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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 23
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Aster DM Healthcare Ltd, Biogen Inc, Tenet Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Cosette Pharma’s Binding Offer at A$7.40
  • 2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) Q3 Result- Margin Expansion Continues
  • Biogen Inc.: Expansion into Immunology & Rare Diseases Is Key Diversification Strategy But Will It Work?
  • Tenet Healthcare: USPI Resiliency & Growth Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating!

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Cosette Pharma’s Binding Offer at A$7.40

By Arun George

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Cosette Pharma at A$7.40 per share, a 36.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the two largest shareholders are supportive.  
  • The offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.8%/11.0%. 

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) Q3 Result- Margin Expansion Continues

By Tina Banerjee

  • Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported stellar performance in Q3FY25. Revenue achieved 11% YoY growth to INR10.5B, driven by increased patient volumes and growth in ARPOB. 
  • Consistent growth across core businesses, combined with strategic cost optimization, operational efficiencies, and optimized service mix, have significantly strengthened margins, with Q3FY25 operating EBITDA margins standing at 19.3% (Q3FY24: 17.7%).
  • Our original investment thesis is intact. Margin levers are working well. Expansion plan is on track. Macro trend is favorable. Merger with Quality Care can be a game changer.

Biogen Inc.: Expansion into Immunology & Rare Diseases Is Key Diversification Strategy But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Biogen Inc.’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results highlight a company in transition, balancing the challenges of competition in its core multiple sclerosis (MS) franchise while seeking growth avenues through new product launches and pipeline prioritization.
  • Biogen’s earnings call detailed their strategic focus on launching innovative treatments, optimizing their pipeline, and reshaping company operations to align with future growth opportunities.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Tenet Healthcare: USPI Resiliency & Growth Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • Tenet Healthcare’s performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year was marked by significant operational achievements and strategic transactions aimed at strengthening its financial posture and business flexibility.
  • The company reported net operating revenues of $20.7 billion with a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $4 billion for the year, reflecting a 13% increase over 2023 and an enhanced EBITDA margin of 19.3%.
  • This performance was buoyed by robust same-store revenue growth across its segments and disciplined cost management.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief ESG: Not Promptly Retiring Treasury Stock Has Increased the Market Cap of Japanese-Style Calculations and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Not Promptly Retiring Treasury Stock Has Increased the Market Cap of Japanese-Style Calculations

Not Promptly Retiring Treasury Stock Has Increased the Market Cap of Japanese-Style Calculations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The fact that few companies promptly retire treasury stock is the reason for the large gap between market capitalization including treasury stock and market capitalization calculated without including treasury stock.
  • It’s odd that EV/EBITDA of a company will be smaller after cancelling treasury shares than before, but this shouldn’t be too much trouble for institutional investors who analyze it closely.
  • Although this gap may widen for more companies as more cross-shareholdings will be bought back with treasury stock, the increase in share repurchases is a favorable development.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Toyota’s (7203 JP) Outlook and Profit Targets for Imminent Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota’s (7203 JP) Outlook and Profit Targets for Imminent Rally

Toyota’s (7203 JP) Outlook and Profit Targets for Imminent Rally

By Nico Rosti

  • Strong Financials: Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Q3 earnings estimates, forecasting ¥47T revenue for FY 2025, but revenue growth (3.15%) lags behind the industry average (11.93%).
  • Strategic Expansion: Investments in EV production, U.S. facility upgrades, and battery supply chain development reinforce Toyota’s long-term growth strategy.
  • Analyst Outlook: Despite modest revenue growth, Toyota’s strong financials and EV push support a potential stock rebound from recent lows. Our model supports a LONG trade
    anticipating an imminent rebound/rally.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We’ve been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
  • We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
  • With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Religare’s New Dawn: The Burman Family Takes Control and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Religare’s New Dawn: The Burman Family Takes Control
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: AI Monetization by How Much & At What Cost?
  • Royalty Pharma: These Are The Major Shifts That Could Redefine Biopharma Royalties!
  • Confluent Inc.: Expanding Product Offerings To Possibly Disrupt the Market!
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Feb-2025): SK Hynix CEO optimistic on semiconductor industry post-DeepSeek.
  • World Buys Mitsubishi Clothing Business
  • Tyler Technologies: Is The Growth in Transactional Revenue & Payments Processing Here To Stay?
  • Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Volume Growth, Premiumization
  • BlackLine Inc.: Optimizing Go-To-Market Strategies For Growth Trajectories!
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Will Its Focus On Core Banking & Digital Transformation Pay Off?

Religare’s New Dawn: The Burman Family Takes Control

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • After an 18-month saga, the Burman family has taken control of REL, acquiring 25.16% equity and planning a INR 2,000 crore capital infusion.
  • This takeover ends promoter-less governance, injecting fresh strategic capital to transform Religare into a competitive NBFC and drive long-term recovery.
  • Investors should now view Religare as a turnaround story, with robust governance reforms, lower debt, and renewed focus on core financial services promising sustainable growth.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: AI Monetization by How Much & At What Cost?

