Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Brilliance China Automotive, BYD , Ninebot and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.
  • Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.
  • A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That’s six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
  • I currently expect one ADD and one DEL for the STAR 50 index in December 2023.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Millie Seojae , ZJLD Group , JD.com , Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Under Armour and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Millie’s Library IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  More Near-Term Upside Expected
  • JD.com Inc ADR: Collaboration With Gucci & Other Drivers
  • Is Engagement Functioning Well with The “Engagement-Enhanced Passive” Approach Adopted by GPIF?
  • Under Armour Inc.: Can The New UA Rewards Program Further Boost Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Duplicate of Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments


Millie’s Library IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Millie’s Library (418470 KS) announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 23,000 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 1,915 institutions participated in this IPO survey and the demand ratio of 619.2 to 1.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests base case target price of 31,769 won per share, which is 38% higher than the the IPO price of 23,000 won.

ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  More Near-Term Upside Expected

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Since the inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect 7 trading days ago, ZJLD Group (6979 HK)’s stock price is up 16%, suggesting strong interest from the southbound investors.
  • ZJLD has one of the best channel inventory and distributor perception among all the sauce aroma baijiu brands currently.
  • Expect further share price upside mainly from southbound buy, as the baijiu sector is one of the most followed sectors in A-share.     

JD.com Inc ADR: Collaboration With Gucci & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com Inc. managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Service revenues grew, of which marketing and marketplace revenues were up.
  • During the quarter, JD.com noticed strong user engagement trends, including higher purchase rates and ARPU on its app.

Is Engagement Functioning Well with The “Engagement-Enhanced Passive” Approach Adopted by GPIF?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The GPIF employs a “passive enhanced engagement” approach, which is linked to TOPIX and engages in engagement activities with the portfolio companies. This approach should be examined for any challenges.
  • The challenge is whether GPIF’s extremely low management fees can engage in deep engagement with a large number of portfolio companies to reduce tracking error from TOPIX.
  • GPIF cites its inability to invest in equities in-house and the huge AUM as reasons for its bias toward passive funds. If this is an obstacle, reform should be considered.

Under Armour Inc.: Can The New UA Rewards Program Further Boost Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Revenue decreased by 1% after considering the adverse effects of foreign exchange brought on by the strength of the US dollar.
  • Direct-to-consumer revenue climbed 4% to $544 million, owing to strong results in the e-commerce and retail channels.

Duplicate of Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Revenue decreased by 1% after considering the adverse effects of foreign exchange brought on by the strength of the US dollar.
  • Direct-to-consumer revenue climbed 4% to $544 million, owing to strong results in the e-commerce and retail channels.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Intage Holdings, Aisin Seiki, Tuhu Car, IMAX China Holding, Ryohin Keikaku, Perfect Medical Health and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations
  • The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually
  • Tuhu Car IPO – Peers Have Corrected, Little to No Upside Left on the Table
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October
  • TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights
  • IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote
  • Aisin (7259) | MTP Gains Traction
  • Tuhu Car IPO: Keep the Drive
  • Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance
  • Perfect Medical : Previewing the H1 FY24, Soft China To Lessen Growth


NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week I wrote about NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) – (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
  • In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
  • So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.

The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Group autoparts maker Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) today announced a new Medium-Term Plan. They plan to shift their business away from “entrusted” business, towards BEV, Brakes, and “Safe/Comfort Entry”
  • They aim to grow revenues 25% from 2021 to 2025 and an additional 10-20% by 2030. 
  • They also aim to improve investment and capital efficiency, and that’s where we can look at the interesting possibilities.

Tuhu Car IPO – Peers Have Corrected, Little to No Upside Left on the Table

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise around US$160m in its Hong Kong IPO. Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • In earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance, discussed our earnings assumptions and our thoughts on Tuhu’s valuation.
  • In this note, we discuss valuations at the final price range.

IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

By Arun George

  • IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)‘s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers IMAX Corp (IMAX US)‘s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. 

TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share.
  • In TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case, we highlighted the key elements of the investment case. In this note, we present our forecasts and discuss valuation.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO. 

IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 13 July, IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share. Terms have been declared final.
  • The price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day, suggesting apparent news leakage.
  • The Scheme Doc is out and independent shareholders get to vote on the transaction on the 10th October. This vote could – should – be close. Only for the brave.

Aisin (7259) | MTP Gains Traction

By Mark Chadwick

  • Aisin’s stock price rose by +8% today after the company held its MTP strategy briefing
  • Aisin to restructure its business portfolio and focus on new growth areas for EV’s – eAxle, battery frames, and braking technologies
  • Aisin aims to generate ¥400b from balance sheet reform – asset sales, inventory management and sale of cross-shareholding.

Tuhu Car IPO: Keep the Drive

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is planning to raise around US$160m in its upcoming HKEx IPO.
  • The company’s franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Tuhu Car’s business model, business segments and financials and we will discuss the company’s valuation in a follow-up insight.

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.
  • Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.
  • Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.

Perfect Medical : Previewing the H1 FY24, Soft China To Lessen Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) will report its H1 2024 results in late November 2023. We expect slow China growth to result in revenue/profit growth of 10%/15% YoY. 
  • The company will continue to open outlets in HK, and the plan is to open ten by the end of FY24 (3-4 at the end of H1FY24e).  
  • The stock trades at 12.7x PE FY24e, with an 8.7% dividend yield and around 16% of the market capitalization in net cash and investments (~800 mn HKD). 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Duni AB, Ninebot , Haier Smart Home , Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mellby Gård/Duni: Start of Mandatory Offer Period
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact
  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Healthy Growth Despite Challenges
  • The First Thing Managers Should Do Is Disclose Their Cost of Capital and Their Company’s Return


Mellby Gård/Duni: Start of Mandatory Offer Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 14 August, Mellby Gård crossed the 30% threshold and announced a mandatory offer for all shares of Duni AB (DUNI SS) at SEK 98.6/share. The offer period started 12 September.
  • The offer represents 0.41% premium to prior day to threshold crossing. Mellby Gård doesn’t seem interested in completing a takeover, rather being able to increase its stake after offer completion.
  • The offer represents 0.41% premium, 6.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 11.1 Fwd P/E (vs. 5-year averages of 8.8x and 15.4x). Gross spread is 2.1%, I wouldn’t get involved above SEK 95.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.
  • One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Healthy Growth Despite Challenges

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The weak share price of Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) looks unjustified given its healthy 1H23 result and solid financial position with net cash equals 11% of share price. 
  • We anticipate product advancement and innovation will allow HSH to gain more market share. Its high-end brand Casarte will sustain as an important driver for earnings performance.
  • Gross margin looks to have room to expand due to better cost dynamics with digitalisation and AI initiatives. Continued growth in developing overseas market is also positive. 

The First Thing Managers Should Do Is Disclose Their Cost of Capital and Their Company’s Return

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While 4% of the number of companies mentioned in annual securities reports regarding P/B, half of companies have P/B of below 1x, which suggests managers still lack sense of urgency.
  • Many companies that mention P/B in their annual securities reports rely on share repurchases, and their presentation of strategies to increase cash flow is weak.
  • Clearly stating the cost of capital will lead to more appropriate ROE and ROIC targets and disclosure of specific measures to achieve them.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Poly Culture Group Corp H, Li Auto , Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Universal Entertainment, Dollar General, Hormel Foods, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Poly Culture (3636 HK): Trading Wide To Terms. Get Involved.
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$255m in December
  • Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH):  Weakening Moat With Further Derating Likely
  • US Judge Rules Favorably for Okada Manila Dispute with Former Spac Partner
  • Dollar General Corporation: Activist Interest Looms After Recent Drop! – Major Drivers
  • Hormel Foods Corporation: Unveiling the Powerhouses Behind Their Volume Boost! – Major Drivers
  • Lululemon Athletica Inc.: Tapping into International Markets – A Game-Changing Move? Major Drivers
  • Chewy Inc.: Delving Into The Major Drivers Taking The Company Forward! – Financial Forecasts


Poly Culture (3636 HK): Trading Wide To Terms. Get Involved.

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27 June, art and culture play Poly Culture Group Corp H (3636 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$8.88 per H-share.
  • This Offer from SOE Poly Group is by way of a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
  • The pre-cons have now been fulfilled. The Composite Document, including the H Share Class meeting/EGM date and IFA opinion, is expected to be despatched on or before the 30 September. 

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$255m in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With no stocks in inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.
  • Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of a touch below 1% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$255m.
  • The impact on the stocks is relatively small for now but that could increase till the end of November when the stocks will be capped.

Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH):  Weakening Moat With Further Derating Likely

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), the largest condiment player in China is facing structural weakening of moat from a changed operating environment post-COVID. 
  • Both catering and home consumption segments are faced with structural growth pressures that are difficult to solve for the company. 
  • Expect further earnings weakness and derating in valuation multiple in the near term. 

US Judge Rules Favorably for Okada Manila Dispute with Former Spac Partner

By Howard J Klein

  • Japan’s Universal Entertainment’s Okada Manila casino unit removes another obstacle to its long quest to transform into a NASDAQ traded IPO.
  • Judge rules that Okada is free of any obligations to US Space 26 Capital Partners.
  • UE’s goal to take the casino public, despite expectations that the Spac will appeal, is likely to move forward toward identifying a new partner.

Dollar General Corporation: Activist Interest Looms After Recent Drop! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar General Corporation’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Due to higher average borrowing amounts and interest rates, interest expense climbed to $84 million in Q2 from $43 million in Q2 of last year.
  • Dollar General has experienced a significant drop in its stock value this year, sparking speculation about potential activist investors eyeing the company.

Hormel Foods Corporation: Unveiling the Powerhouses Behind Their Volume Boost! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hormel Foods Corporation delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Additionally, Hormel Foods recently introduced an LTO for the fall season: apple cider donut-flavored cashews, which the team anticipates will increase category volume and attention.
  • Hormel Foods noticed a recovery across the turkey portfolio in its Retail segment and increased volume in important categories.

Lululemon Athletica Inc.: Tapping into International Markets – A Game-Changing Move? Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lululemon Athletica delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, exceeding the management’s projections for revenue and EPS.
  • Comparable sales increased by 17% online and 9% in-store, and adjusted EPS rose by 22% over the same time last year.
  • In July, Lululemon Athletica established its first site in Thailand, making it the 100th APAC facility overall.

Chewy Inc.: Delving Into The Major Drivers Taking The Company Forward! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Chewy delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, producing mid-teens growth that exceeded expectations as well as strong profitability.
  • The number of active customers was almost steady sequentially, but the net sales per active customer, or NSPAC, rose by 15% to $530.
  • Net sales growth was boosted by active customer participation, highlighting the steadily growing strength of the Chewy ecosystem.

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Daily Brief Consumer: I-NE , Poly Culture Group Corp H, Meituan, PDD Holdings , Genting Bhd, Tuhu Car, Las Vegas Sands, Nongfu Spring , Instacart, Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Ne (4933) Offering Priced, Now to a TOPIX Inclusion
  • Poly Culture (3636 HK): Pre-Condition Fulfilled
  • Meituan (3690 HK): Strong Bottom Line Growth Will Prove to Be Short-Lived
  • Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU
  • Genting Berhad – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Tuhu Car (途虎) Pre-IPO: Why Sedan Owners Choose Tuhu
  • StubWorld: LVS Trading “Cheap” As Macau Recovers
  • Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Tea Revenue Up by 60%, 40% Upside, Buy
  • Instacart IPO Preview
  • Yaizu Suidankagaku (2812) | An Odorous Deal


I-Ne (4933) Offering Priced, Now to a TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Skincare/Cosmetics company I-NE (4933 JP) on 31 August (¥2947) announced it would move to TSE Prime on 19 September, and announced a Secondary Offering by CEO Onishi-san to get there.
  • There was no greenshoe provided. The stock popped. Then drifted back to ¥3025 and the Offering priced today at ¥2,934/share. 
  • 75% went to Asian/European (non-US) offshore investors, and the rest to onshore institutions, which is unusual. But now we look to the TOPIX inclusion.

Poly Culture (3636 HK): Pre-Condition Fulfilled

By Arun George

  • The pre-condition relating to Poly Culture Group Corp H (3636 HK)’s privatisation offer from Poly Group at HK$8.88 per H Share has been fulfilled. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). No independent H Shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • The offer’s 77.6% premium to the undisturbed price and no minimum acceptance condition will help completion. At the last close and for 1 November completion, the gross/annualised spread is 7.1%/64.3%.

Meituan (3690 HK): Strong Bottom Line Growth Will Prove to Be Short-Lived

By Eric Chen

  • The street’s expectations for Meituan’s bottom line have gone too pessimistic for 2023 while in the meantime too optimistic for 2024 and beyond.
  • Besides the macro weakness, we see the company’s growth increasingly be constrained by the business model itself, resulting in only 14% CAGR for bottom line over 2023-25 by our calculation.
  • We take investors’ indifference to Meituan’s strong bottom line growth for 2023 as a signal they are discounting the sharp deceleration kicking in from 2024. Stay neutral.

Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Grizzly Research’s track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like NIO (NIO US), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US), and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US), hasn’t been successful lately.
  • Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, PDD Holdings (PDD US).
  • Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo’s shopping app, “TEMU,” is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.

Genting Berhad – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view Genting Berhad as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a diversified business profile, having successfully expanded its gaming operations to six countries. In addition, it has minor businesses in plantations, oil & gas and power generation. Genting Berhad has a solid business position in Malaysia (where it is the sole casino licence holder) and Singapore (where it operates in a duopoly with Marina Bay Sands). Despite Genting Berhad’s expansion over the years, the company has maintained a prudent financial profile with moderately healthy leverage.

Genting Berhad’s USD notes are issued by its various subsidiaries. It is not an issuer and does not provide parental guarantees for any of the bonds. This means investors must assess the standalone credit profile of each individual issuer.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Genting Berhad is “Stable”. We expect the company’s leverage to continue improving, supported by earnings recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced downturn. Genting Berhad is reportedly among the frontrunners vying for a casino licence in New York (housed under Genting Malaysia), albeit the outcome is still uncertain at this point.

Controversies are “Immaterial” in our view. In 2019, a small group of Greenpeace activists briefly protested against Genting Plantations over forest fires in Indonesia, albeit the company denied the allegations. Some ESG-compliant funds may be prohibited from investing in Genting Berhad and its subsidiaries, due to the nature of its core businesses (casinos and oil palm plantations). That said, the group’s main gaming operations are in established and well-regulated markets (Malaysia, Singapore, the UK and Las Vegas). Overall, the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Tuhu Car (途虎) Pre-IPO: Why Sedan Owners Choose Tuhu

By Ming Lu

  • We contacted drivers here in Shanghai and asked about their experience at Tuhu stores.
  • Franchised stores are well positioned in the aftermarket and Tuhu is the largest store chain among them.
  • However, Tuhu sets high standards for workshops, but average standards for mechanics.

StubWorld: LVS Trading “Cheap” As Macau Recovers

By David Blennerhassett

  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor as Macau’s gross gaming revenue touches a new post-Covid high. 
  • Preceding my comments on LVS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Tea Revenue Up by 60%, 40% Upside, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 23% YoY in 1H23 from 15% YoY in 2H22 and 9% YoY in 1H22.
  • Tea revenue grew by 60% YoY in 1H23 as the company caught the fashion of sugar free.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 41% for yearend 2024.

Instacart IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Instacart is targeting a valuation between US$8.6 billion to US$9.3 billion in its IPO. Instacart’s valuation has declined nearly 77% from its peak levels US$39 billion a few years ago.
  • Established in 2012, Instacart is a leading players in North America of delivering online grocery goods to consumers’ homes.
  • Instacart generated sales of US$2.6 billion (up 39.1% YoY), gross profit of US$1.8 billion (up 49.3% YoY), and operating profit of US$62 million (turned black YoY) in 2022.

Yaizu Suidankagaku (2812) | An Odorous Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Board of YSK has recommended that shareholders accept a TOB for the company’s shares
  • Although a 35% premium to the undisturbed share price, the deal is not particularly generous to long-suffering shareholders
  • Activist investor, Minami Aoyama, has been buying a significant stake in YSK. Will the deal go through?

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Daily Brief Consumer: United Malt Group Ltd, BYD , Tuhu Car, Taste Gourmet, Dollar Tree Inc, Burlington Stores, Ulta Beauty , Gap Inc/The, Brown Forman Corp Class B and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • United Malt: Shareholder Vote On 12th Oct
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 8Sep23) : BYD, ZTE, Zhongji Innolight, Amperex
  • TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case
  • Taste Gourmet: Reaching an Inflection Point on Earnings Solid H1 FY24 Expected
  • Dollar Tree Inc.: Revolutionizing The Retail Landscape With Multi-Price Models! – Major Drivers
  • Burlington Stores: Expanding Its Footprint Through The Acquisition of Former Bed Bath & Beyond Leases! – Major Drivers
  • Ulta Beauty Inc.: The Powerhouses Behind Their Double-Digit Comp Growth! – Major Drivers
  • The Gap Inc.: A Bold Strategy To Strengthen Their Balance Sheet! – Major Drivers
  • Brown-Forman Corporation: The New Distribution Business in Slovakia Could Be A Decent Revenue Contributor? – Major Drivers


United Malt: Shareholder Vote On 12th Oct

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 3 July, United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) and Malteries Soufflet entered into a binding agreement of A$5.00/share, by way of a Scheme. 
  • The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. UMG shareholders vote on the transaction on the 12 October, with implementation on the 15 November.
  • The Offer remains subject to FIRB and other regulatory approvals. Malteries Soufflet and UMG are the second and fourth-largest maltsters in the world.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 8Sep23) : BYD, ZTE, Zhongji Innolight, Amperex

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts. We welcome feedback on how to make it more useful going forward.

TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, is set to open books for its US$300 million IPO.   
  • Among independent aftermarket (IAM) stores in China, Tuhu ranked first in terms of both number of stores as of 31 December 2022 and annual automotive service revenue in 2022.
  • The investment case rests on the return to growth, improving gross margin, a shift to profitability and a return to cash generation.

Taste Gourmet: Reaching an Inflection Point on Earnings Solid H1 FY24 Expected

By Sameer Taneja

  • With 46 restaurants in HK (up 35% YoY) and the end of dining restrictions, we estimate an inflection point in earnings for Q2 FY24 for Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) 
  • We estimate revenues/earnings up 45%/40% YoY for Q2 2024 ( to be reported in November) and that the company declares a semi-annual dividend of around 5.5-6 cents (8% annualized). 
  • With a solid base for H2 2024, the stock trades at 8.5x/5.9x PE FY23/24e and a 10% FY24e dividend yield with 23% of the market cap in cash.

Dollar Tree Inc.: Revolutionizing The Retail Landscape With Multi-Price Models! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar Tree delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • For the quarter, Dollar Tree produced a combined increase in sales of 8.2% to $7.3 billion, 6.9% enterprise comp growth, and operating income of $287.8 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.91.
  • In the Dollar Tree sector, with a slight offset from average ticket, their 7.8% comp was driven by 9.6% increased visitation.

Burlington Stores: Expanding Its Footprint Through The Acquisition of Former Bed Bath & Beyond Leases! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Burlington Stores managed to exceed the revenue expectations and the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 4%, while overall sales increased by 9%.
  • This was caused by a 130 basis point drop in freight costs and a 150 basis point increase in merchandise margin.

Ulta Beauty Inc.: The Powerhouses Behind Their Double-Digit Comp Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ulta Beauty surpassed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • For the quarter, all major categories produced comp growth.
  • The quarter saw double-digit growth in both prestige and mass skin care.

The Gap Inc.: A Bold Strategy To Strengthen Their Balance Sheet! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Gap, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the quarter, with revenues below expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company continued to enhance its cash flows and strengthen its balance sheet by reducing inventory by 29% year over year, generating over $300 million in free cash flow.
  • Second quarter sales were down in the mid- to high single digits, with net sales of $3.5 billion, down 8% from last year.

Brown-Forman Corporation: The New Distribution Business in Slovakia Could Be A Decent Revenue Contributor? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The company reported net sales growth climbed by 3%, with organic net sales growth up by 2%.
  • Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple, and El Jimador all had continued increases in the quarter, which fueled organic net sales growth.
  • Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple increased organic net sales by more than half.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Williams Sonoma, Advance Auto Parts, ZOZO Inc, Nongfu Spring , Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Williams-Sonoma Inc.: 4 Surprising Takeaways From Their Recent Financial Performance – Financial Forecasts
  • Advance Auto Parts: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle
  • Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Within Striking Distance
  • After Selling the Property, There Appears to Be No Set Plan for How the Cash Will Be Used


Williams-Sonoma Inc.: 4 Surprising Takeaways From Their Recent Financial Performance – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Williams-Sonoma delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it managed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • Williams-Sonoma achieved these outcomes despite a more promotional environment and softer industry metrics by focusing on regular price selling, leveraging the company’s market advantages, enhancing customer service, and managing costs.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Advance Auto Parts: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Advance Auto Parts delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • Their net sales increased during the quarter.
  • During Q2, Advance Auto Parts observed increase in DIY omnichannel and DIFM.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.
  • As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK).
  • The Liontown Resources (LTR AU) / Albemarle Corp (ALB US) transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Within Striking Distance

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.
  • We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.
  • A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. 

After Selling the Property, There Appears to Be No Set Plan for How the Cash Will Be Used

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The need to obtain investment capital for future business development or the presence of stakeholders with a strong desire to improve asset efficiency may be the catalyst for selling property.
  • Of course, cash should be used to return to shareholders, but the stock market expects more profit growth, so higher profit margins and ROE are required.
  • The data from Ministry of Finance indicates that cash still hasn’t been spent on investments. Cash appears to be currently being used reluctantly for investments that will generate future profits.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Japan Tobacco, Tuhu Car and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar
  • Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Combustible tobacco is declining globally, but Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is defying the odds by outperforming the industry significantly through capturing market share from competitors.
  • Also in Heated Tobacco, Japan Tobacco is slowly but steadily capturing market share from IQOS and other heated tobacco makers.
  • There will be no price hikes this year, but we think that there’s enough spillover from the price hikes in the past 3-4 years to maintain JT’s OP growth momentum.

Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our earnings assumptions and thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Oriental Watch, Astra International, Tuhu Car, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Luckin Coffee, SJM Holdings, Chewy , Macy’s Inc, Target Corp, Tjx Companies and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Watch: Addressing the Rolex Acquisition of Bucherer
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Crossing EV Boundaries
  • Tuhu Car Pre-IPO Peer Comp – While It Has Been Loss Making, GPM Expansion Has Been the Strongest
  • Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way
  • Luckin’s New Moutai-Laced Lattes Create a Stir in China’s Coffee Wars
  • SJM Holdings Ltd: H1 Results Foretell Recovery Momentum for the Stock Beginning to Build
  • Chewy: CFO Stepped Down, Weak 3Q Guidance, More Selling Pressure Is Likely
  • Macy’s Inc.: The Gap Collaboration For The Launch of Sleepwear and Intimates Collections & Other Drivers
  • Target Corporation: Adaptation in a Digital Retail Landscape! – Major Drivers
  • The TJX Companies Inc.: Can This Retail Dynamo Outperform Its Retail Peers? – Major Drivers


Oriental Watch: Addressing the Rolex Acquisition of Bucherer

By Sameer Taneja

  • Rolex acquisition of Bucherer signals the company’s intention to own retail distribution and gain access to what its competitors are doing, with the battleground currently being Europe.
  • We believe it will take years for Rolex to digest this acquisition before foraying into other markets, but with a similar approach, potentially making Oriental Watch (398 HK) a target.  
  • Trading at 6.9x PE with 50% of the market cap in cash and a ~15% dividend yield, the company presents a great investment opportunity. 

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Crossing EV Boundaries

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) looks set to have another year of positive growth driven by strong performance from its Auto and 2W businesses and steady performance from United Tractors.
  • The company’s move into the EV space has begun with 16 models hybrid or BEV models already launched, with 4W hybrid outperforming ICE given narrowing price differentials. 
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) continues to invest in core growth areas of the Indonesian economy, with a strong sustainability bent. Valuations are attractive versus history on 8.3x FY2024E PER. 

Tuhu Car Pre-IPO Peer Comp – While It Has Been Loss Making, GPM Expansion Has Been the Strongest

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance and PHIP updates in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.
  • There could be one ADD and one DELETE for HSTECH in December 2023 but I would treat them as low-conviction changes.
  • At present, I see one-way flows for the December 2023 rebalance to be around US$250mn but as prices change, our index change and flow expectations will change too.

Luckin’s New Moutai-Laced Lattes Create a Stir in China’s Coffee Wars

By Caixin Global

  • Luckin Coffee is creating a stir with an unusual offering to capture the attention of Chinese coffee drinkers: lattes with a nip of Kweichow Moutai’s baijiu.
  • The coffee chain partnered with China’s luxury liquor maker Kweichow Moutai to launch an alcohol-infused coffee drink, the so-called “sauce-flavored latte,” referring to the popular savory notes of Moutai liquors.
  • The tie-up between Luckin and Moutai, the maker of China’s national liquor baijiu, triggered a buying frenzy. Discussions about whether it is safe to drive after consuming the alcohol-infused drink topped China’s social media Monday with 430 million views.

SJM Holdings Ltd: H1 Results Foretell Recovery Momentum for the Stock Beginning to Build

By Howard J Klein

  • SJM has lagged other sector peers in price recovery since the end of the Beijing zero covid ban policy last Janaury 6th.
  • The company last year underwent a significant reordering of its business model which is not yet reflected in its ongoing momentum towards regaining positive EBITDA.
  • Trading volume indicates ongoing interest but stock in our view has not yet reflected the continuation of positive sales growth leading to EBIDA turning positive in forward quarters.

Chewy: CFO Stepped Down, Weak 3Q Guidance, More Selling Pressure Is Likely

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Chewy (CHWY US) reported a strong quarter but provided weak 3Q revenue guidance, pushing shares down over 10% on heavy volume during regular trading session.
  • Chewy (CHWY US) shares massively underperformed in 2023, with shares down ~34% year-to-date vs a 16% gain on the S&P 500 index.
  • In July, Chewy CFO Mario Marte stepped down after 8 years in the company. He sold ~$10M worth of Chewy shares in 2023.

Macy’s Inc.: The Gap Collaboration For The Launch of Sleepwear and Intimates Collections & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Macy’s delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter, with notable achievements in net sales, gross margin rate, and SG&A rate.
  • These outcomes were primarily driven by better-than-expected sales, gross margin results, and SG&A.
  • Macy’s demonstrated effective inventory management strategies, resulting in reduced inventories compared to previous periods.

Target Corporation: Adaptation in a Digital Retail Landscape! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Target Corporation delivered mixed results in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it managed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • At the beginning of the quarter, Target started seeing softening sales trends.
  • Comp trends softened in May and June and a meaningful recovery was seen in both comps and traffic in July.

The TJX Companies Inc.: Can This Retail Dynamo Outperform Its Retail Peers? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TJX delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Marmaxx delivered high increases in both customer traffic and comp sales.
  • The overall home sales improved significantly and returned to positive sales growth.

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