Category

Consumer

Aug 13
0

Daily Brief Consumer: 52TOYS Development, Kalyan Jewellers, Tencent Music, Silver Consumer Electricals, Just Eat Takeaway.com NV, The Keepers Holdings, Nick Scali Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd, Ambev , Riken Vitamin and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 52Toys Development Pre-IPO: Steady Expansion But in a Highly Fragmented Market
  • Kalyan Jewellers: Deleveraging “Pause,” Capital Absorption Rising, Contrasting Capital Allocation
  • Tencent Music (TME): 2Q25, Concert Revenue Booming, Margin Hitting Historical High
  • Silver Consumer Electricals Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – August 2025
  • Strong Momentum Underpins Nick Scali’s FY26
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Ambev SA: Revenue Management & Pricing Strategy for Brand Equity Realization In An Increasingly Competitive Beverage Market!
  • Riken Vitamin (4526 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

52Toys Development Pre-IPO: Steady Expansion But in a Highly Fragmented Market

By Hong Jie Seow

  • 52TOYS Development (TOY HK)  is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • 52Toys Development is one of the leading IP toy companies in China, with a portfolio of over 100 proprietary and licensed intellectual properties (IPs) as of Dec 2024.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Kalyan Jewellers: Deleveraging “Pause,” Capital Absorption Rising, Contrasting Capital Allocation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Management has paused its previously articulated plan to reduce debt by INR 300–400 crore.
  • The pause defers balance‑sheet de‑risking and redirects internal cash toward a lean‑credit procurement pilot and a new regional‑brand roll‑out (inventory‑heavy upfront), raising working‑capital intensity just as gross‑margin mix is shifting.
  • Near‑term FCF could compress despite strong topline; margin delivery needs to outpace capital absorption to sustain the rerating. Market reaction (‑9% on the day) shows low tolerance for capital‑allocation ambiguity.

Tencent Music (TME): 2Q25, Concert Revenue Booming, Margin Hitting Historical High

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q25, non-subscriber music revenue surged by 47% YoY and total revenue grew by 18% YoY.
  • The operating margin hit the historical high since TME’s IPO.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 9% and a price target of US$27.60 for the year end 2025.

Silver Consumer Electricals Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Silver Consumer Electricals (2301263D IN) is looking to raise US$160m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors, ICICI, JM Financial, Choice Capital Advisors.
  • Silver Consumer Electricals Limited (SCEL) is one of India’s leading manufacturers of electrical consumer durables and agricultural equipment, operating through own-branded sales (“Silver” and “Bediya”) and OEM supply
  • The company operates India’s largest single-location, vertically integrated ECD and agri-equipment plant in Rajkot, Gujarat.

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The EC’s conditional clearance removes the final regulatory risk for Prosus’s €20.30/share JET acquisition, leaving only procedural steps. Current 0.69% spread reflects a near-99% implied probability of deal completion.
  • Structural remedies (Delivery Hero stake cut, governance exit, voting restrictions) ensure JET and Delivery Hero remain independent competitors. An independent trustee will oversee compliance under the European Commission’s binding commitments.
  • Early entrants capture ~9.6% annualized return; late entrants ~4.0%. Post-clearance, the market shows minimal mispricing, making the trade appealing only for short-term, low-volatility capital deployment strategies.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – August 2025

By Sameer Taneja

Strong Momentum Underpins Nick Scali’s FY26

By FNArena

  • A strong second-half performance in A&NZ and improving gross margins in the UK have propelled Nick Scali shares to new heights.
  • -Nick Scali’s FY25 results exceed expectations -A strong 2H for A&NZ, UK gross margin gains -Successful measures to improve cost base -Ord Minnett expects UK profits in FY28

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • UST yield movements were muted yesterday, amid an absence of macro news and ahead of the CPI data release today.
  • The yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST were unchanged at 3.77% and 4.29%, respectively.
  • Equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.3% to 6,373 and 21,385, respectively. 

Ambev SA: Revenue Management & Pricing Strategy for Brand Equity Realization In An Increasingly Competitive Beverage Market!

By Baptista Research

  • The recent performance of Ambev, detailed in their quarterly report, presents a mixed outlook for the company’s future.
  • Key financial metrics demonstrate resilience in the face of various challenges, but also reveal areas of concern that investors should closely monitor.
  • Positively, Ambev managed to deliver a high single-digit organic EBITDA increase, achieving a 110 basis point margin expansion despite difficult market conditions primarily attributed to adverse weather.

Riken Vitamin (4526 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/26 revenue was JPY23.3bn, a 1.6% YoY decline, with Domestic Chemicals increasing and Overseas business declining.
  • Operating profit decreased by 6.2% YoY to JPY2.4bn, impacted by FX losses and increased advertising and logistics costs.
  • Consumer foods revenue increased YoY, while commercial foods decreased; processed food ingredients and chemical products saw YoY growth.

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Aug 12
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Ashimori Industry, Ola Electric, Kolon Mobility Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL), Yomeishu Seizo, Tata Motors, Kalyan Jewellers, CyberAgent Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September
  • Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
  • Bluestone Jewellery IPO – Moving from Online to Offline. Thoughts on Valuation
  • Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Closure of Short Call on Tata Motors
  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | The Capital Sinkhole
  • CyberAgent: Newly Released Games Drive Growth with an Upward Revision to Guidance
  • To Companies that Adopt DOE: It’s Good to Consider ROE, but Are They Falling into Short-Termism?

[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
  • It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender. 
  • But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.

Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Kolon Corp (002020 KS)(KC) is seeking to delist 75.23%-held Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS) (KM), an auto importer.
  • Via a dual approach, KC is offering ₩4,000 per KM common share and ₩5,950 per KM preferred share. Any untendered shares will be swapped into KC shares.
  • The tender offer period is from 8th August to 8th September, with payment on the 10th September. There is no minimum acceptance condition.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
  • Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Bluestone Jewellery IPO – Moving from Online to Offline. Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle (BJL) is planning to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand. It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds. 
  • Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
  • PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.

Closure of Short Call on Tata Motors

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Post Q4FY25 results,we had presented our case for shorting Tata Motors in May 2025, anticipating a challenging quarter ahead.We now recommend closing the short position,with reasons explained in this insight
  • The company reported a very challenging Q1FY26, with JLR EBIT crashing to 4.0% (vs 8.9% YoY). The India passenger car business also faced similar pressure.
  • The only segment to deliver stable performance was the commercial vehicle division.

Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | The Capital Sinkhole

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) Management paused INR 350-400 crore debt reduction after 90 days, now planning INR 2,700 crore capital consumption without clear justification.
  • Candere losses increased 5X while management admits e-commerce isn’t their strength, yet continues expanding with new regional brand initiatives.
  • Stock trades at 44x P/E NTM above 3-year average despite questionable capital allocation and non-quantifiable efficiency claims from management.

CyberAgent: Newly Released Games Drive Growth with an Upward Revision to Guidance

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 3QFY09/2025 results on Friday aftermarket. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates with an upward revision to full-year guidance.
  • Gaming segment has begun to see recovery driven by the strong performance of newly released game titles which have become a hit. There are several new titles up for release.
  • Though CA’s share price has moved up with recovery in games and improved profitability of AbemaTV, we think there is further upside.

To Companies that Adopt DOE: It’s Good to Consider ROE, but Are They Falling into Short-Termism?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With many companies unable to increase their ROE, the company also intends to demonstrate its commitment to improving ROE by strengthening shareholder returns through the adoption of DOE.
  • The increase in the number of companies adopting DOE may be a reflection of the fact that many companies are forecasting lower profits this fiscal year.
  • Of course, returning excess cash on hand while considering ROE isn’t a bad thing, but it’s also a concern that few companies are taking steps to ensure medium-to-long-term growth.

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Aug 11
0

Daily Brief Consumer: DigiPlus Interactive , Alibaba, Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL), Haier Smart Home , Sony Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock
  • ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock
  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle IPO – All That Glitters Is Not Gold
  • Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update
  • Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

By Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.
  • On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.

Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle IPO – All That Glitters Is Not Gold

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Founded by Gaurav Singh Kushwaha, who holds 18% stake (Pre-IPO), Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN) is an omni-channel jewellery brand in India.
  • Company experienced losses since its inception, which is attributed to its growth and expansion strategy. As of March 31, 2025, the company had accumulated losses amounting to INR 24,583.31 million.
  • Bluestone is valued at market cap of INR 78230 million,which is 4.4x FY25 revenue.Given ongoing losses, negative cash flows,promoter share pledge, and aggressive expansion, we believe it’s a steep ask.

Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update

By Michael Fritzell

  • Haier is the world’s largest home appliances company, with particular strength in refrigerators and washing machines. It’s got multiple world-renowned brands, including Haier, GE Appliance, Fisher & Paykel, Candy and more.

  • The company was largely built by visionary entrepreneur Zhang Ruimin, who created a corporate culture unique in China and beyond. He spearheaded Haier’s international expansion, acquiring companies such as America’s GE Appliances and Italy’s Candy, giving it local distribution networks for its lower-priced Haier offering.

