Energy & Materials Sector

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
• 87% of the reference period for the December 2025 rebal is complete. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs. Obvious ADD vs Downweight trades have not worked recently.
• Of the “1.5 pairs” I liked last time which worked fundamentally, both are down hard. Trades here are rotated. 

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
• Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
• For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.

• Step-up confirmed, lag observed. Legal certainty of a 25bp step-up preceded market recognition by 3 business days, creating a clean pricing-latency window in an Asian SLB.
• Likely cause, vendor latency. Manual data vendor updates for sukuk profit-rate and SLB step-up fields likely delayed screens, as previously referenced.
• Valuation uplift, observed move. At a 5% discount rate, the 25bp step-up was worth about 36bps, the market acted slowly and repriced higher with a 49bp reaction.

• Fermi (FRMI US) went public on 1 October with a free float of ~5% and closed at $28.60 on 3 October, resulting in a company valuation of $17bn.
• The security is expected to be added to US-R 1000 in December 2025.
• Inclusion in other US and Global indices is anticipated in 2026 following lock-up expiry that increases the free float above minimum thresholds.

• After the remarkable bull market in frozen orange juice concentrate futures (OJ) between 2022 and 2024, the market topped out during the early days of 2025.
• Since then, the market corrected 60% from its highs. But for the most part of 2025 the market is actually in a consolidation phase.
• From a chart perspective, the market offers now an interesting setup

• The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
• Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 

• Crude oil futures opened the week higher after OPEC+ over the weekend announced a relatively modest output increase for November, coming in at the low end of expectations.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.47/b (2011 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $64.53/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.68/b against a previous close of $60.88/b.
• The production group agreed to add 137,000 bpd to quotas in November, citing “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” for what is now an eighth consecutive monthly rise.

Key points (machine generated)

• Metals X’s share price increased from AUD 0.22 in July 2021 to AUD 0.54, peaking at AUD 0.75 in April 2022 due to rising tin prices.
• As one of only two listed tin miners in a Western jurisdiction, Metals X presents a unique investment opportunity despite facing challenges like a complex corporate structure and reliance on a single mine.
• Recent share price changes and corporate actions suggest a potential for re-rating, making Metals X an attractive investment despite existing risks.

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• RPM International’s fiscal 2026 first quarter results exhibit notable strengths and some challenges.
• On the positive side, the company achieved record quarterly sales across all segments, with each segment generating growth of 6% or more despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• This performance marked the 14th time in 15 quarters that RPM has recorded a record adjusted EBIT, showcasing the effective execution of its growth strategy.

• Coro Energy 0.43p £3.91m (CORO.L)* The South East Asian renewable energy developer announces its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2025.
• The Company added a further 2.2MW of commercial and industrial (C&I) rooftop solar capacity with Mobile World Group (MWG) bringing the Group’s total aggregate operational capacity in Vietnam to 6.4MW with estimated run-rate annual cash flows of approximately US$720,000.
• The Company is in advanced negotiations with an industrial customer for a new 10MW project across several factory locations in Vietnam. 

• In a pick-up in primary market activity, there have been 25 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in Q3.
• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) will be added to the HSCI after market close on 15 October and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 27 October.
• There could be 4 (maybe 5) additions to the HSCI Index in December and 3 of those stocks will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open 8 December.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, all of the listings this week ended up doing well.
• On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week in Hong Kong and India, there were no major placements this week.

• Fermi is a pre-revenue advanced energy and hyperscaler development company structured as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), planning to build one of the world’s largest data center campuses, Project Matador, with its own dedicated power grid in Texas.
• The company aims to capitalize on the exponential growth in demand for data centers driven by artificial intelligence, offering an integrated solution of up to 15 million square feet of AI computing space and up to 11 gigawatts of low-carbon, on-demand power.
• Led by a management team with deep experience in the energy and government sectors, including former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Fermi recently completed a successful IPO, raising approximately $683 million, despite having no revenue-generating operations to date.

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• The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
• Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
• The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

• On October 1, 2025, Corteva Biosciences (CTVA) announced that it plans to break up into two public companies.
• The logic behind the spin-off announcement is that the SpinCo has higher margins and better growth potential.

• For example, the SpinCo has grown EBITDA at a 16% CAGR since 2020 and has a 26% EBITDA margin.

• The late commercial-stage medical device Company in advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the lungs reported interim results to June 2025 on 24th September with updated guidance for 2025.
• The Company’s Xenon MRI can provide detailed, quantifiable, crystal-clear pictures of lung imaging.
• Polarean believes that providing an enhanced picture of the lungs will help a variety of patients suffering from the many lung diseases such as asthma and cystic fibrosis. 

• Crude oil futures steadied Friday after four consecutive losses left prices sharply lower on the week, coming ahead of Sunday’s keenly anticipated online OPEC+ meeting.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.42/b (2005 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.11/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.73/b against a previous close of $60.48/b.
• Benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day before losing steam in late trading.

• How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
• Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
• We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25

• As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
• Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
• Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 

• Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.
• This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.
• While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.

• Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.
• The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.
• While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.

• Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore. 
• Beijing’s stricter stance on BHP and Simandou’s safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.
• Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

• KEIWA is a specialized manufacturer of functional and optical films, with a strong position in the growing market for advanced display technologies used in consumer electronics and automotive applications.
• Recent financial performance shows top-line growth driven by the Optical Products segment, but significant pressure on profitability with recurring profit and net income showing substantial year-over-year declines in 1H FY12/25.
• The company’s outlook is tied to the recovery of the clean energy and automotive sectors, alongside increasing demand for high-performance optical films. However, it faces risks from intense industry competition and price pressures.

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• The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
• Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
• Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.

Since our last note on 12 May, Barton has continued to aggressively develop its assets in pursuit of its ambition to produce 150koz gold per year in a two-stage ‘hub and spoke’ model, leveraging its Central Gawler Mill (CGM) and a new future Tunkillia mill. To this end, it has a) continued extensive drilling at Tarcoola-Tolmer, b) acquired the Wudinna prospect for a likely consideration of A$7.5m, or A$15/oz (plus a further potential A$7.5m if it goes into production), c) completed a A$3.0m placing to fund reserve conversion upgrade drilling at Tunkillia as well as a JORC resource upgrade at Tarcoola and d) announced two resource upgrades at its Challenger mine adjacent to the CGM to increase its resource to over 300koz, including 194koz at 3.2g/t Au on existing open pit and underground development. Consequently, Barton has now commenced a definitive feasibility study on ‘Stage 1’ production at the CGM as well as resource upgrade drilling at Tunkillia’s ‘Starter Pits’ and the necessary baseline water monitoring programme to support a mining licence application in late CY26. As a result, its market capitalisation has increased from A$49m in January to A$282m now, and it has been accepted for inclusion into the S&P Dow Jones ASX All Ordinaries Index of the 500 largest companies in Australia.

Key points (machine generated)

• Linde is the largest global producer of industrial gases, crucial for manufacturing but representing a small cost percentage.
• The industry relies on local supply due to the inefficiency of transporting heavy gases over long distances.
• Linde’s business model includes on-site supply (25%), merchant deliveries (32%), and packaged customers (38%), achieving a 33% market share.

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• Laboratory analysis of gas samples from the Jetstream #1 well at Topaz shows sustained helium-3 concentrations ranging from 1.3 to 14.5 ppb, amongst the highest naturally occurring helium-3 levels publicly reported in a terrestrial reservoir.
• This is in addition to the measured 7-8% concentration of helium-4.
• Helium-3 was encountered across all tested intervals of Jetstream #1 suggesting a single homogeneous source of helium charging the reservoir, rather than sporadic pockets or contamination.

• July exports rebound, second-best month of 2025  
• Seven-month exports slip on weaker tire and tube demand  
• Five-year car import ban lifted, boosting rubber outlook  

• Non-Operational Entity in Financial Distress: Mysore Paper Mills (MSPM) has ceased all core manufacturing operations, with paper production halted in 2015 and its sugar division in 2016. The company is characterized by a prolonged history of substantial financial losses, negative margins, and a complete erosion of net worth, rendering it a financially unviable entity in its current state.
• Government-Led Revival Efforts via Privatization: The Government of Karnataka (GoK), the majority shareholder, has deemed a public sector revival unfeasible and is actively pursuing leasing the company’s assets and operations to a private entity. However, multiple tender attempts since 2017 have failed to attract bidders, highlighting significant challenges and perceived risks by potential investors.
• High Uncertainty Against a Favorable Industry Backdrop: The company’s future is entirely contingent on the success of the government’s leasing strategy, which faces high uncertainty. This contrasts with the positive outlook for the broader Indian paper industry, which is experiencing robust growth driven by demand in packaging and education. Any potential value in MSPM lies in its physical assets and the speculative possibility of a successful operational turnaround under a new private operator.

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• Weebit Nano is a pre-revenue semiconductor company developing a next-generation non-volatile memory (NVM) technology called Resistive RAM (ReRAM).
• The company’s primary business model is licensing its ReRAM intellectual property (IP) to semiconductor foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs).
• Weebit’s ReRAM technology aims to be a successor to flash memory, offering significant improvements in performance, power consumption, and endurance, particularly for applications in IoT, AI, and automotive sectors.

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• Regulus 100% owns the AntaKori Copper-Gold Project in northern Peru, with a high-grade, low-strip, and at-surface resource of 8.0Blbs CuEq.
• The project neighbours Coimolache’s Tantahuatay Oxide Gold Mine which REG has a collaboration agreement to assess the potential combined development of the much larger Cu-Au sulphide system lying beneath the Oxide Gold Mine and across both properties.
• The management team and board, including CEO John Black, largely come from Antares Minerals, where they discovered the sizable Haquira East Cu-Mo deposit in southern Peru, which they eventually sold to First Quantum for $650M.

• What you need to know: • In September, gold rose 10.8% to approach $3,900/oz and silver surged 14.4% toward $46/oz, marking five straight months of gains.
• • Mining equities strongly outperformed, with GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, and COPX up 20.9%, 23.7%, 23.9%, and 20.1%, respectively, versus the S&P 500 (+3.4%) and TSX (+5.1%).
• • Sector momentum was reinforced by the Fed rate cut, record financing activity among juniors, and the announcement of the $53B Teck–Anglo American merger, the largest deal in over a decade.

• Q3/25 marked a particularly strong quarter for Atrium, as precious metal prices continued to rise rapidly, driving notable outperformance across our coverage.
• Our covered stocks increased 46% on average in Q3/25 and are up 227% over the past year, outperforming the TSX, which gained 12% during the quarter and 37% YoY, and TSXV, which gained 29% and 67%, respectively.
• This builds on the 27% increase from our coverage universe in Q2/25.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: JSW Steel
• UST yields fell yesterday, led by the front end and belly, as weaker than projected ADP employment data further bolstered Fed easing expectations. The UST curve bull steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps to 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.10%.
• Equities climbed for the fourth day, with the market remaining upbeat despite the US government shutdown. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.3% and 0.4% to 6,711 and 22,755, respectively.

• The SCOOP/STACK mineral and royalty acquisition added high-margin production and future development potential with zero incremental capex.
• Net production was ~420 Boe/d (54% natural gas, 15% oil, and 31% NGLs) as of the transaction’s effective date on May 1, 2025.
• Importantly, the only incremental lifting costs associated with the production are gathering and processing fees associated with some of the leases.

• Crude oil futures were sliding lower Thursday as benchmarks racked up a fourth consecutive retreat of the week, coming amid expectations of a further OPEC+ hike offsetting heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.16/b (2035 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $65.35/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.57/b against a previous close of $61.78/b.
• Briefings from OPEC+ delegates over the last few days have wiped out the previous week’s healthy gains, with the group now expected to bring back a second tranche of voluntary cuts at a quicker-than-expected pace.

• LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
• This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
• Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.

• Context: The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) vs. Ampol (ALD AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Woodside Energy (WDS AU) and short Ampol (ALD AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• The company priced 32.5 million shares at $21.00 and saw its shares open at $25.00, a 19% premium.
• Investor demand was strong and stemmed from pre-IPO testing-the-waters meetings with more than 100 investors.
• The strong momentum generated from the debut suggests that traders may continue to gravitate toward the name, creating the potential for sharp swings in the near term. 

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation is on the verge of its largest-ever divestment: the sale of its OxyChem petrochemical unit, in a deal that could fetch at least $10 billion.
• According to recent reports, the company is deep in discussions, though no buyer has been named yet.
• If finalized, this move will mark a pivotal shift in Occidental’s corporate structure—transforming the Houston-based energy giant’s strategic outlook and positioning it as one of the leanest and most carbon-focused companies in the sector.

• The Mateguafa Oeste was water wet. Our ReNAV for the well was £0.09 per share.
• We did not carry any production from this prospect in our cash flow forecast.
• The rig will now move to Mateguafa Attic where the Mateguafa 5 vertical well will be drilled in November. 

• 2H25 EBITDA guidance reflective of more normalized performance.
• While non-recurring headwinds, such as tariff- related order pattern disruptions, operational challenges, labor strikes, and adverse weather, reduced 1H25 EBITDA by close to $60 million, 2H25 EBITDA guidance of $105-115 million implies a return to more normal operations and profitability levels as RYAM works to improve costs and drive higher volumes and prices.
• Robust pipeline of cost saving and efficiency projects. RYAM has launched a targeted capital deployment of $24 million to drive $30 million in annual cost savings in its core cellulose specialties (CS) business in 2026, with additional projects envisioned for 2027 and beyond, as the company continues to optimize its operations and streamline costs, positioning itself to fully benefit from the market recovery and take advantage of incremental growth opportunities.

• Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures were drifting lower Wednesday, extending the heavy losses in the early part of the week amid growing concerns that markets could face a significant supply glut in Q4.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $65.54/b (2000 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $66.03/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI  was at  $61.97/b against a previous close of $62.37/b.
• Benchmarks came under pressure after Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that OPEC+ is considering an accelerated schedule on unwinding a second tranche of production cuts, which could fast-track the return of around 1.5 million bpd in just three months.

• 2Q25 sales (excluding NGLs) averaged 632 boe/d, reflecting continued operator-imposed constraints on the six Slawson wells due to prevailing low commodity prices.
• Aggregate production from these wells in 1H25 was 141 boe/d, below management’s forecast of 214 boe/d.
• Importantly, there are no reservoir integrity concerns.

• Capitan announced mapping, trenching, and soil sampling results as part of a reconnaissance-scale program on the newly acquired land package.
• Early work shows strong silver and gold mineralization on the north side of the granodiorite intrusion, significantly expanding the size potential.
• CAPT has upsized its fully funded Phase 1 program by 50% to 15,000m; ~8,000m drilled to date with 38 RC assays pending.

• 8th September: Project Glow Topco Limited, the ultimate holding Company of The Beauty Tech Group Limited, a global leader in the rapidly growing at-home beauty technology market, encompasses three distinct, innovative and premium beauty technology brands – CurrentBody Skin, ZIIP Beauty and Tria Laser – under which it develops, manufactures and retails at-home beauty devices.
• In FY24, the Group reported revenue of £101.1m and adjusted EBITDA of £22.9m.
• Between the financial period for the 16 months ended 31 January 2023 (FY22) and FY24, the Group’s own-brand revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew at a compound annual growth rate of 73.6% and 92.9% respectively. 

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• There were some key methodology changes announced for this index yesterday.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.

• Zijin Mining Group is a leading global mining company with a significant presence in gold, copper, and zinc production. The company is strategically focused on expanding its international footprint through acquisitions and organic growth, particularly in gold and copper.
• The company is capitalizing on high commodity prices, especially for gold, to fuel its growth and is undertaking a significant corporate action by spinning off its international gold assets into a separately listed entity, Zijin Gold, in Hong Kong to attract global investors.
• While demonstrating strong financial performance and production growth, the company faces challenges related to geopolitical risks, resource nationalism, and the inherent volatility of commodity markets. A key focus for the future is balancing its aggressive expansion with sustainable and responsible mining practices.

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• DuPont (DD) is set to spin off 100% of its Electronics business, Qnity (Q), in early November.
• Qnity is positioned to grow in line with the semiconductor industry, which is expected to expand at a mid-single-digit CAGR.
• A large portion of its portfolio consists of consumable products, supporting strong profitability with EBITDA margins around 30% (inclusive of ~$100 million in public company costs).

• US light-grade base oils domestic prices weaken versus feedstock/competing fuel prices; export price-differentials hold firmer.
• Diverging trends reflect weaker outright prices for domestic supplies and firmer prices for export volumes.
• Premium of Group II domestic light-grade base oils prices over export prices falls in response to narrowest level in more than two months.

• Crude oil futures extended early-week losses Tuesday as concerns over a Q4 supply glut took hold, with sluggish demand growth seen unable to match growing supplies from OPEC+.
• Dec25 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $66.21/b (2030 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $67.09/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI  was at  $62.57/b against a previous close of $63.45/b.
• The latest retreat also came after Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ could unwind an additional 1.5 million bpd over the next three months , with the option said to be under consideration.

• Dominant Market Position with Caveats: As the sole producer of calcium carbide in Indonesia, Emdeki Utama holds a strategic position. However, the company faces significant competition from cheaper imports, particularly from China, which pressures pricing and profitability.
• Challenging Financial Performance: The company has experienced a notable decline in revenue and net income over the past three years, with negative growth rates across key metrics. While recent quarters show some margin improvement, the overall trend points to significant headwinds.
• Attractive Valuation but High Uncertainty: Trading at a low Price-to-Book ratio, the stock appears undervalued. This is balanced by a high uncertainty rating, driven by volatile financial performance, reliance on a single core product, and intense competition from imports.

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• Despite early monsoon resulting in weak demand, RPPL posted a decent revenue growth of 4.9% YoY in Q1FY26. This was led by 45% YoY growth in exports.
• RPPL’s injection molding segment has been doing exceptionally well with revenue doubling in Q1FY26. RPPL’s Olive Ecopak JV has started slow but holds significant potential.
• At current valuation, RPPL’s stock offers an attractive entry point with potential to more than triple over a holding period of three years. 

• TPI Polene (TPIPL) is Thailand’s third-largest cement manufacturer, with diversified operations in petrochemicals, energy, and agriculture. The company is strategically pivoting towards sustainability, emphasizing ‘green’ cement and expanding its waste-to-energy power generation, which is expected to improve margins and reduce environmental compliance risks.
• The company faces significant headwinds from a highly concentrated domestic cement market and intense competition in the regional petrochemical sector. Financial performance has deteriorated over the past three years, marked by declining revenues, shrinking profitability, and negative free cash flow, reflecting challenging market conditions and cost pressures.
• Forward-looking growth is contingent on the successful execution of its green transition strategy and the pace of Thailand’s public infrastructure spending, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). While the valuation appears inexpensive on a price-to-book basis, significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and magnitude of an earnings recovery.

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• Asia’s base oils prices slip versus gasoil prices amid recent rise in crude oil prices.
• Heavy-grade base oils margins stay relatively firm even with recent downward pressure.
• Recent squeeze on margins could prompt refiners to resist price-adjustments to reflect any change in supply-demand fundamentals.

• US base oils demand could ease amid expectations of ready availability of supply and steady-to-lower prices.
• US demand typically rises in month of October from September before slowing in month of November.
• Typical rise in demand in month of October would coincide with major plant shutdown for scheduled maintenance work.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
• The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
• The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see two changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in December.

• Based on DCF model, valuation is about US$28.4 billion. We think this is the valuation bottom line. Conservative investors can take profits at this valuation level.
• Valuation has the potential to reach US$34-42bn (or 18-22x P/E ) if based on 2025 forecast.Optimistic investors can choose to wait for stock price to fall within this valuation range. 
• Considering better profitability/shareholder resources, Zijin Gold has more advantage than Shandong Gold Mining. Therefore, market value of Zijin Gold will widen the gap with Shandong Gold Mining in the future.

• Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
• As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
• Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) raised around US$3.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Copper prices surged from around $10,000 to $10,350 per metric ton due to a longer and more severe outage than expected at the Grasberg mine.
• The disruption in production is expected to result in a 200,000 metric ton shortfall in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a further 270,000 metric ton loss in 2026.
• The impact of the supply shortage has flipped the refined copper market from a surplus to a significant deficit, leading to a bullish outlook and a projected price increase to $11,250 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026.

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• Fermi (FRMI US) , amended the terms of its IPO on Monday morning increasing the size from 25.0 million shares offered to 32.5 million shares.
• The deal is multiple-times oversubscribed. The company conducted extensive testing-the-waters meetings with more than 100 accounts, drawing strong and high-quality demand.
• Data centers and powering the AI trade is likely to be a recurring theme over the coming year.

Key points (machine generated)

• Solaris’s stock has surged fourfold after acquiring Mobile Energy Rentals, driven by interest in data center power.
• Analysts criticize Solaris’s energy rental business for lacking sustainability and proprietary technology in a competitive market.
• Activist investors are targeting Solaris for short selling, indicating concerns over the sustainability of its growth.

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• Shivalik Rasayan, once focused on agrochemicals, has entered pharmaceuticals by acquiring Medicamen Biotech and securing USFDA approval for its new API plant at Dahej-II in 2024.
• The company is transforming into a diversified chemicals and pharma player. Investments in R&D, larger agrochemical capacity, and regulated pharma access open pathways for higher-margin and sustainable growth.
• Despite past issues of underutilized plants, high costs, and delays, recent approvals and new facilities position Shivalik Rasayan for steadier performance and long-term growth if execution remains strong.

• ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
• Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
• Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, this week saw a few good listings across the region while the spotlight will be on Zijin Gold (2259 HK) in the coming week.
• On the placements front, it was a relatively quiter week, as compared to some of the more recent weekly flows.

• TBL boasts of the largest ethanol distillery capacity (3.6% market share). With capex for input fungibility done, the company has set its sights on becoming the largest producer soon.
• The expansion in Compressed Bio-gas compounds the growth levers, but will require material working capital investments. Sustainable aviation fuel opportunity also seems compelling in light of the recent government push.
• IPO seems priced to perfection with deal multiples of 12x FY26 EBITDA, visibly at the higher end of 6-14x multiple for peers. Faster deleveraging may add to market cap upside.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Zijin Gold (2259 HK), Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK). 

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• More government  deals in the critical minerals sector support our outlook
• Grasberg mine accident and closure highlights tightness in the copper market