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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis
  • STCube: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 89 Billion Won
  • JSW Cement Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Kioxia IPO Early Re-Look – Better Placed This Time Around
  • Premier Energies IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation


Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$18.6 billion, based on P/E of 24.4x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR in FY25. 
  • There have been some increasing concerns about Hyundai Motor India paying out higher royalty to its parent Hyundai Motor and dividend to shareholders, which could lower profit.
  • According to a recent article by livemint, the expected valuation of Hyundai Motor India has fallen to about USD16 billion to USD20 billion.

STCube: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 89 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • STCube announced it plans to increase capital by 89 billion won (13 billion won through a third party rights offering and 75.7 billion won through shareholder preferred capital increase).
  • We have a positive view of STCube’s capital raise and there could be some alpha generating returns in our view.
  • The fact that the company’s share price surged nearly 5x from the last rights offering in May 2022 (to October 2022) is likely to positively impact capital raise this time. 

JSW Cement Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • JSW Cement Limited (9858514Z IN) is looking to raise about US$480m in upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JMFin, Axis, Citi, DAM, GS, Jefferies, Kotak, SBI Caps.
  • JSW Cement (JSWC) is a cement manufacturing company in India focused on manufacturing green cementitious products comprising blended cement, ordinary portland cement, ground granulated blast furnace slag among other products.
  • According to CRISIL, JSWC was the fastest growing cement manufacturing company in India, in terms of increase in installed grinding capacity and sales volume from FY14-24.

Kioxia IPO Early Re-Look – Better Placed This Time Around

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) aims to list in Japan by Oct 2024 at a valuation of over US$10bn, as per media reports. 
  • Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Premier Energies IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise up to US$337m in its India IPO, after upsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • The firm manufactures solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services.
  • Previously, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Short Note: The Tide Has Turned for Hong Kong Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Short Note: The Tide Has Turned for Hong Kong Real Estate
  • Ohayo Japan | Rotation Out of Growth
  • Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues
  • # 50 India Insight: Vedanta Deleveraging Strategy, JIO Foreign Investment, Hero Motors Files IPO


Short Note: The Tide Has Turned for Hong Kong Real Estate

By Jacob Cheng

  • HK Property stocks are up 4-5% today.   We think the tide has turned for HK real estate.  As discussed, we identify HK to benefit if Fed starts a rate-cut cycle
  • Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole meeting confirmed the change of monetary policy and will start a rate cut cycle.  Despite fundamental issues remain for HK, market is forward-looking
  • A buy in HK RE names will be a good value trade for next 6-12 months and we discuss potential trade ideas

Ohayo Japan | Rotation Out of Growth

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 41,240 on Monday, rising 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.
  • Technology stocks lagged as Nvidia dropped 2% ahead of its earnings report, with Broadcom and Tesla also sliding
  • Resonac Holdings plans to invest about 30 billion yen to boost production of advanced power semiconductors for EVs starting in 2027

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

By Andrew Jackson

  • Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
  • Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
  • Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.

# 50 India Insight: Vedanta Deleveraging Strategy, JIO Foreign Investment, Hero Motors Files IPO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Japanese Investors Begin Pulling Out from India Midcap Funds, Yet Overall Inflows Stay Positive
  • Vedanta Prepares Rs 30,000-Crore War Chest for Deleveraging and Growth
  • Jio Financial Services Gains Approval to Raise Foreign Investment Cap to 49%

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: PDD (PDD US): Stock Plunged After Excellent 2Q24 Result – Your Time to Buy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • PDD (PDD US): Stock Plunged After Excellent 2Q24 Result – Your Time to Buy
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron’s Taiwan Expansion
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – New Outlets and Esoteric Testing Driving Growth
  • Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On the Cusp of a Turn
  • UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240
  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK): The Most Solid Play
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Aug-2024): Longsys-Kingston venture stalls, Shanghai sale uncertain.
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Illuccix Continues to Drive Growth in 1H24; More Products to Come


PDD (PDD US): Stock Plunged After Excellent 2Q24 Result – Your Time to Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The stock plunged today after the announcement of excellent performance for 2Q24.
  • In 2Q24, revenue grew by 86% YoY and the operating margin improved 10 percentage points YoY.
  • We believe investors should buy, as it is just a tactic from major stock sellers.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong’s unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company’s dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.
  • GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK) has broken out from its triangle pattern.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron’s Taiwan Expansion

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?
  • Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand
  • AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan’s server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – New Outlets and Esoteric Testing Driving Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is starting to see its growth strategy gain traction with a QoQ increase in 2Q2024 revenues driven by more esoteric testing and promotions driving growth. 
  • The company has started to roll out physical outlets more aggressively, especially points of collection, with new clinical labs also providing a wider array of tests including genomic testing.
  • Prodia continues to drive its omnichannel strategy through U by Prodia and its ProdiaLink for Doctors, with capex for Prodia Digital in decline. Valuations remain extremely attractive versus Indian comparables.

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.
  • Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend
  • There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On the Cusp of a Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) adopted a cautious stance to new bookings in 2Q2024 given domestic and geopolitical risks but total receivables remained steady as did credit costs.
  • The company remained focused on non-dealer 4W financing, increased heavy equipment, and reduced 2W exposure, with a move towards dealer-used 4W financial and generally loans with higher value collateral. 
  • BFIN maintains solid funding from banks at a lower cost than its peers and it is expected to start to move to higher-yielding assets in 2H2024. Valuations remain attractive.

UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti delivered its first quarterly revenue of more than $500 million as the Company generated free cash flow to further reduce its debt balance.   
  • Ubiquiti reported fiscal fourth quarter (June) results that were lower than we were forecasting as we assumed service provider segment would continue to trend higher sequentially. 
  • Ubiquiti is now on a revenue trajectory of achieving over $500 million in quarterly revenue along with gross margin of over 40 percent. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): The Most Solid Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK) posted a healthy 2.6% earnings growth for 1H24. If not for the expiry of two oilfields last year, its earnings growth would have reached 6.8%. 
  • Natural gas sales pre-tax margin contracted 0.5pp YoY, but has recovered significantly HoH. Other businesses have all seen good margin expansion. 
  • The company has further accumulated net cash which increased 8.3% in the last six months. At HK$2.76/share, this equals 35% of the share price.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Aug-2024): Longsys-Kingston venture stalls, Shanghai sale uncertain.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Longsys-Kingston JV delay and uncertain future of Shanghai plant sale causing concern in the semiconductor industry.
  • Kaynes SemiCon secures India’s first paying OSAT customer, reaching a significant milestone in advanced semiconductor packaging.
  • Evalue sets ambitious goal to dominate Taiwan’s EV charging market with 30% share by 2026, while AWS sparks cloud battle in SEA.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Illuccix Continues to Drive Growth in 1H24; More Products to Come

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) announced 65% YoY revenue growth to A$364M and reversed a loss with A$29.7M net profit in 1H24.
  • The U.S. sales from Illuccix was the main driver with a 64% YoY increase in revenue to A$359M (~$243M), reflecting continued growth in sales volume and market share gains.
  • Telix reaffirms its full year 2024 revenue guidance of $490–$510M (A$745–776M), up 48–54% YoY. R&D expenditure guidance for 2024 remains at 40–50% increase on 2023.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: ABM Investama and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: ABM Investama, Nickel Industries , Road King Infrastructure
  • Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Minerva: Balancing an Interesting Credit Story with Acquisition Risks
  • Greentown China – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, First Pacific Co


Morning Views Asia: ABM Investama, Nickel Industries , Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Longfor Group’s H1/24 results were acceptable. Earnings declined in line with expectations, driven by lower revenue and margins in the Property Development segment. That said, earnings growth from rentals and services remained robust, with LTM profit from recurring income covering interest expense by 1.6x (FY 2023: 1.4x).

Negatively, net debt increased marginally in H1/24, even though total debt declined. Going forward, we expect the company to continue reducing debt using OCF and refinance its maturing debt using additional operating loans backed by its investment properties. Overall, we believe near-term default risk for Longfor remains low, as the company’s pipeline of new malls should continue to support its access to secured bank loans for refinancing.


