Energy & Materials Sector

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
• We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We see one M&A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.
• Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.

• The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
• When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
• What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.

• For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
• Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
• Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources, China Oil & Gas, Biocon Biologics
• In the US, new home sales jumped 7.4% m-o-m (1.3% e / 3.1% revised p) to an annualised 724 k units in March, driven by a surge in home sales in the South. The March (final) building permits rose 0.5% to an annualised 1.47 mn units.
• Separately, the S&P manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.7 (49.0 e / 50.2 p), while the services PMI fell to 51.4 (52.6 e / 54.4 p). The composite PMI declined to 51.2 (52.0 e / 53.5 p).

• Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
• Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
• Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

• Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd (ASX:LGM) is a prospect generator and exploration company with a portfolio of projects across NSW.
• Overall, LGM has nine projects whereby four are under joint venture with other major and junior explorers which provide additional funding to increase the level of concurrent exploration activity across its projects.
• Like 2024, 2025 is set to be another productive year for LGM with multiple, funded, high-impact drill programmes aiming to make a significant discovery in addition to progressing development options at Drake.

• GTI Energy Ltd (ASX:GTR) is focused on the development of three uranium projects located across Wyoming and Utah, USA.
• Lo Herma (Wyoming) is the current flagship project for the company.
• The company’s Wyoming projects are amenable to in-situ recovery (ISR) with GTR progressing a scoping study at the Lo Herma project which is evaluating the economic feasibility of a potential ISR mining operation.

• Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) is a junior iron ore producer based in the Midwest region of Western Australia (WA).
• FEX has been producing iron ore from the Iron Ridge project since 2020 with a total of 5.7Mt produced to date.
• Going forward, FEX is planning to expand its production rate from ~1.3Mtpa to 4.0Mtpa by the end of CY25 through the ramp-up of production at the recently restarted Shine Mine and the currently under construction mine at Beebyn-W11.

• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates. 
• Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.

• Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
• Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
• Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

• 85% of Lankan rubber products shipped to US, EU markets  
• Tariffs can diminish 28% of US rubber products export revenue  
• Govt allocates LKR 1500 million for rubber industry in Budget

• With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
• Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
• Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.

• Talos’ current ~$2.5 billion enterprise value (EV) reflects a 23% discount to the ~$3.2 billion PV-10 of company’s year-end 2024 proved developed reserves using flat prices of $65/bbl for oil and $3/MMBtu for natural gas.
• Total proved reserves at year-end were 194 MMBoe (74% oil/81% liquids). Estimated probable reserves at year-end 2024 were 125.3 MMBoe, having a PV-10 on the same flat pricing of ~$2.7 billion.
• On a proved plus probable basis, the discount widens to 58%. Under SEC pricing ($76.32/bbl and $2.13/MMBtu), the discount was 41% for total proved and 66% for proved plus probable.

• OPEC lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.3m bpd from 1.45m bpd, while the IEA and EIA also revised forecasts down to 0.90m bpd and 0.73m bpd, respectively.
• The EIA significantly lowered its 2025-2026 crude oil price outlook, citing the dual impact of Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to boost output.
• U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures are injecting uncertainty into global oil trade and refining margins.

• In today’s edition: • AkzoNobel | no major surprises, yet slightly improving underlying trends • BE Semiconductor Industries | order intake remains depressed • Randstad | modest beat of consensus – valuation at attractive level due to share price decline • Corbion | strongly beating consensus – reiterates FY25 guidance • Corbion | another letter from Inclusive Capital • InPost | signs multi-year contact with Vinted • Just Eat TakeAway.com | reiterates FY25 guidance, expects offer to commence in 2Q25 • PostNL/DHL | DHL deploys first APMs at Praxis DIY stores • Corporate agenda | week 17 – 21

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green, JSW Steel
• US President Donald Trump has told reporters that US tariffs on China will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero. It used to be zero”.
• Meanwhile, Mr Trump stated that he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but would like to see him be “a little more active” in lowering interest rates.

• Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.
• Schlumberger’s OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
• For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.

• YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%).
• This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves – an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production.
• The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG.

• Resource-Backed Growth Story: Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd. owns 857 MT of iron ore reserves (including 700 MT BHQ) with a 50-year lease, providing unmatched raw material security.
• Transformational Expansion + MDO Play: Ongoing capex will ramp mining to 25+ MTPA and add 4.2 MTPA of steel capacity. Acquisition of Thriveni’s MDO business adds high-margin, annuity-style revenue stream.
• Tax-Efficient, Debt-Light Strategy: Supported by Maharashtra’s IPS benefits, Lloyds is executing a capital-intensive buildout while aiming to remain net-debt free and structurally cost-advantaged.

• Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.
• Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
• Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively. 

• Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
• Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
• Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.

• Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
• Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.

• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
• Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.

• China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
• China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
• Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q125 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 8 May, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 60,109oz to 73,655oz, in line with the volume of copper produced according to Vale’s Q125 production report, released on 15 April. We have also assumed no further inventory build in Q1, after a 27,535oz gold equivalent increase in Q424 (against the historical trend). Including an adjustment for prices as well, these changes have resulted in a 17.4% increase to our Q125 adjusted EPS estimate and a 10.7% increase to our FY25 estimate.

• Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) raised around US$514m in its India IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
• Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2024.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• On April 17, 2025, Ring announced that 1Q25 oil production exceeded the high end of guidance and that total production exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
• For 1Q25, the oil production guidance range was 11,700-12,000 Bo/d and the midpoint total production guidance was 18,250.
• Since oil represents more than 95% of total revenue, the oil outperformance has an outsized revenue impact.

• Seasonal rise in US base oils demand likely to be more muted as concern about economic slowdown incentivizes blenders to maintain lower stocks.
• Weak demand and rising surplus supply typically puts more pressure on export prices before domestic prices.
• US base oils domestic prices instead fall while export prices hold steady so far in April 2025.

• Halliburton will report its Q1 earnings on 22/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to weak activity in North America.
• Halliburton’s OI PCR at 0.86 signals neutral sentiment, while its IV percentile at 96% indicates high volatility.
• For the 25/Apr expiry, Halliburton’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 20, 25, and 27, while puts dominate at 19, 19.5, and 21.5, with higher put OI at key levels.

• The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
• We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
• All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

• Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand. 
• Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
• 26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.

• The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
• This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
• The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.

• For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
• For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.

• Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
• Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
• High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.

• WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
• The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
• WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.

• Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par  
•  RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance   
•  Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops

• A double line is drawn under the past, as its wholly owned subsidiary Coro Energy Duyung is being sold.
• It has a holding in the Mako Gas Field in Indonesia and the proposed disposal is to West Natuna Exploration Ltd (WNEL), a subsidiary of Conrad Asia Energy, that already has a 76.5% working interest in Mako.
• Whilst Coro has supported the asset for many years, recent GSA pricing and oil price movements have materially deteriorated the project economics and the Operator has not delivered material progress on key commercial milestones.

• The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
• We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
• There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

• Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
• Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
• Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).

• Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
• TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
• With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

• Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
• With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
• Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

• KRX’s move on SK Enmove this morning ramps up the odds of an SKI rights issue.
• Timing’s again the key — unlike POSCO Future M, this isn’t a clean setup. Word is SK may wait for H2 rate cuts and a more risk-on market backdrop.
• So, doesn’t look near-term — likely post-June once local tape firms up. Watch quirky local hot money flows that front-run moves like this.

• Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.
• Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.
• We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.

• Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
• Halliburton has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
• Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
• The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa. 
• At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap. 

• For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
• Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
• Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Indika Energy
• In the US, advance retail sales rose 1.4% m-o-m (1.4% e / 0.2% p) in March, the highest increase in over two years, driven by consumer front-loading of car purchases and electronics ahead of tariff implementation.
• Retail sales excluding autos edged down to 0.5% (0.4% e / 0.7% revised p), while the retail sales control group (excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials) slowed to 0.4% (0.6% e / 1.3% revised p). Separately, industrial production slid 0.3% (-0.2% e / 0.8% revised p) in March, with capacity utilisation falling to 77.8% (77.9% e / 78.2% p)

• With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
• As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
• There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

• SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
• What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
• This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

• Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
• SLB has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
• Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.

• Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
• Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
• Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

• Okapi Technologies, a residential solar financing platform based in Malaysia, has closed an up to US$2 million debt facility arranged by Aquila, an IoT-powered sustainable finance company with operations across Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
• The funding will accelerate Okapi’s expansion of solar energy adoption for homeowners and small businesses in Malaysia and the wider Southeast Asian region through innovative financial solutions.
• This round comes over a year after Okapi announced its official launch in Malaysia with the closure of a new funding round led by impact investor The Radical Fund.

•  Only 10,000 ha of 3.2 million ha smallholder plantations get STDB  
• KoltiSkills trains around 6,000 smallholders in Indonesia  
•  Olam Agri rolls out SNR in Lampang to empower smallholders

• The global podcast Company reports its YE December 2024 and Q1 Trading update.
• Its revenue increased 13% to $73.4m, with a PBT of $904k against a $16.75m loss for YE December 2023 and the EBITDA is $3.4m, up from a loss of $0.4m.
• Showcase, the scalable, higher gross margin, tech-based, global advertising marketplace grew significantly, with a 56% increase to record revenue of $23.1m.

• This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
• This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
• Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

• China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
• China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
• Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

• The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.
• Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.
• Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

• MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
• Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
• Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

• Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
• Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
• Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.

• Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
• We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
• A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

• Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
• Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.
• Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.
• Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.

• US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
• Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
• Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.

• US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
• Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
• US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

• There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
• Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
• Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

• Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas. 
• The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products. 
• SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.

• We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
• Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
• While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

•  VRG’s Lao division scripts US$14.85 million in profit in 2024  
• VRG’s rubber output in Laos touches 34,592 tons in 2024  
• Prime Minister asks VRG to start tire units in Laos

• Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.
• A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.
• Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.

• SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
• Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
• SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

• President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
• Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
• Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

• Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
• This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
• April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

• WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
• The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.

• For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
• U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.