Energy & Materials Sector

• Kum Yang (001570 KS)‘s designation as an Administrative Issue should result in the deletion of the stock from the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) later this week.
• Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) could be added to the index as an ad hoc replacement. The stock was in line to be added to the index at the June rebalance.
• Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS) ranked higher than Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) at the December rebalance but appears to fail the liquidity screen.

• Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) started down the “good governance path” a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.
• They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and “buybacks conducted in an agile manner.”
• On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.

• On 4 March, Korea Exchange announced that it will designate Kum Yang (001570 KS) as an administration stock, resulting in a deletion from KOSPI 200 index.
• These increased penalty points and fine are mainly from the company inflating the expected performance of a Mongolian mine which the company had plans to acquire shares.
• We continue to remain negative on Kum Yang. As a result of designation as an administration stock and deletion from KOSPI 200, investors will likely push down this stock further.

• WTI futures fell by 0.9% for the week ending 28/Feb, marking its sixth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and demand concerns.
• WTI fell 3.8% in February, its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and bearish economic indicators pressured prices.
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.98 on 28/Feb from 0.95 on 21/Feb. Call OI increased by 7.4% WoW, while put OI rose by 10.5%.

• For the week ending 28/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of milder weather forecasts and expectations of weakening demand.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 1.00 on 28/Feb from 1.04 on 21/Feb. Call OI fell by 9.5% WoW, while put OI decreased by 13.3%.
• Put OI was notable at the 2, 2.5, and 3 strikes, while call OI was concentrated at 4, 5, and 6.

• Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  
• Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  
• North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  

• Gold miners’ revenue grew 4% QoQ in Q1 2025, the highest in 15+ years, driven by rising gold prices and demand.
• Gold markets face volatility with rising COMEX inventories and widening futures-spot spreads, but signs of stabilization are emerging.
• GLD ETF is bearish, breaking key support, while options data show bullish sentiment with strong call interest above $3000.

• Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
• Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
• China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.

• Vaalco has farmed into the CI-705 block offshore Côte d’Ivoire.
• Vaalco will become operator of the block with a 70% WI and a 100% paying interest though a commercial carry arrangement.
• The partners are Ivory Coast Exploration Oil & Gas (ICE) and PETROCI.

• Capitan Silver previously announced the closing of its non-brokered private placement, raising $5.3M through the issuance of 13.25M units.
• Now fully funded, CAPT announced its Phase 1 exploration plans with an initial 10,000m of RC drilling expected to start in early March.
• The program will target previously identified high-grade silver targets at Jesus María and the Gully Fault zone.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.
• Relevant notes – JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
• My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair. 

• On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
• Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share. 
• Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO. 

• Base metals, particularly copper, are sensitive to China specific tariffs, leading to a rise in copper prices in early 2025
• Near term market outlook is cautious due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices potentially pulling back towards $9,000 per ton
• Long term outlook for copper market tightening in 2025 due to slowing mine supply growth and modest deceleration in global demand growth, with potential risks in X Chinese demand.

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• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn’t follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
• Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

• How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.
• From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.
• During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again. 

• U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by one for the week ending 28/Feb, marking the fifth straight weekly gain and bringing the total to 593.
• For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. oil production slightly rose to 13.50 million bpd from 13.49 million bpd last week.
• The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 486, while gas rigs rose by 3 to 102. Rig count in the Permian rose by one to 305. 

• Chinese buying concentrated on warehouse cargoes
• Arbitrage narrows for international cargoes on wintering 
• Gradual return of the tire makers expected 

• Occidental’s Q4 revenue fell 5.7% YoY, missing estimates by 3.1%. It also posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Lower sales and tight margins weighed on performance.
• However, adjusted EPS climbed 8.1% to USD 0.80 per share, beating estimates by 18.1%, while Occidental met its USD 4.5 billion short-term debt reduction goal for 2024.
• Occidental signed divestment deals worth USD 1.2 billion in Q1 2025. Proceeds will cover debt maturities. It raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to USD 0.24 per share.

• DNG reported its 2025 guidance which includes revenue of $345-375M (+27% on realized sales) and net income of $14-17M.
• Dynacor has received EIA approval to begin construction of a 50,000tpd pilot plant in Senegal and plans to be finished construction by Q1/26.
• DNG plans $1B in sales by 2030, representing a ~3x from 2024E sales.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is seeking to raise about ¥460 billion in the upcoming IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The indicative IPO price is ¥862 per share.
• The final IPO pricing will be on 10 March. JX Advanced Metals will be listed on 19 March. Eneos is selling as many as 534.9 million shares in the IPO.
• The company has a strong customer base. It is a key supplier to TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron for sputtering targets and high-purity metals.

• Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) has launched an H-share offering that could raise up to US$554m if the offer size adjustment option and overallocation option are both exercised.
• The price range of HK$13.72-HK$15.83/share is a discount of 18.7-29.5% to the A-shares and between 17-26% of the offering will be allocated to cornerstone investors.
• The small issue size will result in the stock staying out the global indices for the foreseeable future. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in April.

• Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, is now looking to raise up to US$419m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
• It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
• We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

• Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump’s tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  
• China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
• The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China’s fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.

• The Trump administration’s announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.
• China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
• Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio’s Simandou project. 

• It has been reported in the local media that EcoPro Materials (450080 KS) is seeking about 300 billion won in additional capital which represents about 5% of its market cap.
• There could be concerns about dilution associated with this capital raise which could result in share price decline. The company is currently considering on issuing RCPS for this capital raise. 
• There could be additional concerns about potential dilution associated with this capital raise which could result in further share price decline for Ecopro Materials.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
• Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
• Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.

• Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
• Prime Minister’s Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
• As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 

• Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024  
• Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons  
• Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders

• Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
• Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
• In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders’ decisions on the competing takeover offers.

• For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
• U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.

• With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
• Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
• The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

• UltraTech Cement, part of the Aditya Birla Group, is entering the 80,000+ crore wires & cables market with INR 1,800 crore investment, targeting a December 2026 plant launch in Gujarat.
• The sector is highly fragmented, with no dominant player exceeding 20% market share, creating an opportunity for UltraTech to disrupt with its financial strength, backward integration, and superior product quality.
• This move positions UltraTech as a diversified building materials leader, leveraging synergies with Hindalco to offer cost-efficient, high-quality electrical solutions, reshaping competition in the industry.

• Lynas, a six and a half billion dollar mining company, faced challenges in their half yearly results with higher unit costs and a significant decrease in cash position.
• The company’s cash reserves have diminished by over $200 million, raising concerns about the sustainability of their operations in the current rare earths price environment.
• Expansion projects in Mount Weld and Kalgoorlie are ongoing, with potential impacts on future financial performance and the need for additional financing options.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold company aiming to take advantage of higher gold prices to generate cash flow from two key projects.
• AWJ has been mining and tolling ore from the Jeffreys Find Project since late 2023 and has generated ~$105m in revenue from the production and sale of 27.6koz of gold.
• To date, AWJ has received ~$12.9m in net proceeds from the project with further distributions to be received in 2H25.

• Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration and leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside during a gold price market that reached new all-time highs.
• The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2025.
• Since our last update, the Company has reported the highest grades from Surebet yet.

• Daido Steel’s cumulative FY24 Q1~Q3 earnings landed in line with the firm’s revised forecast, with the 9-month OP [IFRS basis] coming in at ¥34,070mil (-10.6% YoY) on sales of ¥433,961mil (-1.1% YoY).
• The decline in OP is primarily due to tough comps – in FY23 the firm reported ¥7,200mil from real estate sales gains.
• Although the 9-month OP has achieved 85% of the full-year guidance, Daido Steel did not change the full-year forecast due to some cost items such as fixed asset tax to be incurred in Q4.

• In this edition: • Aalberts | takes large restructuring charge to improve profitability • AMG Critical Materials | increases its FY25 adjusted outlook to more than USD 150m • Corbion | expects FY25 organic EBITDA growth of more than 25% • Van Lanschot Kempen | solid FY24; EUR 1.40/share excess cash return on top of dividend

• Ring is adding production and proved reserves in its core Central Basin Platform (CBP) through the $100-million asset acquisition of acreage offsetting its Shafter Lake operations in Andrews County, Texas from Lime Rock Resources IV, LP.
• The assets consist of ~17,700 net acres (100% HBP) that are contiguous to Ring’s existing acreage. 3Q24 production averaged 2,300 BOE/d (>80% oil) from ~101 gross wells.
• Management estimates that the acreage could support more than 40 gross drilling locations that are expected to compete for capital in the 2025 plan.

• Barton Gold Holdings Limited (ASX:BGD) is a junior gold company that is focused on progressing the development of the Tunkillia project after completing a scoping study in July 24.
• The study highlighted the potential for an economic mining operation which would produce 833koz of gold and 1,993koz of silver over ~six years.
• In addition to continuing development work, BGD continues to conduct exploration at Tunkillia and its Tarcoola project.

• The FPSO Baobab Ivoirien MV10 at the Baobab oil field in Côte d’Ivoire ceased production on January 31, 2025, and the last lifting from the vessel was scheduled for around February 6, 2025.
• The vessel is scheduled to be towed to shipyards in Dubai for a planned refurbishment on March 24, 2025.
• Baobab production is expected to resume in 2026 when the refurbished FPSO is returned to the field. 

• Equinox and Calibre announced a deal that was met with mixed reactions, with shareholders on both sides expressing dissatisfaction.
• The deal, which includes Equinox acquiring Calibre in an all-script deal, has led to a 7% drop in Calibre’s share price.
• The deal will result in a combined group with nine producing mines and a mine under construction, with a pro forma ownership of 65% Equinox and 35% Calibre.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.
• Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025.

• Rubber latex exports value goes up to US$666.25 million in 2024  
• Average yearly rubber price marks a 47% YoY surge to US$1,971/mt  
• Domestic tire firms consume 58,000 tons of rubber in 2024

• Saudi Aramco’s Q4 revenue is expected to fall 2.6% QoQ but rise by 10.6% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 7.5% QoQ and 11.9% YoY.
• With OPEC likely extending supply cuts past April 2025, Saudi Aramco has little room to raise output, leaving growth largely dependent on oil prices.
• Aramco acquired a 25% stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, expanding its retail presence, and partnered with Linde and Schlumberger to develop a major CCS hub.

• What you need to know: • ADF Group announced that it has signed $120M in new contracts across Quebec and the U.S., resulting in the pro-forma backlog reaching $450M.
• • Despite the concerns about tariffs, management was able to execute on its plan to sign new contracts, setting up the Company for a strong 2025.
• • Since announcing its NCIB, ADF has repurchased 721K shares, representing 2.4% of its shares outstanding.

• The Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create a global leader in energy services with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA by leveraging complementary strengths.
• Subsea 7 shareholders benefit from a €450 million extraordinary dividend and an exchange ratio of 6.688 Saipem shares per share, leading to a premium relative to Saipem’s valuation.
• Market skepticism persists, reflected in Saipem’s declining share price, suggesting concerns over integration risks, regulatory challenges, and relative valuation imbalances in the merger structure.

• What you need to know: • Amerigo reported Q4 & 2025 financial results, generating revenue of $50.8M (+12% YoY) vs. our expectation of $53.2M, driven by the lower copper price.
• EBITDA was $19.5M vs. $17.3M expected while OCF was $13.8M vs. $13.5M expected.
• • Annual results were also very strong, with revenue increasing 22% and adjusted EBITDA increasing 99%; exceeding annual guidance.

• • Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.
• As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.
• • Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.

• • YE24 2P reserves excluding Argentina were estimated at 87.6 mmboe.
• After deducting 12.4 mmboe of production in 2024, the 2P reserves have reduced by 15.1 mmboe.
• • As anticipated, the primary driver of the reserves reduction is associated with Colombia, with YE24 2P reserves at 84.8 mmboe, down from 106.4 mmboe at YE23.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
• We previously discussed the IPO in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case. 
• In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.

• Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE March 2025 rebalance. AMS is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with EXX falling out.
• No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.
• The JSE rebalance is scheduled to take place in the closing auction on Thursday the 20th of March (due to the public holiday on Friday).

• Tocvan reported the first RC drill result from the 100% controlled Expansion Area just to the north of the Main Zone.
• A total of 776.2m of drilling was reported across 4 drill holes.
• The highlight intercept was a scout hole reporting 3.1 g/t Au over 19.8m, including 19.4 g/t Au over 3.1m.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent,  ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• WTI futures fell by 0.5% for the week ending 21/Feb, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to bearish economic data and rising crude inventories.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio surged to 1.62 on 21/Feb (Fri) from 0.94 on 14/Feb, as call volume rose by 15.9% WoW while put volume jumped by 100%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 21/Feb compared to 0.96 on 14/Feb. Call OI increased by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 6.1%.

• For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 13.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 0.72 on 21/Feb from 0.66 on 14/Feb as call volumes increased by 81.4% WoW, while put volumes surged by 98%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 1.04 on 21/Feb from 0.98 on 14/Feb. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 13.3%.

• FY24 production, YE24 cash and debt had been reported previously.
• FY25 production is expected to be 11-13 mbbl/d with only US$35 mm capex.
• We have trimmed our production forecast from 13.1 mbbl/d to 12.5 mbbl/d and our capex estimates from US$40 mm to US$35 mm.

• The Mopane-3X exploration well has encountered columns of light oil and gas-condensates across the AVO-10 interval, as well as light oil columns at AVO-13 and at a deeper sand.
• The sandstone reservoirs are of excellent quality, with high permeability and porosity, and higher-than-estimated pressure.
• The oil has low viscosity, with minimal CO2 and H2S content.

• The EI-1 well at the Irai gas field in Brazil has been tested at a rate of 120 boe/d (~0.7 mmcf/d). The well had been shut-in since 2022.
• This test rate exceeds our forecast of ~0.5 mmcf/d for the first quarter of production, achieved within three months from signing the agreement with Irai’s owner. 
• Once onstream, production from the EI-1 well will boost production from the existing EI-3 well, which we estimate at ~0.6-0.7 mmcf/d. 

• JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
• Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
• The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.

• Indorama Ventures (IVL TB) is acquiring a 24.9% stake in EPL Ltd (fka Essel Propack) (EPLL IN) from Blackstone at Rs 240, marking a major entry into India’s packaging market.
• This deal strengthens EPL’s growth and sustainability, unlocking cross-border synergies and driving competitiveness in the global specialty packaging sector.
• It redefines investment dynamics in Indian packaging sector, emphasizing sustainable growth and long-term value creation, challenging traditional global investment paradigms.

• Duck projects and operations, specializing in large-scale builds
• Jeff Quartermain leads Perseus Mining, discussing Predictive stake and valuation
• Emphasis on creating value and diversification in mining investments

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• Apollo posts better profits than leader MRF in Q3 FY 2025
• JK Tyres faces the worst fall of 75% in net profit 
• Raw material prices look flattish in Q4 and demand robust\

• U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by four for the week ending 21/Feb, marking the fourth straight weekly gain and bringing the total to 592—the highest since June.
• For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. oil production held steady at 13.49 million bpd, showing little change from the previous week.
• The number of U.S. oil rigs rose by 7 to 488, while gas rigs fell by 2 to 99. The rig count in the Permian basin remained unchanged at 304.  

• US-Dollar Reversal Incoming? The signs become more that the USD is topping out. This is the result of our latest currency-assessment.
• Particular interesting could be setups in AUDUSD as well as CADUSD – two currency pairs that have been hit the hardest by the strong USD-cycle over the last months.
• Both pairs trade at multi-year support and are heavily oversold across all metrics.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

• What you need to know: • Omai announced assay results from its first drill hole at the Gilt Creek deposit since 2007.
• • The hole intersected a staggering 1.0 g/t Au over 774m.
• • An updated mineral resource is planned to be released in Q2/25 with an updated PEA targeted to be announced in Q3/25.

• What you need to know: • EDG re-assayed a total of 199 gold assay composites to include antimony.
• Antimony intercepts were reported up to 19.20% Sb. • Antimony prices have been surging, up over 250% in 2024 and recently, domestic supply concerns have arisen amongst China banning exports.
• • The 199 re-calculated assays across 108 DDH, 84 RC, and 24 roadcut channel samples resulted in a composite average sampled length of 10.1m and a weighted average grade of 4.55 g/t Au and 0.20% Sb, boosting the gold equivalent grade by ~20% to 4.97 g/t AuEq. This morning, Endurance Gold Corp. (EDG:TSXV) announced antimony results from the Company’s 100%-owned Reliance Gold Project in B.C. Since 2020, EDG has completed 108 diamond drill holes, 84 RC holes, and 24 roadcut channel samples resulting in the collection of 10,040 samples.

• Iron ore futures rose USD 1.30/ton last week, closing at USD 107.25/ton, driven by China’s steel demand recovery and tighter supply from Australian cyclone disruptions.
• Technical indicators show mixed signals, with prices above the 100-day & 200-day DMAs, but MACD weakening and RSI forming a death cross, suggesting potential bearishness ahead.
• Financial Institutions and Managed Money increased net long positions, while Physicals participants expanded net shorts, reflecting diverging market expectations amid China’s policy-driven demand outlook.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Mixue Group (MIX HK) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), China National Building Material (3323 HK), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Mixue Group (MIX HK) and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) might go live in the coming week, with JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) following after.
• On the placements front, there were a few mega deals this week.

• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) announced disappointing results, with revenues/profits down 16%/53% YoY, disappointing consensus slightly by 4-5%. 
• Capex accelerated to 3.5-3.8 bn USD annually, vs the initial 3.2-3.5 USD. The company reduced its decarbonization capex to 400-500 mn USD from the initial >700 mn USD. 
• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  dividend payout ratio has reverted to its base level of 65%, yielding a modest 5.3% based on H1FY25’s 50-cent distribution.

• Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.
• Antofagasta’s 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. 
• Antofagasta’s valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.