Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Zhongsheng Group, Oriental Watch, LG Household & Health Care, Tata Motors Ltd, Home Depot Inc, Target Corp, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index Rebalance: Baby Steps; Double Inclusion for Haier Smart Home
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Four Sets of Changes; And Some Close Calls
  • Oriental Watch Mgmt Call: Big Dividend Yet Again, 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash with >15% Yield Post Rally
  • Light at the End of the Dark Tunnel for Korean Cosmetics?
  • SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)
  • Home Depot Inc: Managing Labor Shortages & Other Developments
  • Target Corporation: Partnership With Apple & Other Drivers
  • Lowe’s Companies: Divestment Of Canadian Retail Operations & Other Drivers
  • Raising % of Female Board Directors Requires Solving a Variety of Challenges in Reality

HSI Index Rebalance: Baby Steps; Double Inclusion for Haier Smart Home

By Brian Freitas


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Four Sets of Changes; And Some Close Calls

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 adds and 4 deletes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance. The only surprises are some non-adds and non-deletes.
  • Using prices from the close on 18 November, estimated one-way turnover is 4.64% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,612m at the close on 2 December.
  • Short interest is larger on the deletes than the adds. However, at 17 days of ADV to cover and 11.7% of float, short interest on Zhongsheng Group is huge.

Oriental Watch Mgmt Call: Big Dividend Yet Again, 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash with >15% Yield Post Rally

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) paid a 31-cent dividend in its H1FY23 result on the 16th, equating to an annualized dividend yield of 15% on the current share price.
  • The outlook for the rest of the year is much brighter, given the recovery in China and the inability of the Chinese to travel. October numbers were strong.
  • The stock trades at a 6.7x PE, with more than 50% of the market capitalization in cash.  In slightly better market conditions, this could be a 6 HKD stock.

Light at the End of the Dark Tunnel for Korean Cosmetics?

By Douglas Kim

  • We believe that there is finally some light showing at the end of the dark tunnel for the two leading Korean cosmetics companies LG H&H and Amorepacific Corp.
  • These two stocks have underperformed the market in the past year but have started to outperform the market in the past three weeks. 
  • There are credible signs that indoor mask wearing in Korea will be eliminated in Korea on/near March 2023 and that the inbound visitors to Korea will continue to increase significantly.

SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

By Brian Freitas


Home Depot Inc: Managing Labor Shortages & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Home Depot delivered another good result and surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company continued to observe high demand for home renovation projects throughout the third quarter.
  • Sales growth for both Pro and DIY was good, with Pro surpassing DIY.

Target Corporation: Partnership With Apple & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Target’s third quarter results were a mixed bag as the company’s revenues surpassed Wall Street expectations but it missed out on meeting earnings expectations.
  • Their top-line continues to profit from increases in guest visitation and unit share gains across all of their main categories.
  • While their performance in the third quarter compared favorably with the previous one, the period’s tendencies were very different.

Lowe’s Companies: Divestment Of Canadian Retail Operations & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s delivered an impressive set of results this quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company’s Pro business maintained its momentum, resulting from the success of its Pro efforts and the tenacity of the demand for home renovation.
  • Their ongoing focus on productivity and solid sales growth contributed to improved operating performance which ensured the earnings beat.

Raising % of Female Board Directors Requires Solving a Variety of Challenges in Reality

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 72.9% of companies in prime market complied with the principles of Corporate Governance Code, which defines the concept of ensuring diversity, but no specific targets were set in their disclosures.
  • If % female directors were raised to 30%, they should be recruited from within the company to executive directors, but very few companies have % female managers exceeding 30%.
  • Gender discrimination in hiring, gender disparity in access to higher education, issues of leaving/returning to work due to childbirth and child rearing, and gender discrimination in workplace must be resolved.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Zomato, Alibaba Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, RPSG Ventures Limited, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Walmart, Tapestry Inc, Ralph Lauren, Tyson Foods Inc Cl A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 High Conviction: Zomato – Home Delivering Laziness
  • Alibaba – OP Beat Driven By Cost Cutting Masks Dissapointments Everywhere Else
  • Lifestyle International (1212 HK)’s Wide Spread Heading into the 21 November Vote
  • RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up; VC Business Is Germinating to the Next-Level
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (18 November 2022)
  • Walmart Inc: The Walmart Creator Platform & Other Drivers
  • Tapestry Inc: Major Drivers
  • Ralph Lauren: Collaboration With Fortnite & Other Developments
  • Tyson Foods: Major Drivers

2023 High Conviction: Zomato – Home Delivering Laziness

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zomato is one of the largest food delivery platforms in India. It was listed in Jul 21 and after initially doubling, its shares are now trading below its IPO price.
  • It has grown its food delivery GOV by 3.5x over FY19-22 and growth remains strong, while profitablity has been improving.
  • Its recent venture into quick commerce should allow for better fleet utilisation and hence, better longer term growth and profitability.

Alibaba – OP Beat Driven By Cost Cutting Masks Dissapointments Everywhere Else

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK) bounced 7.8% yesterday following an OP beat of 24.4% through cost-controls but overall results were quite disappointing with revenue falling a touch below consensus at RMB 207.2bn.
  • Alibaba’s cash cows are growing no more, Thus, the company is focusing on ways to improve its profitability. 
  • Meanwhile, the other growth avenues that Alibaba was proudly speaking of have pretty much disappeared with the company forced to cut down investments in these growing businesses.

Lifestyle International (1212 HK)’s Wide Spread Heading into the 21 November Vote

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)’s vote on Mr Lau’s offer of HK$5.00 per share is at 10 am on Monday, 21 November. The wide spread of 6.6% reflects vote risk.
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • Ongoing weak Hong Kong retail sales and peers’ slightly de-rating should lower the vote risk. Headcount test not applicable. While light, we continue to expect the offer to succeed.

RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up; VC Business Is Germinating to the Next-Level

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Key highlight of RPSG Ventures’ (RPSGV) Q2FY23 results was the FMCG business which reported revenues of INR 125cr, suggesting an annualized run-rate of INR 500cr vs INR 430cr QoQ.
  • RPSGV is doing all the right things to scale up its FMCG business. Its Sports venture also holds lot of promise.
  • RPSGV’s Venture Capital (VC) Fund that focuses on investing in D2C startups made a lucrative exit in one of its investments which generated 7x MOIC in just 4 years.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (18 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Walmart Inc: The Walmart Creator Platform & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Walmart’s stock has climbed to a new high after the company delivered strong results and surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • In Q3, strong sales were achieved in each of its segments and its U.S. comparable sales increased sequentially by 8.2% thanks to higher average ticket sizes and more transactions.
  • Walmart International experienced strong constant currency sales growth of 13.3%, driven primarily by Flipkart and Walmex, while Sam’s Club USA posted double-digit comps growth of 10.3%, excluding fuel and tobacco, for the 11th consecutive quarter.

Tapestry Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite the challenging environment, Tapestry’s first quarter results were strong and the company’s performance exceeded market expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • This result highlights the company’s transformation into a customer-centric and data-driven organization, which have helped it effectively navigate the challenging climate.
  • Their direct-to-consumer operations grew again in this quarter thanks to the strong management focus on building omnichannel experiences.

Ralph Lauren: Collaboration With Fortnite & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren’s previous quarter results were strong and the company managed an all-around beat.
  • Their top-line continued to increase in the previous quarter, with revenues rising 13% in constant currency and 5% on a reported basis.
  • The success for this quarter was once again aided by good constant currency growth across all 3 regions.

Tyson Foods: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tyson Foods’ stock has been on a downward trajectory for a while and the recent results did not help the situation.
  • Consumer demand for protein is largely stable in this difficult macroeconomic context with record-high inflation.
  • Volume performance increased in the fourth quarter because of their investments in brands and merchandising, which raised portfolio market share.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Oriental Land, Alibaba Group, Taste Gourmet Group, Shimamura, Porsche AG, Adeia, Lear Corp, Capri Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside
  • Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence
  • Shimamura Set for Another Record
  • STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible
  • ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation
  • Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments
  • Capri Holdings: Major Drivers

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

By Travis Lundy


Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • Revenue began to grow in 2Q23 after the zero growth in 1Q23.
  • The operating margin improved to 12.1% in 2Q23 versus 7.5% in 2Q22.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 38% and a price target of HK$108.

Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK)  reported its H1 2023 result with profit of 32 mn HKD up 28% YoY, backed by subsidies due to restrictions earlier in the year.
  • Net cash rose by 52 mn HKD (almost 12.4% of market capitalization) to 117 mn HKD HoH (28% of market cap). Nine mn HKD in subsidies are outstanding.
  • The company declared 4.8 cents of dividend (9.1% annualized yield), in addition to repurchasing and canceling >2% of the shares outstanding recently.

Shimamura Set for Another Record

By Michael Causton

  • Like Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP), Shimamura (8227 JP) has been a beneficiary of both household budget worries during Covid and inflation concerns since. 
  • The apparel retailer has also worked hard to develop better cost performance ranges and more exciting marketing through collaborations with influencers, helping regain footfall levels.
  • Shimamura has clearly regained momentum and looks set to continue to benefit from consumer fears over inflation and ongoing shifts in spending towards low-price retailers.

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
  • Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
  • In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.

ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ADEA reported third quarter results that still included the financial results of its products business prior to the spin-off. ADEA generates revenue from IP licenses, creating a steady revenue stream
  • ADEA expanding its base of licensees over the next year should set a pathway to ADEA reaching baseline revenue of $500 million a year from $375 million currently
  • ADEA applying free cash flow to reducing its debt balance should yield a higher valuation for the stock price

Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Lear Corporation saw a significantly improved set of results in the last quarter and it managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
  • The improved results reflect higher production volumes as well as its strong new business backlog.
  • Core operating earnings and sales increased and in both e-Systems and seating, operating margins improved as compared to the previous year.

Capri Holdings: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Capri Holdings delivered quite a strong result which happened to be an all-around beat.
  • With the three pillars, Greca, Virtus, and La Medusa making significant progress, the goal of the company is to position Versace as the prominent luxury leather house.
  • Capri also expanded its core lines that incorporate iconic house codes for broadening the reach of Versace.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Samyang Holdings, Lotte Confectionery, Tencent Music and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Just One Change
  • KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023
  • TME: Online Music Biz Resumes Growth but Social Entertainment Further Drops

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Just One Change

By Brian Freitas


KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings will be deleted from the KOSPI 200 index.
  • The rebalances of these Korean indices are regularly updated twice a year. The changes to these indices will be effective starting 9 December. 
  • The potential exclusion candidates for KOSPI 200 in 2023 include K Car, Handsome, HS Enterprise, Zinus, and Hyundai Home Shopping. 

TME: Online Music Biz Resumes Growth but Social Entertainment Further Drops

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent Music (TME US)  reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue declined 5.6% YoY to RMB7.4bn (vs consensus RMB7.0bn) while adjusted OP for the quarter increased 14.0% YoY to RMB765m.
  • Revenue from social entertainment services decreased 20% YoY which was partially helped offset by 18.8% YoY increase in online music services revenues.
  • GPM and OPM improved due to huge spending cuts on content, revenue sharing and S&M and we are yet to see if TME can sustain this without compromising user growth.

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Daily Brief Consumer: I-Tail, Sapphire Foods, Bikaji Foods, Dollar Index, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A, The Walt Disney Co, Vivid Seats, Kura Sushi Inc, Hershey Co/The and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • Sapphire Foods IPO – Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry
  • Bikaji Foods International IPO Trading – One of the Strongest Demand This Year
  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary
  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The Find Platform & Other Drivers
  • Walt Disney Company: Merchandise Marketing Through Disney+ & Other Drivers
  • Riding The Entertainment Boom
  • That’s a Wrap, Kura Exits 2022 on a High Note
  • Hershey Co: Major Drivers

I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB)  .
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at various aspects of the deal. In this note, we talk about its 3Q22 updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sapphire Foods IPO – Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Nov 2021, Sapphire Foods Limited (SFL), one of Yum Brand’s franchisees in the Indian subcontinent, raised around US$280m in its Indian IPO. 
  • The lock-up on its shareholders will expire soon, with a number of PE funds on its register
  • In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

Bikaji Foods International IPO Trading – One of the Strongest Demand This Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN) , an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO.
  • Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.

I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
  • The Russell already hit this target while the S&P is closing in, less than 1% away.
  • Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation: The Find Platform & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hyatt delivered a strong performance in the quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • With outstanding bookings for upcoming periods during the quarter, group room revenue also saw growth during the third quarter.
  • Besides, they launched The Find platform, a new experiences platform, for members of its World of Hyatt loyalty program.

Walt Disney Company: Merchandise Marketing Through Disney+ & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Disney had highly disappointing quarter and failed to meet the market expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The quarter saw the company reaching the highest point in DTC operating losses to date which is why operating margins were significantly below analyst expectations.
  • This quarter was strong for products, experiences, and parks that continue to deliver good results despite Hurricane Lan.

Riding The Entertainment Boom

By subSPAC

  • Online Ticketing platform SeatGeek has seen a surge in demand from the pandemic reopening, as consumers have spent extravagantly on entertainment experiences such as concerts, theatre, and sporting events.
  • With fewer live events and supply shortages due to prevailing scalpers, fans have increasingly turned to online resellers to access these experiences.
  • However, the company is now expected to face significant challenges, including a slowdown in demand and a regulatory crackdown from the government limiting the potential fees that can be charged.

That’s a Wrap, Kura Exits 2022 on a High Note

By Investment Talk

  • Despite now being valued at ~$635 million (down ~32% from ATHs) Kura Sushi, the small-time restaurant operator with 40 stores across the United States, continues to boast an overzealous market valuation.
  • Perhaps it’s their ability to consistently beat expectations. Perhaps it’s because they remain undercovered and somewhat illiquid for their size (the parent organisation owns a considerable amount of outstanding shares).
  • I can’t be sure, nor do I really care. After reporting Q4 earnings last week, Kura rounded off the year in style, continuing to demonstrate a healthy recovery in demand for their service.

Hershey Co: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hershey had a decent result and managed to deliver another all-around beat despite the impact of inflationary headwinds and supply chain issues.
  • The company managed to produce a substantial volume growth despite price increases to counter inflation.
  • The consumer continues to place a high priority on snacks, especially sweet sweets which is why the trends within their categories have really held strong.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Brilliance China Automotive, Rakuten Inc, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Starbucks Corp, Marriott International, Mcdonald’s Corp, Monster Beverage and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins
  • Rakuten Mobile: Expecting Losses To Shrink With Symphony & Energy Turning Profitable
  • Back in Hong Kong stocks
  • Starbucks Inc: Divestment Of Seattle’s Best Coffee & Other Developments
  • Marriott International: Acquiring The City Express Brand Portfolio & Other Developments
  • McDonald’s Corporation: Major Drivers
  • Monster Beverages: Major Drivers

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
  • Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
  • Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.

Rakuten Mobile: Expecting Losses To Shrink With Symphony & Energy Turning Profitable

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • With e-commerce and fintech segments performing reasonably well, Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s Q3 results were mostly in line with expectations.
  • However, the Mobile segment failed to live up to expectations with the segment’s operating loss narrowing by just ¥3.4bn to ¥120.9bn in 3Q22.
  • Nonetheless, we are excited about the prospects of Rakuten Mobile through the success of Rakuten Symphony as the business is close to signing 12 new corporate customers.

Back in Hong Kong stocks

By Turtles all the way down

  • Early this year I was quite pessimistic on Hong Kong stocks.
  • But since then the Hang Seng is down another 20% or so. A lot of stocks with 9-10%+ dividend yields are laying around.
  • I should have been a bit quicker writing this up, but then you are getting it for free.

Starbucks Inc: Divestment Of Seattle’s Best Coffee & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Starbucks’ stock has been on a roll after a solid Q4 and fiscal 2022 which surpassed Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • With improving foot traffic, the company recently expanded its presence in the Italian market as well.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Marriott International: Acquiring The City Express Brand Portfolio & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Marriott delivered a mixed set of results for the third quarter.
  • The leisure demand for the quarter remained strong and far above 2019 levels.
  • Travelers are apparently continuing to mix pleasure and work visits, according to third quarter day-of-the-week trends.

McDonald’s Corporation: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • McDonald’s delivered a solid Q3 performance surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts which is why its stock price has been surging over the past few weeks.
  • The company’s sustained resiliency is demonstrated by its quarterly global comp sales, which increased by 9.5%.
  • In the quarter, the chicken was a significant contributor to comp sales growth across all of their key markets, and they will continue to concentrate on expanding their worldwide market share in this significant category.

Monster Beverages: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monster delivered a mixed set of results with record third-quarter net sales of $1.62 billion which was below analyst expectations.
  • Their cost of sales increased significantly during Q3 of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021, primarily because of higher costs for ingredients and other inputs, such as secondary packaging materials and co-packing fees, higher logistical costs, higher aluminum can cost, and mix of geographic and product sales.
  • Monster’s strength remains its wide distribution versus smaller peers that helped the company create a strong demand for its energy drinks even in lull periods.

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Daily Brief Consumer: I-Tail, Seven & I Holdings, Bloomberry Resorts and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update
  • Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado
  • Bloomberry Resorts Corp: 3Q22 Revenue Surge Reinforces Our Strong Buy Guidance

I-Tail Corporation IPO: A Strong 3Q Results Update

By Arun George


Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

By Michael Causton

  • Seven & I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.
  • Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.
  • This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group’s domestic business.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp: 3Q22 Revenue Surge Reinforces Our Strong Buy Guidance

By Howard J Klein

  • While Macau remains hostage to Beijing’s zero tolerance covid policy, Philippine gaming has taken the lead in ASEAN recovery ramp.
  • The Soliare property at manila has outperformed expectations on the basis of pent up demand beginning to show in domestic player revenue. 
  • CEO Razon has confirmed continuing expansion plans at Cebu and Emerald Bay to be completed before the end of 2023. Both will be accretive to group EBITDA.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Brilliance China Automotive, Tata Motors ADR, Etsy Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba
  • Etsy Inc: New Image Search Feature & Other Developments

Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside

By Victoria Li

  • No substantive progress is achieved on Brilliance Group’s bankruptcy restructuring so far.
  • Besides estimated max Rmb6 per share, or HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E, shareholders may get more cash dividends in the next few years
  • Our enterprise value analysis shows Brilliance China’s fair value could be as high as HHD21.9 per share, including estimated HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. 
  • Canada’s Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU), one of Australia’s largest energy companies.
  • This OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. 

Etsy Inc: New Image Search Feature & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy reported a strong set of results that were beyond market expectations with a strong adjusted EBITDA margin and growth in revenue.
  • Also, it had some early incorporation of buyer interests and taste to create more personalized and predictable recommendations.
  • The company held Etsy Up: Holiday edition, its foremost global holiday kickoff event for sellers all over the world.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Wynn Macau Ltd, Rakuten Inc, Starbucks Corp, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Yum! Brands Inc, Estee Lauder Companies Cl A, Comcast Corp Class A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I Parts with Sogo & Seibu and Pockets ¥200bn
  • Weekly Wrap – 11 Nov 2022
  • Rakuten (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee
  • Starbucks Opens its 6,000th Store in China
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)
  • Yum Brands: Major Drivers
  • Estee Lauder: The Balmain Partnership & Other Drivers
  • Comcast Inc: New Broadband Initiative & Other Drivers

Seven & I Parts with Sogo & Seibu and Pockets ¥200bn

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Earlier today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)’s board decided to sell the underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu to the SoftBank Group controlled Fortress Investment Group for around ¥200bn.
  • The sale of Sogo & Seibu looks like a positive development from all angles, but it could be already priced in as the rumours were there from February 2022 onwards.
  • Meanwhile, there are downside risks to Seven & I shares in the short term from falling gas prices and rising inflation in the US.

Weekly Wrap – 11 Nov 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  3. Sunac China Holdings
  4. Evergrande
  5. Central China Real Estate

and more…


Rakuten (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee

By Kirk Boodry

  • Financial results were largely as expected with good news in fintech on a return to double-digit revenue growth but continued steep losses in mobile
  • Mobile subscriptions fell by 280K (-9% over two quarters) as users of free plans churned off keeping YoY growth to 2%
  • The company is keen on the potential once platinum band spectrum is available but that is up to two years away

Starbucks Opens its 6,000th Store in China

By Investment Talk

  • While the world moves on from the events of 2020 and the pandemic fades through the rear-view mirror, a cluster of fallout still clings to Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee retailer.
  • The operational stress of the pandemic, as well as concerns over in-store safety1 , catalysed demand for unionisation in the company’s most integral market, the United States.
  • Since the first store won its union vote in Buffalo, New York, in December 2021, over 330 stores in 38 states have filed for an election, yielding more than 250 successfully unionised stores.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Yum Brands: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Yum Brands’ stock has been on a solid upward trajectory off-late after the company reported an impressive top-line growth this quarter.
  • Even though it missed out on earnings, the company achieved a 10% system sales increase, supported by 6% unit growth and 5% same-store sales growth which did drive positive sentiment in the markets.
  • KFC did an excellent job of accelerating transaction growth through its omnichannel strategy, which helped to improve comps sequentially from the previous quarter.

Estee Lauder: The Balmain Partnership & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Estee Lauder has shown some reversal in the past few days despite delivering a mixed set of results.
  • Besides, 13 brands had organic growth, growing by high single digits to account for more than half of their organic sales.
  • Overall, we remain neutral on Estee Lauder and maintain our ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Comcast Inc: New Broadband Initiative & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast delivered an all-around beat in its recent results and its performance in its Cable Communications business in the third quarter remained impressive.
  • However, it operates in a turbulent business environment in terms of increased competition from the new entrants as well as depressed move activity.
  • Comcast has recently unveiled an ambitious broadband initiative promising to pass 50 million businesses and homes with the combination of Wi-Fi and 10G-enabled broadband by 2025.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tata Motors ADR, Golden Agri Resources, LG Energy Solution, Zomato, Coupang, BYD, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Booking Holdings, PriyoShop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Motors ADS Delisting – Here We Go Again – Lots of Fun To Be Had!
  • Tata Motors (TTM) To Delist ADSs: Details & Potential Trades
  • Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP) – FTSE Selling in December
  • Assessing LG Energy Solution’s Flow Imbalance Situation
  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | Food Delivery Expected to Continue Improving
  • Coupang: Time Ditch EV/Sales and Focus on Profitability-Based Multiples
  • BYD Launches Luxury EV Line in Challenge to High-End Foreign Brands
  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Opportunity Knocks as Depressed Valuation Cannot Reflect Outlook
  • Booking Holdings: Major Drivers
  • Bangladesh-Based B2B Ecommerce Firm Eyes $5m Raise

Tata Motors ADS Delisting – Here We Go Again – Lots of Fun To Be Had!

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, with earnings, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) announced that it would delist its ADS, making an application on or around 13 January.
  • This sounds relatively benign because since 2004 when the ADS was listed, local funding capacity has increased substantially. It may no longer be needed. 
  • But it is MUCH more interesting than that. There is lots of fun to be had here. 

Tata Motors (TTM) To Delist ADSs: Details & Potential Trades

By Brian Freitas


Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP) – FTSE Selling in December

By Brian Freitas

  • FTSE has announced that it will be changing Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)‘s nationality from Singapore to Ineligible at the close on 16 December. 
  • This means the stock will be deleted from the FTSE All-World Index at the close on 16 December. We estimate passive trackers will need to sell multiple days ADV.
  • Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its peers but has outperformed them over the last year. There could be a short-term reversal.

Assessing LG Energy Solution’s Flow Imbalance Situation

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Energy’s virtually locked-up shares rise to nearly 95%. This should at least partially explain why its price has substantially outperformed the KOSPI in recent months, showing strong downward rigidity.
  • Additional long-term money equivalent to 2-3% of SO can come in for 5% float shares. There is no precedent for a float crunch of this magnitude among top-cap local stocks.
  • It seems necessary to reconsider taking a shorting position for LG Energy even after the 9th of next month when the short-term passives inflow situation is completed.

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | Food Delivery Expected to Continue Improving

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Over the last five quarters, monthly transacting customers have increased by 36%, QoQ, the pace could be slower, but the trend remains upwards. 
  • AOVs and Order frequency have the potential to inch up, but only over the long term.
  • Take rates are inching up, delivery fees are going higher, and with a higher market share Zomato (ZOMATO IN) ‘s food delivery business is expected to continue improving. 

Coupang: Time Ditch EV/Sales and Focus on Profitability-Based Multiples

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, Coupang (CPNG US) is no longer a growth stock with revenue expected to start falling on a YoY basis from 4Q22 onwards.
  • Therefore, we think Coupang’s current valuation, which is based on inflated revenue estimates should become redundant.
  • We think a no-growth, low-margin business like Coupang does not deserve to trade north of 10.0x OP, whereas it is currently trading at 15.6x the best-case OP estimate.

BYD Launches Luxury EV Line in Challenge to High-End Foreign Brands

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese carmaker BYD Co. Ltd. has unveiled its first luxury brand of electric vehicles (EV), joining its peers in efforts to impress wealthy domestic buyers
  • The launch marks BYD’s latest step into the high-end auto market as it tries to outgrow its image as a manufacturer of mid- to low-end vehicles
  • BYD is China’s largest EV and hybrid vehicle manufacturer by sales. In October, its wholesale shipments surpassed 200,000 for the second consecutive month

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Opportunity Knocks as Depressed Valuation Cannot Reflect Outlook

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Acceleration in earnings growth at Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) is an encouraging trend. We are happy to see expansion in both gross and operating margin in 3Q22.
  • Further channel additions for Casarte and digitalisation efforts will bring positive profitability impact. Meanwhile, we welcome HSH’s increase in engagement of suppliers in product design process.
  • Overseas growth has also accelerated in 3Q22 and there are numerous opportunities for HSH to expand its high-end presence and introduce new products in developed country markets. 

Booking Holdings: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Booking Holdings delivered a positive set of results in the quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • Their consumers reserved 240 million room nights in Q3, just under 0.25 million more than in Q3 2019.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Bangladesh-Based B2B Ecommerce Firm Eyes $5m Raise

By Tech in Asia

  • Bangladesh-based ecommerce startup PriyoShop is looking to add US$5 million in a bridge funding round to its cart.
  • Founded in 2020, PriyoShop handles commerce through its app and manages logistics in locations like Dhaka and Chattogram through its own fleet.
  • The company said that third-party logistics companies then take on shipping across the rest of Bangladesh.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars