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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest
  • DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation
  • Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation
  • The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels
  • China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position
  • [Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand
  • SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin means the brand portfolio strategy still works.
  • The financial potential is NOT as weak as the 2024 result looks.
  • We conclude an upside of 40% and a price target of HK$122 for the next twelve months.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • LHN Group intends to list Coliwoo Co-Living on SGX, expanding their presence in the real estate market.
  • C&W reports a significant 42% drop in office rents in Hong Kong, reflecting the changing landscape post-Q1 2019.
  • PGIM Real Estate promotes David Fassbender to Deputy Head of APAC, indicating a shift in leadership within the company.

Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS)’s share price has been moving higher on the back of higher dividends and a beneficiary of the potential economic co-operations between North and South Korea.
  • Hyundai Elevator currently has a dividend yield of 8%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among Korean companies with more than 2 trillion won in market cap.
  • There have been some initial discussions about increased economic co-operation between North and South Korea. Hyundai Elevator is a key beneficiary in such a scenario. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
  • ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares’ Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
  • CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs

DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation

By Punit Khanna

  • Stable and free cash flow generating business available at attractive price
  • Trades below book with double digit ROE and at Significant discount to its parent valuation
  • Priced towards low end of historical PE and P/B ( similar to COVID valuations)

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
  • What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
  • This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.     
  • Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
  • Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute. 

China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China East Education (667 HK) remains well-positioned in the government’s support of vocational education, despite its YTD outperformance.
  • Higher average tuition per student, better cost control, accelerating growth in the “Fashion and Beauty” segment,  and new course introduction are the main profit drivers.
  • Net cash equals 17.2% of the share price, while other peers are struggling with debt repayment. Coupled with stronger earnings CAGR, its premium PERs are justified.

[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
  • SLB has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
  • Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.

SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

By Rahul Jain

  • Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
  • Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
  • Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Australia: Northern Star Resources, Kina Securities Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
  • Kina Securities Meeting (KSL AU): A Papua New Guinea Commercial Bank.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

Kina Securities Meeting (KSL AU): A Papua New Guinea Commercial Bank.

By Michael Fritzell

  • Last week, I had the pleasure of meeting the senior management team of Kina Securities (KSL AU — US$193 million) — a Papua New Guinea- (“PNG”) based commercial bank listed on the ASX.

  • Participants included Kina Securities’ CEO Ivan Vidovich and CFO Johnson Kalo.

  • The bank trades at a modest P/E ratio of 8.2x with a dividend yield of 9.2%. While the share price has risen recently, it remains well below its all-time high in 2019.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Biologics , Hyundai Elevator Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • 4 Key Movers in TIGER Top 10 in June Reshuffle
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator

4 Key Movers in TIGER Top 10 in June Reshuffle

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s battery sector got wrecked, crushing POSCO and Samsung SDI’s caps. Shakeup incoming: Hanwha Aerospace locks in, and Samsung Biologics is also a strong contender.
  • Low pre-positioning leads to highly correlated moves on rebalance day; last June, KB and Shinhan got in while LG Chem and Energy got cut with similar impact, netting ~3% yield.
  • Given the track record, it makes sense to trim the holding window on rebalance day and deploy a long-short strategy.

Asian Dividend Gems: Hyundai Elevator

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS)’s share price has been moving higher on the back of higher dividends and a beneficiary of the potential economic co-operations between North and South Korea.
  • Hyundai Elevator currently has a dividend yield of 8%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among Korean companies with more than 2 trillion won in market cap.
  • There have been some initial discussions about increased economic co-operation between North and South Korea. Hyundai Elevator is a key beneficiary in such a scenario. 

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa
  • Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance

After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

By David Blennerhassett

Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Only 10,000 ha of 3.2 million ha smallholder plantations get STDB  
  • KoltiSkills trains around 6,000 smallholders in Indonesia  
  •  Olam Agri rolls out SNR in Lampang to empower smallholders

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Singtel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance
  • Institutional Investors Net Buy Telcos as STI Recovers 4.5% Over Five Sessions

Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Only 10,000 ha of 3.2 million ha smallholder plantations get STDB  
  • KoltiSkills trains around 6,000 smallholders in Indonesia  
  •  Olam Agri rolls out SNR in Lampang to empower smallholders

Institutional Investors Net Buy Telcos as STI Recovers 4.5% Over Five Sessions

By Geoff Howie

  • Singtel traded at S$3.65 on 16 April, marking its highest level since January 2017, with a 15.9% total return in 2025 year-to-date.
  • Institutions net sold S$145.5 million from STI Banks but net bought S$133 million in the rest of the market, with telecommunications seeing the highest inflow.
  • Singtel’s ST28 plan aims to enhance customer experiences and shareholder value, identifying S$6 billion in monetisable assets.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief China: Air China Ltd (A), Giant Biogene, Swire Pacific (A), Anta Sports Products, Goodman Group, China Resources Beverage, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, China East Education , Seazen Holdings , Manycore Tech and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way
  • Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • StubWorld: Swire Is “Rich” To Cathay; And Cathay “Cheap” To Air China
  • Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.
  • CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry
  • Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer
  • China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Manycore Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowed but Future Growth May Be Lower

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
  • We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

StubWorld: Swire Is “Rich” To Cathay; And Cathay “Cheap” To Air China

By David Blennerhassett

Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin means the brand portfolio strategy still works.
  • The financial potential is NOT as weak as the 2024 result looks.
  • We conclude an upside of 40% and a price target of HK$122 for the next twelve months.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Apr-2025): Singapore’s LHN Group wants SGX listing for Coliwoo Co-Living.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • LHN Group intends to list Coliwoo Co-Living on SGX, expanding their presence in the real estate market.
  • C&W reports a significant 42% drop in office rents in Hong Kong, reflecting the changing landscape post-Q1 2019.
  • PGIM Real Estate promotes David Fassbender to Deputy Head of APAC, indicating a shift in leadership within the company.

CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

By Arun George

  • China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.
  • At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.
  • The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.

Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 22 July 2024, waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)announced a pre-conditional Offer from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
  • On the 17th March 2025, all pre-conditions were (finally) satisfied. 
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 12th May, with payment on or before the 10th June. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable“.

China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China East Education (667 HK) remains well-positioned in the government’s support of vocational education, despite its YTD outperformance.
  • Higher average tuition per student, better cost control, accelerating growth in the “Fashion and Beauty” segment,  and new course introduction are the main profit drivers.
  • Net cash equals 17.2% of the share price, while other peers are struggling with debt repayment. Coupled with stronger earnings CAGR, its premium PERs are justified.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
  • In the US, the import price index slipped to negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.0% e / 0.2% revised p) in March. The index excludes tariff duties paid by importers to US Customs and Border Protection.
  • Long-end treasury yields fell for a second day, supported by Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender’s statements that officials are discussing easing the supplementary lending requirements to lower the costs of trading treasuries for banks.

Manycore Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowed but Future Growth May Be Lower

By Nicholas Tan

  • Manycore Tech (KOOL US)  is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Manycore (MC) is a fast-growing, disruptive design and visualization platform powered by artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and purpose-built graphic processing unit (GPU) clusters.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief United States: Chagee Holdings, NVIDIA Corp, Schlumberger Ltd, MetaVia, Mira Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban
  • [Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand
  • MTVA: Positive Phase 1 MAD Data for DA-1726 Excellent Tolerability Profile and Mean Day 26 Weight Loss of 4.3%
  • MIRA: Tests Show Positive Results

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
  • Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
  • The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

By Nico Rosti

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. 
  • The Trump Administration’s move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
  • Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.

[Earnings Preview] SLB Faces Downward Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Softening Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
  • SLB has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
  • Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.

MTVA: Positive Phase 1 MAD Data for DA-1726 Excellent Tolerability Profile and Mean Day 26 Weight Loss of 4.3%

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On April 15, 2025, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) announced positive results from the 4-week Phase 1 multiple ascending dose (MAD) trial of DA-1726 for the treatment of obesity.
  • The results showed a mean weight loss of 4.3% at Day 26 in the 32 mg dose with only mild gastrointestinal (GI) adverse events reported in 4/6 subjects, most of which resolved within 24 hours.
  • In addition, a mean reduction in waist circumference of 1.6 inches was demonstrated along with a mean lowering of -5.3 mg/dL in fasting blood glucose.

MIRA: Tests Show Positive Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief India: Gensol Engineering, SAMHI Hotels , Sandur Manganese & Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation
  • The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels
  • SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
  • What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
  • This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.     
  • Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
  • Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute. 

SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

By Rahul Jain

  • Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
  • Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
  • Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Japan: Rigaku Holdings, Wakita & Co Ltd, Money Forward , Tokyu Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Rigaku IPO Lockup – Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even
  • [Japan Activism] – Strategic Capital Shareholder Proposals to WAKITA (8125) And Their Response
  • Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown
  • Tokyu Revamps Retail Business
  • Activist Investors Will Focus Their Approach More on Whole Assets that Aren’t Being Used Effectively

Rigaku IPO Lockup – Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

[Japan Activism] – Strategic Capital Shareholder Proposals to WAKITA (8125) And Their Response

By Travis Lundy

  • Tsuyoshi Maruki’s Strategic Capital has gone after a number of cash-rich companies in the past. This is Year 5 going after Wakita & Co Ltd (8125 JP).
  • Wakita is cash-rich, and has been for years, but it is also asset-rich. The former CEO, after he retired, decided he wanted to play in real estate.
  • At the end of last month, Strategic Capital made proposals (English, Japanese) to Wakita. Again. Today, the company responded (only in Japanese). Time for more.

Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Money Forward (3994 JP) MF’s recent earnings was no surprise to us as we continued to highlight that the company’s business model is far inferior to its counterpart freee. 
  • The last 2-3 quarterly results have made that discrepancy clear and MF’s non-BO SaaS businesses are only dead weight and have helped conceal weaknesses of its business model.
  • MF’s share price is down 19.3% YTD and think the market has finally come to terms that MF is losing ground whereas freee has managed to turn around its profitability.

Tokyu Revamps Retail Business

By Michael Causton

  • Tokyu may have just sold off its Tokyu Plaza building in Ginza but it is continuing to invest in retail.
  • In particular, it will focus on newand upgraded retail facilities along the main Tokyu railway lines over the next decade,
  • To make this happen and improve efficiency, it will merge its retail businesses into a more efficient, centralised core this summer.

Activist Investors Will Focus Their Approach More on Whole Assets that Aren’t Being Used Effectively

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’ll be interesting on whether shareholder proposals will be passed in companies with larger market capitalization and larger institutional investor ownership, which will be the main battleground for activist investors.
  • There are so many companies that are not creating the value they should be, it is no wonder that any company becomes a target for activist investors.
  • As activist funds’ AUM grows, their approach is likely to focus more on overall assets that are not being used effectively, such as cash, real estate, equities, and non-core businesses.

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Apr 17
0

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Nick Scali Ltd, Midea Group, Fast Retailing, Nexchip Semiconductor , Horizon Robotics, Northern Star Resources, Air China Ltd (A), Chagee Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
  • Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
  • Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
  • CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
  • UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
  • Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement
  • De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

By Travis Lundy

  • In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
  • Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
  • But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

By Brian Freitas

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
  • Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
  • The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

By Brian Freitas

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

By Brian Freitas

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation

By Phil Rush

  • A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.
  • Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.
  • Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
  • Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
  • The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

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