Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) – About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from “dependence on generic drugs” to “innovation-driven drugs”.
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance.

Kanzhun HK Secondary Listing – Re-IPO but Needs to Correct or Offer a Wider Discount

Kanzhun (BZ US) plans to raise around US$300m via a public offering for its H-shares.
We have covered the company since its listing, links to our prior notes are below.
In this note, we’ll talk about the deal dynamics and structure.

ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, in a busy listing week, the results from listing were mixed.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options
VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.

VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

By David Blennerhassett

VIG Partners, a PE-outfit, is seeking to delist VIOL (335890 KS), an aesthetic medical devices manufacturer, whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
VIG first acquired 7% of DMS (068790 KS)’s 34.76% controlling stake in VIOL, following which, DMS contributed the remaining 27.76% in-kind to VIG’s SPV at a valuation of ₩12,500/share.
VIG’s SPV’s tender offer launched on 18th June, also at ₩12,500/share, and runs until the 7th July 7. The Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance threshold of 20.76%.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?
Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25
Samsung F&M (000815 KS) Vs. Woori (316140 KS): No Mean Reversion (Yet), Time to Reassess the Pair
UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target
PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025
Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level; Record Short Interest in Local
UMC: +1.1% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium to Short
ASE: +2.9% Premium; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?

By Tina Banerjee

Monash IVF (MVF AU) announced that an incident occurred at its Brisbane clinic, where embryo of one patient was incorrectly transferred to another patient resulting in birth of a child.
The company revised the guidance of FY25 underlying NPAT to be A$27.5M from previous A$30M–31M, announced post H1FY25 results.
Consensus estimates predict the company’s FY26 revenue to grow marginally by 1% to A$272M and net profit to decline nearly 5%.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)‘s earnings rebounded solidly by 20.4% YoY in 2H FY25, fueled by higher client accounts and assets, and better HK market turnover.
BSS has been an underperformer against peers since May, as other brokerage companies rallied on the back of potential entry into the virtual asset dealing business.
Ant Financial will be able to transform BSS into a sizeable cross-asset house. The share price’s current implied earnings growth and PER valuations are conservative.

Samsung F&M (000815 KS) Vs. Woori (316140 KS): No Mean Reversion (Yet), Time to Reassess the Pair

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS) and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
Key Insights: The pair has not mean-reverted. This Insight discusses the use of a Stop Loss in a statistical pair trading context and why one might be considered at this point.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative strategies, this article demonstrates some of the mechanics of statistical arbitrage and which indicators can be used to decide on exiting a position.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Uco Bank (UCO IN) and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025

By FNArena

Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Over the last few years, Silvercorp has delivered steady revenue and earnings growth, supported by strong margins and consistent free cash flow.
It is now expanding beyond China with the development of the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador and ramping up investment at Ying and Kuanping.
Despite this growth visibility and a net cash balance sheet, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and FCF multiples.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Xiaomi Corp, Lens Technology , Kanzhun , Xero Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local
Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach
Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
Kanzhun HK Secondary Listing – Re-IPO but Needs to Correct or Offer a Wider Discount
ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level; Record Short Interest in Local
UMC: +1.1% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium to Short
ASE: +2.9% Premium; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach

By John Ley

Xiaomi surged to new all-time highs following its ecosystem launch and strong YU7 pre-order momentum.
We examine option market activity to assess what’s being priced and whether sentiment is getting ahead of itself.
Two option trade structures are outlined to reflect our findings.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Kanzhun HK Secondary Listing – Re-IPO but Needs to Correct or Offer a Wider Discount

Kanzhun (BZ US) plans to raise around US$300m via a public offering for its H-shares.
We have covered the company since its listing, links to our prior notes are below.
In this note, we’ll talk about the deal dynamics and structure.

ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, in a busy listing week, the results from listing were mixed.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Macro: Calm Before the Currency War? Central Banks Go Their Separate Ways and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Calm Before the Currency War? Central Banks Go Their Separate Ways
The Animal Spirits Are Back in Charge!
The Surprise Victor of the Israel-Iran War
LATAM: The Conviction Overweight in a Benchmark-Driven World
Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term
Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

Calm Before the Currency War? Central Banks Go Their Separate Ways

By Said Desaque

European central banks have embraced a more preemptive approach compared to the Fed in responding to the looming arrival of tariffs under the Trump administration.
The Bank of Japan refuses to raise interest rates, despite rising core consumer price inflation, due to uncertainty about tariff negotiations with the US. Quantitative tightening will pared in 2026.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has only modestly lowered policy rates. The Fed’s future policy rate cuts could determine the timing and scope of future PBoC policy easing.

The Animal Spirits Are Back in Charge!

By Cam Hui

The market’s animal spirits have taken control of the tape and U.S. equity prices appear to be headed for further highs.
Medium- and long-term indicators have improved sufficiently that we are upgrading our Trend Asset Allocation Model from neutral to bullish.
However, investors should monitor non-confirmation patterns from commodity prices that may be signs of signal reverse in the coming weeks.

The Surprise Victor of the Israel-Iran War

By Cam Hui

The surprise victor in the Israel-Iran conflict may be the bond market, which will exact a cost by imposing a fiscal discipline on the combatants.
Foreign policy objectives are likely to lead to a protracted and simmering conflict that raises an uncertainty premium on asset prices.
The markets experienced elevated levels of uncertainty and volatility under Trump 1.0, and we expect a similar environment under Trump 2.0.

LATAM: The Conviction Overweight in a Benchmark-Driven World

By Steven Holden

LATAM remains a core and consensus overweight among active EM managers, with 85% of funds positioned ahead of the MSCI EM benchmark
LATAM exposure is concentrated in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, which together make up 90% of the region’s allocation.
Banorte remains the most widely held stock in the region, with Embraer SA and Gentera staging notable recoveries from the low positioning levels seen in 2021 and 2022.

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.
The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term.
We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production.

Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce? to $95/ton
In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Health Care: Saint Bella, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Medtide, VIOL , Monash IVF, China Medical System and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update
VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?
Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) – About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Medtide raised HKD 514m (USD 65.5m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, June 30th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

VIOL (335890 KS): VIG Partners’ Tender Offer And DMS’ Strategic Exit

By David Blennerhassett

VIG Partners, a PE-outfit, is seeking to delist VIOL (335890 KS), an aesthetic medical devices manufacturer, whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
VIG first acquired 7% of DMS (068790 KS)’s 34.76% controlling stake in VIOL, following which, DMS contributed the remaining 27.76% in-kind to VIG’s SPV at a valuation of ₩12,500/share.
VIG’s SPV’s tender offer launched on 18th June, also at ₩12,500/share, and runs until the 7th July 7. The Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance threshold of 20.76%.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?

By Tina Banerjee

Monash IVF (MVF AU) announced that an incident occurred at its Brisbane clinic, where embryo of one patient was incorrectly transferred to another patient resulting in birth of a child.
The company revised the guidance of FY25 underlying NPAT to be A$27.5M from previous A$30M–31M, announced post H1FY25 results.
Consensus estimates predict the company’s FY26 revenue to grow marginally by 1% to A$272M and net profit to decline nearly 5%.

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) – About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from “dependence on generic drugs” to “innovation-driven drugs”.
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jun 30

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Copper, Iron Ore, Silvercorp Metals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term
Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels
Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.
The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term.
We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production.

Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce? to $95/ton
In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Over the last few years, Silvercorp has delivered steady revenue and earnings growth, supported by strong margins and consistent free cash flow.
It is now expanding beyond China with the development of the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador and ramping up investment at Ying and Kuanping.
Despite this growth visibility and a net cash balance sheet, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and FCF multiples.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 30

Daily Brief Financials: Hang Seng Index, China Construction Bank H, FWD Group Holdings, Banco De Sabadell SA, Bright Smart Securities And, Uco Bank, Woori Financial Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options
Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25
UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target
Samsung F&M (000815 KS) Vs. Woori (316140 KS): No Mean Reversion (Yet), Time to Reassess the Pair

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

By Nico Rosti

A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)‘s earnings rebounded solidly by 20.4% YoY in 2H FY25, fueled by higher client accounts and assets, and better HK market turnover.
BSS has been an underperformer against peers since May, as other brokerage companies rallied on the back of potential entry into the virtual asset dealing business.
Ant Financial will be able to transform BSS into a sizeable cross-asset house. The share price’s current implied earnings growth and PER valuations are conservative.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Uco Bank (UCO IN) and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Samsung F&M (000815 KS) Vs. Woori (316140 KS): No Mean Reversion (Yet), Time to Reassess the Pair

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS) and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
Key Insights: The pair has not mean-reverted. This Insight discusses the use of a Stop Loss in a statistical pair trading context and why one might be considered at this point.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative strategies, this article demonstrates some of the mechanics of statistical arbitrage and which indicators can be used to decide on exiting a position.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 30

Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Toyota Industries, Anjoy Foods Group, IFBH, BYD, PointsBet Holdings , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered
BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades Highlight Bearish Bias Among HK Option Traders
PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025
Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.

IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered

By Akshat Shah

IFBH (6603 HK) raised about US$148m in its HK IPO.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades Highlight Bearish Bias Among HK Option Traders

Context: Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: Diagonal Spreads continue to enjoy huge popularity. Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon of one month, and over 60% of strategies exhibit a bearish bias.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025

By FNArena

Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

Disclosure of Individual Board Directors’ Remuneration Has Not Progressed

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s unclear whether voluntary compensation committee can make proactive recommendations, or whether it simply follows the proposals of CEO/BOD, and how much the decisions of the voluntary committee are influential.
Only 0.1% of listed companies are disclosing the individual compensation of all board directors, as investors have long requested, and there has been no progress in disclosing individual compensation.
Performance-Based compensation is implemented by 72.7% of companies listed on the Prime Market. Recently, there has been an increase in the introduction of restricted stock in place of stock options.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 30

Most Read: Xero Ltd, FWD Group Holdings, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Gemvax & Kael, Toyota Industries, Saint Bella, HKBN Ltd, Santos Ltd, Anjoy Foods Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise

By Brian Freitas

Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

By Brian Freitas

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

By Sanghyun Park

67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.

Merger Arb Mondays (30 June) – Toyota Industries, Santos, Pointsbet, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction