China

• On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
• The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. 
• Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. 

• In a pick-up in primary market activity, there have been 25 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in Q3.
• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) will be added to the HSCI after market close on 15 October and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 27 October.
• There could be 4 (maybe 5) additions to the HSCI Index in December and 3 of those stocks will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open 8 December.

• Materials, Healthcare and Tech sectors continue to lead the Hong Kong Secular Bull Market higher. The tech sector has been re-rating since Alibaba (9988 HK) announced its AI chip.
• Momentum, Growth, and Liquidity factors have led the Hong Kong market performance year-to-date.  Southbound flows into the Hong Kong market continue at historically high levels.
• Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) was rated a BUY by Deutsche Bank with its initial target price of HK$11.  Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage of CaoCao (2643 HK) a BUY.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

• New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
• Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
• Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, all of the listings this week ended up doing well.
• On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week in Hong Kong and India, there were no major placements this week.

• Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
• At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
• The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 

• Saint Bella (2508 HK) achieved 1H25 revenue of RMB 449.5M (up 26% YoY) driven by higher sales from postpartum business (up 25% YoY) as number of postpartum centers increased.
• The company opened 36 stores in 1H25 and average contract value of postpartum recovery sales at all service brands witnessed rise (Bella Isla saw highest increase, up 36% YoY).
• With no major growth hurdles visible for Saint Bella, secular demand in place and with consistent capacity additions it is worth to buy the stock at this point of time.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for 8 prominent Hong Kong stocks and the benchmark index.
• Highlights: In contrast, Alibaba’s IV remains rich, while Hang Seng Index IV is cheap across the curve, offering attractive hedge entry points.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Despite TONGSHIFU’s leading position through vertically integrated business model, the inherent limitations of the industry are obstacles for further expansion. Performance growth is clearly constrained by the overall market capacity.
• The “double attack” market pattern makes it more difficult for TONGSHIFU to achieve breakthrough growth within the existing market. Outside of copper-based products, TONGSHIFU hasn’t found a second growth curve.
• TONGSHIFU’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart/Laopu Gold/Bloks due to the big gap in growth potential/profitability/cashability. However, valuation could be higher than industry average due to leading market position.  

• The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)‘s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
• Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don’t short the eve of earnings.
• Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 

• Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.
• Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.
• The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay’s valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.

• HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity
• Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.
• We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.

• As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
• Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
• Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 

• Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore. 
• Beijing’s stricter stance on BHP and Simandou’s safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.
• Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

• BYD (1211 HK) is currently in a position from where it could rally. Our previous insight suggested a possible bottoming area around 100.9 but the stock never reached that low.
• This week the stock rallied to 114.7, then pulled back. If the stock is temporarily bottoming, it could rally past 115 and up to 130 from here. 
• According to our TIME MODEL the duration of the rally could be up to 3-4 weeks (2-3 more weeks up from here).

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Logan Group
• The UST curve flattened marginally yesterday, as long-end yields declined marginally while the short end was stable.
• Trading volumes were reported to be below average, as macro releases were stalled in the second day of the US government shutdown.

• Key 1H25 takeaways include: 1) As previously disclosed, MFI’s co-founders recently sold the company to Fire Lucky Investment Co., controlled by Mr. Dawei Yuan.
• Looking ahead, we would not be surprised to see Mr. Yuan increasingly leverage his considerable background/expertise, particularly as it relates to digital assets, to shift MFI’s strategic vision/business model, thereby enhancing the company’s growth prospects, revenue profile, and earnings power over time.
• 2) In September, MFI filed a prospectus as part of a previously-filed “shelf” registration statement to potentially raise up to $700 million via the sale of equity, debt, and/or warrants.

• Viomi filed its Form 20-F annual report with the SEC, and the audited financial statements did not materially change from the preliminary results released roughly six months ago in March.
• We will update our complete model and review our price target once the complete first-half results are released later this month.
• Viomi introduced a new high-end filtration system for the US market and announced several new marketing initiatives in China ahead of the key shopping holidays in November and December.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
• Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
• Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend — buy.

• CK Hutchison is a global conglomerate with leading positions in ports, retail, infrastructure, and telecommunications, offering significant diversification benefits.
• The company is currently trading at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value, indicated by low price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios, presenting a potentially attractive entry point for long-term investors.
• Significant uncertainty surrounds the company due to a major pending sale of its port assets, which faces considerable geopolitical and regulatory hurdles, making it a key catalyst and risk.

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• New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses
• However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost
• Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish

• Despite its 96% price appreciation since our initiation, United Laboratories is still trading on a 8.7 FPE, and a 5.5 EV/EVITDA.
• A US FDA GLP-1 approval and a potential $ 1.8bn deal with Novo Nordisk demonstrates its successful diabetes and obesity strategy.
• With over 80 drugs in the pipeline to be delivered over the next five years, we believe that TUL is about to experience a very material increase in topline growth.

• Cosin Solar Technology Co (SUPCOZ CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by China Securities International.
• Cosin Solar Technology Co. (CST) is a Chinese company specializing in concentrated solar power (CSP) solutions, particularly molten salt tower systems. 
• The company’s main business lies in providing the collector system and other core sub-systems essential for constructing large-scale CSP plants.

• Innovent Biologics is a rapidly growing Chinese biopharmaceutical firm transitioning towards profitability, driven by a strong portfolio of commercialized drugs, notably the PD-1 inhibitor TYVYT® (sintilimab).
• The company possesses a deep and diversified pipeline spanning oncology, metabolic diseases, autoimmune disorders, and ophthalmology, positioning it for sustained long-term growth beyond its current core products.
• While exhibiting impressive revenue growth and improving financials, the company faces significant risks from intense domestic competition, government-led drug price negotiations (NRDL), and a high valuation that may already price in future success.

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• Sunny Optical is a global leader in optical components, holding substantial market shares in key segments like vehicle and handset lens sets, positioning it to capitalize on long-term growth in automotive autonomy and smartphone premiumization.
• The company exhibits a strong financial profile, characterized by a healthy net cash position, which provides resilience and flexibility. However, it has faced significant headwinds recently, with key financial metrics showing negative growth over the last three years.
• Key risks include high customer concentration with major tech companies, intense industry competition, and the rapid pace of technological change, which creates uncertainty and could impact future profitability.

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• Accelink is a leading Chinese optical components manufacturer, well-positioned to capitalize on secular growth trends in data centers, 5G, and AI-driven network upgrades. Strong revenue growth and market momentum are key positives.
• Significant concern arises from the company’s consistently negative cash flow generation. Despite a strong top-line growth track record, operating and free cash flow have deteriorated significantly over the last several years, indicating potential issues with working capital management or profitability of its growth.
• The company trades at a premium valuation compared to the provided peer average, with a P/E ratio over 60x. This elevated valuation, combined with margin pressure and severe cash flow issues, suggests the market may be pricing in a level of growth and profitability that could be challenging to achieve.

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• FS adopts a unique light-asset business model of “R&D design + outsourcing production + direct sales platform”, which leads to higher profit margin than traditional channel sales vendors.
• FS once failed in A-Share IPO and received penalty in 2025. Internal control defects are the “Achilles heel”, which makes us worry whether FS has the problem of “inflating revenue”. 
• Although FS has positive performance growth, the uncertainty of Sino-US relations and exchange rate risks may put pressure on profitability. Valuation of FS could be lower than peers. 

• Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) has announced 1H25 result, with total revenue increasing 51% YoY. The company recorded its maiden net profit of RMB834M on a reported basis.
• Despite an overcrowded PD-1 inhibitor market in China, core oncology product, Tyvyt maintained good growth momentum. Tyvyt is under NDA review for its ninth and tenth indications.
• In June, Innovent received approval for mazdutide, first-in-class chronic weight management drug in China. In 2H25, mazdutide is expected to receive approval for a second indication in type 2 diabetes.

• Lee’s Pharmaceutical is an integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on the Chinese market, with a dual strategy of developing proprietary drugs and licensing international products.
• The company demonstrated a significant financial turnaround in the most recent fiscal year, with substantial growth in revenue and net income, reversing a trend of long-term decline.
• Despite a recent recovery, the company faces high uncertainty due to a history of volatile earnings and significant long-term declines in key metrics like net income and market capitalization, balanced against a currently attractive valuation.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Vedanta Resources, Nickel Industries
• The UST curve twisted slightly steeper yesterday, with the front-end continuing to be supported by the prospect of Fed rate cuts against the backdrop of a looming US government shutdown.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.61%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.15%. Equities climbed for the third day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

• Impact Therapeutics, a China-based near-commercial-stage biopharma company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. GS and CICC are the joint sponsors
• In this note, we look at the company’s core products, senaparib/IMP4297, and key products IMP1734 and IMP9064.
• We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

• Videotimes adopts a “domestic production + overseas sales” model. The Company competes for market share by relying largely on Amazon channel and price cuts, with overall revenue showing upward trend.
• Due to Sino-US tariff war and the risk of US dollar depreciation, future performance decline seems inevitable. Our forecast for 2025 is revenue/net profit could be down 4.8% YoY/21% YoY.
• Valuation of Videotimes could be lower than peer. A comfortable range is P/E of 10-15x. However, if 2025 performance decline is confirmed, valuation may be revised down to 6-10x P/E.

• Melco International Development (200 HK) is now trading at a premium to NAV for the first time since announcing a one-for-two rights issue.
• Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Zijin Mining Group is a leading global mining company with a significant presence in gold, copper, and zinc production. The company is strategically focused on expanding its international footprint through acquisitions and organic growth, particularly in gold and copper.
• The company is capitalizing on high commodity prices, especially for gold, to fuel its growth and is undertaking a significant corporate action by spinning off its international gold assets into a separately listed entity, Zijin Gold, in Hong Kong to attract global investors.
• While demonstrating strong financial performance and production growth, the company faces challenges related to geopolitical risks, resource nationalism, and the inherent volatility of commodity markets. A key focus for the future is balancing its aggressive expansion with sustainable and responsible mining practices.

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• US as the world’s largest service economy means artificial general intelligence (AGI) saves cost by replacing knowledge workers. 
• China’s AI monetization is today 1/3 of US but will improve to 1/2 by 2030. 
• We reiterate our TOP PICKS of Alibaba, HESAI, CATL and Kuaishou. BIDU stays as SELL.

• Minmetals Land (230 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to certain inside information and pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.“
• It is likely that the controlling shareholder (China Minmetals), representing 61.88% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
• With a 40% surge in its share price on Monday, Minmetals is trading at a significant premium to book, suggesting limited upside. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$0.54-HK$0.69.

• Taste Gourmet is a fast-growing, multi-brand restaurant operator in Hong Kong, demonstrating a remarkable growth trajectory with a 3-year net income CAGR of 53.6%.
• The company is an attractive income play, offering a high dividend yield of approximately 8.6%, supported by robust free cash flow generation.
• Valuation appears compelling at a significant discount to peers, with a potential rerating catalyst from its proposed migration from the GEM to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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• For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• Melco International Development is a holding company whose primary asset is its majority stake in Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO), a leading operator of integrated casino resorts with a strong presence in Macau and expanding operations in the Philippines and Cyprus.
• The company is experiencing a significant financial turnaround, with revenues and cash flows rebounding strongly from pandemic-era lows. This recovery is driven by the resurgence of tourism and gaming demand in Macau, particularly in the high-margin premium mass market segment.
• Despite strong operational performance and growth, valuation appears stretched. The parent company (200 HK) trades at a premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV), a reversal of its historical discount, suggesting the market may have already priced in the near-term recovery.

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• Pateo Connect is a prominent provider of smart cockpit solutions in China’s rapidly growing New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market, demonstrating robust revenue growth driven by the adoption of high-end products.
• The company faces substantial profitability hurdles, characterized by persistent net losses and gross margins that are the lowest among its peers, signaling a challenging competitive position.
• The investment profile is high-risk, marked by a concentrated customer base, increased financial leverage, and a premium valuation for its upcoming IPO that appears stretched relative to its growth and margin outlook.

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• Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.
• China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.
• We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.

• The essence of KEYING’s business model is a “middle man” and relies on making money through price difference in the process of sales of goods, but “de-intermediation” is a trend.
• The pain point is most retail solution providers are unlikely to become industry giants due to excessive investment/lack the say in core technologies/products.The underlying logic of the industry is changing.
• As the platform traffic dividend disappears and the trend of brand self-built teams intensifies, KEYING’s bargaining power is weakening.Valuation should be lower than peers due to weaker performance growth rate/profitability.  

• Melco International Development (200 HK) is now trading at a premium to NAV for the first time since announcing a one-for-two rights issue.
• Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Zijin Mining Group is a leading global mining company with a significant presence in gold, copper, and zinc production. The company is strategically focused on expanding its international footprint through acquisitions and organic growth, particularly in gold and copper.
• The company is capitalizing on high commodity prices, especially for gold, to fuel its growth and is undertaking a significant corporate action by spinning off its international gold assets into a separately listed entity, Zijin Gold, in Hong Kong to attract global investors.
• While demonstrating strong financial performance and production growth, the company faces challenges related to geopolitical risks, resource nationalism, and the inherent volatility of commodity markets. A key focus for the future is balancing its aggressive expansion with sustainable and responsible mining practices.

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• US as the world’s largest service economy means artificial general intelligence (AGI) saves cost by replacing knowledge workers. 
• China’s AI monetization is today 1/3 of US but will improve to 1/2 by 2030. 
• We reiterate our TOP PICKS of Alibaba, HESAI, CATL and Kuaishou. BIDU stays as SELL.

• Minmetals Land (230 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to certain inside information and pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.“
• It is likely that the controlling shareholder (China Minmetals), representing 61.88% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
• With a 40% surge in its share price on Monday, Minmetals is trading at a significant premium to book, suggesting limited upside. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$0.54-HK$0.69.

• Taste Gourmet is a fast-growing, multi-brand restaurant operator in Hong Kong, demonstrating a remarkable growth trajectory with a 3-year net income CAGR of 53.6%.
• The company is an attractive income play, offering a high dividend yield of approximately 8.6%, supported by robust free cash flow generation.
• Valuation appears compelling at a significant discount to peers, with a potential rerating catalyst from its proposed migration from the GEM to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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• For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• Melco International Development is a holding company whose primary asset is its majority stake in Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO), a leading operator of integrated casino resorts with a strong presence in Macau and expanding operations in the Philippines and Cyprus.
• The company is experiencing a significant financial turnaround, with revenues and cash flows rebounding strongly from pandemic-era lows. This recovery is driven by the resurgence of tourism and gaming demand in Macau, particularly in the high-margin premium mass market segment.
• Despite strong operational performance and growth, valuation appears stretched. The parent company (200 HK) trades at a premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV), a reversal of its historical discount, suggesting the market may have already priced in the near-term recovery.

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• Pateo Connect is a prominent provider of smart cockpit solutions in China’s rapidly growing New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market, demonstrating robust revenue growth driven by the adoption of high-end products.
• The company faces substantial profitability hurdles, characterized by persistent net losses and gross margins that are the lowest among its peers, signaling a challenging competitive position.
• The investment profile is high-risk, marked by a concentrated customer base, increased financial leverage, and a premium valuation for its upcoming IPO that appears stretched relative to its growth and margin outlook.

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• Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.
• China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.
• We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.

• The essence of KEYING’s business model is a “middle man” and relies on making money through price difference in the process of sales of goods, but “de-intermediation” is a trend.
• The pain point is most retail solution providers are unlikely to become industry giants due to excessive investment/lack the say in core technologies/products.The underlying logic of the industry is changing.
• As the platform traffic dividend disappears and the trend of brand self-built teams intensifies, KEYING’s bargaining power is weakening.Valuation should be lower than peers due to weaker performance growth rate/profitability.  

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
• The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
• The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

• In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.
• A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts. 
• The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. 

• Based on DCF model, valuation is about US$28.4 billion. We think this is the valuation bottom line. Conservative investors can take profits at this valuation level.
• Valuation has the potential to reach US$34-42bn (or 18-22x P/E ) if based on 2025 forecast.Optimistic investors can choose to wait for stock price to fall within this valuation range. 
• Considering better profitability/shareholder resources, Zijin Gold has more advantage than Shandong Gold Mining. Therefore, market value of Zijin Gold will widen the gap with Shandong Gold Mining in the future.

• Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
• As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
• Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) raised around US$3.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Key points (machine generated)

• Didi’s stock price is stable at $4.90, adhering to management guidance for eight months.
• Concerns about autonomous driving in China arise due to low labor costs and a deflationary environment, impacting regulatory responses.
• Didi is well-positioned for partnerships with AV companies, while Tesla faces regulatory challenges in operating a ride-hailing service in China.

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• Nova Insight (INS HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JP Morgan and HSBC.
• Nova Insight is the largest independent AI technology company in the insurance industry in China.
• As of Dec 31, 2024, Nova’s solutions have been cumulatively adopted by 90 insurance companies, including eight of the top ten insurance companies in China.

• Evergrande is a defunct Chinese property developer that was once the second-largest in China by sales. Its collapse in 2021 triggered a major crisis in the country’s real estate sector.
• The company is currently undergoing liquidation after a Hong Kong court order in January 2024, following its failure to present a viable restructuring plan for its massive debt, which exceeded $300 billion.
• The future for Evergrande‘s stakeholders is highly uncertain, with offshore creditors facing a bleak outlook for recovery. The company’s situation highlights significant corporate governance failures and systemic risks within China’s property market.

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• Netdragon is a prominent player in China’s online gaming and mobile internet sectors, with a growing international presence in the education technology market.
• The company is strategically pivoting towards the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in both its gaming and education segments, aiming to enhance user experience and operational efficiency.
• Despite recent revenue declines and market volatility, Netdragon maintains a strong dividend yield and has an active share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence in its long-term strategy.

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Founded in 1984, Sunny Optical Technology is a leading global integrated optical-component manufacturer. It was the largest global vehicle lens-set producer in 2024 with a market share of 32.3%, the largest global handset lens-set producer (30.8% market share) and the largest global handset camera-module producer (12.1%). The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since 2007. The largest shareholder is Sun Xu Limited with a 35% stake, while 65% is publicly held. Founder Wang Wenjian and the Sunny Group Employee Offshore Trust own and control Sun Xu Limited.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell. 
• The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) stock has begun to rerate on the back of its deal with with Zhongke Wenge to integrate and launch AI applications outside of China.
• NetDragon will integrate Wenge’s LLM, YaYi, with its education products.  In August 2025, Cherrypicks and Wenge jointly launched AI applications, including social listening and multimodal content creation tools globally.
• NetDragon has consistently enhanced shareholder returns through substantial dividends and since its earnings announcement in August has begun buying back shares in the market.

• “Beautiful Skew” showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia. 
• Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks
• Highlights: Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)stands out with historically low implied volatility across the term structure. Alibaba (9988 HK)is rich in November and December contracts.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, this week saw a few good listings across the region while the spotlight will be on Zijin Gold (2259 HK) in the coming week.
• On the placements front, it was a relatively quiter week, as compared to some of the more recent weekly flows.

• Netdragon is a prominent player in China’s online gaming and mobile internet sectors, with a growing international presence in the education technology market.
• The company is strategically pivoting towards the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in both its gaming and education segments, aiming to enhance user experience and operational efficiency.
• Despite recent revenue declines and market volatility, Netdragon maintains a strong dividend yield and has an active share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence in its long-term strategy.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• CF017 is CF PharmTech’s core performance driver. Once CF017 faces policy adjustments or intensified market competition, revenue will be significantly impacted. Its ability to sustain operations will be severely tested.
• Although CF PharmTech has made a profit, problems such as a slowdown in revenue growth and heavy reliance on single product will lead to a valuation discount by the market.
• A reasonable valuation range might be between RMB3-5 billion. If valuation exceeds RMB5 billion, it would seem overly optimistic and require strong support from subsequent performance and solid fundamentals.

• The delivery system is a crucial element that drives the development/iteration of innovative oligonucleotide therapeutics. Ribo has mastered both GalNAc and LNP technologies, whose effectiveness/safety have been verified and recognized.
• The valuation fluctuations not only reflect the market’s prudence towards commercialization prospects of small nucleic acid drugs, but also highlight the balance problem between Ribo’s R&D investment and profit model.
• Since Sirnaomics’ delivery technologies have not been proven or validated scientifically, Ribo’s valuation should be higher than Sirnaomics.Valuation outlook is based on the druggability and commercialization performance of Ribo’s pipelines. 

• Roborock’s margins are expected to bottom-out after a tough four quarters of strategically prioritizing market share at the cost of margins. 3Q-4Q25 will mark the start of new margin cycle.
• Margins stabilizing at the new normal of 12-14% NPM will mean earnings will track revenue growth going forward. Meanwhile, revenues can surprise on the upside with >25% CAGR in medium-term.
• HK-Listing into 2H25/ 1H26 is a strong catalyst which can bring in fresh money, and improve disclosure standards – a key concern. We expect 70% upside in our bull case.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Zijin Gold (2259 HK), Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK). 

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
• Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
• Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500

• Trump said he will place import taxes on 100% of pharmaceutical drugs, which will begin on Oct.1. Below, we shared our views on this new policy.
• Some companies continue to repurchase/increase their holdings despite the industry’s significant rise this year, indicating that major shareholders truly have confidence in the outlook. We specifically listed these companies.
• The fluctuations in Duality’s stock price are obviously driven by capital after being included in HK Stock Connect. we suggest that investors pay attention to risks as Duality faces correction.