Energy & Materials Sector

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (24 October to 7 November 2025).
• Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung C&T, KT&G, LG CNS, Samchully, Hyundai Elevator, Korea Zinc, LG Chem (Pref), SK Inc, and LS Corp. 
• Rechargeable battery was the best performing sector in KOSPI in the past two weeks including L&F (+87.1%) Posco Future M (+65.4%) CosmoAM&T (+51.9%) and EcoPro Materials (+46.8%).

• Focused Permian Operator Delivering Strong Growth: Riley Exploration Permian is an independent oil and gas company with a concentrated acreage position in the Permian Basin, primarily in Yoakum County, Texas, and Eddy County, New Mexico. The company has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory, with significant year-over-year increases in revenue, net income, and free cash flow, driven by its horizontal drilling programs in conventional formations.
• Commitment to Shareholder Returns: REPX has established a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders, evidenced by a consistent and growing dividend. The company’s dividend yield is a key feature of its investment thesis, supported by substantial free cash flow generation.
• Exposure to Commodity Cycles and Operational Risks: As a pure-play exploration and production (E&P) company, REPX’s financial performance is inherently tied to volatile oil and natural gas prices. While the company utilizes a disciplined hedging strategy to mitigate some downside risk, its profitability remains sensitive to market fluctuations.

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• Palliser discloxes stake in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. 
• The family  increased their bid for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.
• First Pacific Co (142 HK) appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.

• Vitesse Energy operates a unique non-operated model, acquiring minority stakes in oil and gas wells primarily in the Bakken Shale, which minimizes operational risk and capital intensity while leveraging the expertise of its operating partners.
• The company is highly focused on shareholder returns, evidenced by a strong dividend yield. Its financial strategy includes disciplined hedging to protect cash flows and fund its dividend, even amidst commodity price volatility.
• Future growth is tied to a disciplined acquisition strategy and the development of its extensive drilling inventory. However, the company faces risks from maturing assets in the Bakken, reliance on third-party operators, and inherent commodity price fluctuations.

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• PHX Minerals operates as a natural gas and oil mineral company, focusing on the acquisition and management of mineral and royalty interests, which generates revenue without the operational risks and costs of drilling.
• The company’s financial performance is intrinsically linked to volatile commodity prices, leading to significant fluctuations in revenue and net income, yet it has consistently generated strong operating and free cash flow.
• On June 23, 2025, PHX Minerals was acquired by WhiteHawk Income Corporation and became a wholly-owned subsidiary, resulting in its delisting from the New York Stock Exchange and a complete change in executive leadership.

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• Strategic Position as a US-Based Producer: United States Antimony (UAMY) is uniquely positioned as the only significant producer of antimony products in the US, a mineral deemed critical for national security and various industrial applications. This status is amplified by escalating geopolitical tensions and recent export restrictions from China, the world’s dominant supplier, creating a significant supply chain vulnerability for the US that UAMY is poised to address.
• Volatile Financials with Recent Improvement: The company has a history of revenue volatility and net losses, reflecting the challenging nature of commodity markets. However, financial performance has shown marked improvement in the latest reported quarters of 2025, with significant revenue growth and a return to profitability, signaling a potential operational turnaround.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Investment Profile: The investment case for UAMY is tied to the execution of its vertical integration strategy, fluctuating antimony prices, and its ability to secure stable ore supplies. Recent surges in antimony prices, driven by global supply shortages and rising demand from the solar and defense sectors, present a strong tailwind, but the company’s historical performance underscores the inherent operational and market risks.

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• Large, Modern, and Diversified Fleet: International Seaways (INSW) is one of the world’s largest tanker companies, operating a diversified fleet of approximately 77 vessels that transport crude oil and petroleum products. This scale and diversity across crude and product segments allow it to adapt to changing market dynamics and serve a broad range of customers, including major oil companies and traders.
• Favorable Market Dynamics: The tanker market is benefiting from favorable supply and demand fundamentals. An aging global fleet, limited new vessel orders, and longer voyage distances due to geopolitical shifts are constraining vessel supply. Concurrently, global oil demand remains robust, supporting strong charter rates and profitability for established operators like INSW.
• Strong Shareholder Returns and Financial Health: The company has demonstrated a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders through substantial dividends and share buybacks, supported by strong cash flow generation. A solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio provides financial flexibility to navigate market cycles and pursue strategic growth opportunities.

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• Profire Energy is a specialized technology provider for the oil and gas industry, focusing on burner management systems (BMS) that enhance safety and efficiency. Its niche focus and established reputation provide a defensible market position.
• The company has demonstrated strong recent financial performance, with significant year-over-year growth in revenue and a substantial increase in net income, driven by robust demand in the North American energy sector.
• A key event is the pending acquisition by CECO Environmental, which is expected to provide Profire with greater scale, international market access, and potential cost synergies, fundamentally altering its standalone growth trajectory.

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• NOV is a critical supplier to the global energy industry, with a comprehensive product portfolio and extensive aftermarket services that provide a resilient, recurring revenue stream.
• The company is poised to benefit from the ongoing multi-year upcycle in offshore and international energy development, evidenced by a strong project backlog and a favorable book-to-bill ratio in recent periods.
• While navigating the inherent cyclicality of the oil and gas market and near-term headwinds like supply chain delays and inflationary pressures, NOV’s strong free cash flow generation supports shareholder returns and strategic investments in energy transition technologies.

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• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We now expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A and special situation events likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• The third-quarter earnings release for EQT Corporation highlights both operational advancements and strategic decisions that continue to shape its financial performance.
• The company reported a robust $484 million in free cash flow, despite facing $21 million in one-time costs associated with the Olympus transaction.
• Over the past four quarters, EQT has generated over $2.3 billion in free cash flow at an average natural gas price of $3.25 per million Btu.

• Halliburton’s strong Q3 earnings and strategic entry into the data-centre power market have fueled a sharp rally, underscoring investor confidence in its evolving growth strategy.
• Halliburton’s partnership with VoltaGrid marks a strategic shift away from reliance on oil and gas and positions the company to tap into the rapidly expanding data-centre segment. 
• Halliburton’s strong performance sets a positive tone for upcoming oil and gas earnings, signalling resilient drilling activity, steady investment discipline, and higher margins and price realisations.

• Crude oil futures were sharply higher Thursday after the US sanctioned Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, in a renewed bid to starve Moscow of revenues to fund its war with Ukraine.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.89/b (2053 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $62.59/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.67/b against a previous close of $58.50/b.
• The announcement by the US Treasury was seen as the most decisive action yet during President Trump’s administration, with Lukoil and Rosneft directly controlling more than half of Moscow’s exports.

• In a pivotal year for IAMGOLD Corporation, the mid-tier Canadian gold miner is aggressively pivoting from a successful ramp-up of its flagship Côté Gold project toward strategic expansion opportunities.
• Fresh off achieving nameplate production at Côté well ahead of schedule and guiding toward full-year output of up to 820,000 ounces, IAMGOLD is now reportedly eyeing two key assets: Northern Superior Resources and Mines d’Or Orbec.
• These moves, if pursued, would be an emphatic signal of the company’s ambition to consolidate its position as a leading Canadian gold producer.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• A correction has finally started in the precious metals space
• What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term

• Leading Market Position with a Modern Fleet: Scorpio Tankers operates one of the world’s largest and youngest fleets of product tankers, providing a distinct competitive advantage in fuel efficiency and operational performance.
• Significant Operating Leverage in a Cyclical Market: The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to fluctuations in charter rates. Favorable market dynamics have driven substantial free cash flow generation, enabling significant debt reduction and increased shareholder returns.
• Balanced Outlook with Near-Term Tailwinds and Long-Term Headwinds: While the current market is supported by favorable supply/demand fundamentals, the outlook is tempered by a growing order book, potential shifts in trade routes, and a long-term decline in oil product demand.

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• July to August export volume increases but returns drop  
• Chinese exports pick up as it strikes deal with the US  
• Malaysia, Japan too cash in on lowering of US tariffs  

• Shin Etsu Chemical is a global leader in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and semiconductor silicon wafers, granting it significant market influence and economies ofscale.
• The company is facing near-term headwinds, evidenced by disappointing FY26 guidance which forecasts a 14.4% decline in operating income, leading to recent stock price underperformance.
• Despite the cyclical downturn, Shin Etsu maintains a robust financial position, characterized by a strong balance sheet and significant cash flow, enabling substantial shareholder returns through buybacks.

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• Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
• Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.   
• Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.

• 9M 2025 unaudited results (17 Oct): 1.03 Moz gold, US$905 m profit, 26% margin; operational ramp intact despite AISC at US$1,574/oz.
• Strong listing: IPO HK$71.6 → current HK$131.3 (+83%), backed by US$1.6 bn cornerstones (GIC, BlackRock etc.).
• Valuation & risk: Trades ~8.5× EV/EBITDA; fair value HK$115–145/sh; key risks — execution, Kazakhstan policy, Colombia security.

• Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.
• These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.
• KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.

• Crude oil futures were trending higher Wednesday after markets finally found some support, coming after the heavy losses so far in October that had seen benchmarks challenge post-Covid lows.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.12/b (2034 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $61.32/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b against a previous close of $57.24/b.
• Prices rebounded on reports that talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had been put on hold, increasing the threat of sanctions on Russia and broader supply disruptions from attacks on infrastructure.

• Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration, as well as leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside, during a gold price market that has reached new all-time highs.
• The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2026.
• Since our last update, the Company completed more than 64,000 m of drilling providing infill, depth, and lateral testing of the Surebet prospect.

• In a Q3 update, Hunting has narrowed FY25 EBITDA guidance towards the lower end of the existing U$135m-145m range, noting that this remains slightly above our existing FY25 estimate.
• This broadly-based group has performed substantially in line with management expectations although EMEA re-structuring has perhaps been a modest drag.
• Underlying cash flow/year-end net cash looks to be slightly better than we anticipated.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has released its September 2025 quarterly report which provides a progress update on mining, exploration and development activities.
• Revenue of $35.8m was generated from gold sales at Boorara with another $3.64m received as a distribution from the Phillips Find JV.

• Chemcon holds a dominant market position in its niche specialty chemical products, being the sole manufacturer of HMDS and the largest manufacturer of CMIC in India. This provides a significant competitive advantage.
• The company is demonstrating a strong financial recovery, with improving margins and a significant turnaround in operating and free cash flow in the latest fiscal year, following a period of decline. This is supported by high resilience and market momentum scores.
• Despite recent recovery, Chemcon faces challenges from a poor long-term growth track record, with negative 3-year compound annual growth rates in revenue, net income, and EPS. The suspension of dividends for the past two years also signals underlying business pressure.

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• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case?
• • BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new EUR 60m share buyback program • Heineken | presents new medium term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • RELX Group | 9M25 trading update shows no surprises (as it should be) • Aalberts | foresees FY25 EBITA-margin of 13%, 50bps below market consensus • Kendrion | completes sale of its China business

• Condor’s inaugural well in Uzbekistan has intersected 28.5 meters of net gas pay within the productive carbonate reservoir; which in line with expectations.
• The company now plans to drill a 1,000-meter horizontal section through this interval, with results anticipated in November.
• IP rates are estimated between 13–20 mmcf/d, representing a potentially significant uplift in output.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
• There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

• Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem.  According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
• Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks. 
• Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.

• China’s aggressive crude stockpiling through 2025 has quietly reduced global supply, cushioning oil prices against a surplus-driven downturn amid OPEC+ supply hikes.
• By absorbing excess barrels when prices fall and easing purchases when they rise, China’s flexible buying strategy has emerged as a stabilising force in global oil markets.
• With inventories estimated between 1.4 and 2 billion barrels, China’s future buying pace will hinge on price trends, geopolitical pressures, and internal reserve targets.

• Crude oil futures initially struggled Tuesday as global trade tensions and supply glut fears continued to drag on prices before a late-day rebound lifted benchmarks into positive territory on the day.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.37/b (2010 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $61.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.32/b against a previous close of $57.02/b.
• Oil markets continued to face growing headwinds, including the latest round of anti-trade measures between Washington and Beijing, putting global economic growth at risk.

• Vietnam exports 1.12 million tons of rubber in Jan–Aug  
• Exports to China up 5.9% in volume; value surges 22%  
• Typhoon Kajiki causes brief disruptions, but exports stay firm  

• Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.
• This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.
• For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.

• Among Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks, 22 have a combined ADT of S$42.9 million and market cap of S$8.15 billion.
• Industrials, Technology, and Energy sectors make up nearly 80% of these stocks, reflecting global trends in infrastructure, AI, and renewables.
• The 22 stocks recorded a net institutional inflow of S$132.35 million in 2025, led by CSE Global.

• Following our insight, “Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton,” copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
• We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market’s supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
• Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 

• Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
• Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula.
• This led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.

• US base oils prices rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for Group II light-grade export prices.
• Firmer margins point to steady-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals at a time of year when they typically start to weaken.
• Firmer margins incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
• This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
• We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
• This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
• The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
• Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU). 

• Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
• We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
• Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.

• Crude oil futures were again under pressure Friday after the latest selloff in the previous sessions sent prices tumbling to fresh five-month lows, coming amid proposed ceasefire talks in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $61.32/b (2055 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $61.06/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI  was at  $57.22/b  against a previous close of $57.46/b.
• Prices had found some support in the previous session after US President Donald Trump said he had received a pledge from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to halt imports of Russian crude oil.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Key points (machine generated)

• Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) operates a comprehensive network for transporting and processing natural gas liquids, crude oil, and petrochemicals as a master limited partnership.
• EPD’s competitive edge comes from its vertically integrated system, enhancing market access and reliability for major industry customers, particularly in Texas and along the Houston Ship Channel.
• With a 7.0% yield and strong governance, EPD is well-positioned to benefit from U.S. petrochemical growth and maintains a stable distribution supported by robust cash flow.

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• • Drilling operations have commenced at the TGT-H1 infill well in Vietnam, with results expected within 28 days.
• This well is anticipated to enhance production ahead of year-end 2025.
• • This marks the beginning of a six-well drilling campaign across the TGT and CNV fields, utilizing two rigs operating in parallel.

• Triton production has ramped to over 25,000 boed net to Serica.
• This elevated level of output could be sustained until the commencement of the Bittern pipework in November.
• The pace of ramp-up has exceeded forecasts.

• SK Group plans to restructure its renewable energy businesses that could result in asset sales of more than 1 trillion won. 
• SK Group is taking on a major restructuring of its renewable energy businesses, including  including fuel cells, energy storage systems (ESS), and solar/wind power generation facilities. 
• A consensus has been forming in the local media regarding Chairman Chey’s expected divorce payment to his wife Roh So-young to be about 400 billion won to 700 billion won.

• Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.
• Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.
• However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.

• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) at 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares.
• The offer is unattractive as the current implied offer value is 20% below the last close price and undervalues the core Hillgrove Mine based on the DFS’s NPV analysis.
• USAC’s share price meteoric rise YTD amplifies the risk of the all-scrip offer. The Board should push for better terms or outright reject the NBIO. 

• Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down – as panic selling hit the complex.
• The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.
• In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Commercial Metals Company is expanding beyond rebar and into concrete.
• In a pivotal move announced on October 16, 2025, CMC revealed a definitive agreement to acquire Foley Products, a leading supplier of precast concrete infrastructure solutions in the Southeastern U.S., for $1.84 billion in cash.
• The acquisition, along with the earlier announced acquisition of CP&P, marks the company’s formal entry into the precast concrete space and positions it to become the third-largest precast platform in the United States.

• Commercial Metals Company is expanding beyond rebar and into concrete.
• In a pivotal move announced on October 16, 2025, CMC revealed a definitive agreement to acquire Foley Products, a leading supplier of precast concrete infrastructure solutions in the Southeastern U.S., for $1.84 billion in cash.
• The acquisition, along with the earlier announced acquisition of CP&P, marks the company’s formal entry into the precast concrete space and positions it to become the third-largest precast platform in the United States.

• DuPont de Nemours has officially approved the spin-off of its electronics business into a new publicly traded entity, Qnity Electronics.
• This strategic separation, effective November 1, 2025, marks a major milestone in DuPont’s multi-year transformation focused on streamlining its portfolio around core industrial and specialty materials.
• The move comes as Qnity positions itself as a pure-play technology solutions provider in the semiconductor and electronics value chain, targeting booming AI and advanced computing markets.

Key points (machine generated)

• Axalta’s stock has dropped 28% despite strong growth from a new management team in the coatings industry.
• Concerns about volume weakness in the key refinish business may be cyclical rather than secular, with potential improvement expected by late 2025.
• With a 25% market share in refinish coatings and high barriers to entry, Axalta could see its stock rise to $41 if it reverts to historical valuation multiples.

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• Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.
• Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.
• Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I flagged the possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects, as a means towards securing a supply of critical minerals. 
• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), an explorer/evaluator/developer of gold and antimony, has now announced a NBIO from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) @ A$1.40/share, a 87.67% premium to undisturbed.
• USAC has also declared a 10% holding.  An independent board committee is assessing the approach. Due diligence has not yet been granted. That should be forthcoming.

• Despite underlying bearish fundamentals, crude oil prices are currently finding a floor due to persistent geopolitical risks, creating a unique, range-bound market environment.
• We suggest a strategic approach to navigate this market, focusing on capitalizing on premium capture rather than new strong directional risks amidst conflicting market forces.
• While diplomatic efforts offer potential for de-escalation, the immediate outlook points to stabilized volatility, making specific non-directional strategies particularly attractive.

• Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.
• Miss risk: F&I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.
• Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
• The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
• Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.

• The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite
• Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review 
• We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates 

• As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
• Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
• The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.

• Global oil demand growth remains Asia-led. However, surging non-OPEC supply and swelling inventories threaten price stability, even as China’s stockpiling and resilient consumption cushion downside pressure.
• EIA, OPEC, and IEA see diverging oil market paths, with non-OECD demand strong but excess supply, high inventories, and soft gas prices signalling a market leaning toward surplus.
• While Asia powers demand growth, mounting supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, and elevated inventories weigh on prices, keeping crude markets stable yet tilted bearish into 2026.

• Crude oil futures were lower Thursday as a sharp retreat in US crude runs unwound earlier gains stemming from US President Donald Trump’s claims he had persuaded India’s Prime Minister to halt purchases of Russian crude.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.18/b (2013 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $61.91/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.60/b against a previous close of $58.27/b.
• Trump said late Wednesday that Indian PM Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, while the President said he would seek a similar commitment from China.

• The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
• Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
• EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.

• Iron ore futures recorded a weekly loss as renewed trade tensions and weak mill margins overshadowed a brief post-holiday demand recovery.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions, reflecting continued confidence in the bullish outlook.
• Demand for higher-grade ore remains subdued as weak mill margins persist, keeping the 65%-62% spread under sustained downward pressure in the near term.

• What you need to know: • Magna Terra is exploring two highly prospective projects in eastern Canada, the Humber Copper-Cobalt project in Newfoundland and the Rocky Brook Gold-Copper project in New Brunswick.
• • The Company is supported by a successful project generation business model, which has provided over $5.8M since 2019, with a substantial $7.1M expected by 2029.
• • With a market cap of just ~$11M and significant cash inflows over the next four years, MTT is largely undervalued in our view.

• Monumental Energy will fund New Zealand Energy’s (NZE) share of costs for the workover of four wells—Waihapa-H1, Ngaere-1, Ngaere-2, and Ngaere-3.
• In return, Monumental will earn a 25% royalty on NZE’s production share, post full recovery of its capital investment, which will be repaid from 75% of NZE’s net revenue interest.
• The total investment is modest, at

• Friday Takeaway—delving a little deeper into UK small caps Friday Takeaway from UK Small Caps This will delve a little deeper on individual companies and focus on non-house stocks under £200m market capitalisation to raise awareness 10th October 2025 Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from Alpha Terminal from the current price on the day of publication.
• Top three shareholders are taken from the websites of the companies that we are writing about, unless there is a more up to date TR-1 notification RNS announcement.
• Positive news seems to have had limited impact AEO Surprise Party POLX Deep Breath XSG Paid Laundering

• Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
• Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
• Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.

• Sunshield Chemicals is expanding its capacity to capitalise on its unique position as the sole Indian manufacturer of key niche chemicals like THEIC and a rare global producer of HQEE.
• The capex and product focus underscore a strategic shift towards higher-margin, low-competition specialty segments, which is vital for sustained earnings growth and margin protection against raw material volatility.
• A look at the company’s product portfolio and execution on capacity expansion reveals a potentially de-risked growth trajectory, meriting attention from investors seeking exposure to high-entry-barrier specialty chemical plays.

• We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale.
• This is primarily driven by the company’s strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group’s main oil refining vehicle.
• TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent.

• India’s rubber output in April–July up 4.4% year-on-year.  
• Imports fall 7.4% as stocks deplete by 79,000 tons in 4 months  
• Domestic auto sector weakness tempers consumption

• APM reported its Q3 production results, delivering 25.6Koz AuEq (+6% QoQ), with San Bartolome outperforming estimates while Golden Queen faced operational challenges.
• With gold and silver prices surging, APM is well-positioned for strong H2 cash flow despite tracking toward the lower end of annual guidance, enabling flexibility for M&A, dividends, or buybacks.
• We are increasing our commodity price assumptions and rolling over our valuation year to 2026, resulting in an increased target price.

• Sintana is acquiring Challenger Energy in an all-share transaction under which Challenger shareholders will receive 0.4705 new Sintana shares for each Challenger share held.
• Challenger shareholders will hold ~25% of the combined entity on completion.
• Challenger holds interests in two exploration licences, offshore Uruguay.

• Copper Fox announced further updates on recent activities at the Schaft Creek copper-gold-molybdenum-silver project in BC.
• Five diamond drill holes were completed in the Liard zone, four of which intersected variable intervals of copper mineralization.
• Other activities including field work and geophysical surveys were completed throughout the season.

• Crude oil futures were slightly lower in late-day Wednesday trading after benchmarks settled at fresh five-month lows in the previous session, amid pressures from a growing oil surplus and global trade jitters.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.21/b (2012 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $62.39/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.55/b against a previous close of $58.70/b.
• Prices plummeted on Tuesday, wiping out early week gains, after the IEA trimmed its global oil demand growth forecast while upping its supply projection, in turn pushing markets into a deeper surplus this year and next.