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU reported C4Q24 top line, non-GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income in-line, (22%) and (7.0%) vs. our est. and (3.7%), (24%) and in line vs. cons. 
  • While monetization on a largely in-house app repertoire can ensure AI revenue to start kicking in in C2H25, we are concerned on the size of this revenue, 
  • We maintain our SELL but raise TP to US$80 to reflect a short-term trading opportunity around AI monetization.

Royalty Pharma: These Are The Major Shifts That Could Redefine Biopharma Royalties!

By Baptista Research

  • Royalty Pharma has reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, underscoring its position as a leading funder of innovation within the life sciences sector.
  • With a significant emphasis on strategic capital deployment, Royalty Pharma achieved portfolio receipts of $2.8 billion, marking a commendable 13% growth and surpassing initial guidance expectations of 5% to 9%.
  • This financial performance reflects the company’s adept management and its capacity to expand its portfolio effectively.

Confluent Inc.: Expanding Product Offerings To Possibly Disrupt the Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Confluent, Inc. exhibited several key strengths and challenges in its recent financial performance.
  • The company’s subscription revenue for the fiscal year grew by 24% to $250.6 million, driven by a 38% increase in Confluent Cloud revenue and a 10% growth in Confluent Platform revenue.
  • This reflects continued strong demand for enterprise-grade data streaming solutions, particularly in regulated industries.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Feb-2025): SK Hynix CEO optimistic on semiconductor industry post-DeepSeek.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • SK Hynix CEO remains bullish on semiconductor industry growth, highlighting new opportunities amidst challenges like DeepSeek.
  • Oppo forges ahead with release of Find N5 foldable phone, undeterred by market slowdown in pursuit of growth and innovation.
  • EU greenlights funds for Infineon’s Dresden fab in chip incentive effort, signaling continued support for semiconductor sector. Samsung exec receives sentence for leaking 18nm DRAM tech to CXMT, highlighting importance of protecting intellectual property.

World Buys Mitsubishi Clothing Business

By Michael Causton

  • World may finally have found the key to real growth after years of trying to build a fashion retail business in shopping centres, but with limited success.
  • The big problem was that it didn’t have the supply chain skills to compete with the big retailers like Uniqlo and Adastria.
  • Buying the supplier that helped grow those same chains means World now has a real chance to enter the big leagues.

Tyler Technologies: Is The Growth in Transactional Revenue & Payments Processing Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • Tyler Technologies’ fourth-quarter results reflect a period of strong financial performance, characterized by significant growth and expansion across its key operational pillars.
  • The company experienced 12.5% revenue increase, largely spurred by a 21.9% jump in subscription revenues, particularly within their SaaS offerings which saw close to 23% growth.
  • This rise in subscription income underscores a strategic pivot towards cloud-based solutions, which remained a focal point in Tyler’s strategy, evident by accelerated SaaS adoption and a reduction in on-premise license revenues.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Volume Growth, Premiumization

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) ‘s Q3 FY25 results showed robust growth in revenue at Rs. 2,346 crores (up 15.5% sequentially, 12.9% YoY) and strong premiumisation with expanded export reach.
  • Enhanced margins driven by effective cost optimization and profitable state brand mix highlight ABDL’s resilience and ability to capture premium market trends, strengthening its competitive position in India’s spirits industry.
  • The company aims to grow the aggregate market share of its four millionaire brands and consolidate its position in the P&A whisky segment through its three millionaire brands

BlackLine Inc.: Optimizing Go-To-Market Strategies For Growth Trajectories!

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine, a cloud-based platform for finance and accounting professionals, reported its Q4 2024 earnings with mixed performance metrics.
  • The company achieved 9% revenue growth despite the adverse impact of a strong U.S. dollar, which added currency headwinds.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin was recorded at 18%, and the revenue renewal rate showed improvement, positioning at 96%—a significant metric in customer retention and satisfaction.

Fidelity National Information Services: Will Its Focus On Core Banking & Digital Transformation Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, outlining a strategic focus on driving commercial excellence, targeting growth vectors, and enhancing profitability.
  • The company reported overall revenue growth for 2024 and noted that its growth trajectory is set to accelerate in 2025.
  • In 2024, FIS reported a revenue growth rate between 3% to 4%, slightly below the company’s initial expectations due to one-time items affecting the quarter.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Who Is Moving Indian Markets? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Who Is Moving Indian Markets?
  • #107 India Insight: PhonePe Plans IPO, Adani Sees Growth, Gujarat Budget Boosts Economy
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/02/2025

Who Is Moving Indian Markets?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Domestic investors (DIIs, retail, and HNIs) now hold 26.67% of non-promoter shares, narrowing the gap with FIIs, whose stakes have dropped to a 12-year low.
  • This shift signifies growing domestic confidence and a stabilizing market environment, reducing dependency on volatile FII flows amid global uncertainties.
  • Movement of the stock prices mostly dependent on FII moves rather than DII or Retail Investors. 

#107 India Insight: PhonePe Plans IPO, Adani Sees Growth, Gujarat Budget Boosts Economy

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PhonePe, India’s largest digital payments player, begins IPO preparations after redomiciling to India in December 2022. With impressive growth and profitability.
  • Adani Group reassures investors and creditors with strong cash reserves and double-digit EBITDA growth. 
  • Gujarat’s Rs 3.70 trillion budget for 2025-26 includes no new taxes. Focus is on infrastructure, green growth, human development, and economic activities, with new projects.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 21/02/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves – A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been recovered.
  • The flow rate is above expectations and unlocks reserves.
  • This result showcases the potential upside at Condor’s Uzbekistan assets.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief ECM: MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations
  • Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
  • According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 

Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK)  is offering 17.06 million shares at HK$202.50 apiece to raise HK$3.45 billion ($444 million) in its initial public offering in Hong Kong
  • Mixue’s IPO was launched today morning  and will close on Wednesday 26th February. The stock is due to list on HK bourses on 3rd March.
  • Mixue, China’s value-for-money freshly made beverage leader, has priced its IPO shares attractively given its robust growth track record and long term competitive strengths.

Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Genuine Biotech is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • Genuine Biotech has commercialized product and is expanding indication of its core product from HIV to cancer.
  • The company’s founder has experience of R&D in the relevant area in leading NMCs.

Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN) (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).
  • As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
  • Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
  • Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf
  • Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook
  • Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector

StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

By David Blennerhassett

Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Naturgy plans a €2.5 billion share buyback at €26.5 per share, thus increasing free float and liquidity, potentially aiding index inclusion and attracting passive ETF investors.
  • The 2025-2027 strategic plan targets €6.4 billion investments, focusing on networks and renewables while maintaining EBITDA at €5.3 billion and net profit at €1.9 billion.
  • A rising dividend from €1.6 to €1.9/share by 2027, with a 100% payout ratio, provides a 7.4% 27e yield, supported by a 2.3x net debt/EBITDA, ensuring sustainability.

Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector

By Douglas Kim

  • On 19 February, KKR sold 2 million shares (4.49%) stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution at 147,500 won (9.3% discount to the previous day’s closing price), representing 295 billion won.
  • Therefore, we would argue that these major shipbuilding shares in Korea (such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean) could face more difficult headwinds in the coming months. 
  • KKR’s timing of its block deal sale of HD Hyundai Marine Solution also reflects its attempt to partially sell its shares while the stock price is still at lofty levels. 

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets
  • [ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
  • HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data

CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets

By Caixin Global

  • Autos /: Chinese carmakers expand into growing Central Asian markets
  • Corruption /: Former ICBC banker gets suspended death sentence for graft
  • Meituan /: Meituan to provide social security benefits for delivery riders

[ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. crude inventories increased by 4.6m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 3.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks dropped more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 196 Bcf for the week ending 14/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 191 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Occidental’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose 8.1% YoY, beating estimates by 18.1%. However, it posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Wolfe Research, UBS, and Susquehanna raised price targets.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Indonesia’s Growth Concerns: Questioning the reliability of Indonesia’s steady 5% GDP growth, highlighting high real lending rates and the need for interest rate cuts to spur private investment.

  • Japan’s Economic Weakness: Stripping out net exports, Japan’s GDP growth is flat, with rising wages squeezing profits, raising concerns about economic sustainability despite positive headline figures.

  • Thailand’s Investment Issues: Thailand’s GDP growth of 2.5% masks weak private sector investment, with public spending driving growth but failing to translate into meaningful private sector expansion.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024

By Actinver

  • The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) confirmed that economic activity closed 2024 with an annual growth rate of 1.5%.
  • In this context, we will be revising our 2025 growth forecast from 1.2% down to 0.8%, while maintaining our forecast for 2026 at 1.9%.
  • We anticipate a successful renegotiation of the USMCA, though not without some ups and downs during the process.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)

By Actinver

  • We estimate that inflation for the first half of February will come in at 0.09% bw, due to the drop in agricultural prices.
  • Inflation for this period is typically around 0.17% bw.
  • Our low estimate is explained by a -4.93% bw generalized decline in agricultural prices, specifically among tomatoes and onions.

HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data

By Phil Rush

  • This week, the flurry of hawkish UK data extended into a torrent, with unemployment, wages, inflation, retail sales, and the flash PMI drowning dovish assumptions. Repriced rates don’t reflect the reality in the macro data where reversing hikes may be needed.
  • Final Euro area inflation data and monetary policy decisions from Korea and Thailand are highlights incapable of changing global narratives. Negotiated EA wage data, policy speeches, and Trump’s regular shouting into the void may dominate instead.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to [email protected]).

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