Consumer

• China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
• Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao. 

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
• In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

• A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
• Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.
• We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities are aligned with this view, this is a global market pullback, probably about to end.

• On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
• BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
• Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 

• PDD’s total revenue increased by 9% YoY in 3Q25 higher than 7% YoY in 2Q25.
• In 3Q25, operating cash flows stopped decreasing after a year and grew by 66% YoY.
• We believe PDD’s stock price can be double for the next twelve month according to other e-commerce companies’ EV/EBITDA.

• We compile our selection of small- and mid-cap names with the desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and a margin of safety.
• We compile updates on Oriental Watch (398 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), and others into the results.
• Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).

• Lovesac is a niche, direct-to-consumer furniture company with a strong brand identity centered on its patented, modular “Sactionals”and premium “Sacs.”
• The company’s growth is driven by its unique “Designed for Life”philosophy, emphasizing sustainable, adaptable products that foster a loyal, repeat customer base, with approximately 47% of transactions from existing customers.
• While exhibiting strong long-term revenue growth, the company faces significant near-term headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, increased competition, and margin pressure from promotional activity.

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• As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
• Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (21 November to 5 December 2025).
• Our top 10 picks in the past two weeks (7 to 21 November) were up on average 1.4% this period, outperforming KOSPI which was down 2.5% in the same period.
• Our top 10 picks in the next two weeks include LG CNS, Hana Financial, Orion Corp, KT&G, Naver, KEPCO E&C, Hanmi Pharm, Amorepacific Corp, LG Chem (Pref), and SK Inc. 

• I tally 34 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
• One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK). Technically, the Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is new.
• Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal (RUL AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Webjet (WJL AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). 

• During fiscal year 2024, which spans March 2024 to March 2025, the policy-held shares are estimated to have been reduced by approximately 20%.
• Financial institutions are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets, and as profits from Japanese operations stagnate, the rationale for maintaining cross-shareholdings with Japanese companies is diminishing.
• Some companies focused on the domestic market wish to continue holding cross-shareholdings due to business relationships. The gap between these companies and those expanding globally is expected to widen further.

• Live Nation Entertainment recently discussed its performance and strategy during its investor meeting, highlighting both opportunities and challenges facing the company.
• Live Nation, a dominant player in the live entertainment industry, has projected continuous growth in its key markets, leveraging global expansion and consumer trends.
• One of the significant highlights is the company’s outlook on the industry.

• We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.
• H&H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.
• The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.

• Right On Co. Ltd. is a jeans and casual wear retailer facing a prolonged period of declining revenues and significant financial losses, driven by intense competition and shifting consumer preferences in the Japanese apparel market.
• Despite a challenging top-line trend, the company has shown some recent, albeit inconsistent, improvement in net income, suggesting that cost control measures may be taking effect. However, operating and free cash flows remain deeply negative, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
• The company’s strategy is centered on its core competency in denim, leveraging both national and private brands, and optimizing its nationwide network of stores, which are primarily located in shopping centers. A pivot towards enhancing e-commerce and adapting product assortments to local tastes is critical for a potential turnaround.

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• Yum!
• Brands, Inc. delivered a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025, accentuated by strong system sales and core operating profit growth.
• The company’s comprehensive strategy focused on leveraging its scale and brand strengths, primarily through its key brands, KFC and Taco Bell, which collectively account for a significant portion of its operating profit.

• Kontoor Brands has demonstrated a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, highlighted by growth in its core brands and a strategic expansion in its portfolio.
• The quarter’s results reflect successful integration and growth initiatives that offer both immediate benefits and promising long-term prospects.
• Helly Hansen, a recent acquisition by Kontoor Brands, showed significant growth, with revenues increasing by 11%.

• Green Cross Health is a leading integrated primary healthcare provider in New Zealand, operating a large network of pharmacies under the Unichem and Life Pharmacy brands, and medical centers primarily under ‘The Doctors’ brand.
• The company faces a challenging operating environment characterized by insufficient government funding, inflationary pressures, and constrained consumer spending, which has impacted profitability despite revenue growth.
• Future strategy is centered on organic growth through the expansion of pharmacy services, strengthening its retail beauty and wellness offerings, investing in technology, and advocating for regulatory changes to broaden the scope of pharmacist services and simplify medical center funding.