Minerva: Balancing an Interesting Credit Story with Acquisition Risks

By Leandro Gubler

  • We are initiating coverage on Minerva with an Underperform recommendation.
  • We are cautious about the credit impact of the Marfrig acquisition.
  • We believe a better entry point into the name may emerge in the future based on our expectation of a weakening credit profile. 

Greentown China – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Greentown’s H1/24 results were acceptable, given the above-industry sales and top-line growth. While gross profit declined, the property development gross margin was stable from FY 2023, and remained robust relative to peers. In addition, net debt was stable from FYE 2023. More importantly, the company’s access to onshore financing appears healthy, and liquidity is adequate.

The company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, mostly in high-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta. Although Greentown is considered a pure-play developer (as its recurring income businesses are small), the company appears to have navigated the industry downturn well, thanks to its cautious approach towards land investments and operating efficiency to support a fast-churn model.


Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, First Pacific Co

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer
  • Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk
  • KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents
  • Huafa Property (982 HK): Buy With Both Hands
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Aug 2024); Net Breaks the 28-Week Buying Streak on ETF Selling
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV DEL Likely; Shin Kong M&A Consequences
  • Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: Final Expectations; One Deletion; US$253mn One-Way
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off


Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer

By Arun George

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Goh family and Ikhlas Capital. The default cash consideration is S$0.36, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The combi consideration is S$0.30 in cash and one new redeemable preference share (RPS) in the offeror, which will be mandatorily redeemed after five calendar years at S$0.18 per RPS.
  • While not declared final, the offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. The offeror is likely to use the voluntary delisting method to privatise Silverlake.

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally “scheduled” to start in late August 2024.
  • “Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed” so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.
  • The announcement appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.

KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX plans to launch the Value-Up Index as two separate indices: the “Excellent Value-Up Index” and the “Promising Value-Up Index.”
  • The universe will include 150 constituents from KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150. Allocation between indices is undecided, with sector limits on number and weight confirmed.
  • The key indicators (ROE, PBR, shareholder return rate) remain unchanged. The Promising Index’s weights are undisclosed, but the Excellent Index favors financial and automotive stocks.

Huafa Property (982 HK): Buy With Both Hands

By David Blennerhassett

  • A state-owned Offeror pitching a lifetime high Offer Price – with a solid premium –  for an illiquid company? Sounds like a slam dunk.
  • Yet  property manager Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) has perennially traded wide to Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)‘s terms. This is not justified. 
  • The Scheme Meeting/SGM is tomorrow (28 August), with payment on (or before) the 30 September. Or a gross/annualised return of 4%/46%. Buy here. Then buy some more. 

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The tender start has been delayed from late August to around late January 2025.
  • The delay was due to outstanding China SAMR and Vietnam regulatory approvals. The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. 
  • While Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s underperformance lowers the deal’s break price, timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/7.5%. 

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) is a near certain deletion from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell 20m shares in Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT). That is over 10% of float and the stock could continue to remain under pressure. 
  • The potential deletion still appears to be under positioned. There could be renewed selling in the stock over the next few weeks.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Aug 2024); Net Breaks the 28-Week Buying Streak on ETF Selling

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was a net seller this past week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
  • Gross volumes remain very low. Net volumes de minimis. Very August-ish. No sectors stood out. 
  • The largest net buy was CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) where the net buying was the same size as the fifth largest net sell (Tencent (700 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV DEL Likely; Shin Kong M&A Consequences

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • Today is the base date for the September 2024 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs  discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
  • Separately, we also have a look at the T50/100 index implications of the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger situation.

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: Final Expectations; One Deletion; US$253mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
  • Today is the base date for determining constituent weights/capping for the TDIV index September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect one deletion in September 2024 and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be around US$253mn.

KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.
  • We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
  • The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.

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Daily Brief Macro: India to Become Next China? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India to Become Next China?
  • Steno Signals #114 – A Powell Put is Ueda’s Catastrophe
  • Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets
  • Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag
  • US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI
  • How Different Is the Current Unemployment Behavior?
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Rakyat Indonesia, BFIN, Prodia, and Shakey’s Pizza
  • South Korean Financials:  Conviction Move Higher in Positioning


India to Become Next China?

By Alex Ng

  • India’s rapid economic growth, coupled with China’s recent economic challenges, has fueled discussions about whether India can become the next global economic power, as China has done for decades.
  • China and India, Asia’s two largest economies, have taken different economic paths in recent years.
  • Analysts at UBS Global Research pointed out: “China’s post-epidemic economic recovery is weak, while India’s performance is strong.”

Steno Signals #114 – A Powell Put is Ueda’s Catastrophe

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from Denmark!I’ve had a few days to digest Powell’s speech from Friday, and my takeaway is unequivocally dovish.
  • Powell and the committee have signaled that they will not tolerate further cooling of the U.S. labor market without responding.
  • This marks a full-blown shift in priorities, with inflation numbers now taking a backseat to labor market data going forward.

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

By The Commodity Report

  • Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.
  • This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.
  • According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

By At Any Rate

  • The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.
  • Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.
  • Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentiment
  • Market theme of “Goldilocks” prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollar
  • Outlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economy

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


How Different Is the Current Unemployment Behavior?

By Thomas Lam

  • A climb in the unemployment rate can be associated with recessions, especially when dominated by a negative change in employment
  • But the recent rise in the unemployment rate through July does not seem to be consistent with the characteristics of prior recessions on balance
  • Nevertheless, further increases in the unemployment rate need not be of the same breed   

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Rakyat Indonesia, BFIN, Prodia, and Shakey’s Pizza

By Angus Mackintosh


South Korean Financials:  Conviction Move Higher in Positioning

By Steven Holden

  • South Korean Financials are experiencing a significant increase in fund ownership. Average fund weights are approaching record highs at 1.94%, with a record 52% positioned overweight.
  • At the fund level, a strong buy-side bias is evident, with 37 funds opening positions compared to just 3 closures over the last 6-months.
  • Strong ownership momentum in KB Financial, DB Insurance, Shinhan Financial, and SK Square have contributed to the sector-wide bullishness.

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Daily Brief Australia: Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Illuccix Continues to Drive Growth in 1H24; More Products to Come


Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Illuccix Continues to Drive Growth in 1H24; More Products to Come

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) announced 65% YoY revenue growth to A$364M and reversed a loss with A$29.7M net profit in 1H24.
  • The U.S. sales from Illuccix was the main driver with a 64% YoY increase in revenue to A$359M (~$243M), reflecting continued growth in sales volume and market share gains.
  • Telix reaffirms its full year 2024 revenue guidance of $490–$510M (A$745–776M), up 48–54% YoY. R&D expenditure guidance for 2024 remains at 40–50% increase on 2023.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Kodex Banks ETF, Hyundai Motor India , STCube, LS Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents
  • Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis
  • STCube: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 89 Billion Won
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off


KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX plans to launch the Value-Up Index as two separate indices: the “Excellent Value-Up Index” and the “Promising Value-Up Index.”
  • The universe will include 150 constituents from KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150. Allocation between indices is undecided, with sector limits on number and weight confirmed.
  • The key indicators (ROE, PBR, shareholder return rate) remain unchanged. The Promising Index’s weights are undisclosed, but the Excellent Index favors financial and automotive stocks.

Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$18.6 billion, based on P/E of 24.4x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR in FY25. 
  • There have been some increasing concerns about Hyundai Motor India paying out higher royalty to its parent Hyundai Motor and dividend to shareholders, which could lower profit.
  • According to a recent article by livemint, the expected valuation of Hyundai Motor India has fallen to about USD16 billion to USD20 billion.

STCube: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 89 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • STCube announced it plans to increase capital by 89 billion won (13 billion won through a third party rights offering and 75.7 billion won through shareholder preferred capital increase).
  • We have a positive view of STCube’s capital raise and there could be some alpha generating returns in our view.
  • The fact that the company’s share price surged nearly 5x from the last rights offering in May 2022 (to October 2022) is likely to positively impact capital raise this time. 

