Event-Driven

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania.
The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged.

Merger and Acquisition Updates: TaskUs, scPharmaceuticals, Apiam, Plymouth, Mayne Pharma, Banxa, and DallasNews

TaskUs privatization bid at $16.50/share faces opposition; market anticipates improved offer before September 10 shareholder vote.
Apiam Animal Health receives A$0.88/share takeover offer; largest shareholder supports, board likely to recommend upon binding agreement.
Banxa shareholders approve OSL Group acquisition; regulatory consents pending, closing expected Q4’25–Q1’26, spread at 21%.

A Block Deal Sale of 1.4 Trillion Won of Hanwha Ocean Shares by Hanwha Impact Partners

Hanwha Impact Partners sold 1.4 trillion won worth of Hanwha Ocean shares in a block deal sale.
Hanwha Ocean’s share price closed down at 5.4% to 112,500 won on the KRX exchange today but still 5% higher than block deal price of 107,100 won.
We believe that this block deal sale of 1.4 trillion won worth of Hanwha Ocean is likely to have a near-term negative impact on Hanwha Ocean’s stock price.

POSCO: Reviewing a Potential M&A of HMM

The biggest potential M&A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
Overall, we believe there is a higher probability of POSCO backing out of this potential acquisition of HMM, rather than POSCO completing this M&A deal.
Although POSCO claims that it spends about 3 trillion won annually on logistics, the actual synergies among these three businesses (steel, rechargeable battery, and logistics) remain murky.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Speedy Turnaround On Pre-Cons and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Speedy Turnaround On Pre-Cons
Potential Spillover Trades from Next Month’s KOSDAQ150 Weeklies Launch
Tracing Korea’s Flow Dynamics: Short-Term Sector Rotation Plays
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Index Inclusion & Beyond. Toy Craze or Emerging ACG Play?
SK Chemicals: A Potential EB Issue of 240 Billion Won Using Its Stake in SK Bioscience
Harim Holdings – EB Issue of Its Treasury Shares for 143 Billion Won
MannKind’s Acquisition of scPharmaceuticals: Strategic CVR Valuation and FDA Approval Prospects for SCP-111

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Speedy Turnaround On Pre-Cons

Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK) announced last night all pre-cons have been squared away. That must be some kind of record to secure SAMR approval for a Hong Kong-listed privatisation.
Back on the 12th August, Kangji Medical announced a less-than-ideal Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
What next? The Scheme Doc dispatch remains the 31st October, unless announced otherwise, as the Cayman Court is still on its six week “vacation”.

Potential Spillover Trades from Next Month’s KOSDAQ150 Weeklies Launch

KRX plans to list KOSDAQ150 weekly options next month, likely October 27, and is lining up market makers to ensure two-way liquidity from day one.
Early volumes for KOSDAQ150 weeklies will be thin, making MMs cautious, but some may step in despite risks.
Early KOSDAQ150 weeklies could trigger spillover trades, as thin volumes and active MMs lead to IV–spot gaps, price dislocations, and triangular arbitrage opportunities.

Tracing Korea’s Flow Dynamics: Short-Term Sector Rotation Plays

Korea’s seeing classic sector rotation: H1 hot money is exiting shipbuilding and defense ETFs, with 7% of AUM out in a week, as traders hunt the next wave of flows.
Short-Term plays focus on two angles: policy-driven sectors like retail/dividends, and less-run names. Secondary batteries lead flows, topping local sector ETF net inflows lately.
Sector rotation trades focus on Sept 11 rebalances: TIGER Secondary Battery TOP 10 and KRX Semis. Long-short setups on top names plus rotation flows could spark notable price moves.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Index Inclusion & Beyond. Toy Craze or Emerging ACG Play?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to both the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) — effective Monday, September 8, 2025.
Beyond the tail winds from this technical upgrade, stock’s further upside rests on investor conviction on its potential to continue to deliver strong growth beyond the short term.
Pop Mart’s near term growth rests on proving IP durability and executing global scale-up.

SK Chemicals: A Potential EB Issue of 240 Billion Won Using Its Stake in SK Bioscience

Hankyung Business Daily reported today that SK Chemicals (285130 KS) is pursuing an issuance of exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 240 billion won using its stake in SK Bioscience (302440 KS).
SK Chemicals has not officially announced its plans to issue such EB which is likely to have a positive impact on SK Chemicals and negative impact on SK Bioscience.
SK Chemicals’ market cap is now 1.1 trillion won. Its 66.4% stake in SK Bioscience is worth 2.6 trillion won.

Harim Holdings – EB Issue of Its Treasury Shares for 143 Billion Won

Harim Holdings (003380 KS) announced that it plans to sell its 14.744 million treasury shares through an issuance of EB worth 143 billion won.
The EB exchange price is 9,713 won (15.6% higher than its current price). The company plans to use the EB proceeds to pay down debt and for working capital.
We are NEGATIVE on Harim Holdings’ EB issue using its treasury shares as the main asset to be exchanged.

MannKind’s Acquisition of scPharmaceuticals: Strategic CVR Valuation and FDA Approval Prospects for SCP-111

MannKind acquires scPharmaceuticals for $5.35/share plus a CVR up to $1.00; market values CVR at $0.17.
SCP-111’s FDA approval is crucial for CVR value; pivotal trials complete with positive results, sNDA submission expected Q3 2025.
Sales milestone challenging; FUROSCIX revenue below $110m threshold; MannKind’s distribution network key for growth.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head
LS Cable – To Issue an EB Worth 400 Billion Won Using LS Marine Solution as Base Asset?
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Precondition Satisfied for the Light Scheme Offer
PC Partner (1263 HK): Thoughts On The HKEx Delisting
Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer
Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October
BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread
2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case

Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, has increased his Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) to an 18.36% ownership ratio at an average buy-in price of JPY4,154.28 vs. the JPY4,140 tender offer.
Crucially, in today’s disclosure, Takateru Murakami outlines the rationale for his stake building, which centres on the book value being materially understated if certain land were revalued at market rates.
Maintaining current terms is increasingly not a viable option. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is likely to pursue a strategy of either increasing its offer or lowering the minimum acceptance condition.

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head

Effissimo reported a 5.87% ownership ratio in Pacific Industrial (7250 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,235.91 per share is 9.1% above the JPY2,050 MBO offer.
Effissimo buying significantly above terms is justifiable as the offer implied a P/B of 0.71x. Effissimo is agitating for either a bump or an opportunity to participate in the back-end.
With the offer closing on 8 September and shares trading 16.9% above terms, the Ogawas have little choice but to revise terms.

LS Cable – To Issue an EB Worth 400 Billion Won Using LS Marine Solution as Base Asset?

Major major local media including Maekyung Business Daily and Chosun Daily have reported that LS Cable & System is pushing forward with an EB worth 400 billion won.
The target stock to be used in the EB is LS Cable’s shares in its subsidiary LS Marine Solution.
LS Marine Solution is one of the largest marine engineering companies in Korea, specializing in the installation and maintenance of submarine cables, offshore wind infrastructure, and marine energy systems.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Precondition Satisfied for the Light Scheme Offer

The precondition for Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s scheme privatisation from a consortium is satisfied. The offer, which has been declared final, is at HK$9.25 per share.
The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). Crucially, the blocking stake is below the substantial disclosure threshold.
Despite the recent derating of peers, the vote risk remains medium-to-high due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

PC Partner (1263 HK): Thoughts On The HKEx Delisting

On the 15th November 2024, personal computer parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK)‘s secondary listing, by way of introduction, was effected.
The SGX also granted in-principle approval for the conversion of its secondary listing status to a primary listing. This dual-listing status (SGX + HKEx) took effect on the 20th August.
In tandem with a SGX free float waiver, PCP will now seek a HKEx delisting. This listing/delisting construct is to ensure the uninterrupted supply of NVIDIAs GPUs.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer

On the 11th July, PEP offered A$4/share for integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU), a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder (17.62%), was supportive.
Pricing is okay. The absence of a final year fully franked dividend, which was teased at the onset, was ostensibly disappointing.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th October, and expected implementation on or before the 23rd October. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

The Johns Lyng (JLG AU) IE considers PEP’s A$4.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$3.72-4.42 valuation range.
The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. The scheme vote should pass as no disinterested shareholder comes close to holding a blocking stake.
The offer is reasonable as the timing of an earnings recovery is highly uncertain. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%.

BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread

BMPS raises terms to 2.533 BMPS shares plus €0.90 cash per Mediobanca share, waiving the two-thirds condition while retaining a 35% minimum—shifting sentiment to a modest, positive convergence setup.
Timeline tight: board review this week; acceptance deadline 8 September; results and settlement mid-September unless terms change, which could trigger re-opening and push closing toward late September or early October.
Best expression remains long Mediobanca, short 2.533× BMPS per share; a 1% BMPS move shifts implied consideration ~€0.19 (≈1% of MB), so maintain a disciplined hedge into catalysts and headlines.

2025 High Conviction: QFIN US – Event-Driven: Regulatory Overhang Sets Up 100%+ Upside Post-Clarity

By Raj S, CA, CFA

QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.
QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.
Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval
Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers

Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has finally secured FEFTA approval for its JPY7,130 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The close of the tender offer has been extended to 18 September.
The Board has opposed the Yageo offer due to synergies, dis-synergies and cultural differences. However, on 29 August, the Board’s update suggested a possible pathway to recommend Yageo’s offer.
Despite Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s tendency to go against its declarations and increase its offer on several occasions, this time it is different. Minebea is likely to exit.

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?

By Devi Subhakesan

The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases Mixue Group (2097 HK)’s free float, which still remains below 10%.
Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.
At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote

On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (July and August 2025)

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in July and August 2025.
We provide a list of 29 companies in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in July and August 2025.
There were three companies with more than 1 trillion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in the past two months with at least 1% of outstanding shares.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift
Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion
Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
Increasing Probability of Hanwha Group Selling Its 8% Stake in Korea Zinc
Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More
Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides

On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range.
At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory.
However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up.

HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.

Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift

Today’s FSS IFRS17 ruling is an accounting fix (equity vs. liability), not the Samsung Life Law, which is a regulatory cap on affiliate stakes based on market value.
The FSS ruling signals Samsung Life doesn’t need to treat its Samsung Electronics stake as a forced-sale liability, lowering near-term sale risk.
This eases the overhang, delays potential stake moves, and reinforces the relative underperformance setup on Samsung C&T highlighted in earlier posts.

Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases

Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer at A$0.88/share with an 11% spread, supported by founder Dr. Chris Richards.
Plymouth Industrial REIT has a $24.10/share bid from Sixth Street Capital, with a 14-15% spread and board review ongoing.
DallasNews has two takeover offers: $15/share from Hearst and $18.5/share from Alden, requiring two-thirds shareholder approval.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… is flat. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.1% H underperformance vs As which is -4.4% on average over two weeks.
Last week’s short reco on Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was up 2.3% on the week in Hs but Hs underperformed the As by 1.86%.
AH premia are in a widening phase. This may continue. New reco this week.

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close.
Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment.
Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.

Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off

Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025.
No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.

Increasing Probability of Hanwha Group Selling Its 8% Stake in Korea Zinc

There has been an increasing probability of the Hanwha Group selling its stake in Korea Zinc (010130 KS) mainly due to increasing burden of its petrochemical affiliates.
For now, the Hanwha Group has denied all news regarding its potential sale of stake in Korea Zinc.
In our view, the timing of this potential sale in Korea Zinc by Hanwha Group is less likely in 2025 but could occur in 2026/2027.

Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More

Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, with a current spread of 11%.
YORK announced a merger with CRO token issuance, with each YORK share representing approximately 47 CRO tokens.
Pacific Current Group’s FY25 results show a 28% discount to NAV, with potential capital allocation concerns.

Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital

Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, representing a 60% premium.
Adamantem has 30 days of exclusivity for due diligence, with support from AHX’s largest shareholder and founder.
AHX’s enterprise value is A$220m, aligning with Adamantem’s typical transaction size and strategic acquisition interests.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen
Curator’s Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China’s Property Pulse
Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Mulling a Privatisation Bid
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2025 Wrap: Dongfeng Motor, Kangji, Carenet, Nihon Chouzai, Technopro
Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen

Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer.
The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.

Curator’s Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China’s Property Pulse

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China’s bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative

Short-Term, pinpointing exact tickers off this NPS/cumulative voting narrative is tough—activism risk is real, but predicting moves in governance-sensitive names is still premature.
NPS may go aggressive, potentially sparking a market-wide narrative. If limited activism unwinds, Korean stocks could see a broad re-rate, beyond just individual governance names.
Tactically, consider enhanced setups in these names under a passive framework, while closely monitoring governance developments and NPS-driven activism for actionable alpha in individual tickers.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Mulling a Privatisation Bid

The AFR reports that Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and four other bidders are considering a privatisation bid for RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) at around A$5.00 per share.
In response to the article, RPM entered a trading halt the same day regarding “an indicative proposal from a third party regarding a potential acquisition.”
RPM’s shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is reasonable but is far from a knockout bid, suggesting the potential of a bidding war.

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2025 Wrap: Dongfeng Motor, Kangji, Carenet, Nihon Chouzai, Technopro

For Aug 2025, 17 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$18bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was 48%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%

Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions

Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 31

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Mayne Pharma, Shengjing Bank, Carenet, Austindo Nusantara, Ashimori
Last Week In Event SPACE: Dongfeng Motor, Shibaura, HD Hyundai Heavy/HD Hyundai Mipo, Zijin Mining
Weekly Deals Digest (31 Aug) – ENN Energy, Shengjing, Ashimori, Carenet, Shibaura, Mayne, Aux

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Mayne Pharma, Shengjing Bank, Carenet, Austindo Nusantara, Ashimori

I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Dongfeng (489 HK), Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ), Shengjing Bank (2066 HK), and HD Heavy (329180 KS)/HD Mipo (010620 KS). .
Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), and Ashimori Industry (3526 JP).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Dongfeng Motor, Shibaura, HD Hyundai Heavy/HD Hyundai Mipo, Zijin Mining

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) to be taken private via cash plus scrip into the backdoor listing of its EV arm.
Minebea extends its ¥6,200 TOB for Shibaura (6957 JP) to 11 September, a day after YAGEO’s ¥7,130 bid expires. Now there’s no game of chicken with Minebea. Just with METI.
The HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)/HD Hyundai Mipo (010620 KS) merger announcement reaffirms Seoul’s commitment to the MASGA project.

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Aug) – ENN Energy, Shengjing, Ashimori, Carenet, Shibaura, Mayne, Aux

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric (2580 HK) prices at the top of the range, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs
Spectris – KKR Clears Shareholder Hurdle; Arb Returns Now Timing-Dependent
Brian Kim’s 15-Year Hit: Trading Kakao Through the Founder Risk
Keurig Dr Pepper to Spin-Off Coffee From Beverages Following JDE Peet’s Acquisition

RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a trading halt ahead of a rumoured tilt from Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
No price has been made public; although local media are reporting an Offer Price of $5/share, a 32.6% premium to undisturbed.
Shares will be suspended until the 2nd September. Earlier this year, RPMGlobal transitioned to a pure-play software company after offloading its advisory division.

Spectris – KKR Clears Shareholder Hurdle; Arb Returns Now Timing-Dependent

KKR’s £41.75/share cash-and-dividend offer for Spectris has secured overwhelming shareholder approval, with scheme completion likely in Q1 2026 pending court sanction and regulatory clearances under the UK Takeover Code.
The deal implies a 105% premium to the undisturbed price and 15.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, with KKR already beginning to take control of governance and management direction at Spectris.
At 4,040p close, the spread looks attractive; outcome is binary, but timing is the critical swing factor for returns as settlement drifts between January and March 2026.

Brian Kim’s 15-Year Hit: Trading Kakao Through the Founder Risk

Brian Kim’s 15-year sentence request looks set to hit Kakao and affiliates — founder risk has always sparked volatility on Kakao, so the sharp market reaction is no surprise.
But locals see odds of lighter or suspended time — if Kakao dumps on headline risk, it could be more entry window than pure downside.
Event-Driven setup: short Kakao vs long Naver for relative value, but into sentencing, odds of lighter time suggest fading any overdone Kakao dump could be the cleaner trade.

Keurig Dr Pepper to Spin-Off Coffee From Beverages Following JDE Peet’s Acquisition

By Garvit Bhandari

Keurig Dr Pepper, following the close of the JDE Peet’s acquisition, plans to separate Global Coffee Co. via a tax-free spin-off to KDP shareholders
Post separation, the parent will retain North American refreshment beverages portfolio (Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, energy/functional, RTD alcohol adjacencies).
We view KDP’s two-step transaction as value accretive for shareholders, creating two investable profiles that should appeal to distinct shareholder bases.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder
CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
What Was It in SK Inc that Got the Local Pension Funds Loading up Hard Today?
Maruti E‑Vitara Launch: Make in India, Make for the World…
Honeywell Files Form 10 for the Spin-Off of Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder

When EQT launched its deal for Carenet Inc (2150 JP) two weeks ago, I thought it opaque, and light, and strangely lacking in information which should be there.
It has not gotten clearer, though three days ago, the largest foreign shareholder as of the announcement reported they had lowered their position by 3.77% (4.22% of votes).
Then yesterday, someone else reported they had gone above 5%. The data implied in that filing suggests this may have legs. I’d buy through terms.

CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT

Kaname Capital reported a 5.80% ownership ratio in Carenet Inc (2150 JP). Most of the shares were purchased on August 18 and 19, i.e., after the announcement of the offer.
Kaname has a recent history of agitating for a bump in the Proto Corp (4298 JP) tender offer. Kaname failed to prevent Proto from being privatised.
EQT will initially take a wait-and-see approach. If Kaname acquires a 10% stake, EQT will start to worry, but it has several options to respond.

What Was It in SK Inc that Got the Local Pension Funds Loading up Hard Today?

LG plans to cancel its remaining 3.02M treasury shares by next year, effectively wiping out all treasury stock—a clear preemptive move ahead of mandatory cancellation rules.
Local pension funds are betting SK Inc will do a partial treasury burn before Q4, front-running the 3rd Commercial Act and sending a pro-policy signal.
The SK treasury burn story offers multiple plays: holdco rerate, SK Inc momentum, and subsidiary rollover as NAV discounts tighten—definitely a multi-layered setup worth active monitoring.

Maruti E‑Vitara Launch: Make in India, Make for the World…

By Nimish Maheshwari

Prime Minister Modi kick‑started production and global dispatch of Maruti Suzuki’s e‑Vitara EV with a “Make in India, Make for the World” pitch.
It marks India’s ascent as a global EV manufacturing hub while bolstering local EV infrastructure and Japan‑India industrial synergy.
Suzuki is investing INR 70,000 crore (~US$8 billion) over 5–6 years and targeting 50k to 1L units of EV exports each year.

Honeywell Files Form 10 for the Spin-Off of Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)

By Garvit Bhandari

Honeywell submitted a Form 10 registration statement to the SEC on August 21, formally initiating the planned separation of Solstice Advanced Materials as a standalone company
The new entity will focus on specialty materials such as refrigerants, semiconductor materials, protective fibers, and healthcare packaging.
Honeywell retains Aerospace Technologies, Industrial Automation, Building Automation, and the non-Advanced-Materials pieces of Energy & Sustainability Solutions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years
ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval

A day before the close of Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s offer, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has strategically stated that it expects to receive FEFTA approval by 10 September.
Minebea had tried to convince shareholders that its lower offer provides an opportunity to monetise their shares quickly and with certainty. This line of reasoning is no longer credible.
As Minebea will not increase its offer or extend the closing date, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)‘s Board will have to recommend Yageo’s offer.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold

Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”

HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities

HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.

A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo

It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%

Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.

Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years

We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) in the next 1-2 years.
On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion won investment plan in the United States. This plan is likely to have been pressured heavily by the Korean government.
A big problem with this plan is Korean Air does not produce enough cash flow and its balance sheet is not strong enough to invest such huge amounts of capital.

ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured