offers in Korea: Woefully Below Global Standards But Better Than Current

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean financial regulators announced major changes to the mandatory M&A offers in Korea. These changes are among the most significant in Korea in the past three decades.
  • We believe that these changes still remain woefully below global, advanced countries’ standards. However, they are better than the current M&A rules in Korea.
  • Therefore, we believe these changes will have a positive impact on the Korea M&A market in the next several years, but there could be further improvements to the revised standards. 

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023? and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?
  • Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto

Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?

By Smartkarma Research

Is there still hope for Crypto in 2023? In the next webinar, we speak with Insight Provider Edward Wu on just that, as he shares with us the landscape of the Crypto industry in 2023. From the problems with the current crypto industry, to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, Edward will share with us his thoughts in this next episode of our Webinar Wednesdays. Have any burning questions about Crypto, DeFi trading or Ethereum Layer 2 solutions? Get them answered in the live Q&A that will conclude the session. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 4 January 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Edward Wu is an experienced financial professional with strong research experience in macroeconomics, credit as well as corporate banking. He is a true believer in the future of Crypto/DeFi and foresee widely adoption of tokenization of real-world assets. He is currently actively researching in the crypto field, mainly focused on DeFi, DAO governance, and tokenomic design.

Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto

By Kaiko

  • Some people think of crypto as purely an investment opportunity. A highly volatile asset class that comes with risk, but eventually the returns will be worth it.
  • However, this perception is somewhat naive, as it ignores one of crypto’s biggest use cases: financial freedom.
  • The concept of financial freedom is hard to grasp for the privileged of us living in Europe or the US – despite record levels of inflation, we are not financially oppressed, and we can bank on our savings being relatively intact next year.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects
  • Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer
  • Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion
  • Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima
  • OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25
  • Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024
  • MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE
  • EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio

BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).
  • All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. 
  • Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil & Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.

Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only

By Travis Lundy

  • In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
  • The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
  • Swire had been buying both every day. But they’ve been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
  • The revised tender offer’s primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
  • The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board’s ability to enhance value.

Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

By Arun George

  • Conexio Corp (9422 JP) has recommended Nojima Corp (7419 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,911 per share, an 59.1% premium to the undisturbed price (22 December).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer was set in motion due to Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s desire to exit. Itochu tendering its 60.34% stake and an attractive offer, suggests a done deal. 

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

By Arun George

  • OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
  • The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
  • The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024

By Sanghyun Park

  • The all-inclusive CGT will be implemented in 2025. The current partial capital gains tax will be maintained until 2024. And the STT will drop from 0.23% to 0.15% in 2024.
  • The critical cause of an arb opportunity on ex-date price correction+dividend yield has been the yearend selling flow on T-1 ex-date for the purpose of tax avoidance by majority shareholders.
  • So, from this year to 2024, we should keep an eye on this arbitrage opportunity, which will continue to arise.

MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE

By Robert Sassoon

  • We think that a ~40% spread overstates the risk of this deal not moving to completion. 
  • The horizontal integration aspects of this transaction can be remedied, but this is a largely vertical merger transaction which regulators may struggle to prove will lead to monopolistic behavior.
  • Even if the  ICE merger is ultimately blocked,  BKI has other supporting factors that could drive upside – an attractive valuation and a potential revival of interest from other parties 

EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have continued to outperform versus other global markets
  • The HSI Index 200dma has proved to be a barrier to the upside
  • We evaluate the call ratio we suggested in November and recommend action

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings
  • Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Joining SET50, Could Open Up Rare Rel Valuation Level
  • Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain
  • Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • One of our routine channels is suggesting the possibility of some of Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) ‘s Scorpio-N bookings being fake.
  • This channel (an online auto forum) has been a trusted source of information followed by various industry veterans including the company’s chairman.
  • While the rationalisation of fake bookings as a recent industry practice could solace some, the fallacy of the bookings narrative only gets stronger. 

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
  • MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
  • Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.
  • Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.
  • Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Joining SET50, Could Open Up Rare Rel Valuation Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand will be joining the Thailand SET50 Index, as was predicted by Brian Freitas here on Smartkarma.
  • The “Illogical” valuation is back — Delta Taiwan trades as a smaller company despite being a substantially larger franchise.
  • Opportunity — Index-Related buying of Delta Thailand could open up one of the most historically extreme relative valuations for Delta Taiwan.

Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain

By Kevin George

  • Micron Technology, Inc. reported fiscal Q1 2023 earnings and announced cost-cutting measures.
  • Macroeconomic trends are still a drag, according to the company.
  • The company also announced cost cutting measures for the next year’s fiscal year.

Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

By Kevin George

  • Splunk is stronger with Q3 earnings and guidance. The company is shadowed by takeover talk.
  • The company has a strong cloud market make it a buy. The firm is shadowing by takeover talks.
  • The firm has been in the news for more than two years.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Indegene Limited, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Citigroup, JP Morgan, Kotak, and Nomura.
  • Indegene is a digital commercialisation firm focused exclusively on the global life sciences industry.
  • Its solutions enable biopharmaceutical, emerging biotech and medical devices companies to develop, launch and drive sales for their products in a more efficient manner.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
  • MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
  • Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Conexio Corp, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Black Knight Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Delta Electronics, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Micron Technology, Splunk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima
  • Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables
  • MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Joining SET50, Could Open Up Rare Rel Valuation Level
  • EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio
  • Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain
  • Hang Seng Index and Tencent
  • Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

By Arun George

  • Conexio Corp (9422 JP) has recommended Nojima Corp (7419 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,911 per share, an 59.1% premium to the undisturbed price (22 December).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer was set in motion due to Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s desire to exit. Itochu tendering its 60.34% stake and an attractive offer, suggests a done deal. 

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE

By Robert Sassoon

  • We think that a ~40% spread overstates the risk of this deal not moving to completion. 
  • The horizontal integration aspects of this transaction can be remedied, but this is a largely vertical merger transaction which regulators may struggle to prove will lead to monopolistic behavior.
  • Even if the  ICE merger is ultimately blocked,  BKI has other supporting factors that could drive upside – an attractive valuation and a potential revival of interest from other parties 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.
  • Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.
  • Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Joining SET50, Could Open Up Rare Rel Valuation Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand will be joining the Thailand SET50 Index, as was predicted by Brian Freitas here on Smartkarma.
  • The “Illogical” valuation is back — Delta Taiwan trades as a smaller company despite being a substantially larger franchise.
  • Opportunity — Index-Related buying of Delta Thailand could open up one of the most historically extreme relative valuations for Delta Taiwan.

EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have continued to outperform versus other global markets
  • The HSI Index 200dma has proved to be a barrier to the upside
  • We evaluate the call ratio we suggested in November and recommend action

Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain

By Kevin George

  • Micron Technology, Inc. reported fiscal Q1 2023 earnings and announced cost-cutting measures.
  • Macroeconomic trends are still a drag, according to the company.
  • The company also announced cost cutting measures for the next year’s fiscal year.

Hang Seng Index and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Holiday Volume and excessive price actions make market analysis less than helpful. HSI daily shares traded volume on 21st was the lowest year to date.
  • Thursday saw a pick-up in volume. Word on easing Covid restrictions for international travelers, reopening HK-China Border in January, and a higher close in the US market brought outsized gains.
  • The stock was up 4.12% and had the heaviest volume on HKEX on the 22nd, yet the stock volume was well below 21 days’ average volume.

Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

By Kevin George

  • Splunk is stronger with Q3 earnings and guidance. The company is shadowed by takeover talk.
  • The company has a strong cloud market make it a buy. The firm is shadowing by takeover talks.
  • The firm has been in the news for more than two years.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free