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Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H126 trading update shows a strong performance by the core business with an accompanying improvement in operating margin. This is impressive given the comparatives from the two prior years when the most recent editions of its major intellectual properties were released. This also suggests good ongoing sales of new products from each of these properties, as well as other new products this year. We increase our FY26e profit by c 12% and raise our forecast dividend to £5.20 per share to be consistent with FY25 levels, despite our lower forecast profit.

• Rivian Automotive’s third-quarter 2025 financial results reflect mixed performance and strategic advancements, which provide multiple dimensions for assessment for potential investors.
• The U.S.-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer continues to focus on expanding its product offerings, enhancing its technological capabilities, and scaling its manufacturing capacity.
• While there are positives in Rivian’s broader strategy, the financial results reveal challenges that the company faces in terms of profitability and cost management.

• UST yields fell meaningfully yesterday, with the curve bull steepening as market expectations for Fed rate cuts climbed.
• This followed an uptick in the September unemployment rate, despite payrolls data coming in above estimates.
• The yield on the 2Y UST decreased 6 bps to 3.53%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.09%. 

Key points (machine generated)

• Toyoko has recently been listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth, focusing on its CoolLaser business.
• The company’s Medium-Term Management Plan anticipates selling 120 units with a CAGR of over 50% in operating profit.
• The report highlights strong demand for CoolLaser products and record profit expectations for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

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• Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
• Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
• The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
• The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• After seven months had elapsed since receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer (an MBO) had been entered into.
• The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, is offering US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
• Hillhouse upped the ante with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. The share price hasn’t closed below US$1.25/share since; but the reason may not just hinge on Hillhouse firming its Offer.

• Oriental Watch (398 HK) maintained its dividend yield of ~12% (annualized), declaring 20.8 HKD cents of dividend for H1FY26. Cash and Investments were ~ HKD1 billion (60% of market cap).
• The company highlighted that the environment is challenging, given trade wars and tempered HK/Chinese demand. On our conservative numbers, the stock trades at 8.6x FY26PE. 
• Oriental Watch (398 HK)  will maintain its high dividend payout ratio of ~100%. Over the past 8 years, the company paid dividends of 3.8 HKD/share (> the current share price).

• In this insight, we discuss how Olive Young is likely to be a serious long-term threat to Ulta Beauty (ULTA US) (market cap of US$22.3 billion) in the United States. 
• CJ Corp is the largest shareholder of CJ Olive Young. On 19 November, CJ Olive Young announced that it plans to open its first store in California in May 2026.
• There is a growing probability that CJ Olive Young could successfully grow its business in the US, especially due to the continued strong demand for Korean cosmetics.

• Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
• Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.
• Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

• Asian Paints achieved a 7-quarter high in Q2FY26 with 10.9% domestic volume growth, driven by easing raw material costs and strategic integration, leading to a 2% margin expansion.
• Despite heavy monsoons, strong execution drove a double-digit volume rebound, signaling stabilized consumer demand. This coupled with a key competitor’s executive loss, validates the firm’s defensive market position.
• Asian Paints’ strong performance deserves a premium valuation but justifying it hinges on the perfect execution of its backward integration project and defending its competitive position.

• All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
• The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
• The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).

• Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1H FY25/26 profit came in at the top-end of the guidance. Its 3Q sales growth has so far increased 11.3%, a further acceleration.
• Hong Kong and Macau should capture some of the diverted traffic as Sino-Japanese relations soured, while a weaker USD, as rates are cut, should make shopping cheaper.
• With its ROE reaching 10-13% in FY26-28F (the best ones since FY21), its 5-year-low P/B multiple makes the stock a bargain.

• Formosa Prosonic announced an 80-cent Special Dividend as the management decided to return excess cash
• 3rd quarter results showed EPS of 7.92 cents, though there is a gain on the sale of PPE of 35% of profits
• Management but given the stock trading below cash we remain positive on the stock

• Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding scheme offer from Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) at A$0.90 per share, a 12.5% premium to the rejected BGH/Weiss offer of A$0.80.
• The Board has granted due diligence. The offer is unattractive compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges.    
• The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids from BGH/Weiss and Helloworld.

• Samyang Foods is pursuing a block deal sale of 103 billion won of its treasury shares to secure additional funds for facility investment and improve its financial structure.
• Samyang Foods plans to sell 74,887 common shares (0.99% of issued shares) at 1,372,000 won per share.  The expected block deal price is 1% lower than the current price.
• The counterparties of this block deal sale have already been announced which include Viridian Asset Management, Jump Trading, and Weiss Asset Management.

• Unilever is set to complete the spin-off of its ice cream business by December 6, 2025. The new company will start trading from December 8, 2025.
• The Magnum Ice Cream Company lists with ~€8 billion in revenue and improving margins, though elevated leverage post-spin is a concern.
• Unilever’s ice cream spin-off streamlines its portfolio, but valuation uplift appears limited.

• CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 4QFY09/2025 results last week. Full-year and 4QFY09/2025 revenue and OP beat consensus as well as guidance by a huge margin.
• Despite reporting a set of strong results, CA’s share price has been down 15% which we think was driven by the company’s cautious guidance for FY09/2026.
• With a strong pipeline of gaming titles coupled with global expansion of English versions of newly released titles, we think CA’s FY09/2026 guidance is overly conservative.

• Japan–China relations have sharply deteriorated after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, triggering diplomatic retaliation, security tensions, and the worst bilateral rift since 1972.
• Asics’ ¥90bn market-cap drop reflects concerns over its heavy reliance on Chinese consumers, both domestically and through inbound tourism, which drive roughly a quarter of profits.
• Markets may be underestimating the risk of prolonged geopolitical strain, threatening Asics’ 2026 outlook despite record current performance and secure near-term guidance.

• Yaoko is now called Blue Zone Holdings, and is shaking up Japan’s supermarket landscape by acquiring two well-matched regional chains just weeks after its launch. 
• The company plans to accelerate plans to acquire other smaller supermarket chains to build out into a national chain.
• The plan also signals a new wave of M&A in the sector as barriers to supermarket consolidation finally start to fall.

• Dominant player in China’s children’s wear market through its highly successful ‘Balabala’ brand, which holds the leading market share.
• The children’s wear segment serves as the primary growth engine, consistently contributing a larger share of revenue and offsetting the slower growth in the more mature adult casual wear segment.
• Financial performance shows a recovery trajectory with revenue and net income growth in recent years, supported by improving margins and a strong dividend yield.

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• CHJ’s business model integrates franchise stores and self-operated stores. Franchising as the main approach is beneficial for achieving rapid expansion, while self-operation as a supplement helps to enhance brand image.
• Due to increasing competition, future growth of CHJ may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but may be under pressure due to rising raw material costs/reduced customer demand.
• We think valuation of CHJ should be lower than Laopu, but could be higher than Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) due to CHJ’s higher performance growth in the short term.  

• OGO delivered Q3 revenue of $15.1M (+189% YoY), above our $13.5M estimate, marking the Company’s fourth consecutive quarter with >100% YoY revenue growth.
• Gross margin was 8.2% and EBITDA was ($0.7M), lower than our estimates, although operating costs continued to scale efficiently.
• We recently re-initiated coverage on OGO and conducted an interview with CEO Steve Bromley; see the full report here and interview here.

• This insight details about Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) ‘s 1H performance and outlook for 2H
• We detail why 2H outlook is fluid and similar to “a cat on the wall” situation. Reasons mentioned in this insight.
• While company’s valuation is not cheap compared to peers but there is a possibility to perform better than estimates in 2H FY2025

• Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape. 
• Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
• That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.

• The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
• There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
• Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

• Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) increased its Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) tender offer price by 2.3% to JPY2,015, 7.1% below the last close and 15.3% below SilverCape’s JPY2,380 offer.
• The lower limit has been reduced to a 24.67% ownership ratio. Hakuhodo’s confidence in passing the EGM share consolidation vote relies on AGM voting trends and passive votes.
• Hakuhodo’s acceptances as of 28 October exceed the lower limit. The revised Hakudodo offer will severely dent the chances of SilverCape’s offer.

• Physicswallah raised around US$430m in its India IPO, despite having a decent anchor book.
• Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
• We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• In Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying,  rumours surfaced earlier this year of an undisclosed buyer with ~5%. On the 12th May, Helloworld (HLO AU) emerged with a 5.015% stake.
• On the same day, Gary Weiss/BGH, collectively holding 10.76%, launched a A$0.80/share NBIO, which was subsequently rejected. Undeterred, Weiss/BGH has called for an EGM (21st November) to spill the board.
• Helloworld has now tabled a A$0.90/share non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme. The 1H26 dividend of A$0.002/share will be added. Helloworld currently holds 17.27%. Weiss/BGH hold 17.75%.

• The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan’s largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.
• A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity’s market leadership.
• These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.

• In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation commission up by 12% YoY.
• Overseas travel continued to recover and consumption shrink does not impact TCOM much.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 29% for the next twelve months.

• Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
• But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
• We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive

• In December 2025, Unilever (UL) will spin-off the Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC).

• Regular way trading is expected to begin on December 8, 2025. Shareholders and ADS holders will receive one Magnum Share for every five Unilever Shares or Unilever ADSs.

• The spin-off was announced in March 2024 as a way for Unilever to separate its lower margin, higher capital intensity business, leaving behind a higher quality business.

• Bright Horizons Family Solutions recently reported its third-quarter financial results, delivering strong performance with notable growth across its key service segments.
• Revenue increased by 12% to $803 million, driven by significant demand for its education and care benefits.
• Adjusted earnings per share rose by 41% to $1.57, exceeding the company’s expectations.

• A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.  
• At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
• The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

• Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
• Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders’ expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
• Get ready for Alibaba‘s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.

• Takeover speculation re-ignites WPP plc, with interest reportedly from Havas, Apollo, and KKR. Depressed valuation, strategic review, and FTSE ejection risk position WPP as a live event-driven opportunity.
• Valuation disconnect significant: FY2024 EV/EBITDA only 3.8× versus peers 8–10× (5.4x NTM consensus, vs. peers NTM averaging ~6.7x). Base-case bid 430–550 p implies 50–80 % upside, assuming £7.5–9.5 billion EV.
• Arbitrage setup compelling: Expected 6-month return ≈ 34 % (IRR 45 %), asymmetric 3:1 reward-to-risk profile. Key catalysts – formal bid indication, Havas/Vivendi stake-building, or private-equity consortium approach.

• Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.
• Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.
• Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.

• Geely’s total revenue continued to grow rapidly by 26% YoY in 3Q25.
• Geely’s deliveries reached 90% of BYD’s in October of 2025.
• We conclude a price target of HK$18.50 for next 12 months, which suggests an upside of 19%.

• Izumi is joining the race to buy up more of Japan’s food and FMCG retail share. 
• Currently one of the dominant players in Kyushu, Izumi says it will use M&A to increase store numbers over the next decade.
• This will also mean pivoting more towards food rather than its traditional GMS format just like its competitors.

• We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies
• We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile
• Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks

• Nippon Seiki is a global leader in the automotive instrument cluster and Head-Up Display (HUD) market, holding the top global market share for HUDs at approximately 30%. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the automotive industry’s shift towards digitalization and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
• Financially, the company has demonstrated robust growth in recent years, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 12.26% and a net income CAGR of 47.08%. This performance is supported by strong demand in North America and ASEAN, and the easing of semiconductor shortages.
• Despite strong growth, the company faces risks associated with the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, high dependency on a few major OEM customers, and volatility in cash flow. The long-term market cap performance has been weak, suggesting historical investor concerns.

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• Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO) is a ~$2B market cap, for-profit education company that has seen unprecedented enrollment and retention growth across its online academic institutions, which has driven its stock price up ~200% over the last two years. 
• In Q1 24, the pace of enrollments suddenly began to accelerate, with enrollment growth at Colorado Technical University (CTU), PRDO’s largest school, peaking at 28% year-over-year.
• This growth far surpassed the normalized levels management were forecasting just one quarter prior, and well outstripped the ~3% average pre-COVID enrollment growth at CTU.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) prices at the low end of the range, Klook (KLK US) seeks to raise US$400 million.
• Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP). 

• The vote on Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)’s privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend) is on 8 December. 
• While the OCB sale completion (a scheme condition) carries timing risk, the Board continues to expect to complete the OCB sale by 31 December.
• The offer is conceivably light as Jardine’s dividends from the OCB sale comfortably cover the scheme cost. However, the offer remains reasonable on several fronts, and the vote is low-risk.  

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
• The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
• The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)‘s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, all markets were in full throttle mode going into the year end.
• On the placements front, there were a number of deals across the region.

• Leading Market Position in a Resilient Sector: Toho is a dominant player in Japan’s food service distribution industry, a sector characterized by stable, albeit low-margin, demand. Its comprehensive business model, encompassing distribution, cash & carry, and food solutions, provides a significant competitive advantage.
• Strategic Growth Initiatives Driving Profitability: The company’s mid-term management plan, ‘SHIFT-UP 2027,’ focuses on key growth areas including expansion in the Greater Tokyo Area, increasing the share of higher-margin private brand (PB) products, and pursuing strategic M&A, which are expected to enhance profitability.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns and Valuation: Toho demonstrates a strong commitment to shareholder returns, targeting a 40% dividend payout ratio. The stock trades at a compelling valuation relative to its peers, supported by robust growth in earnings and dividends over the past three years.

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• Dominant integrated entertainment enterprise in Japan, underpinned by a powerful intellectual property (IP) portfolio, most notably the globally recognized ‘Godzilla’ franchise.
• Clearly defined growth strategy, “TOHO VISION 2032,”focuses on strengthening its four core pillars (Film, Theatre, Real Estate, and Anime), with a significant emphasis on international expansion and digital innovation.
• Stable financial performance is augmented by the lucrative and less volatile Real Estate division, providing a solid foundation for investments in the inherently cyclical content creation business.

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• Since TSE’s request, many companies have introduced share buybacks as a measure, and as a result of investors demanding accountability for how these shares are used, share cancellations have increased.
• Companies that frequently cancel treasury stock demonstrate superior capital profitability. Companies with high capital profitability also exhibit strong scores in growth strategy, cash holdings, dividend policy, and treasury stock cancellation.
• More companies are expected to consider cash allocation within overall goal of enhancing corporate value, encompassing growth strategy, cash holding policy, and dividend policy, in order to improve capital profitability.

• The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) delivered a softer 3QFY25, with volume growth decelerating to 4% from ~22% in 1HFY25. Demand was impacted by calamities (earthquakes, typhoons) affecting on-premise consumption. 
• Q4 began with a strong October rebound, as Halloween nearly doubled sales. While it’s early in the quarter, management remains bullish about the demand trajectory for the upcoming celebratory season.
• The recent graft scandal investigations and weak demand-related pullback have brought the stock to an attractive 8.7x PE for FY25e, with ROCEs >20%, a div yield >5% and net cash.

• On 14 November, media outlets reported that Sapphireterra has sent a letter to the Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) Board suggesting two strategic alternatives to improve shareholder returns. 
• Sapphireterra has suggested that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) privatise Itochu-Shokuhin at JPY14,000, a 50.5% takeover premium. Due to the shareholder structure, Itochu does not need to be this generous.
• Sapphireterra has also alternatively suggested JPY7,000 special dividend. The strong YTD share performance suggests no pressing need for the Board to act on this proposal. 

• Elliott ups its stake in Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and considers the proposed Offer to be significantly undervalues the company. 
• No matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)is trading rich. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is trading even richer. 
• Is Genting  (GENT MK)‘s low-balled Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) all about securing statutory control; or is there scope for a bump now that the transaction has turned unconditional? 

• The Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) “MBO” was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.
• The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.
• Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They’re not playing.

• Olectra Greentech is a leading manufacturer of electric buses in India, strategically positioned to capitalize on the country’s significant push towards electric mobility in public transportation.
• The company’s growth is underpinned by a strong order book from State Transport Undertakings (STUs), a technological partnership with global EV giant BYD, and robust support from government initiatives like the FAME II scheme and the National Electric Bus Program.
• Key risks include high dependence on government contracts, intensifying competition from established automotive players, and a premium valuation that demands flawless execution on its large order book.

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• LKQ Corporation has once again found itself in the activist crosshairs.
• According to reports, hedge fund Ananym Capital has been engaging with the company for several months, urging management to sell or spin off its struggling European business to refocus on its more profitable North American operations.
• The push comes amid ongoing operational challenges across LKQ’s European footprint—where macroeconomic weakness, price competition, and legacy inefficiencies have hampered growth—and after CEO Justin Jude’s recent comments about a potential portfolio simplification process.

• BorgWarner’s third-quarter results for 2025 reveal a mixed performance, characterized by both encouraging indicators and some ongoing challenges.
• The company’s organic sales growth of just over 2% indicates resilience despite external pressures, including downtime at a major European customer due to a cyber-related issue, which slightly dampened performance.
• Excluding declines in the Commercial Vehicle (CV) battery and Charging Systems segment, organic sales grew approximately 4% year-over-year.

• Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a performance in the third quarter of 2025 that showcased both strategic successes and challenges.
• The company’s contract sales rose impressively by 17% to $907 million, setting a record on a pro forma basis.
• This growth underpinned a noticeable improvement in both real estate profitability and adjusted EBITDA, which reached $302 million, marking near double-digit growth.

• PriceSmart, Inc.’s latest earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 painted a complex picture of the company’s financial health and strategic initiatives.
• On the positive side, the company reported solid growth in both net merchandise sales and revenue, with total net merchandise sales reaching nearly $5.2 billion for the fiscal year, marking a 7.7% year-over-year increase.
• Notably, this growth was largely driven by the successful expansion of their club network and enhanced digital sales channels.

• Shake Shack’s third quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant growth and operational improvements despite facing macroeconomic challenges.
• The company’s revenue grew by approximately 16% year-over-year, driven by both strong new Shack openings and the performance of its existing comp Shack base.
• The licensing segment also showed robust performance, with revenue increasing by 21.1% year-over-year.

• Cavco Industries, Inc. recently reported their second quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
• Positive aspects included a 9.7% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by a 5.4% increase in homes sold and a 4.4% increase in average revenue per home sold.
• Operating profit spiked by 27% compared to the previous year, indicative of robust operational performance and cost management efficiency.

• Back on the 13th October 2025, Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting,  announced a conditional Offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
• GENT offered RM2.35/share, a 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer had a 50% acceptance threshold. The Offer is now unconditional.
• The Independent Advice Circular is now out. The IFA says NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. And to reject the Offer. The revised closing date is the 1st December. 

• Golden Entertainment’s sale-leaseback with VICI involves 7 casinos, distributing 24.3m VICI shares to shareholders at 0.902/share.
• Chairman Blake Sartini’s privatization offer values RemainCo at $2.75/share, approximately 1x EBITDA, sparking activist opposition.
• Activists demand separate votes for transactions, citing inadequate RemainCo valuation and potential 33% upside to $39.5/share.

• Chinese purchases of US agricultural products are expected to increase gradually but may take time due to seasonality and price competitiveness
• US farmers may see more optimism in the 2026-2027 season as trade discussions with China improve and market participation increases
• The complex nature of US-China trade relations and the continued volatility in the agricultural markets make for a clouded outlook, but there is potential for growth and market shifts in the near future.

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• Shadowfax Technologies (1310315D IN) is looking to raise about US$225m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley, ICICI and JM Financial.
• Shadowfax Technologies is a new-age, technology-led third-party logistics (3PL) company that leverages a unified platform to facilitate digital commerce across India.
• The company provides a comprehensive suite of logistics services organised across express, hyperlocal, and other logistics segments.

• Coupang faces a fast-emerging risk: a potential ban on early dawn deliveries (midnight–5 AM), driven by the powerful 1.1 million-member Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU). 
• The Coupang Union and most drivers strongly oppose the ban, warning of layoffs and slower deliveries. Consumers also prefer the current system. 
• If enacted, the ban could severely hurt Coupang and Korea’s economy. Probability of passage has risen sharply. I would be cautious on Coupang until this risk factor is fully resolved. 

• Crocs, Inc.’s third quarter of 2025 revealed a complex performance landscape driven by strategic decisions and market conditions.
• The company, known for both the Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, demonstrated efforts to realign its operations toward long-term growth despite short-term challenges.
• On the positive side, Crocs, Inc. showcased strong profitability and cash flow in the quarter, which facilitated share repurchases and debt reduction.

• In cumulative Q3 FY12/25, revenue was JPY92.6bn, with an operating loss of JPY280mn and a recurring loss of JPY17.1bn.
• Amusement Equipment business revenue was JPY41.4bn, with a 29.6% YoY increase in units sold to 83,877 units.
• Integrated Resort business revenue was JPY50.6bn, with an operating loss of JPY3.0bn and adjusted EBITDA of JPY9.9bn.

• For 1H FY03/26, revenue decreased 7.7% YoY to JPY154.5bn, with operating profit down 16.6% YoY to JPY4.5bn.
• The company revised FY03/26 forecast, lowering revenue by JPY19.0bn and operating profit by JPY2.1bn due to external disruptions.
• Full-year dividend forecast remains JPY90.0 per share, with a projected payout ratio of 38.5%.

• Sales increased by 16.5% YoY to JPY196.4bn, with growth across all business segments, and operating profit rose by 33.5% YoY.
• Toys segment sales reached JPY86.0bn (+10.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY5.0bn (+12.0% YoY), driven by lottery products.
• Dividend policy revised to JPY60.0 per share for FY03/26, with a target payout ratio of 40%.

• Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.’s third-quarter earnings call for fiscal 2025 offered a detailed view of the company’s current performance and strategic initiatives.
• Both positive trends and challenges were evident in the results and future outlook.
• On the positive side, the company reported an increase in diluted earnings per share, rising by 10.4% from the previous year to $0.53, surpassing the guidance range.