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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Blibli and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

By Sumeet Singh

  • PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.
  • BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief India: Five Star Business Finance, Etfs Reliance India Nifty 50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Five-Star Business IPO – RHP Updates and Peer Comparion
  • Market Correction: An Opportunity in Disguise

Five-Star Business IPO – RHP Updates and Peer Comparion

By Sumeet Singh

  • Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN) is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
  • In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and undertake a peer comparison.

Market Correction: An Opportunity in Disguise

By Private Investor

  • Equity markets have been under a correction phase for more a year now; Nifty topped out in Oct’21 and is now back to near highs.
  • In fact, last month’s close was an all time high close for Nifty on a monthly basis and 1st ever close above 18000 levels.
  • Though such market corrections are not good from the return’s perspective, but they play a very important role.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Natural Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • The Commodity Report #76

The Commodity Report #76

By The Commodity Report

  • Manufacturing Sentiment in the US continues to decline. US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low.
  • As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so, according to our leading indicators.
  • By now, there is quite a divergence in industrial production in general. We expect industrial production to crash over the next few months, which will continue to be a nasty factor for commodity demand.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Crypto: FTT/FTX- Another Inflection Point in the Crypto Market Waiting to Happen? and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTT/FTX- Another Inflection Point in the Crypto Market Waiting to Happen?
  • GMX – A DeFi Real Yield Protocol
  • FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test

FTT/FTX- Another Inflection Point in the Crypto Market Waiting to Happen?

By Rose Choy

  • On Nov 3, it was leaked that Alameda seemed to have a weaker than expected balance sheet with $7.6 bn of loans and a relatively illiquid portfolio of assets.
  • Alameda, a large proprietary crypto trading firm, did not officially comment but its CEO Caroline stated on Twitter that most of the loans were repaid. 
  • The potential linkages between Alameda and FTX, a large crytpo exchange, both controlled by Sam Bankman-Fried, are of utmost concern and has riled the crytpo market.

GMX – A DeFi Real Yield Protocol

By Edward Wu

  • GMX is a decentralized spot and perpetual exchange on the Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution Arbitrum.
  • This protocol is absolutely a shining star in today’s market. Token price, TVL, and transaction volume are all in an upward trend.
  • It is also labeled as one of the best “Real Yield” opportunities for Liquidity Providers.

FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: For the first time since April, Lido staked ether (stETH) now trades at parity with ETH.
  • Market Liquidity: Coinbase reported lower than expected earnings due to a continued rout in trade volume.
  • Derivatives: ETH perpetual futures volume is now higher than BTC volumes as traders pounce at renewed volatility.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Pilbara Minerals, Eagle Cement Corp, GrafTech International Ltd, Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Australia Nov SAIR: Significant Pre-Positioning on the Potential Deletes
  • Eagle Cement (EAGLE PM) MTO Open, Closing on 5 December
  • Graftech: Operational Issues Plague Thesis
  • Copper Long Needs USD to Break Lower

MSCI Australia Nov SAIR: Significant Pre-Positioning on the Potential Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • We see two inclusions and two exclusions for the MSCI Australia Index at the November SAIR. Passive trackers will need to trade between 5-8x ADV on the stocks.
  • Cumulative excess volume on the stocks has been increasing steadily over the last few months, indicating a fair amount of pre-positioning.
  • Short interest on the potential deletions has spiked over the last couple of months and pre-positioning could be close to (or larger than) the estimated passive selling.

Eagle Cement (EAGLE PM) MTO Open, Closing on 5 December

By Arun George

  • The MTO in relation to San Miguel (SMC PM)’s acquisition of 88.50% of Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)’s shares is open. The MTO will end on 5 December. 
  • The MTO price is PHP22.02. The net MTO price after deducting the selling charges (0.621% of value) is estimated to be PHP21.8833. 
  • At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to the net MTO price is 1.8% and 19.2%, respectively.

Graftech: Operational Issues Plague Thesis

By Sameer Taneja

  • GrafTech International Ltd (EAF US) thesis has taken a turn for the worse with the suspension of the operations in Mexico (impact 50% of production in Q4 2022/H1 2023). 
  • The negotiations of LTA pricing ( based on spot pricing ) in the near term also prove to be a headwind, with spot prices 40% below the contract. 
  • At 7.3x PE FY23 (earnings down 60% YoY), the stock price reflects these challenges. The recovery for the company to normalized cash flow levels will take much longer.

Copper Long Needs USD to Break Lower

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Copper’s bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems a bit early still.
  • Gold trendline and price pivot at 1,700 the key level to clear or will retest the 1,620 triple lows. 
  • DXY to rally off of 110 support within the triangle range and will see metals pullback. Bigger picture needs a break below 109.50 (bearish) to overlay with metals.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer
  • KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles
  • Sunwoda Electronic GDR Listing – Better Track Record than Peers. Discount Also Inline with Average

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei Asia reports that JIP has submitted a formal proposal to privatise Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) for about JPY2.2 trillion (US$15 billion) based on “Toshiba’s current share price.” 
  • JIP’s offer is below expectations of around a JPY6,000 bid which is likely driven by the inability to secure sufficient debt financing. JIP remains in negotiations with banks. 
  • While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers’ current price ratio is attractive. 

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced earnings, lower-than-consensus guidance and a ¥100bn buyback via ToSTNeT-3 this week, and on market if not filled via ToSTNeT-3.
  • The stock fell 5+%. I wrote I thought it was a buy and that the buyback was “game-able.” It rose 10+% from then til now. 
  • That was the fun. Now we get the games. Positioning strategy matters. 

Sunwoda Electronic GDR Listing – Better Track Record than Peers. Discount Also Inline with Average

By Clarence Chu

  • Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A (300207 CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are GS and UBS.
  • The firm is offering 19.6m GDRs (1 GDR to 5 A-shares) for sale at a 12.3-16.1% discount to last close. 
  • The deal would represent 3.4 days of three month ADV and 4.8% of the firm’s current mcap.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AEM, Blibli, HPSP, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Coupang, Internet Initiative Japan, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Ethereum, Apple, Mastercard and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook
  • BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower
  • Shorting Setup on Additions to KS200/KQ150 with KODEX Battery ETF Flow
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing
  • Coupang: Market Share Loss Likely Due to Launch of Naver’s 24 Hours Next Day Delivery Service
  • Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co’s Factory Purchase
  • FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test
  • Apple Inc.: Latest Updates
  • Mastercard Inc.: The Crypto Source Program & Other Drivers

AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM reported its best PBT 3Q and 9M22 results ever, yet investors remain skeptical of its FY23 outlook
  • Management reiterated guidance and provided a bullish statement about the coming years
  • AEM EPS likely to reach at least 0.42 SGD leaving the stock trading at only 7.8x P/E FY22 

BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

By Sumeet Singh

  • PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.
  • BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Shorting Setup on Additions to KS200/KQ150 with KODEX Battery ETF Flow

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s partial short-selling system, implemented in May last year, created a new trading pattern, a surge in short selling for new additions, immediately after index rebalancing.
  • Canaria Bio, HPSP, and SungEel Hitech are highly likely to be the primary targets for short selling, but there is one more thing we need to consider.
  • KODEX will likely begin rebalancing buying on HPSP and SungEel on December 9, the same day the short-selling starts for them. So, we need a more flexible setup.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • TSM US has declined 35% since mid-August 2022 and 59% from its January 2022 peak. 
  • A new 2022 low of 59.43 was produced on Thursday 3 November amid extreme bullish ST momentum failure.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-8% upside in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Coupang: Market Share Loss Likely Due to Launch of Naver’s 24 Hours Next Day Delivery Service

By Douglas Kim

  • In December 2022, Naver plans to launch its long awaited 24 hours delivery service (Naver Arrival Guarantee Solution), competing directly against Coupang’s “rocket delivery” services in Korea.
  • Coupang’s valuations are not attractive at current levels and the heightened competition in the 24 hour delivery service market from Naver/CJ Logistics is likely to negatively impact Coupang. 
  • By providing 24 hours quick delivery service, Naver is expected to take away market share from Coupang from the fast delivery services in Korea.

Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth

By Kirk Boodry

  • Internet Initiative Japan (3774 JP) posted solid Q2 results with the best quarterly revenue growth since 2016 and a 12th consecutive quarter of margin expansion
  • Results were driven by growth tailwinds for corporate digitization which was also visible in KDDI/Softbank results as well as a recovery in mobile which was not
  • The company did not raise its full-year financial guidance despite an H1 beat but forecasts looks increasingly conservative

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co’s Factory Purchase

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)  announced today that it will invest up to US$170m into Lordstown Motors Corp (RIDE US).
  • The deal represents favorable terms for Hon Hai in our view, given the conversion price of preferred shares involved in the deal and the after-market price for Lordstown shares.
  • Germany is expected to block a chip facility acquisition by Navtech Inc/China (300456 CH); Alibaba and Biren are slowing chip speeds due to U.S. curbs; Lithuan-Taiwan chip partnership.

FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: For the first time since April, Lido staked ether (stETH) now trades at parity with ETH.
  • Market Liquidity: Coinbase reported lower than expected earnings due to a continued rout in trade volume.
  • Derivatives: ETH perpetual futures volume is now higher than BTC volumes as traders pounce at renewed volatility.

Apple Inc.: Latest Updates

By Baptista Research

  • Apple has been correcting along with broader markets and the company’s performance has also been hit by the Covid-19 outbreak in the Foxconn unit in China that produces iPhones.
  • The company’s results were fairly good and it surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings with a good performance from iPhone, accessories, home, and wearables.
  • Apple continues to grow its platform quite well in emerging markets with quite strong growth in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and India.

Mastercard Inc.: The Crypto Source Program & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • With the backdrop of cross-border travel continuing to improve and consumer expenditure remaining resilient, Mastercard delivered strong earnings and revenue growth in its latest result.
  • Mastercard has expanded with gaming payouts, thus launching its Gaming Fast payout program.
  • For addressing domestic, cross-border, and account-to-account payments, it has signed an agreement with leading worldwide B2B solutions and networks, Pagero.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Financials: Five Star Business Finance, FTX Token, GMX, Etfs Reliance India Nifty 50, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Five-Star Business IPO – RHP Updates and Peer Comparion
  • FTT/FTX- Another Inflection Point in the Crypto Market Waiting to Happen?
  • GMX – A DeFi Real Yield Protocol
  • Market Correction: An Opportunity in Disguise
  • Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Times China

Five-Star Business IPO – RHP Updates and Peer Comparion

By Sumeet Singh

  • Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN) is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
  • In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and undertake a peer comparison.

FTT/FTX- Another Inflection Point in the Crypto Market Waiting to Happen?

By Rose Choy

  • On Nov 3, it was leaked that Alameda seemed to have a weaker than expected balance sheet with $7.6 bn of loans and a relatively illiquid portfolio of assets.
  • Alameda, a large proprietary crypto trading firm, did not officially comment but its CEO Caroline stated on Twitter that most of the loans were repaid. 
  • The potential linkages between Alameda and FTX, a large crytpo exchange, both controlled by Sam Bankman-Fried, are of utmost concern and has riled the crytpo market.

GMX – A DeFi Real Yield Protocol

By Edward Wu

  • GMX is a decentralized spot and perpetual exchange on the Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution Arbitrum.
  • This protocol is absolutely a shining star in today’s market. Token price, TVL, and transaction volume are all in an upward trend.
  • It is also labeled as one of the best “Real Yield” opportunities for Liquidity Providers.

Market Correction: An Opportunity in Disguise

By Private Investor

  • Equity markets have been under a correction phase for more a year now; Nifty topped out in Oct’21 and is now back to near highs.
  • In fact, last month’s close was an all time high close for Nifty on a monthly basis and 1st ever close above 18000 levels.
  • Though such market corrections are not good from the return’s perspective, but they play a very important role.

Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Times China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer
  • KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles
  • Sunwoda Electronic GDR Listing – Better Track Record than Peers. Discount Also Inline with Average

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei Asia reports that JIP has submitted a formal proposal to privatise Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) for about JPY2.2 trillion (US$15 billion) based on “Toshiba’s current share price.” 
  • JIP’s offer is below expectations of around a JPY6,000 bid which is likely driven by the inability to secure sufficient debt financing. JIP remains in negotiations with banks. 
  • While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers’ current price ratio is attractive. 

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced earnings, lower-than-consensus guidance and a ¥100bn buyback via ToSTNeT-3 this week, and on market if not filled via ToSTNeT-3.
  • The stock fell 5+%. I wrote I thought it was a buy and that the buyback was “game-able.” It rose 10+% from then til now. 
  • That was the fun. Now we get the games. Positioning strategy matters. 

Sunwoda Electronic GDR Listing – Better Track Record than Peers. Discount Also Inline with Average

By Clarence Chu

  • Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A (300207 CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are GS and UBS.
  • The firm is offering 19.6m GDRs (1 GDR to 5 A-shares) for sale at a 12.3-16.1% discount to last close. 
  • The deal would represent 3.4 days of three month ADV and 4.8% of the firm’s current mcap.

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Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Swedish Match AB, Reach, I-Tail and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Offer Becomes Unconditional
  • National World/Reach: Possible Offer
  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bear Case
  • I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison Update – Adding in Its Only Local Peer

Offer Becomes Unconditional

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PMI has obtained acceptances of 82.59%, waives the 90% acceptance condition and extends the acceptance period until 25 November (settlement on 2 December).
  • SWMA shares are trading at an all-time high of SEK 115.8. Gross spread is 0.17% (estimated annual return is 2.52%). The market discounts that the offer will be successful.
  • Done deal. PMI is ready to wait until claiming final victory, quite possibly in the further extended acceptance period. It should be able to squeeze-out and delist. Accept offer.

National World/Reach: Possible Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • SPAC National World confirmed that it is at the early stages of exploring a possible offer for UK’s largest local publisher Reach (RCH LN), whose share price had dropped 64% YTD.
  • The approach comes when Reach seems to be turning a corner and digital is growing, more specifically data-led initiatives. The top ten shareholders own 61% of the share capital.
  • A good offer should be tabled to convince the suffering top ten shareholders (61% in aggregate). My TP is 163.4p (comparables/DCF). The shares are trading at 4.0x NTM P/E.

I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • I-Tail (ITC TB), Thai Union Group (TU TB)’s pet care division, has started pre-marketing an up to US$600 million SET IPO, according to press reports.
  • In I-Tail Corporation IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on its under-representation in the dog food category (largest pet food category), margins at or near the peak and declining FCF margin. 

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison Update – Adding in Its Only Local Peer

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$500m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB) .
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will add in its recently listed local peer.

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