KOSPI Size Indices: Momentum Stalls; (Some) Upward Migrations Sell-Off

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August. Only 4 trading days to go.
  • We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 12 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
  • The upward migrations have underperformed the downward migrations over the last month as a few stocks have sold off hard. Some despite being included in global indices.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Silverlake Axis , ST Engineering, Mapletree Industrial Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer
  • Director acquisitions rebound after earnings reporting season
  • REIT Watch – Industrial Reits maintain resilience despite sector’s slowdown


Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Voluntary Unconditional Offer

By Arun George

  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Goh family and Ikhlas Capital. The default cash consideration is S$0.36, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The combi consideration is S$0.30 in cash and one new redeemable preference share (RPS) in the offeror, which will be mandatorily redeemed after five calendar years at S$0.18 per RPS.
  • While not declared final, the offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. The offeror is likely to use the voluntary delisting method to privatise Silverlake.

Director acquisitions rebound after earnings reporting season

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Aug 16 to 22, with S$184.7 million of net institutional inflow.
  • Leading the net institutional inflow were DBS, Singapore Exchange (SGX), Sats, UOB, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, Seatrium, Mapletree Industrial Trust, OCBC, Singtel and Singapore Technologies Engineering.
  • Between Aug 15 and 16, Wee Investments acquired two million shares of UOL at an average price of S$5.21 per share.

REIT Watch – Industrial Reits maintain resilience despite sector’s slowdown

By Geoff Howie

  • In JTC’s latest market report for the second quarter of 2024, it noted that industrial rents rose 1 per cent quarter on quarter, recording the slowest rate of increase since Q1 2022 following the Covid-pandemic recovery.
  • On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, industrial rents are still up 6.6 per cent.
  • Overall occupancy rates rose 0.3 percentage point to 89 per cent as new demand continues to outpace supply increases.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Ubiquiti Inc., Crude Palm Oil Active Contract, EURO/US DOLLAR, Vera Bradley, Immersion Corporation, Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi, Cingulate and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
  • UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240
  • Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets
  • Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag
  • VRA: Snapping the Store: Shocking the System; Reiterate Buy, PT
  • IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50
  • RVPH: August OLE Update
  • CING: Initiating Coverage – Precision Timed Release Delivers Active-Day Coverage


Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.
  • Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend
  • There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.

UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti delivered its first quarterly revenue of more than $500 million as the Company generated free cash flow to further reduce its debt balance.   
  • Ubiquiti reported fiscal fourth quarter (June) results that were lower than we were forecasting as we assumed service provider segment would continue to trend higher sequentially. 
  • Ubiquiti is now on a revenue trajectory of achieving over $500 million in quarterly revenue along with gross margin of over 40 percent. 

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

By The Commodity Report

  • Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.
  • This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.
  • According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

By At Any Rate

  • The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.
  • Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.
  • Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


VRA: Snapping the Store: Shocking the System; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $10 price target and projections as we review our mail line store visits for August.
  • August represents the first monthly store tours where the main line stores have their full compliment of fixtures and products to represent the launch of their New Day (which was July 11th); further, unlike the outlet stores (which completed their New Day conversion on August 22nd), the change for the main line locations was a complete product reset, a true “shock to the system,” positioning Vera Bradley on a new course with a wider offering of fabrics, a materially easier to shop store, an emphasis on handbags, complete leather collections and even new logos.
  • While we view these changes as longer term positives which position Vera Bradley for a new generation of shoppers, we do acknowledge that, like any shock, the near term impacts can be messy as the prior core shopper adjust and new shoppers slowly shift their views on Vera Bradley.

IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IMMR reported second quarter results that included partial results from Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), which IMMR owns approximately 42 percent of.   
  • We believe the decision to carry the BNED position at investment value might have distorted the true value of IMMR.  
  • Hidden in IMMR’s 10Q filing was the resolution of the patent lawsuit against Xiaomi. The settlement resulted in IMMR reporting a larger than expected revenue figure for IMMR. 

RVPH: August OLE Update

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
  • The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
  • Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & began its 2nd in 2Q:24.

CING: Initiating Coverage – Precision Timed Release Delivers Active-Day Coverage

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Cingulate is developing its Precision Timed Release (PTR) technology to deliver ADHD drugs to improve onset & efficacy of previously approved products.
  • The company licensed rights to manufacturing a 3-layer tablet that releases dexmethylphenidate (CTx-1301) over the active day.
  • CTx-1301 provides immediate onset, eliminates the need for a booster dose, reduces diversion & simplifies dosing among other benefits.

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