Event-Driven

Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.

Canon Electronics (7739 JP): Canon (7751 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,650

Canon Electronics (7739 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Canon Inc (7751 JP) at JPY3,650, a 32.4% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it is above book value (P/B of 1.21x), above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
An attractive offer facilitates meeting the required tendering rate. The offer closes on 19 January 2026 and is a done deal.

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Nov 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle
Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520
StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs
Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside
Robinhood’s Acquisition of WonderFi Faces Regulatory Hurdles Amid Canada’s New Crypto Exchange Rules

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges

SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%).

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%

Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%.
Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender.
With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP).
SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle

FSC confirms December rollout; beyond procedural cleanup, this structural shift in flows brings small-to-mid shops and offshore retail, creating new order patterns in the local market.
Omnibus accounts aggregate orders under one broker, blurring classic smart-money signals, slowing local retail follow-ons, and creating wider price-action gaps in the order book.
MSCI volatility trades also require attention; the omnibus rollout will likely intensify flows as new accounts follow major institutions, impacting the Korea sleeve short-term.

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs

I see Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) trading around all-time highs – both the implied stub (net of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280).
Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.
The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.
For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.

Robinhood’s Acquisition of WonderFi Faces Regulatory Hurdles Amid Canada’s New Crypto Exchange Rules

Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi Technologies at C$0.36/share faces CIRO approval, expected to close in H1 2026.
The spread widened to 36% after the closing date was delayed due to a longer CIRO review.
Robinhood’s controversial compliance history includes US$300m in fines, aligning with industry standards for crypto exchanges.

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Nov 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86
M&A Battle for APlus Asset Advisor Heats Up Amid Tender Offer
Naver Financial and Dunamu Finalizes the Merger Ratio
Ingdan (400 HK) Reloads Comtech’s Spin-Off and Listing
Alphawave: Fully Valued, Waiting for the Wire
Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 7 December. A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB, NZ OIO and ACCC approval.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x. The short exclusivity period increases the odds of a binding proposal.

M&A Battle for APlus Asset Advisor Heats Up Amid Tender Offer

There appears to be a M&A battle heating up for APlus Asset Advisor. This is because it was reported that Aplus Asset Advisor Chairman Kwak Geun-ho has increased his stake.
Chairman Kwak Geun-ho purchased additional 30,904 shares of Aplus Asset’s common stock over three trading days and his stake increased by 0.14 percentage points from 20.06% to 20.20%.
In the next 3-6 months, we expect additional upside to the stock price (to 10,000 won to 12,000 won) as more investors perceive this could be an attractive M&A target.

Naver Financial and Dunamu Finalizes the Merger Ratio

On 26 November, Naver Financial and Dunamu finalized the merger ratio. Under the proposed share swap, one share of Dunamu will be exchanged for 2.54 shares of Naver Financial.
Dunamu’s equity value is 15.1 trillion won, and Naver Financial’s is 4.9 trillion won.
Overall, we have a positive view of this merger and it is likely to positively impact Naver’s share price as well.

Ingdan (400 HK) Reloads Comtech’s Spin-Off and Listing

Technology platform play Ingdan (400 HK) is moving ahead, again, with the spin-off and listing of 72.42%-held Shenzhen Comtech in the PRC.
The listing – should it go ahead, as the previous attempt was abandoned – is expected to involve the issuance of new shares. Ingdan will maintain a stake in Comtech.
Comtech accounted for 95% of Ingdan’s revs in the 1H25. Expect the market to heavily discount Ingdan’s stub ops, and Ingdan’s NAV post spin-off.

Alphawave: Fully Valued, Waiting for the Wire

Qualcomm’s $2.48/share offer for Alphawave is fully recommended and cleared by regulators, with completion expected mid-December. FX-linked cash value limits remaining upside; no sweetener or bump indicated.
Alphawave shares now trade above implied value, reflecting full deal certainty. Arbitrage returns attractive only for early entrants; current negative spread makes new positions unattractive.
Founders aligned via exchangeable securities; structure supports completion. Qualcomm gains SerDes IP and custom silicon capabilities for AI data center growth, diversifying away from mobile reliance.

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).
TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.
The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.

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Nov 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm
National Storage REIT (NSR AU) In Trading Halt Ahead Of Possible Brookfield/GIC Tilt
SMEC (099440 KS) Pops As SNT Shifts Its Intent
Priority Technology Faces Management Buyout Proposal Amid Activist Opposition
POSCO Holdings: Selling Remaining Stake in Nippon Steel in a Block Deal Sale
Management Buyouts and Litigation Updates: PRTH, KNOP, LEN, ABCP, and NANO Developments in Focus

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

By Brian Freitas

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm

The board of Iress Ltd (IRE AU), a trading and wealth management software provider, has denied reports in an Australian article concerning a possible takeover from Blackstone.
The article said that Blackstone was reportedly back in talks for a bid “that could be worth between $11 and $12 per share“. Iress’ share price promptly popped 8% yesterday.
Iress is still very much in play as it “continues to engage with multiple parties“.

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) In Trading Halt Ahead Of Possible Brookfield/GIC Tilt

Reportedly, Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC will make an Offer for National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Australia and New Zealand’s largest landlord of self-storage sites .
The AFR is reporting that Brookfield/GIC are on the cusp of launching a bid around NTA. NSR entered into a trading halt this morning.
Earlier this year, key peer Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) fielded an NBIO from Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) at a ~3% premium to NTA; however, Ki/PSA ultimately walked.

SMEC (099440 KS) Pops As SNT Shifts Its Intent

SNT Holdings (036530 KS) has lifted its stake in SMEC (099440 KS), South Korea’s second-largest machine tool manufacturer, to 13.65% from 8.19%. SNT’s chairman also holds 6.55%, or 20.2% all-in.
Concurrent with the stake increase, SNT formally declared its equity holding in SMEC to “management participation” from “simple investment“.
The move could simply be one of SNT aligning its interests with SMEC’s management. But more likely, it’s a precursor to a potential hostile takeover. SMEC is now up ~40%.

Priority Technology Faces Management Buyout Proposal Amid Activist Opposition

Priority Technology received a non-binding privatization offer from founder Thomas Priore at $6-$6.15/share, with Priore owning 58%.
Activists Buckley Capital and Steamboat Capital oppose the bid, claiming it undervalues PRTH, suggesting a fair value of $10-$17/share.
The company’s segments include Merchant Solutions, Payables, and Treasury Solutions, with 64% of adjusted gross profit from recurring revenues.

POSCO Holdings: Selling Remaining Stake in Nippon Steel in a Block Deal Sale

After the market close on 25 November, it was reported that POSCO Holdings is selling its remaining stake in Nippon Steel Corporation in a block deal sale.
The block deal sale involves selling the remaining 39.2 million shares of Nippon Steel. The deal is valued at 24.2 billion yen (approximately 227 billion won).
Given the overall negative sentiment on POSCO’s potential acquisition of HMM, until this uncertainty is resolved, POSCO Holdings’ share price could continue to face stiff headwinds.

Management Buyouts and Litigation Updates: PRTH, KNOP, LEN, ABCP, and NANO Developments in Focus

Priority Technology (PRTH) received a non-binding privatization offer from its founder at $6-$6.15/share, with activist opposition.
KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP) received a non-binding privatization offer at $10/unit, with expectations of a bumped offer.
Lennar Corporation (LEN) completed a tender offer, with a final exchange ratio of 4.1367x and oversubscription.

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Nov 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20
A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
SNT Group – Formalizes a Hostile Takeover of SMEC
Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer
Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal

The proposed bill fully closes the treasury-share loopholes, bans all exchangeable/pledge uses, blocks M&A allocations, and imposes strict cancellation deadlines—1 year for new buys, 6 months for existing.
The amendment tightens disposal rules: no cancellation means pro-rata sales to existing shareholders only, shutting down selective deals and closing the wide-open disposal gap under current law.
The proposal is far tougher than expected, likely to become the final version, and should drive a near-term mandatory-cancel narrative and notable price action in governance-sensitive holding-co names.

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20

Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval.
While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.

A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won.
If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%.

SNT Group – Formalizes a Hostile Takeover of SMEC

On 24 November, the SNT Group formalized its hostile takeover of Smec. S&T Holdings disclosed that it acquired an additional 5.46% stake in SMEC, raising its stake to 13.65%.
S&T Holdings and SNT Group Chairman Choi combined own a 20.2% stake in SMEC. In comparison, the SMEC CEO Choi Young-seop owns a 9.75% stake in SMEC.
In our view, this is likely to lead to a potential fight for the control of SMEC’s management rights, pushing up the share price of SMEC even further.

Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer

Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) & Genesis Capital.
The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms “opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company“.
Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF. MVF’s share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down.

Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

Neinor will complete the voluntary OPA at €21.335 with Castlelake’s 79%, then launch a mandatory €24/share offer for minorities if acceptance falls below 50%, effectively setting a regulatory floor.
Aedas shares jumped to €23.65 as the market prices a near-certain €24 exit. The resulting 1.5% spread offers a mid–single-digit annualized return, driven mainly by timeline rather than deal risk.
Next steps include CNMV approval of the voluntary OPA, acceptance verification, and automatic escalation to the mandatory €24 offer. Execution risk remains minimal; timing drift is now the main variable.

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Nov 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
Merger Arb Mondays (24 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, ENN, Jinke, Shengmu, AUB, Digital Hldgs, Pacific Ind
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought

HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, ENN, Jinke, Shengmu, AUB, Digital Hldgs, Pacific Ind

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Star Micronics (7718 JP).

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025): Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.
Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids.

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.

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Nov 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve
Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: RPMGlobal, Insignia, Webjet, Mayne Pharma, Jinke Smart, Digital Holdings
Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve

If the three non-IT names exit IT, passive flows hit hard: SK Square/LG Electronics ~0.4× DTV out, LG Corp ~0.8× DTV out, new IT entrants ~0.2–0.25× DTV in.
If KRX surprises next Tuesday, kicking three names from IT, expect immediate tape reaction—market memory exists, but the scenario isn’t priced, unlike 2023 Kakaopay, so instant price impact is likely.
If this happens, June 11 turns into a chunky basket-flow day: SK Square (~15% weight) out, next-tier caps see ~0.15–0.2× DTV inflow, except ultra-liquid names like Hanmi Semi.

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: RPMGlobal, Insignia, Webjet, Mayne Pharma, Jinke Smart, Digital Holdings

I tally 34 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK). Technically, the Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is new.
Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal (RUL AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Webjet (WJL AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP).

Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

Given the size of Mandi – relative to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) – higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.
CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.
While Grindr (GRND US) Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.

Pharma-Play 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has announced the spin-off and listing of 87.16%-held Mandi (MANDI HK) on the HKEx.
3SBio will distribute its stake in-specie. There will be a concurrent global offering, the details of which are still to be fleshed out.
Mandi (MANDI HK), a ” hair loss and weight management treatments” solutions provider, accounted for 17% of 3SBio’s revs in the 1H25, and 12.5% of profit.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
Samsung Bioepis Holdings and Samsung Biologics to Start Trading on 24 November
Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer
Thai Pledged Shares In October 2025

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.

Samsung Bioepis Holdings and Samsung Biologics to Start Trading on 24 November

Samsung Bioepis Holdings and Samsung Biologics will start to trade on 24 November. We remain positive on Samsung Biologics/Samsung Bioepis Holdings.
Operating profit more than doubled, up 115.3% YoY in 3Q25, indicating significant operating leverage. The company’s excellent results in 3Q25 is likely to positive impact the newly listed shares.
Biologics division achieved 1.26 trillion won in sales with a 50% operating margin, while the Bioepis unit generated sales of 441 billion won with a 29% operating margin in 3Q25.

Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer

After seven months had elapsed since receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer (an MBO) had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, is offering US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Hillhouse upped the ante with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. The share price hasn’t closed below US$1.25/share since; but the reason may not just hinge on Hillhouse firming its Offer.

Thai Pledged Shares In October 2025

As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
Pledging in those shares – in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex – have been static, to down, in the month of October.
Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer
Webjet Group (WJL AU): Helloworld’s Scheme Offer Likely to Morph into Competing Takeover Offers
Samyang Foods: Block Deal Sale of 103 Billion Won of Treasury Shares
Unilever PLC to Spin Off Ice Cream Business on December 6
Naver Financial and Dunamu BODs To Decide on A Comprehensive Stock Swap on 26 November
GBM Resources (GBZ AU)’s Proposed Secondary Listing In Hong Kong
Yaoko Spearheads M&A Rush in Japanese Supermarket Sector
KNOT Offshore Partners Faces Lowball Privatization Offer Amid Strong Market Position and Potential for Higher Bid
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma IPO Lockup – US$850m Cornerstone Release

Genes Tech’s (8257) Rare Arm’s-Length Offer

Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK), a turnkey solutions provider, has announced a rare, arm’s-length Offer, by way of a Scheme.
The Offeror, privately-held Tinicum, is offering HK$0.245/share (not declared final), a 87% premium to last close, and a four-plus-year high.
Irrevocables comprising 69.79% of the register are supportive. Super clean deal

Webjet Group (WJL AU): Helloworld’s Scheme Offer Likely to Morph into Competing Takeover Offers

Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding scheme offer from Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) at A$0.90 per share, a 12.5% premium to the rejected BGH/Weiss offer of A$0.80.
The Board has granted due diligence. The offer is unattractive compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges.
The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids from BGH/Weiss and Helloworld.

Samyang Foods: Block Deal Sale of 103 Billion Won of Treasury Shares

Samyang Foods is pursuing a block deal sale of 103 billion won of its treasury shares to secure additional funds for facility investment and improve its financial structure.
Samyang Foods plans to sell 74,887 common shares (0.99% of issued shares) at 1,372,000 won per share. The expected block deal price is 1% lower than the current price.
The counterparties of this block deal sale have already been announced which include Viridian Asset Management, Jump Trading, and Weiss Asset Management.

Unilever PLC to Spin Off Ice Cream Business on December 6

By Garvit Bhandari

Unilever is set to complete the spin-off of its ice cream business by December 6, 2025. The new company will start trading from December 8, 2025.
The Magnum Ice Cream Company lists with ~€8 billion in revenue and improving margins, though elevated leverage post-spin is a concern.
Unilever’s ice cream spin-off streamlines its portfolio, but valuation uplift appears limited.

Naver Financial and Dunamu BODs To Decide on A Comprehensive Stock Swap on 26 November

Dunamu and Naver Financial are expected to hold separate board meetings on 26 November and the potential merger of the two companies is on the agenda.
The valuation of Dunamu is expected to be about 15 trillion won and the valuation of Naver Financial is expected to be about 5 trillion won.
This merger offers clear long-term advantages, including the opportunity to compete globally with overseas fintech firms like PayPal and Coinbase. Additionally, the collaboration strengthens Korea’s position as a stablecoin leader.

GBM Resources (GBZ AU)’s Proposed Secondary Listing In Hong Kong

Aussie gold and copper explorer GBM Resources (GBZ AU) has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses – to be repaid upon a successful listing.
The listing is, ostensibly, to “broaden its investor base“; however Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development.

Yaoko Spearheads M&A Rush in Japanese Supermarket Sector

By Michael Causton

Yaoko is now called Blue Zone Holdings, and is shaking up Japan’s supermarket landscape by acquiring two well-matched regional chains just weeks after its launch.
The company plans to accelerate plans to acquire other smaller supermarket chains to build out into a national chain.
The plan also signals a new wave of M&A in the sector as barriers to supermarket consolidation finally start to fall.

KNOT Offshore Partners Faces Lowball Privatization Offer Amid Strong Market Position and Potential for Higher Bid