Consumer

Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.
The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.
Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

By Special Situation Investments

Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings offered insights into both the opportunities and challenges the company faces in various business segments.
On the positive side, Comcast highlighted robust performance in several growth areas, particularly in residential broadband, wireless, and theme parks.
The strategic shift towards these growth segments is a central part of the company’s business model.

Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas

Lifeway Foods is likely to be sold to Danone, with a potential 14%+ upside, following board changes.
Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating a strategic review, indicating potential for a higher acquisition premium.
Liquidia’s patent lawsuit win enables drug commercialization, expected to gain market share and significantly increase valuation.

DoorDash Makes a Bold $3.6 Billion Move: Is Deliveroo the Missing Piece for Global Domination?

DoorDash has been making significant headlines with its proposed $3.6 billion acquisition offer for UK-based Deliveroo, signaling its continued ambition to expand beyond the U.S. market.
The deal, offering Deliveroo shareholders £1.80 ($2.40) per share, would value Deliveroo at approximately GBP2.7 billion, or around $3.6 billion.
Deliveroo’s board has indicated that it would be “minded to recommend” the offer if a firm bid is made under those terms.

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

By Andrei Zakharov

Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.

Meritage Homes: Partnerships & Realtor Engagement to Enhance Market Reach & Sales Effectiveness!

Meritage Homes showed a resilient performance in the first quarter of 2025, balancing the challenging macroeconomic landscape with strategic operational adjustments.
Despite encountering a slower-than-expected start to the year, the company managed to achieve its second-highest first-quarter orders and closings in its history, reflecting its adaptability and strategic pivot towards a 60-day closing-ready inventory.
The company sold nearly 3,900 homes in Q1, achieving a 22% home closing gross margin and $1.3 billion in home closing revenue.

PepsiCo: Can Its New Innovation-Driven Playbook Rewrite the Rules of Snack & Beverage Success?

PepsiCo’s recent earnings highlighted several critical elements investors should consider, providing an insightful overview of both the opportunities and challenges facing the company.
On the positive side, the company’s international operations are clearly a growth engine, with markets outside the U.S. continuing to show robust performance.
The international segment recorded substantial growth in the quarter despite macroeconomic uncertainties in some regions like China and Mexico.

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May 02

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Sony Corp, Shinsegae, Kayou, Ebay Inc, Luckin Coffee, Ginebra San Miguel , TVS Motor , Nihon Chouzai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung
Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China
Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom
[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales
Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth
TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?
Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

Content-Driven growth: Strong performance in music and gaming supports Sony’s shift toward high-margin content, insulating it from trade and macro headwinds.
Upcoming catalysts: Spin-off of Sony Financial and potential restructuring could unlock value and address the long-standing conglomerate discount.
Attractive valuation: Trading at 14x EV/EBIT with defensive sector exposure, Sony remains undervalued relative to global peers despite YTD outperformance.

Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung

By Douglas Kim

On 30 April, Lee Myung-Hee (Chairwoman of Shinsegae Group) decided to transfer all of her 10.2% stake in Shinsegae (004170 KS) as a gift to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung.
After this gift, Chung Yoo-Kyung’s ownership in Shinsegae will rise from 18.95% to 29.16%.
We are positive on this share transfer of 10.2% stake in Shinsegae from mother (Lee Myung-Hee) to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung on the share price impact on Shinsegae.

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

By Andrei Zakharov

Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.
Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.
Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.

Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom

By Michael Causton

Qoo10 is tiny in comparison to Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo but it punches well above its weight by specialisation.
The online mall’s focus on Korean cosmetics and lifestyle has given it a depth of loyalty among young women that was once the preserve of Zozo.
Along with its other platform Move, Ebay Japan has built a solid presence in the Japanese market which looks set to continue to expand.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C1Q25 revenue in-line/6% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 9%/75% higher than our estimate/consensus, thanks to warmer weather and constrained marketing spending;
Despite Luckin pre-emptive lock-ins, rising coffee bean price shall still take its toll as Luckin’s biggest rival Starbucks should be equally capable of managing the commodity price risk.
We keep Luckin as BUY rating but cut TP to US$39.

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth

By Sameer Taneja

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.6% and 10.8% YoY. Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.6% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.
EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.2%, while the company saw a massive increase in cash and investments to 16.2 bn pesos from 12.8 bn pesos, led by working capital inflows.
Trading at 10x PE with 20% of the market cap in cash and investments, and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR, this is a name to explore.

TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Robust Operating Performance:TVS Motor (TVSL IN) reported 17% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25 with EBITDA margins at 12.5% (ex-PLI) — stable despite input cost pressures.
EV Momentum & Premium Product Strength: EV sales rose 54% YoY, and TVS continued to gain traction in the premium segment through its Apache and Ntorq models.
Valuation Demands Flawless Execution:At 58x P/E TTM EPS,TVS commands a steep premium over peers.Justifying this requires sustained outperformance in EV adoption, export monetization, and premium product cycles without margin erosion.

Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Sales increased by 5.9% YoY to JPY360.5bn, but operating profit decreased by 31.8% YoY to JPY6.2bn.
Pharmaceutical Manufacturing faced a JPY630mn operating loss due to NHI drug price revisions and manufacturing deficiencies.
FY03/26 forecasts sales of JPY372.8bn (+3.4% YoY) and net income of JPY3.5bn (+151.6% YoY).

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May 01

Daily Brief Consumer: Aisin , Toyota Industries, Deliveroo, Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd, SunCar Technology Group , Woongjin Co Ltd, JAKKS Pacific , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Green Tea Group, Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon
Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.
Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO
JAKK: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Remain Cautious; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT
A Guide May Be Offered to Disclose MTPs that Focus More on Strategy Rather than Matching Numbers
Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion
Chery Auto Pre-IPO – The Positives – Very Strong Earnings Growth

Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback.
Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)‘s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) (PHVL) is looking to raise around US$317m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, CLSA, JPM, Kotak.
PHVL is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
As of Dec 24, PHVL’s portfolio includes seven operating hospitality assets with a total of 1,445 keys, including one property under renovation with 190 keys.

SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

SunCar Technology Group ((NASDAQ: SDA) is a leading Chinese cloud-based provider of digital enterprise auto services and auto eInsurance services in China.
The company offers one-stop, fully digital, on-demand automotive service systems to help enterprise clients build up their customer base and serve their end customers (auto owners).
The company has grown revenues rapidly in recent years, which we expect to continue in the near-to-midterm.

Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO

By Douglas Kim

Woongjin Co Ltd (016880 KS) (through its subsidiary WJ Life Holdings) is buying the controlling interest in Preed Life (largest funeral service company in Korea) using LBO (leveraged buyout).
Preed Life is the number one player in the funeral service provider industry in Korea. It has excellent financials and it has done an excellent job of consolidating this industry.
All in all, we like this acquisition of Preed Life by Woongjin using LBO. Preed Life has stable cash flow generation and strong growth in sales and profits.

JAKK: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Remain Cautious; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target on JAKKS Pacific after the company demonstrated the overall strength of their business model and management’s ability to “control what they can control” with a highly impressive 1Q25.
That said, we are reducing our 2025 and 2026 projections to reflect the near-term material uncertainty from the imposition of over 100% tariffs on China goods from April onward.
While we believe JAKKS is well positioned, with strong trade, licensee and retailer relationships, a focus on lower priced goods, the ability to shift some production from China and to increase the level of international revenue, to weather the current storm and drive potential upside, we believe the current level of uncertainty will be a drag, which will begin to abate in 4Q25 and into 2026.

A Guide May Be Offered to Disclose MTPs that Focus More on Strategy Rather than Matching Numbers

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s progress that more companies are including ROE and ROIC as KPIs in mid-term management plans. On the other hand, it’s true that many disclosures are misaligned with investors’ perspectives.
As a result of not taking action on problem businesses, it’s often the case that deteriorating environment increases losses of the business, leading to revision of the “medium-term management plan.”
Investors are more likely to portray corporate value if a company provides measures for problem solving and growth, and reliable execution, rather than goals that are uncertain to be achieved.

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion

By Troy Wong

Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citi and CMBI.
GTG is a leading Casual Chinese restaurant chain operator in Mainland China, its revenue growth has been driven mainly via rapid store expansion.
Persistently negative SSSG post-COVID could signal potential cannibalization or a negative impact from a shift in consumer spending behavior.

Chery Auto Pre-IPO – The Positives – Very Strong Earnings Growth

By Sumeet Singh

Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Consumer: Dickson Concepts Intl, PointsBet Holdings , Fujitsu General, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Aeon Co Ltd, Fonterra Co-Operative Group, BYD, Eco-Shop Marketing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal
Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions
Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look
Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles
BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.
The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash.
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.

Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal

The Paloma-Rheem Tender Offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) was expected to start in early July but is starting 10 weeks earlier. Big win for arbs.
This was going to be a done deal. It didn’t trade rich to terms and it’s tough to see why activists would push when they haven’t pushed for years.
The deal is now trading tight. Long arbs should probably re-allocate. Those hiding their beta here should hide their beta elsewhere.

Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago

By Sumeet Singh

Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage. Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks – 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists – mostly from Japanese property.

Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the “Mainland Group”.
However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed.

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.
Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout.

Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper

By Nicholas Tan

Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) is looking to raise up to US$241m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
It is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates, as of 31 October 2024.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

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Apr 29

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Ainsworth Game Technology, Amara Holdings, Toyota Motor, Hyundai Motor India , Geely Auto, Ather Energy, Lionsgate Studios and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer
Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion.
Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment.
There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline.

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.
Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done.

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price.
Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional.
The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025.
This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country.
The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.
Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.
It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Alibaba Group Holding , Laopu Gold, Seven & I Holdings, Deliveroo, Sheng Siong, SHEIN, Ather Energy, China New Higher Education and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai
Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover
Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?
May 1st Marks End of US “De Minimis” Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress
Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.
Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).
A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

By Brian Freitas

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).

Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.
Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.
The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

By Devi Subhakesan

The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.
DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant’s brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.
Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.

May 1st Marks End of US “De Minimis” Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

By Daniel Hellberg

Crucial US “de minimis” imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling.

China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China New Higher Education (2001 HK)‘s gearing (including contract liabilities) has come down to 61.2% in 1H25, from 69.9% in FY24 and 84.1% in FY23 – an encouraging trend.
Net profit grew 8.6%, even faster than the full-year consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. There are multiple drivers that support its medium-term outlook.
CNHE trades on 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B, but the FY25 ROE is a solid 16.6%. Should the payout ratio remain unchanged, its yield will reach 28.4%.

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Apr 27

Daily Brief Consumer: Trip.com, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Fujitsu General, BYD, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Next PLC, Pearson Plc, Tesla , Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism
A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall Sharply; “Feels” Risk-On But Noisy Spreads
Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied
BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside
Expect Gradual Improvement in the Quality of Listed Companies as More Companies Go Private
NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?
Pearson Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Could U.S. Policy Shifts Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Growth Surge?
Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!
LVMH: Initiation of Coverage- Can Its Latest Brand Revitalization & Portfolio Management Be A Potential Game Changer?

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism

By Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya booked a slower-than-expected finish to FY2024, with some compression to margins, but mainly due to the temporary impact of investment in the business and higher promotions.
The company has seen a strong start to FY2025, with SSSG growing at a faster pace than FY2024, with a strong performance over the run-up to Ramadan.
Alfamart will continues to expand its store network in 2025, with Lawson under AMRT to bring future synergy benefits. Valuations look attractive with a more positive outlook for earnings.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall Sharply; “Feels” Risk-On But Noisy Spreads

AH Premia fall sharply. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. That has taken a pause. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping. Alpha good again this week.

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for Paloma Rheem Holdings’ tender offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) is satisfied. The offer is from 28 April to 28 May.
Despite an arguably light offer and less than ideal process, this is a done deal due to a lack of opposition and no competing offer.
At the last close and for a 5 June payment, the gross and annualised spreads are 1.3% and 14.1%, respectively.

BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

By Ming Lu

In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY.
We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the competition in the coming market concentration.
The P/E band suggests an upside of 59% for the end of 2025.

Expect Gradual Improvement in the Quality of Listed Companies as More Companies Go Private

By Aki Matsumoto

Although it’ll take some time for quality of existing listed companies to improve, a gradual improvement in quality of companies is likely for the time being as more companies delist.
The TSE’s “request” was not only for activist investors, but also for other investors who shared the view that the stock market should not be left in the doldrums.
A certain number of companies that fail to meet TSE listing criteria will move to the regional stock exchanges, leading to a gradual improvement in the quality of the TSE.

NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?

NEXT, a prominent UK-based retail company, has reported its latest financial results, demonstrating both strengths and challenges in its operations.
This summary captures the core aspects of NEXT’s performance, the strategic decisions made, and the roadmap ahead as outlined in their recent earnings call.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Pearson Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Could U.S. Policy Shifts Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Growth Surge?

