China

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the impact of the new selection methodology for the December 2025 and March 2026 rebal/review events.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

• Down 18% in the past month, fundamentals for AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK), one of China’s leading aviation/defense plays, still appear demanding.
• Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• China gold jewelry demand slumped in 2Q2025, while investment demand for coins and bars remained resilient amidst rise in gold prices, according to data released by China Gold Association.
• If gold rally continues, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) faces heightened demand growth risk due to reliance on the competitive, price-sensitive, consumption-driven jewellery segment.
• Chow Tai Fook’s 140% YTD rally reflects optimism on branding-driven earnings growth, but stretched valuations overlook downside risks to growth if gold prices keep rising.

• Chery Automobile (9973 HK) is a Chinese automobile manufacturer. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion.
• I previously discussed the IPO in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case and Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case. 
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable.

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• Context: The Alibaba (9988 HK) / Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is looking to raise around US$141m from a primary placement.
• The deal is a small one, representing 3.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 1.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

• A financial group backed by Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma has made a major foray into digital assets, investing $44 million to acquire 10,000 units of Ether, the native token of the Ethereum blockchain.
• Yunfeng Financial Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed company in which Ma holds an 11.15% stake, disclosed the acquisition in a regulatory filing Tuesday. The company said it purchased the Ether on the open market using internal cash and would classify the asset as a long-term investment on its financial books.
• The purchase marks a growing trend of publicly traded companies adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets, a strategy known on Wall Street as digital asset treasury, or DAT.

• Yusys Technologies (300674 CH) is looking to raise around US$350m in its upcoming H-share listing.
• Yusys Technologies is a PRC leading fintech solution provider operating in the domestic and overseas market, providing full-stack product-oriented technology solutions to a wide spectrum of financial institutions.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• China has vigorously restricted the use of antibiotics. Even for novel antibiotics, they won’t replace old antibiotics completely considering higher price/the difficulty of changing prescription habits of existing clinical guidelines.
• The NMPA’s approval standards for new antibiotics are becoming increasingly strict. So, regulatory agencies’ evaluation of the true efficacy of TNP-2198 may lead to the delay in its market launch. 
• Post-Money valuation after Series E financing reached RMB2 billion. Valuation of TenNor could be lower than peers Zai Lab and Everest Medicines who already have commercialized products on the market.

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
• However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 

• Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
• The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
• There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will look at the firm’s valuation.

• The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a “pure gold business” to the market. Such “asset revaluation” can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
• For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
• Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.

• On 12 September, Shenyang SASAC increased its Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60. The IFA opines it is fair and reasonable.
• The revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders. However, the IFA analysis is flawed, and the revised offer is light.
• While the 21 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge. 

• Butong Group (BUTONG HK) is looking to raise US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Butong has been able to achieve strong topline momentum of 57% CAGR from FY22 to FY24, whilst expanding its margins, and is on track to replicate that performance for FY25.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.
• Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.
• Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.

• We visited a “Busy for You” store near a university in Shanghai.
• We believe Busy Ming can attract young customers because of low prices and small packages.
• However, we also believe the company does employ enough shop assistants.

• Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.
• CGN Mining (1164 HK) is China’s largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.
• CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN’s revenue is from EU and U.S.

• H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
• Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
• On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with >10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.

• Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares sharply higher.
• The Chinese tech conglomerate raised $3.2 billion through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2032, a financing round earmarked for strengthening its AI and cloud infrastructure.
• At the same time, reports surfaced that Alibaba is beginning to deploy in-house AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia’s costly accelerators and signaling a shift toward technological sovereignty in the middle of China’s broader AI race.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  
• I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. 

• High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.
• Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.
• Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

• On the 26th August, rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a pretty tragic 86.49% discount to NAV.
• On the 12th September, the Offeror bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV.
• The Composite Document’s now out, with a H-share class meeting on the 21st October. The IFA (Gram Capital) says “fair & reasonable”. To be expected. 

Key points (machine generated)

• Moutai is a premium baijiu essential for social gatherings in China, symbolizing respect and status.
• Despite strong financial performance, Moutai’s stock price has stagnated due to oversupply and pricing volatility.
• The long-term outlook for Moutai remains optimistic, with potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. 
• In this note, we talk about the ADS movement and trading dynamics.

• LiDAR TAM is underestimated – Current consensus misses the true size. Our work suggests 2030 TAM can be 70–120% higher than implied; Hesai best positioned as the market leader.
• Three Sub-segments Key –China LiDAR penetration reaching 60% penetration, Global ex-China ADAS (and LiDAR) adoption accelerating to 25–35%, and Robotics (logistics, humanoids, appliances) building upto $60bn market by 2030.
• Though the use-cases and upside for the sector can be far beyond current estimates, the industry faces a significant technology risk and the jury is still out.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SJM Holdings
• UST yields rose on Friday, led by the belly and long end, unwinding part of last week’s yield decline. The yield on the 2Y UST was up 1 bp at 3.56%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 4 bps to 4.06%.
• Equities held steady near record high levels. The S&P 500 was unchanged at 6,584, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4% to 22,141.

• BUTONG adopt a marketing-driven model, which lacks underlying innovation in products, may be effective during market expansion, but is prone to the problem of sluggish growth during valuation transition period.
• If the approach of promoting expansion by relying on high growth of low-profit business continues, profit space will be suppressed,which isn’t friendly to the narrative of capital market after IPO.
• 2025-2027 revenue growth could be 30%, 25%, 20% respectively. Considering the high growth in the short term as well as the concerns, P/E of 20-25x could be a comfortable range  

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
• SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK).

• Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV. 
• Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground. 
• The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV. 

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
• On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.

• “Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
• Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
• In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
• In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
• Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Strong industry sales of wheel loaders (+10.4% YoY) and excavators (+18.8%) in Jul-Aug suggested that the current consensus earnings forecasts are too conservative. 
• Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) will also benefit from the strength of the equities market, given it has an investment portfolio of Rmb2.4bn, or 18.6% of its market capitalisation.
• Given net cash equalling HK$2.02/share, or 66.1% of its share price, its 10.3x PER and 4.5% dividend yield for FY25F still appear undemanding. 

• Genfleet, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 204 million via a Hong Kong listing.
• In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product and key product and our thoughts on valuation.
• In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation provides margin of safety while sentiment is positive.

• HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
• H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
• SF Intra’s structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandom Corp (4917 JP) and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). Also, Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

• HSI broke out to fresh four-year highs, driven by Alibaba’s surge, with broad-based gains and rising single stock option activity.
• Market breadth strengthened across both price action and single stock options flows.
• Spot-Up/Vol-Up dynamics defined the week, as sectors with strong gains also posted the largest implied vol increases.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Change of mindset needed for HK/China as the bull markets broadens out
• Signs of excess are rife in many global markets, but no top yet signalled.

• Shenyang SASAC increased its Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60 per H Share, a 40.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The revised offer has been declared final. The revised terms signal that at least one of the substantial H shareholders would not accept the previous offer.
• While the revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders, the terms remain light. Therefore, there remains a risk around the 90% minimum acceptance condition. 

• New Oriental Education & Technology Group Ltd reported a strong performance in the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2025, highlighting both positive advancements and some challenges that may impact their future outlook.
• The company announced an 18.7% year-over-year revenue increase, excluding contributions from its East Buy segment, primarily driven by the expansion of new business ventures.
• These ventures include overseas test preparation, which grew by 15%, and adult and university student services, expanding by 17%.

• The Trump administration is considering putting “severe restrictions” on the drugs from China, which would negative for China biotech that mainly relies on licensing-out model. We share our views below.
• The key to assessing the future profitability of innovative drugs in China lies in their ability to control costs, not just in the growth of product sales.
• Sihuan achieved a turnaround and is undervalued. Just “medical aesthetics + cash” worth RMB15.3 billion valuation. The innovative drug business will provide decent upside potential, but with some concerns behind. 

• Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK) (CJ), which is principally engaged in the distribution of consumer electronic products, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH) holds ~60.13% of the shares outstanding. And 100% of the preference shares (76.7% of shares out). 
• This week, a final judgement, concerning monies owed, was ruled in CJ’s favour. The sum involved is ~30% of CJ’s market cap. 

• Supply jitters and China’s steel rebound lifted prices, as Rio faces local refining pressure and Brazil fire fears linger.
• Managed money participants are rebuilding bullish bets, lifting net longs and open interest, signalling revived demand and expectations of further gains.
• Prices pulled back after hitting the upper Bollinger band, hinting at profit-taking as traders watch the basis band for support.

• TAL Education Group reported robust financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing significant revenue growth while managing to improve operational efficiency.
• The company recorded net revenues of $575 million, marking a 38.8% increase year-over-year, with a notable rise in gross margin from 51.7% to 54.9%.
• Operating income improved significantly with TAL turning a previous operating loss into a profit of $14.3 million, demonstrating enhanced operational leverage and cost management.

• The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been rallying +37% since its plunge to 19260 on April 7th. It is +6% higher than its previous high in mid-March.
• The sentiment towards the index remains positive lately, and our model indicates the HSI  is a bit overbought but could go higher.
• The HSI INDEX starts to be toppish around 26874 (75% prob. of reversal). Covering past that point is not a bad idea, especially if the index is up 3-4 weeks.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• At present, we see three changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2025.

• Property management play Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Evergrande (3333 HK) controls 51.71%. This suspension is either a precursor to a Scheme; or (more likely) cash-strapped Evergrande is exiting, potentially triggering an unconditional MGO. 
• Evergrande, currently in liquidation, was delisted from the HKEx on the 25th August 2025 after failing to fulfil HKEx resumption guidance. The delisting was arguably symbolic, but remains a milestone.

• Back on the 3rd July 2025, Jilin Province Trust must a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.23x P/B!!) for troubled rural commercial bank Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK). 
• Shares have been suspended since 12th March. Jilin Jiutai have yet to publish their 2024 annual results. It’s doubtful shares will resume trading. Ever. 
• The Composite Doc Booklet is now out, with a H-share class meeting on the 24th October, the same day as the first close. The IFA (Gram) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
• Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
• Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.

• Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold suggests implied EV of US$40.4 billion and market cap of US$42.9 billion.
• Our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 14.3x is based on a 50% premium to the comps’ valuation multiple in 2026. 
• We believe a 50% premium valuation to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA multiple is appropriate for Zijin Gold mainly due its higher sales growth, EBITDA margins, and ROE than the comps. 

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
• The trading halt likely relates to Evergrande (3333 HK) liquidators’ efforts to sell Evergrande Group’s majority interest in Evergrande Services.
• The sale is likely to trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer. I estimate the potential offer price to be around HK$1.08 per share, a 17.8% premium to the last close.

• In Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Offer Expected As Parent (Likely) Exits., I speculated on the outcome of Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS)’s suspension due to the Takeovers Code. 
• EPS has now announced that the liquidators for Evergrande (3333 HK) have been fielding non-binding Offers for Evergrande’s 51.016% stake in EPS. Final proposals are expected to be submitted by November.
• With a view to maximizing proceeds, the liquidators will ideally seek a sole bidder, leading to a change of control. And an unconditional MGO.  Shares resume trading this morning.

• Since our initiation on 5 June 2024, China Medical Sytem’s share price is up 113% and the FPE has moved from less than 8 to close to 16 times.
• The gap valuation between US drug companies and CMS has largely closed with CMS trading at a premium to a number of US counterparts.
• The earnings outlook is largely flat since the initiation, implying the share price appreciation has been driven by a re-rating.

• Genfleet Therapeutics has filed for IPO to raise up to HK$1.6B. The company plans to sell 77.6M shares at HK$20.39 per share.
• Genfleet Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel treatment options in the fields of oncology with its core products focused on niche RAS inhibitor segment.
• Genfleet is rightly placed to rapidly advance their innovative product pipeline to later stages of development and commercialize. Pipeline envisages sustainable long term growth prospect.

• NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
• The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
• There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.

• NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
• The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
• While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect one index change for the HSTECH index in December 2025 based on the latest available data.

• NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
• The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Hong Kong’s Secular Bull Market continues with the index breaking  above its long term resistance levels.  Market breadth is expanding with 87% of stocks trading above their 200  (DMA).
• Hong Kong market valuations are well below all other Asian markets.  This year, the materials and healthcare sectors have been the best performers.
• Robosense Technology (2498 HK)  reported solid earnings in its LIDAR business with robotics posting surprising growth.  Deutsche Bank and China Renaissance both rate the company a BUY and raise targets.

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. 
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

• As you all know China Mobile (941 HK) has strategically ramped up its ownership in HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)  aiming at full control/takeover, while navigating regulatory approvals and competitive bids.
• The stock suffered a pretty big drop in the last 2 weeks, especially last week, when it reached 85.1. This week the stock started a small recovery rally.
• Our model finds China Mobile oversold (short-term) but we cannot rule out a further drop to/below 83.2 (Q3 support), the current pattern is bearish: brief rally then down again.

• On 3 July, Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70. IFA opines it is fair and reasonable. 
• The IFA analysis is flawed, and the offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, the offer represents the best-case scenario for minorities, as the timeline for resuming trading remains uncertain.
• While the 24 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge.

• Chery Auto is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next few weeks. It is expected that Chery Auto could raise about US$1.5 -2.0 billion in this IPO. 
• ROE is super high at 70%+. Chery Auto has one of the highest ROEs among all the major auto companies globally.
• Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.

• Chery positions itself in the economy and mainstream markets or accurately below RMB150,000.
• Chery provided more discounts than BYD, the price war launcher.
• Chery’s stores are far away from the city center in Shanghai.

• Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears. 
• The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. 
• A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines “as deposits are exhausted”.

• Zijin Mining is spinning off its seven overseas gold mines into Zijin Gold International, creating a dedicated, pure-play gold producer and positioning it for a Hong Kong IPO.
• The IPO proceeds will primarily fund mine upgrades and overseas M&A, with a portion earmarked to reinforce the balance sheet and corporate flexibility.
• With media reports suggesting a $3B+ IPO size and potential launch in September, coupled with gold rallying above $3,600/oz, investor appetite around the listing is notably heightened.

• Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
• Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. 
• There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. 

• China’s service sector is growing faster than manufacturing and construction, especially the business-to-business services, like IT Services, cloud services leasing and other business services.
• Among merchandize retail sectors, household and communication appliances, sports and recreational goods and gold and silver jewelry are growing the fastest. Some segments of food are enjoying healthy growth too.
• From a universe of 35 stocks in these sectors, we screen our favored 10, based on valuations more than justified by forecast earnings growth, high ROE and consensus Buy rating. 

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

• Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology (ANNTO HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CICC.
• It is the leading integrated supply chain logistics solutions provider in China.
• According to CIC, it achieved the fastest revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2024, and is amongst the top five comprehensive integrated supply chain logistics solutions providers in China

• MegaRobo Technologies (MRT HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is the leading provider of autonomous agents in robotics applications in China, dedicated to improving productivity and driving innovation for businesses across both laboratory and manufacturing settings.
• In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

• Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) will report its H1FY26 earnings in late November. We estimate a 15% revenue growth and 20-25% profit growth as the retail environment in HK improved slightly. 
• The company increased its restaurant count in HK to around 65 restaurants (vs 56 last year), whereas the count in China remained static at six restaurants. 
• The stock trades at a 5.8x PE, with a 9% dividend yield and 30% of the market capitalization in cash. 

• Reconova Technologies Co Ltd (1618370D CH)  is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Reconova provides a series of visual perception, visual cognition and visual reasoning intelligence products that are deeply applied across different scenarios, including civil aviation, commercial spaces, and freight logistics.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• This “high input, low output” model has led 160 Health into a profit predicament when its revenue failed to grow in tandem.The turnaround from losses to profits is far away.
• 160 Health operates as a distributor, but VBP has shifted more procurement activities to direct transactions between hospitals and manufacturers, thereby reducing pricing flexibility for intermediaries such as 160 Health.
• Valuation of 160 Health should be lower than PAGD, JD Health, Alibaba health, who have turned losses into profits and established mature business foundation and model, but higher than ClouDr.

• Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
• The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
• Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH’s peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.  
• Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
• The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.

• In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s valuation using Peter Lynch’s PEGY ratio.
• If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
• WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART’S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.

• “Beautiful Skew” came back slightly. Not huge, but OK. On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 0.8%.
• Last week’s short reco on Remegen (9995 HK) gained 8.3% on the week in Hs and the H underperformed the A by 7% Friday to Friday, 4.5% if VWAPed Monday.
• AH premia are likely still in a widening phase but weakness in speculative A-shares may dampen overall moves even if pairs are volatile. New reco this week.

• China TCM is still in the adjustment period due to CTCMG VBP and goodwill impairment loss. However, the new management is pushing for internal reforms, which is a good phenomenon.
• Rebound will come after China TCM fully digest the impact of VBP. Looking forward, annual profit of RMB1bn is still expected. Reasonable valuation is RMB10-15bn, which is just conservative estimate.
• As CNPGC still commits to resolving the horizontal competition issue, investors have reignited interest in betting on privatization of China TCM and potential merger with Taiji, which is a catalyst.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  is down nearly 20% since June’s lock-up expiry, despite strong 1H2025 results and subsequent analyst earnings upgrades.
• The stock trades at 22x FY26E, the low end of its YTD P/E range, with a PEG below 0.8x.
• China’s retail gold demand in 2Q2025 has shifted toward investment products – a trend that could support Laopu’s mostly investment-driven sales.

• Mabgeek, a China-based clinical-stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
• In this note, we look at the company’s core product, MG-K10.
• We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

• Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) entered into agreements with Braveheart Bio, to grant Braveheart an exclusive worldwide right of HRS-1893, a selective myosin inhibitor that treats hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.
• The only approved product available worldwide is Bristol Myer Squibb’s Camzyos (mavacamten) which was approved for marketing by FDA in April 2022 for obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.
• With Robust R&D and future potential drug candidates under its belt, Jiangsu Hengrui continues to remain an attractive bet, with a long-term perspective.

• Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• In this note, we talk about the updates from its most recent filings.

• HK Department of Statistics data show the jewellery and watch retail market is improving, with June and July sales up 6.8% and 9.4% YoY, respectively.
• China is by far Oriental Watch (398 HK) ‘s most important market, accounting for 78% of sales. and sales are stable there so far. 
• The company holds cash equal to 50% of market capitalization; we forecast a H1 FY26 dividend of $0.22/share (annualized ~12.5% yield) on an 8.5x P/E.