  • In late 2020, Haier Smart Home merged with its separately-listed distribution subsidiary Haier Electronics. Following this complex transaction, Haier was left with three separate share classes: A-shares listed in Shanghai, H-shares listed in Hong Kong and D-shares listed in Frankfurt.

Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

By Richard Howe

  • Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is planning to partially spin off its financial services division, Sony Financial Group Inc. (SFGI), in what would be Japan’s first major spin‑off with a direct listing in over two decades.

  • The company will divest 80% of its stake while retaining the remaining 20%, and the spin‑off is scheduled for September 29, 2025.

  • This looks interesting to me as I see potential for indiscriminate selling. Sony Financial Service Group contributes ~13% of Company Net Income (¥1,067.4B).

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Aug 10
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Ford Motor Co, Ashimori Industry, Comcast Corp Class A, Cvs Health Corp, Etsy Inc, Medical System Network Co, QAF Ltd, Reynolds Consumer Products I, The Walt Disney Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ford’s EV Division Is Bleeding Cash—And Investors Are Cheering Anyway
  • Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140
  • Comcast Corporation: Can The Peacock Streaming Service Save The Day?
  • CVS Health: Disrupting Retail Pharmacy With Game-Changing CostVantage Pricing Model!
  • Etsy Bets Big on Depop—Hidden Gem Could Spark the Next Resale Revolution!
  • Medical System Network Co (4350 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • QAF 1H Results : As Expected : Weak Set of Results : Dividend Maintained
  • Reynolds Consumer Products: Supply Chain Optimization & Onshoring Production Can Help Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics!
  • Disney Ditches ESPN Equity To Win Big In NFL—Is Netflix Watching?
  • The Ratio of Fixed Compensation in Executive Compensation Has Gradually Declined, but Remains High

Ford’s EV Division Is Bleeding Cash—And Investors Are Cheering Anyway

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor Company’s second-quarter 2025 performance paints a picture of a company executing on its strategic ambitions while managing through significant operational headwinds.
  • The automaker posted record quarterly revenue of $50.2 billion, up from $47.8 billion a year earlier, driven by solid demand across its divisions.
  • Adjusted EBIT came in at $2.1 billion, topping Wall Street estimates of $1.9 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were 37 cents versus an expected 33 cents.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140

By Arun George

  • Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) at JPY4,140, a 43.8% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is attractive as it represents a ten-year high, implies a P/B of 1.00x and above the mid-point of the target IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • Despite the lack of irrevocables, the shareholder register facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 12 August to 24 September, with payment from 30 September.

Comcast Corporation: Can The Peacock Streaming Service Save The Day?

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings results provide a mixed yet comprehensive picture of its performance across various operational segments.
  • A few key areas of focus include broadband, theme parks, and media—all crucial components of its business strategy.
  • In the broadband sector, Comcast is adopting a competitive approach amid fierce competition from fixed wireless and fiber providers.

CVS Health: Disrupting Retail Pharmacy With Game-Changing CostVantage Pricing Model!

By Baptista Research

  • CVS Health has delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the company’s strategic positioning and diversified business model.
  • The adjusted operating income for the quarter was $3.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81.
  • The company has increased its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $6.30 to $6.40, up from the previous range of $6.00 to $6.20.

Etsy Bets Big on Depop—Hidden Gem Could Spark the Next Resale Revolution!

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy, Inc.’s recent earnings presentation provided a comprehensive overview of their second quarter 2025 financial and operational performance.
  • The results were underpinned by strategic shifts and growth initiatives that have begun to take root, though the overarching narrative was one of balanced progress amid challenging market conditions.
  • Financially, Etsy surpassed revenue expectations with consolidated revenue increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year to $673 million, despite a decline in gross merchandise sales (GMS) by 4.8% on a reported basis.

Medical System Network Co (4350 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/26 sales rose 5.7% YoY to JPY31.1bn, but net income dropped 54.1% YoY to JPY78mn.
  • Segment sales increased 6.5% YoY to JPY29.9bn, with segment profit rising 0.4% YoY to JPY1.1bn.
  • Full-year FY03/26 forecast predicts sales of JPY125.5bn and net income of JPY1.3bn, up 3.0% YoY.

QAF 1H Results : As Expected : Weak Set of Results : Dividend Maintained

By Punit Khanna

  • Revenues in constant currency was flat otherwise, it was down 1%
  • PBT was down 35% adjusted for exceptions of GB KL loss and translation loss from AU$ to S$. Maintained dividend 
  • Cost pressure was seen in Staff cost which went up in Philippines due to increased production in Philippines and implementation of minimum wage rate in Malaysia.  

Reynolds Consumer Products: Supply Chain Optimization & Onshoring Production Can Help Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics!

By Baptista Research

  • Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. reported solid second-quarter results for 2025, aligning with their expectations despite the challenging consumer and operating environment.
  • The company experienced volume growth in most of its categories, primarily driven by product innovation, such as the Hefty Fabuloso scented waste bags, Hefty ECOSAVE compostable cutlery, and Reynolds Kitchens air fryer cups.
  • These innovations have contributed to Reynolds Consumer Products capturing market share in various areas, including Hefty Waste Bags and private label food bags.

Disney Ditches ESPN Equity To Win Big In NFL—Is Netflix Watching?

By Baptista Research

  • Disney’s sports-media ambitions have accelerated dramatically this summer.
  • First, the company agreed to swap 10 percent of ESPN to the NFL in exchange for full control of NFL Network and RedZone—a deal valued between $2.5 billion and $3 billion that trims Disney’s ESPN stake from 80 percent to 72 percent while Hearst falls to 18 percent.
  • Almost simultaneously, ESPN inked a five year, $1.6 billion pact for exclusive U.S. streaming rights to WWE’s marquee events, including WrestleMania and SummerSlam, beginning in 2026.

The Ratio of Fixed Compensation in Executive Compensation Has Gradually Declined, but Remains High

By Aki Matsumoto

  • As global companies changing to increase the proportion of variable compensation from the perspective of securing human resources, the proportion of fixed compensation is gradually declining, but still high. 
  • Since only executives who receive compensation of 100 million yen or more are required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, few companies disclose the compensation of all directors individually. 
  • In addition to the inability to verify whether the remuneration paid was appropriate,　investors have doubts about the independence of the process by which the Remuneration Committee determines executive remuneration.

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Aug 09
0

Daily Brief Consumer: PointsBet Holdings , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, PG Electroplast, Toyota Motor, Bunge Ltd, Gamecard Joyco Holdings, Happinet Corp, G Tekt Corp, Morinaga & and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional
  • With Passive Funds Dominating Markets Today, Proxy Voting Tends to Be Limited to Formalities
  • PG Electroplast: KMP Selling and Lowering Guidance
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand
  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact
  • Bunge Global: Initiation Of Coverage- Soybean Operations in Brazil & Argentina Driving A Massive Margin Upside!
  • Gamecard Joyco Holdings (6249 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Happinet Corp (7552 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • G Tekt Corp (5970 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Morinaga & (2201 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • After betr Entertainment (BBT AU) bumped scrip terms for PointsBet (PBH AU), a logical course of action for Mixi  (2121 JP) was to declare its Offer unconditional. 
  • Now Mixi has bumped terms to A$1.25/share, from A$1.20/share; and declared its Offer unconditional. FIRB gave its nod on the 5th August. 
  • Mixi has 28.2% of shares out, including 1.93% in the acceptance facility. “MIXI reserves the right to increase the offer price if it acquires more than 50% of PointsBet shares“.

With Passive Funds Dominating Markets Today, Proxy Voting Tends to Be Limited to Formalities

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For asset management companies that mainly use passive funds, it is difficult to have sufficient dialogue with all portfolio companies equally in the environment where AGMs are concentrated in June.
  • As more companies focus on meeting formal voting guidelines, there is a risk that the goal of improving corporate value through management reforms will be put aside.
  • Solving individual management issues will lead to increased corporate value. However, due to physical reasons, not many companies engage in dialogue regarding individual management issues.

PG Electroplast: KMP Selling and Lowering Guidance

By Nitin Mangal

  • PG Electroplast (PGEL IN) is under limelight after the management cut its revenue guidance from 33% to 21-23%, within a single quarter.
  • The management has also flagged concerns regarding RAC demand which has affected performance.
  • Additionally, between Feb–Jun 2025, relatives of the CFO sold ~INR 376 mn worth of shares, mostly in June, shortly before the guidance cut, raising potential governance concerns.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand

By Arun George

  • Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer from 4.2% from A$1.20 to A$1.25 per share. The offer has been declared unconditional and “best and final”.
  • BETR Entertainment (BBT AU)’s offer remains 2.9% above Mixi’s revised offer, with limited options for a response. The priority is to open its offer by assuaging the Takeover Panel.
  • The shares are trading 1.2% above Mixi’s offer due to the optionality of a bump if Mixi attains a controlling stake. With little upside remaining, head for the exit.   

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact

By Nico Rosti

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.
  • Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.
  • Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.

Bunge Global: Initiation Of Coverage- Soybean Operations in Brazil & Argentina Driving A Massive Margin Upside!

By Baptista Research

  • Bunge Limited recently reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing a blend of strategic advancements and operational challenges.
  • The completion of its merger with Viterra marks a significant milestone, positioning Bunge as a premier agribusiness solutions provider.
  • This merger is expected to yield cost savings and enhance commercial opportunities, reinforcing Bunge’s expanded global footprint in food, feed, and fuel markets.

Gamecard Joyco Holdings (6249 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales decreased to JPY6.7 billion, a decline of 49.1% year-over-year.
  • Operating profit fell to JPY1.7 billion, marking a 52.6% decrease from the previous year.
  • Net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY1.2 billion, down 53.9% year-over-year.

Happinet Corp (7552 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY95.9bn (+16.5% YoY), with sales growth across all segments; gross profit was JPY11.8bn (+10.7% YoY).
  • Operating profit increased to JPY3.9bn (+20.3% YoY), driven by Toys, Videogames, and Amusement segments; SG&A expenses rose 6.5%.
  • Toys segment sales were JPY41.2bn (+8.8% YoY), supported by strong lottery product sales and hobby products.

G Tekt Corp (5970 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated revenue decreased 10.9% YoY to JPY77.3bn, with declines in all regions except Asia, due to production cuts.
  • Operating profit fell 14.8% YoY to JPY2.6bn, with OPM slipping 0.1pp YoY to 3.4%, despite effective cost control.
  • Recurring profit decreased 38.1% YoY to JPY2.6bn, and net income attributable to owners declined 38.7% YoY to JPY1.9bn.

Morinaga & (2201 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased YoY across multiple segments, with notable growth in Confectionery & Foodstuffs and Frozen Desserts in Japan.
  • Operating profit rose YoY despite rising raw material costs, driven by revenue growth and price revisions.
  • Some segments experienced revenue declines due to unfavorable weather, private-label competition, and consumer price sensitivity.

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Aug 08
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Furukawa Battery, Ci Medical, Toyota Motor, Kolon Mobility Group, The Keepers Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, KT&G Corporation, Garmin Ltd, Hyatt Hotels Corp Cl A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
  • [Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad
  • Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings
  • Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp
  • Keepers Holdings Solid Q2 2025: Multiple Catalysts Lined Up
  • With Most Companies Still Unable to Show Results, There Is No Returning to “Stakeholderism”
  • KT&G: Solid Results in 2Q 2025 + Treasury Shares Cancellation of 300 Billion Won
  • CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal
  • Garmin’s Innovation Blitz Across Fitness, Aviation, & Marine Signals Explosive Growth Ahead!
  • Hyatt’s Asset-Light Ambition Could Ignite Stock Rally After $2.6 Billion Resort Sale

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

By Travis Lundy

  • 54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
  • Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies. 
  • Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

[Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Air Water Inc (4088 JP) and Ci Medical (3540 JP) announced that the CEO and Air Water who together own 85% would be taking over the company. 
  • That’s nice. That means it’s a done deal and nobody can do anything about it. Complain all you want, it’s done. 
  • Helpfully, the Board did its job (as did Shimizu-san – he’s selling most of his stake). This is not badly-priced for an ultimately coercive deal.  

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Toyota (7203 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • Kolon Corp (002020 KS) announced that it is conducting a tender offer and delisting of Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).
  • The tender offer prices are 4,000 won per common share (20.3% higher than current price) and 5,950 won per preferred share (25.3% higher than current price) for Kolon Mobility Group.
  • The tender offer prices and stock swap ratios are especially attractive for Kolon Mobility Group shareholders.

Keepers Holdings Solid Q2 2025: Multiple Catalysts Lined Up

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)  declared strong Q2FY25 results with revenues/profits up 14%/13% YoY. Net margins declined by 20 bps YoY to 18.7% due to the discounting/fx.
  • Currently in the final stages of acquiring Booze Online Inc., the company intends to finalize the transaction by the end of Q3, contingent upon the resolution of regulatory approvals.
  • The company trades at 9.7x FY25e, net cash, and an ROCE exceeding 20%. Supported by multiple growth levers, this presents an attractive opportunity within the Philippine domestic consumer discretionary sector.

With Most Companies Still Unable to Show Results, There Is No Returning to “Stakeholderism”

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most companies have only made superficial improvements to meet numerical targets, and have not attempted to improve capital profitability or stock price valuation through improvements in board practices.
  • Very few companies proceed with uncodified practices based on company policy. Conversely, these companies demonstrate a willingness to change from their previous management style.
  • Previously, the idea of “treating shareholders equally with all other stakeholders” was widespread among many companies. As a result of “Stakeholderism,” capital profitability and stock price valuations have continued slow.

KT&G: Solid Results in 2Q 2025 + Treasury Shares Cancellation of 300 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • KT&G reported solid results in 2Q 2025. It had sales of 1.5 trillion won (up 8.7% YoY) and operating profit of 349.9 billion won (up 8.7% YoY).
  • KT&G plans to repurchase and cancel 300 billion won worth of treasury stock starting 8 August.
  • KT&G continues to have attractive valuation multiples. It is currently trading at P/E of 12.3x, P/B of 1.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 9.4x.

CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Ci Medical (3540 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Air Water Inc (4088 JP) at JPY1,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation will pass. 

Garmin’s Innovation Blitz Across Fitness, Aviation, & Marine Signals Explosive Growth Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • Garmin Limited reported a remarkable second quarter for 2025, showcasing a 20% increase in consolidated revenue to over $1.8 billion, a figure that sets a new quarterly record for the company.
  • Each of the company’s business segments—fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM—posted double-digit growth, contributing to a robust overall financial performance.
  • Operating income surged to $472 million, marking a 38% year-overyear increase, as operating margins rose to 26%.

Hyatt’s Asset-Light Ambition Could Ignite Stock Rally After $2.6 Billion Resort Sale

By Baptista Research

  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation has accelerated its pivot toward an asset-light model with a landmark $2.6 billion sale of its Playa Hotels & Resorts all-inclusive portfolio, marking its most significant divestiture yet.
  • This transaction shifts 15 resorts across Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica from owned real estate to pure management and franchise agreements, unlocking immediate liquidity and reducing capital intensity.
  • Coupled with Hyatt’s recent launch of multiple new brands—Hyatt Studios, Hyatt Select, and Unscripted by Hyatt—in the upscale and upper-midscale segments, the company is realigning its growth engine toward higher-margin fee revenue.

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Aug 07
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Soft99 Corp, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Cosmax Inc, Eternal, Lenskart Solutions, JD.com , Altria Group, Guming Holdings, Nhk Spring and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
  • Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
  • Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea
  • Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang
  • Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done
  • JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal
  • Altria Group: A Tale Of Growing Oral Tobacco Profits—Is on! the Secret Weapon for Future Growth?- Major Drivers
  • Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money
  • Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas

  • The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
  • Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
  • The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.
  • The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.
  • We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.

Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang

By Akshat Shah

  • Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. is looking to raise up to US$612m via a cleanup of its remaining ~2% stake in Eternal (ETERNAL IN) .
  • Antfin has been selling off parts of its ~14% stake in the firm since the IPO. The company last sold a 2% stake to raise upto US$400m in Aug 2024.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Avendus, Axis, Citi, Kotak, MS and Intensive Fiscal Services.
  • Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
  • LSL’s largest market is India, and it was the largest seller of prescription eyeglasses in terms of volumes sold in India in FY25, according to the Redseer Report.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done

By Arun George

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal

By Caixin Global

  • JD.com is making its boldest push yet into the European market. On Thursday, the Chinese e commerce giant announced plans to acquire all outstanding shares in Germany’s CeconomyAG, the parent company of electronics retailers MediaMarkt and Saturn, in a cash offer valuing the deal at about 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion).
  • Through its wholly owned subsidiary Jingdong Holding Germany GmbH, JD.com is offering 4.60 euros per share, a 43% premium to Ceconomy’s three month volume weighted average price and 23% above its July 23 close, before news of the potential takeover emerged.
  • Shares rose to 4.41 euros Thursday, up 1.26%. Upon completion, Ceconomy would be privatized and delisted.

Altria Group: A Tale Of Growing Oral Tobacco Profits—Is on! the Secret Weapon for Future Growth?- Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Altria Group’s recent earnings reveals a mixed set of results that convey both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • In the second quarter of 2025, Altria continued to benefit from its strong core businesses, particularly within the oral tobacco product segment.
  • On! nicotine pouches were a significant driver of this segment’s growth, reporting a 26.5% increase in volume and a retail share rise to 8.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point gain year-over-year.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
  • After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 3.2% YoY, while operating profit and recurring profit declined by 9.2% and 37.4% YoY, respectively.
  • Automotive Seating and Automotive Suspension Spring segments posted lower revenue, while DDS and Precision Springs & Components segments recorded growth.
  • Global HDD production declined YoY, but demand for high-capacity HDDs for data centers increased, boosting HDD suspensions.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Genting Bhd, Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk PT, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee, Beijing Roborock Technology , Smithfield Foods, Herbalife Ltd, Decollte Holdings, Beenos Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
  • Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
  • Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
  • Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
  • Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
  • Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0
  • Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
  • The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

  • Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
  • Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
  • Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
  • Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
  • In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns. 
  • As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
  • Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

  • Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
  • It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
  • Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
  • A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.

Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0

By Water Tower Research

  • We attended the Herbalife North America Extravaganza held in late July in Arlington, Texas, which is a large, in-person annual distributor event.
  • The highlight of the event was the reveal of the beta version of company’s new Pro2col™ health and wellness digital platform, providing greater insight into HLF’s next evolution into its vision of becoming the world’s premier health and wellness company, community, and platform.
  • The launch of Pro2col should be as impactful to Herbalife 3.0 as the launch of the Formula 1 Healthy Meal product line under the weight management category was to Herbalife 1.0 and the expansion into the adjacent active and lifestyle nutrition categories, particularly sports nutrition with the Herbalife24® product line, was to Herbalife 2.0.

Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
  • Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
  • The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
  • In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
  • BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Thai Union Group, Great Wall Motor, Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P, Ferrari N.V., Laopu Gold, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Starbucks Corp, Lithia Motors Inc Cl A, Asbury Automotive and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025):  HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
  • Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
  • StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)
  • Ferrari (RACE US): Deceleration in Q2 FY25, But Confident On Future Growth
  • Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Starbucks Turnaround Is ‘Ahead of Schedule’—But at What Cost?
  • Lithia Motors Is Targeting $2-$4 billion In Annual Acquired Revenues But Can It Execute?
  • Asbury Automotive Group: Technological Advancements with Tekion to Further Solidify Its Market Competitiveness!

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025):  HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance. 
  • Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer. 
  • Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If <13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
  • Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
  • FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. 
  • Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

By David Blennerhassett

Ferrari (RACE US): Deceleration in Q2 FY25, But Confident On Future Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) reported Q2 FY25 revenue and earnings growth of 4.4% and 3% (a slight miss on analysts’ estimates) due to increased tax rates and slower growth.
  • Management is confident of meeting its conservative guidance for FY25, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 5% and 2% YoY.
  • The stock trades at 41.6x FY25 PE and 24x EV-EBITDA. Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)  continues to maintain its unique pricing power position due to its loyal customer base.

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The value of Laopu lies in its innovation in business model,successfully breaking away from the low-profit attribute of the industry by following the pricing and operation methods of luxury goods.
  • However, Laopu cannot enjoy the valuation system of luxury brands because it cannot “escape” gold price cycle.So, when valuation of Laopu approaches that of luxury brands, it has overvaluation risks.
  • Current valuation has priced in overseas expansion, which however isn’t a done deal.During upward cycle of gold prices,it’s easy to optimistically linearly extrapolate Laopu’s growth potential.Valuation faces downward revision risk  

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited, Nissan Motor
  • UST yields plunged on Friday, led by the front end, as the market repriced expectations for Fed easing following a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report. As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 61 bps of rate cuts over the next three meetings in 2025 (vs. 33 bps as of Thursday). The UST curve bull steepened aggressively, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 28 bps to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 16 bps to 4.22%.
  • Equities retreated owing to the weak jobs numbers, continued tariff concerns, as well as after US President Donald Trump said the US was moving two nuclear submarines in response to “provocative” statements by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 6,238, while the Nasdaq was down 2.2% at 20,650.

Starbucks Turnaround Is ‘Ahead of Schedule’—But at What Cost?

By Baptista Research

  • Starbucks Corporation’s latest quarterly results underscored both the urgency of its transformation efforts and the early signs of progress in key areas.
  • For the fiscal third quarter, the company reported net revenue of $9.5 billion, yet same-store sales fell 2 percent globally—worse than the 1.5 percent decline analysts had anticipated—and earnings per share of $0.50 trailed the $0.65 consensus.
  • In the United States, comparable sales also dipped 2 percent, reflecting the continued impact of a year-and-a-half streak of domestic store declines.

Lithia Motors Is Targeting $2-$4 billion In Annual Acquired Revenues But Can It Execute?

By Baptista Research

  • Lithia & Driveway recently reported its second-quarter results for 2025, showcasing substantial growth and strategic moves impacting both their operational and financial trajectories.
  • The company achieved a record revenue of $9.6 billion, reflecting a 4% increase in same-store sales compared to the previous year.
  • This revenue growth, combined with operational enhancements, resulted in a 29% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS).

Asbury Automotive Group: Technological Advancements with Tekion to Further Solidify Its Market Competitiveness!

By Baptista Research

  • Asbury Automotive Group’s second quarter 2025 earnings report reveals a complex mix of positive performances and ongoing challenges.
  • The company’s revenue reached $4.4 billion with a gross profit of $752 million, achieving a gross profit margin of 17.2%.
  • A key highlight from the quarter was the successful acquisition of Herb Chambers Automotive Group, valued at approximately $1.45 billion, which expanded Asbury’s presence in the stable New England market.

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Aug 04
0

Daily Brief Consumer: KT&G Corporation, Laopu Gold, Dentsu Inc, Smart Share Global, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Meituan, TVS Motor , Mondelez International, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
  • Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
  • Royal Caribbean Group: Optimization of Loyalty Programs to Build Stronger Relationships With Guests!
  • ECM Weekly (4 August 2025)-Meituan, LG CNS, Wuxi AppTec, SICC, NSDL, Aditya Info, GigaDevice, WeWork
  • TVS Motor (TVSL) – The Juggernaut; Solid Outlook
  • Mondelez International: Emerging Market Contributions As A Critical Growth Engine!
  • Will the Incorporation of TSR into the Remuneration System Affect Cash Allocation?

60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
  • Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
  • This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
  • The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
  • The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

By Brian Freitas

  • The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
  • Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
  • There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.

Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed

By David Blennerhassett

  • Nearly seven months after Smart Share (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal, a firm Offer has been entered into.
  • Terms remains the same as the indicative NBIO: US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. The Offeror comprises a consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO.
  • Timing from here? Perhaps three to four months, or late November completion by my estimate. 

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Smart Share Global (EM US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement for a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS. 
  • The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk), shareholder approval (effectively done) and a maximum dissenting condition (likely to be waived).
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for the end of December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.8%/20.1% (3.5%/8.7% including an ADS cancellation fee).  

Royal Caribbean Group: Optimization of Loyalty Programs to Build Stronger Relationships With Guests!

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Caribbean Group delivered a strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant improvements in key financial metrics largely driven by strong consumer demand and strategic operational enhancements.
  • The company exceeded expectations with adjusted earnings per share reaching $4.38, which is a 36% increase compared to last year, surpassing guidance by $0.33.
  • A key contributor was a robust 5.2% growth in net yields, driven by strong close-in bookings and a split between new and existing fleet contributions.

ECM Weekly (4 August 2025)-Meituan, LG CNS, Wuxi AppTec, SICC, NSDL, Aditya Info, GigaDevice, WeWork

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, India deal flow remains strong, with HK A/H listing starting to flow in again.
  • On the placements front, WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) undertook a mega raising, while Prosus NV (PRX NA) has begun to pare its stake in Meituan (3690 HK). 

TVS Motor (TVSL) – The Juggernaut; Solid Outlook

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • TVS Motor (TVSL IN) posted its highest-ever revenue and EBITDA in Q1FY26, with 20% topline growth. Strong export recovery (+39%) and robust EV sales (+35%) helped offset modest domestic growth.
  • Strong Festive Outlook: Management expects festive demand, rural recovery, and new launches—including EVs and Norton bikes—to drive strong H2 FY26 performance.
  • But the Valuation At 57x P/E TTM EPS, TVS commands a steep premium over peers.Despite the sustained outperformance in EV adoption,export monetization, and upcoming premium product launches, we retain HOLD.

Mondelez International: Emerging Market Contributions As A Critical Growth Engine!

By Baptista Research

  • Mondelez International’s latest financial results present a mixed picture with both strengths and challenges for potential investors to consider.
  • During the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved promising outcomes overall, but encountered significant regional disparities.
  • On the positive side, Mondelez reported strong global balance, driven by impressive performance outside North America.

Will the Incorporation of TSR into the Remuneration System Affect Cash Allocation?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With nearly half of companies listed on TSE having a P/B ratio of less than 1, many investors are likely to question the appropriateness of executives receiving fixed remuneration.
  • Incorporating TSR into the compensation system will likely motivate companies to increase shareholder returns, which is a good thing if it leads to the return of unused cash to shareholders.
  • As long as fixed compensation remains high, there won’t be much incentive to put a lot of cash into growth investments that boost corporate value.

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