Pearson PLC’s 2024 performance showcased a blend of strategic advancements and financial resilience.
The company reported a robust financial outcome, aligning with market expectations.
A key highlight was the sales growth of 3% and a significant profit increase of 10%, resulting in an EBIT margin of 16.9%.

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Tesla’s first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.
Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla’s stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.
Critical to the stock’s resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.

LVMH: Initiation of Coverage- Can Its Latest Brand Revitalization & Portfolio Management Be A Potential Game Changer?

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.E. reported a year characterized by resilience against a backdrop of global economic challenges.
The company saw marginal organic revenue growth, but a decline in operating income, largely influenced by significant non-recurring expenses related to major events such as the sponsorship of the Olympics and the renovation of Notre Dame.
These strategic brand visibility investments also mark a considerable outlay impacting current operating margins.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Consumer: Devyani International , Sands China , Coupang , Sodexo SA, Istyle Inc, Kering, Michelin, Pernod Ricard Sa, Publicis Groupe Sa, Renault SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Devyani International’s Acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality: A Strategic Move for Accelerated Growth
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?
Sodexo: Initiation of Coverage- Can Bold U.S. Expansions & Smart Tech Disrupt the Food Service Game?
IStyle (3660 JP) Ups Investment in Retail
Kering SA – Integration of A New Creative Vision Is Driving Our Optimism!
Michelin – Can Its Growth in Specialty Segments Boost Overall Profit Margins?
Pernod Ricard- An Insight Into The Various Macro-Economic Factors
Publicis Groupe: Initiation of Coverage- Expanding Influence in Pharma Sector & 3 Critical Growth Levers!
Renault SA: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Tie-Ups with Geely Can Unlock Untapped Market Riches!

Devyani International’s Acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality: A Strategic Move for Accelerated Growth

By Nimish Maheshwari

Devyani International acquired an Indian QSR brand, Sky Gate, marking its entry into Biryani.
The acquisition deal is valued at INR 4.19 billion, translating to a relatively low 1.9x FY25 EV/Sales. This attractive valuation provides DIL with an entry into a high-TAM segment.
No single brand has surpassed INR 3 bn in revenue due to regional taste differences, difficulty in standardising quality, and difficulty in achieving profitability due to high operational costs

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sands China, SK Hynix
The rebound in US equity continued overnight, amid bets the Fed could cut rates sooner than anticipated to prevent a recession. The S&P 500 rallied by 2%, while US treasuries rallied 7-9 bps across the curve.
Some 5 bps of additional Fed cuts were priced in for 2025 after comments by Fed officials. Gold climbed 1.7%, continuing its strong rally YTD.

JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?

By Douglas Kim

In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean market.
We believe that the ongoing tariff war between the US and China is likely to have accelerated this move by JD Logistics to find new markets for its products.
If JD.com/JD Logistics decide to expand aggressively in Korea, the major Korean e-commerce players (such as Coupang (CPNG US), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Gmarket, and 11st) may be negatively impacted.

Sodexo: Initiation of Coverage- Can Bold U.S. Expansions & Smart Tech Disrupt the Food Service Game?

Sodexo reported its first half fiscal 2025 results, addressing the challenges and adjustments needed to align their operations with strategic expectations.
The firm revised its annual guidance due to slower-than-anticipated growth, with key impacts centered in North America.
Despite this, Sodexo maintains confidence in its long-term strategies and operational resilience.

IStyle (3660 JP) Ups Investment in Retail

By Michael Causton

IStyle continues to benefit from its focus on omnichannel retailing.
Customers who use both its online and physical stores spend 1.5 times more than those only shopping online,
To further cement its hold in key areas, it has just unveiled an updated flagship store with target sales of ¥10 billion.

Kering SA – Integration of A New Creative Vision Is Driving Our Optimism!

Kering S.A.’s 2024 financial performance did not meet initial expectations due to ongoing transformation efforts and adverse market conditions.
The company remains committed to a long-term strategy focusing on brand health and avoiding immediate fixes.
Kering’s brand portfolio, which includes Gucci, Kering Eyewear, and Kering Beauté, is evolving with a focus on individual brand strategies within a unified framework aimed at elevating their product offerings Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Michelin – Can Its Growth in Specialty Segments Boost Overall Profit Margins?

The latest financial results of Compagnie Générale des Établissements Michelin, commonly known as Michelin, reflect a period of both notable achievements and challenges.
The company’s performance demonstrates resilience amidst varied market conditions, leveraging its renowned brand and innovation prowess to navigate the competitive landscape.
Michelin’s strategic focus on its “Michelin in Motion Strategy 2030” is evident, aiming to expand beyond its core tire business into services, experiences, and polymer composite solutions.

Pernod Ricard- An Insight Into The Various Macro-Economic Factors

Pernod Ricard’s recent fiscal year 2024 financial performance reflects a mix of challenges and strategic responses.
The company’s overall organic net sales showed stability, registering a slight decline of 1%, which would have been a 1% increase excluding the exit from Russia.
A significant performance disparity was observed between markets: strength in mature and emerging markets was counterbalanced by a slower recovery in the United States and weaker results in China.

Publicis Groupe: Initiation of Coverage- Expanding Influence in Pharma Sector & 3 Critical Growth Levers!

Publicis Groupe delivered robust financial performance in 2024, marking a distinctive year for the company.
The organization achieved an organic growth rate of 5.8%, outperforming its peers and establishing Publicis as the largest advertising network globally by net revenue.
The company’s financial achievements were bolstered by strategic investments in AI and talent, reinforcing its competitive positioning in the industry.

Renault SA: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Tie-Ups with Geely Can Unlock Untapped Market Riches!

Renault Group presented its 2024 financial results, revealing robust performance driven by disciplined operations and strategic repositioning.
On a positive note, the company achieved an operating margin of 7.6%, equating to EUR 4.3 billion, the highest in its 126-year history.
Additionally, Renault generated nearly EUR 3 billion in free cash flow, leading to a net cash position of over EUR 7 billion.

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Apr 25

Daily Brief Consumer: Dickson Concepts Intl, Pop Mart International Group L, Sheng Siong, Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, Vince Holding, Ather Energy, Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard?
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Controlling Shareholder to Privatise a Negative EV Play?
Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer
The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Growing AZKO Stores and Private Label
VNCE: Snapping the Store; Moving to Another Winning Season; Reiterate Buy, PT
Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough
Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A – Actinver Research
It Is Not a Question of Whether Investment in Growth or Shareholder Return Is Better

Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard?

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) (DC), which is principally engaged in the sale of luxury goods business, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
DC’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& spouse), hold 60.5%. Super-net-cash rich DC is trading in sync with historical metrics. 1H25 (Mar Y/E) net profit dropped 40.1%. Shares are roughly flat yoy.
Given DC’s cash hoard, taking the company private makes sense. I doubt Poon is seeking to exit his stake.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) ’s stock has nearly doubled in three months, fueled by surging revenue and the breakout popularity of its Labubu dolls.
Driven by strong international expansion and solid omni-channel demand in its home market, Pop Mart reported over 165% revenue growth in 1Q2025 compared to the same period last year.
Investors remain split on whether Pop Mart’s unconventional products and marketing are driven by lasting fandom or just a passing trend.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Controlling Shareholder to Privatise a Negative EV Play?

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to The Code on Takeovers and Mergers, which constitutes inside information of the Company.”
The controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) is likely seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme, particularly as the shares trade below net cash.
While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test and a decent AGM participation rate necessitate an attractive offer. The potential offer price range is HK$5.60-9.24.

Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer

By Tan Yee Peng

We analysed Sheng Siong’s success over the years to see what its secret sauce is and what made the retailer so successful.
It has punched its weight above its competitors with a set of strong financial metrics. Its ability to generate free cash flow and achieve a high return on equity are truly impressive.
However, Sheng Siong is at an inflection point now as its revenue and net profit have stagnated since the pandemic.

The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN), With a sharp pivot post-IPO, it has deleveraged, scaled Flurys to 100 outlets, and launched ARR-led palace properties, all while staying asset-light and cash-smart.
F&B now contributes nearly half of revenues, ARRs are climbing, and legacy land is being monetised to fund INR 500 crore of capex without debt.
Earlier seen as a traditional hotel chain, Park now to be looked as a brand with strong visibility, smart capital use, and fresh retail momentum.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Growing AZKO Stores and Private Label

By Angus Mackintosh

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) released a solid set of FY2024 results, with SSSG and headline coming in ahead of expectations, with the company expanding its stores by 20 outlets.
The key concern from the results was the slower guidance for SSSG and sales for 2025, despite a more aggressive store rollout this year, especially outside Java.
Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia continues to push the AZKO brand with higher promotional spend, offset by the lack of royalties to ACES US. Guidance looks conservative and valuations look attractive historically.

VNCE: Snapping the Store; Moving to Another Winning Season; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $6 price target for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
We believe the company has continued to drive strong in-store results with impressive product offerings, continued expansion of the color palette, a deepening commitment to the men’s arena (and accessories), a focus on key tops and providing seasonal twists to key items such as sweaters and dresses.
Further, Vince continues to focus on full price selling, maintaining discipline during key events in terms of overall price cuts, which we believe will help overall returns.

Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates since then and valuations.

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A – Actinver Research

By Actinver

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our low growth estimates, while Exports grew 21%, better than expected and aided by FX tailwinds.
Margins were on average in line with our estimates, contracting YoY and with EBITDA margin of 25.1% in line with long-term target range of 25-27%.
At the gross margin level, results were underperforming amid a 410bps YoY contraction, yet EBIT and EBITDA margins contracted less and were slightly above our cautious estimates.

It Is Not a Question of Whether Investment in Growth or Shareholder Return Is Better

By Aki Matsumoto

While the absolute amount of share repurchases has increased, many companies face challenges in using cash, given the slow growth in ROE and depth of equity capital over a decade.
While growth investment should increase corporate value, it’s important for managers to manage to earn returns commensurate with investment risk, and to return cash to shareholders without taking unnecessary risks.
The question is not whether investment in growth or shareholder return is better, but whether the company was managing its business in a shareholder-friendly manner.

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Apr 24

Daily Brief Consumer: GMO Internet, Panasonic Corp, Trent Ltd, BYD, Shimano Inc, Bama Tea, Liuliu Orchard Group, Gruma SAB de CV, JAKKS Pacific , Guess? Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas
BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results
Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting
Pre-IPO Bama Tea – The Business Model, the Challenges and the Outlook
Liuliu Orchard Group Co Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Gruma SAB de CV – Actinver Research
JAKK: 1Q Preview: Staring Into the Abyss; Reiterate Buy, PT
GES: Snapping the Store: Beginning to Bloom; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT

StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.

Negligible float, 150x+ forward earnings – yes, investors can afford NOT to have GMO Internet (4784 JP) in their portfolio.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

By Brian Freitas

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be three ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and eight ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

By Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 – 10 billion.
Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.
Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.

Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting

By Mark Chadwick

Shimano beat Q1 profit expectations but stuck to cautious full-year guidance, signalling stabilisation in bike markets rather than a real recovery.
Margins improved, inventories stabilised — but Shimano’s profitability remains well below historic highs, with recovery likely to stay slow and steady.
Strong balance sheet, resilient pricing, limited US exposure: Shimano looks a defensive bet, even if management’s guidance ends up on the optimistic side.

Pre-IPO Bama Tea – The Business Model, the Challenges and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The most significant issue in the domestic tea industry is product standardization. This makes it difficult for tea companies to expand their market share and achieve economies of scale.
Bama’s revenue growth showed an upward trend, but the growth rate is declining. There’re already signs of growth stagnation. High selling and marketing expenses will put pressure on profit margin.
Lancang and Tenfu Caymans (6868 HK) are comparable peers. Due to larger market share/revenue scale and higher profit margin in 24Q1-Q3, we think Bama’s valuation should be higher than peers.

Liuliu Orchard Group Co Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Liuliu Orchard Group (LLO HK) (LOGCL) is planning to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citic and Guoyuan.
The company was established in 1999. It is one of the leading producers of plum-based products in China’s fruit snacks category.
As per F&S Report, LOGCL ranked first in China’s fruit snacks industry by retail sales value, with a market share of 4.9% in 2024.

Gruma SAB de CV – Actinver Research

By Actinver

Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus.
Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with Gruma USA and Mexico posting contracting sales, on average -2.4% and the latter impacted by FX headwinds.
Central America, on the other hand, posted solid healthy amid high demand, while Europe continues to benefit from its distribution strategy, and Australia offsets China’s performance.

JAKK: 1Q Preview: Staring Into the Abyss; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Wednesday.
While we believe our 1Q projections reflected tariff conditions correctly, with April tariff levels increasing on goods from China to 125%, we are entering uncharted territory where, frankly, our current projections probably do not apply.
We believe JAKKS Pacific management will have to rebuild their business model, which could entail higher pricing, deeper focus internationally (21% of 2024 sales), lower S,G&A and licensing spend and, longer term, shifting what can be shifted in terms of production from China, which currently accounts for virtually all product manufacturing.

GES: Snapping the Store: Beginning to Bloom; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT