Event-Driven

As forecast, there are no changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December while there are 4 changes for the STAR100 Index.
There will be big outflows for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981 CH) due to SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) capping. There will be selling from other index trackers too.
Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676 CH) had been ignored by the index committee at the September rebalance, so this inclusion in the STAR100 Index could come as a surprise.

Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for Dec 6 Rebal

In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on prices of 29 November’s close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$15,894,690,433.49 to trade on 6 December. Roughly speaking.

KWEB Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 4 Deletes in December

The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 13 December.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) is an add while Lufax Holding (LU US), Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK), ZX (9890 HK) and YSB (9885 HK) are deletes.
The deletions of Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK), ZX (9890 HK) and YSB (9885 HK) were forecast and there will be positioning in the stocks. Lufax was a close delete.

Quiddity CSI 300/500 Dec 24 Results: ~90% Hit Rate; Positive Start for the Trade

The December 2024 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
There will be 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$4.5bn and US$3.8bn in one-way flows respectively.

WealthNavi (7342 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Opportunistic Tender Offer

In response to a Nikkei article, WealthNavi (7342 JP) disclosed Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s tender offer at JPY1,950 per share, an 84.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
The high premium reflects WealthNavi’s steep 46% YTD share price decline, i.e., the timing is opportunistic. The offer is below the Board’s requested price.
While the irrevocable has a competing offer clause, a competing proposal is unlikely due to MUFG’s stake. However, a bump is possible if activist(s) take around a 15% stake.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Nov 2024); SB Trading Volumes Lower, Still Strong Net Buying Tech

SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply again to the lowest in a few months but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong, with big flows on tech.
Most of the top names were tech names – both in gross and net buys. Only 1 tech name in top five net sells.
Last week I said I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don’t compete in the US. Continue.

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Couple of Surprises; Seres Group’s Multiple Inclusions; US$3.2bn Trade

There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
Seres Group (601127 CH) is an add to both indices, plus the CSI 300 Index, and passive trackers will need to buy over US$900m of the stock.
The adds have outperformed the deletes with a lot of the outperformance coming in the last couple of months. Trim positions in the expected adds/deletes and build positions in surprises.

MUFG Launches a TOB to Take Out Robo-Advisor WealthNavi (7342) – The 81.4% Premium Is Light

MUFG (8306) bought 15.5% of WealthNavi (7342 JP) in February at ¥1,718/share – zero premium. The shares fell. Now they are bidding for the rest 13.5% higher.
WealthNavi forecasts fantastic growth. Dec29 OP is specifically estimated at ¥13.822bn. Everyone agrees there are synergies, but they’re not “valued” because they “cannot be specifically estimated at this moment.”
I believe investors should start demanding Synergy CVRs of acquirors when synergies are not included in the fair value calculations.

Aster DM and Quality Care India: A Deep Dive into the Merger

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) and Quality Care India are merging to form India’s third-largest hospital chain with over 10,150 beds.
This merger combines two major players, generating significant scale, diversification, and financial strength. The merged entity will benefit from synergies and plans to expand to over 13,000 beds by FY27.
The merged entity is expected to be EPS accretive and expected to increase EBITDA by 10-15% through synergies

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Nov 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)
Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks
Ecopro BM’s KOSPI Move: Trade LS Marine Solution & Green Cross for the Real Play
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 52 Companies in Korea in December 2024

Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)

Early this morning, a Nikkei article said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would buy out the remaining 85% of WealthNavi (7342 JP). Expected to be completed by March.
MUFJ Bank and WealthNavi signed a Business Alliance in February. WealthNavi issued 9.11mm new shares to MUFJ at ¥1,718/share. That was a discount to market and shares are down ~40%.
WealthNavi’s AUM is growing (¥1.3trln at end-Oct) and the goal is to launch a money advisory platform by FY2026. Now they need to decide on the premium.

Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM

On the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
The buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. To avoid an MGO, this requires a whitewash waiver
The Offer Doc is now out. The EGM – and the first close – is the 20th December.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-November 2024.

Ecopro BM’s KOSPI Move: Trade LS Marine Solution & Green Cross for the Real Play

Ecopro BM’s still hot trading volume might minimize passive impact. The real action is who replaces it in KOSDAQ 150 and which KOSPI 200 stock gets the boot.
LS Marine Solution joins KOSDAQ 150, while Green Cross Holdings gets the boot due to the lowest average daily market cap from May 1 to October 31.
KRX fast-tracks approvals for financially strong companies in 20 trading days. Ecopro BM likely qualifies, meaning approval could come before Christmas—ideal timing for entry.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 52 Companies in Korea in December 2024

By Douglas Kim

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 52 stocks in Korea in December 2024, among which two are in KOSPI and 50 are in KOSDAQ.
Hese 52 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in December are Jeju Air, LS Materials, and Toolgen.

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Nov 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea
A Proxy Fight for Korea Zinc in January 2025
Korea Zinc Saga Turning into a Comedy Show: MBK’s Speculative Move & How It’s Shaping Our Trades
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: Final Expectations; LONGs up +6% Vs SHORTs in a Month
HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Nov 2024): Geely Auto, Kingsoft Corp, Coastal Greenland
AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Indicative Offer at A$0.67 (103% Premium)
ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow
AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Done Deal

NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

An article in Japanese weekly magazine Bunshun this morning sent shares inSBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.
Without access to the article, I can’t go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is “worried” about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)
It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn’t the same as buying a company. Hmmm…

A Proxy Fight for Korea Zinc in January 2025

By Douglas Kim

There is likely to be a proxy fight for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) between MBK/Young Poong alliance and Chairman Choi/Bain Capital alliance in January 2025.
Young Poong Precision announced that it will acquire 39,254 shares of Korea Zinc. Post this purchase, Young Poong Precision will own a 2.11% stake in Korea Zinc (up from 1.92%).
FSS Governor Lee Bok-Hyun mentioned that the FSS is seriously reviewing a potential accounting issue related to environmental pollution at Young Poong.

Korea Zinc Saga Turning into a Comedy Show: MBK’s Speculative Move & How It’s Shaping Our Trades

Lee Bok-hyun, head of the Financial Supervisory Service, unexpectedly voiced concerns about MBK winning Korea Zinc’s management battle, catching everyone off guard.
The key question is how Michael ByungJu Kim will handle government pressure, with MBK possibly aligning with the opposition if the Democratic Party pushes for commercial law reform.
Korea Zinc now becomes a proxy war over governance reform. Watch MBK’s political stance, as it could drive the stock higher, especially if Michael teams up with the opposition.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: Final Expectations; LONGs up +6% Vs SHORTs in a Month

The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at our final expected ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
We see four ADDs/DELs in December 2024. While the expected DELs list remains unchanged since last month, there is a change in our expected ADDs list.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Nov 2024): Geely Auto, Kingsoft Corp, Coastal Greenland

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Geely Auto (175 HK), Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK), and Coastal Greenland (1124 HK).

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Indicative Offer at A$0.67 (103% Premium)

Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from AVID at A$0.67 per share, a 103.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The proposal is subject to due diligence (till 31 January 2025), entry into a scheme implementation deed, and shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO).
The largest shareholder supports the offer, which represents a 20-year high. AVID has completed initial due diligence, lending confidence that a binding proposal will materialise.

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed.
After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.
The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Done Deal

On the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a widely recognised home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
AVID, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, have pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share, in cash, a punchy 103% premium to last close.
Apart from entering a SIA after DD (expected end-Jan completion), the Offer requires FIRB and OIO to sign off. AVJ’s board, controlled by Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) is supportive.

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Nov 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382 JP) – A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382 JP) – A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?
Vitasoy (345 HK): Trading Rich As Ng & Yeo Hiap Seng Up Their Exposure
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Implications from the YORK Holdings Stake Sale
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Last-Second Changes to the Last-Minute Changes
Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) Possible MGO
Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea’s Market
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Back Into The Fold?
Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Possible MGO At HK$1.78/Share.
Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another
Vitasoy (345 HK): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Mounts

7&I (3382 JP) – A York Holdings Deal And Warren Buffett?

The Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) to rid itself of control of the Ito-Yokado, York Benimaru, Akachan Hompo, and Denny’s Japan businesses in York Holdings proceeds apace.
The First Round of bids is due tomorrow, apparently, and all manner of bidders have assembled.
This leads to the question of a deal for the rest of 7&i. If a TradingCo is a natural co-investor for the Ito family (or ACT), so is Berkshire Hathaway.

Vitasoy (345 HK): Trading Rich As Ng & Yeo Hiap Seng Up Their Exposure

Yesterday, beverage maker Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK) announced a 1H25E (Mar Y/E) net profit of HK$171mn, a 4.8% gain yoy. An interim dividend of HK$0.04/share (HK$0.014/share in 1H24), was declared.
What was absent from the announcement/briefing was any comment on Philip Ng Chee-tat’s and Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)‘s recent buying in Vitasoy.
Ng, the younger brother of Sino Land (83 HK)‘s chairman Robert Ng Chee-siong, indirectly holds 12.26%, up from 5.22% on the 7th October. The share price is up 104% since.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Implications from the YORK Holdings Stake Sale

NHK reports that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s first bidding round for a YORK Holdings stake ends on 28 November. The sale provides a third-party valuation benchmark for the asset.
It is an incremental positive for the founding family MBO as it supports the post-privatisation strategy and assists in securing bank financing.
This is an incremental negative for Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) as it shows that the Board believes the restructuring plan will increase shareholder corporate value.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Last-Second Changes to the Last-Minute Changes

There are now new changes forecast for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December for a total of 8 inclusions and 7 deletions.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 21.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 75.8bn (US$2.33bn).
The potential changes had a big one-day move yesterday and we expect similar moves over the next couple of days.

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) Possible MGO

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G (1250 HK) disclosed a possible mandatory unconditional offer from Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro (412 HK) at HK$1.78, a 7.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is conditional on SDHS completing a sale and purchase agreement (SPA) to acquire CITIC Securities’ entire 13.52% stake at HK$1.78 per share.
The key precondition of the SPA is SDHS shareholder approval of an ordinary resolution relating to the SPA and the possible offer. The vote is a formality.

Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea’s Market

For March KOSPI 200 futures, expect a 0.95% to 1% yield for spot-futures arbitrage, with contango depending on year-end ex-div trends and passive inflows.
Passive inflows into the value-up index in January and spillover effects into K200 futures, potentially fueling year-end contango due to overlap with KOSPI 200.
Prop trader dynamics are cooling off: Tax-driven buying in December, selling in January likely to ease, reducing the past backwardation. Without it, expect higher volatility in K200 futures.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Back Into The Fold?

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) a leisure-focused integrated tourism group, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Fosun Tourism was spun off from Fosun International (656 HK) in December 2018. Fosun Int’l currently holds 79.45% of shares out.
Fosun Tourism gained ~8% yesterday on the highest volume in over two years. Recent news concerned Temasek-backed CapitaLand Investment (CLI SP) taking a 20-30% stake in Fosun Tourism’s subsidiary Club Med.

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Possible MGO At HK$1.78/Share.

Not a delisting Offer, but a possible mandatory unconditional Offer from Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) (SDHG) at HK$1.78/share, a premium of 7.23% to last close.
SDHG, with 43.45%, has entered into an SPA with two Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)-backed funds holding 13.52%, the completion of which lifts SDHG’s take to 56.97%, triggering an MGO.
Conditions to the SPA are straightforward. Expect Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G (1250 HK) to trade tight, if not through terms.

Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

Overnight, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.
There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.
A price drop of 20% or more puts Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.

Vitasoy (345 HK): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Mounts

Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)’s shares surged 19.5% on speculation that billionaire Philip Ng will launch a takeover offer due to recent share purchases.
Philip Ng’s stakebuilding suggests three potential outcomes. The likely near-term outcome is that he continues to nudge up his stake and potentially seek Board representation.
Without the Lo family’s support, a scheme privatisation is impossible. While a voluntary conditional offer is possible, it isn’t very likely, as Vitasoy’s valuation looked frothy at the last close.

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Nov 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing
Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is
Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics
Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution
DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications
Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December
EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661).
Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh.
Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of <5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and <1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just >15%, or just >20%.
Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares – the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%.

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics

Overnight, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.
There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.
However, Sanrio (8136 JP) is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.

Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

By Douglas Kim

Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution.
The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks.
The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.
HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.

EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225‘s trend is uncertain at the moment: the new N225 WEEKLY QUANTCHART presented here (freely accessible 24/7 clicking here) shows us the current MRM models’ support and resistance.
In the last few months the index stalled, currently it is stuck in a range roughly between 37650 and 40250, and it has closed down for 2 consecutive weeks (CC=-2).
At the moment we expect the index to fall maybe another week (closing this week down) and then a LONG reversal the following week.

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Nov 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards
Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes
GQG Remains Bullish on Adani Despite US Indictment
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)
SG Fleet (SGF AU): Pacific Equity Partners’ Indicative Offer at A$3.50
Figuring Out the Right Entry Point to Go Outright Short on Korea Zinc
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: TDIV Exp ADD/DEL In the Money; Strong Trade Performance
SG Fleet (SGF AU): PEP’s A$3.50/Share NBIO

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards

On 13 November, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) announced an equity offering to raise capital for capex expenditures over the next several years. It is significantly dilutive.
The shares responded by falling 23% to 8-months lows of ¥1,850 last Thursday and Friday. That puts the stock at the same forward PER post-offering as it was pre-offering.
That’s probably not an awful place to own now that the stock will have been slightly de-risked/de-levered.

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes

Using data from the close on 25 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 60.6bn (US$1.86bn).
On average, the forecast adds have started to outperform the forecast deletes. Positioning should continue in stocks that have large flow/impact or have recently joined the list of forecast adds/deletes.

GQG Remains Bullish on Adani Despite US Indictment

GQG acknowledges the seriousness of the charges, but maintains its confidence in the Adani Group companies.
GQG sees a distinction between the allegations against the individuals and the operational strength of the businesses.
The firm believes that the fundamentals of the companies remain strong. GQG will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)

Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December, replacing Airtac International (1590 TT).
Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) is also expected to be added to the Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF in December, so there will be buying from multiple trackers.
Shorts are near their lows in Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) while there has been covering in Airtac International (1590 TT) after an increase in the last few months.

SG Fleet (SGF AU): Pacific Equity Partners’ Indicative Offer at A$3.50

Sg Fleet (SGF AU) confirmed it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Pacific Equity Partners at A$3.50 per share, a 31.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
In consultation with Bluefin Investments, the largest shareholder, PEP has been granted exclusive due diligence access, which ends on November 29.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and represents an all-time high. The talks are in the final stages, as due diligence ends at the end of the week.

Figuring Out the Right Entry Point to Go Outright Short on Korea Zinc

The 5% voting gap between Choi and MBK leaves NPS and sideline minority players as key swing factors, with NPS’s stake potentially closing the gap for Choi.
If NPS sold half its stake in the tenders, it’s down to 4%, not enough to close the gap, likely giving MBK the win and triggering a post-meeting price drop.
The key to our outright short is NPS’s January 10 disclosure, with market chatter suggesting NPS has likely sold about half its holdings in the two tenders.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly

By John Ley

Implied vols were lower across all sectors on the week with option volumes peaking on Friday.
Post-Earnings vol crush helped push vols lower for key names.
Tencent stands out with low implied vols over the past year, high liquidity and is trading almost 17% below its 52 week high.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: TDIV Exp ADD/DEL In the Money; Strong Trade Performance

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
Today is the base date for the final ranks for the December 2024 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs and their flow implications for the TDIV index which will also have a rebalance event in December.

SG Fleet (SGF AU): PEP’s A$3.50/Share NBIO

SG Fleet (SGF AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, has announced a A$3.50/share non-binding and indicative proposal from Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
SGF’s board, in consultation with South Africa’s Super Group (SPG SJ), its largest shareholder, has granted PEP exclusive due diligence.
A$3.50/Share is a 31% premium to undisturbed. The exclusivity period expires on the 29th November 2024. That short timeframe suggests a firm Offer is imminent.

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Nov 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (25 Nov) – Seven & I and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Nov) – Seven & I, Fuji Soft, ID&EH, Arcadium, Henlius, Canvest, GAPack
HSTECH Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) Replaces Weibo (9898 HK); US$1.5bn Round-Trip Trade
Henlius (2696 HK): NDRC Approval Should Calm Nerves
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Still Baby Steps to Get to 100 Members
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Nov 2024); Volumes Much Lower But Broad-Based Buying Continues
Henlius (2696 HK): The Spread Should Narrow After NDRC Approval
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors
China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.24) – 10th VBP, Biotech Valuation Logic, China Resources Reorganization

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Nov) – Seven & I, Fuji Soft, ID&EH, Arcadium, Henlius, Canvest, GAPack

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU).
Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Xingda International (1899 HK), Elematec Corp (2715 JP).

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) Replaces Weibo (9898 HK); US$1.5bn Round-Trip Trade

In a surprise, Midea Group (300 HK) will replace Weibo (9898 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) after the close of trading on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$11.72bn (US$1.51bn). Passives need to buy 9x ADV in Midea Group (300 HK).
The Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) / Midea Group (300 HK) premium could drop due to the index inclusion providing an entry point into an AH expansion trade.

Henlius (2696 HK): NDRC Approval Should Calm Nerves

Due to several factors, the gross spread of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) has widened to 21.5%.
The wide gross spread reflects the China TCM deal break hangover, slow progress in satisfying the precondition, Fosun Pharma’s potential funding challenges, and the shareholder vote.
NDRC approval should calm nerves about precondition satisfaction. Even with lingering deal-break concerns, a 21.5% gross spread is excessive.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Still Baby Steps to Get to 100 Members

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in December while New World Development (17 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.7% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$10.89bn (US$1.4bn) with over 1 day of ADV to trade in the adds and the delete.
The index committee has net added 1 stock to the Hang Seng Index this year to go from 82 to 83 constituents. Reaching the 100-member target will drag into 2026.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Nov 2024); Volumes Much Lower But Broad-Based Buying Continues

SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong and very broad-based.
The trend continues to be net buying of tech though Friday saw a lot of profits taken in Tech names by SOUTHBOUND holders.
I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don’t compete in the US. Still.

Henlius (2696 HK): The Spread Should Narrow After NDRC Approval

On the 24th June, Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) made a HK$24.60/share Offer, in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative was subsequently afforded.
This is a pre-conditional Offer, subject to NDRC, Mofcom and SAFE – followed by a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. Henlius has announced that NDRC approval has now been secured.
Trading at a massive gross spread of ~21.5% compared to ~10% just prior to China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)‘s capitulation. This is excessive.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped sharply but net buying continued strongly.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK’s main indices down 6-7% and China’s blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 – 4.8%).
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of “disappointing” lack of stimulus measures.

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.24) – 10th VBP, Biotech Valuation Logic, China Resources Reorganization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The 10th national VBP officially begins. Enterprises involved in this VBP include Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK), Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH), CSPC (1093 HK), etc..
We analyzed Chinese Biotech companies’ P/S range based on different product revenue growth. Due to low profitability, there is “a valuation discount” if they are included in global valuation system.
KPC has agreed to acquire 51% interest in CR Shenghuo from CR Sanjiu. Due to good performance, we are full of expectations for the future acquisition/integration within China Resources.

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Nov 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sayona/Piedmont, I D & E Holdings, Arcadium, Pacific Smiles, HKBN, MAHB
Meiji Holdings (2269 JP) Offering – May Approach a 9Yr Low
Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya
HSCI Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) And Black Sesame (2533 HK) Added
Kioxia (285A JP): Early Christmas with IPO Approval, Grinch Steals Fast-Entry
SENSEX Index Rebalance: F&O Inclusion Brings First of Many Index Inclusions for Zomato

HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) will replace Longfor Properties (960 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.
There could be a move higher in PICC Property & Casualty over the next few days while any selling in Longfor Properties will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sayona/Piedmont, I D & E Holdings, Arcadium, Pacific Smiles, HKBN, MAHB

I tally 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals this week: Amcor (AMC AU)takes out Berry Global (BERY US);Sayona (SYA AU)and Piedmont (PLL AU) merge; and Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP)‘s TOB.
Key updates/news took place on: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), HKBN (1310 HK), Xingda International (1899 HK), and Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK).

Meiji Holdings (2269 JP) Offering – May Approach a 9Yr Low

Meiji Holdings (2269 JP) on Friday announced 9 different banks would sell 4.7% of float in an equity offering to price in the first few days of December 2024.
The shares closed Friday within 1.5% of a 52wk low. The shares are less than 9% off a 9-year low. The offering is about US$300mm and 15 days of ADV.
Given the stock is under-levered, and structurally a low volatility name, a large move should encourage buying.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&i for “additional actionable avenues.”
The Amcor Limited (AMC AU)/Berry Global Group (BERY US) merger looks clean. However, Berry’s % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split
This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on Tuya Inc (TUYA US). Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.

HSCI Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) And Black Sesame (2533 HK) Added

Midea Group (300 HK) and Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close on 6 December.
Midea Group (300 HK) is already in Southbound Stock Connect while Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added from the open on 9 December.
There is a huge lock-up expiry for Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) in February while the lock-up for Midea Group (300 HK) cornerstone investors ends in March.

Kioxia (285A JP): Early Christmas with IPO Approval, Grinch Steals Fast-Entry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is scheduled to be listed on 18 December 2024, at the prime market of TSE at an expected valuation of ~$4.9bn.
The security’s low free float is the main cause of Fast-Entry rejection by both global indices and quarterly exclusion from the one global index.
Quarterly inclusion to the other global index is forecasted for June 2025 following the 3-month minimum trading requirement.

SENSEX Index Rebalance: F&O Inclusion Brings First of Many Index Inclusions for Zomato

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will replace JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) in the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the close on 20 December.
This is the first of many potential inclusions for Zomato in local indices over the next few months and is due to inclusion of the stock in the F&O segment.
Futures and options in Zomato (ZOMATO IN) start trading from the open on 29 November. Expect increased volatility in the short-term and an increase in traded volumes.

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Nov 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs, 5 DELs, Big ADV on Small Stocks
Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs
FineToday (289A JP): Fine In May & June 2025 for Global Index Inclusion
Adani Group’s Crucial Disclosure Lapses About Bribery & US Investigation
EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds

KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs, 5 DELs, Big ADV on Small Stocks

The December 2024 index review results for the KOSPI Indices were announced after the close on Thursday 21st November 2024.
There will be four ADDs and five DELs for KOSPI 200 during the December 2024 index rebal event.
We predicted 8 out of 9 changes correctly. We missed one of the DELs and we expected a couple extra changes which did not materialize.

Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs

The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.
The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.
The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.

FineToday (289A JP): Fine In May & June 2025 for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is scheduled to be listed on 17 December 2024, at the prime market of TSE at an expected valuation of ~$1.5bn.
Addition to the small-cap segment of both global indices is forecasted to take place at the May and June 2025 quarterly reviews.
Full exercise of the greenshoe can increase free float from 35% to 45% hence the security’s passive fund demand upon inclusion.

Adani Group’s Crucial Disclosure Lapses About Bribery & US Investigation

Adani Group’s handling of U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures highlights significant lapses in transparency, including delayed and contradictory statements.
Inconsistent disclosures and wrong disclosure about US investigations raising red flags for regulatory compliance and governance.
Search warrants for Sagar Adani, Nephew of Gautam Adani issued in Mar-23, which is not disclosed in fundraising documents as well as Annual Report.

EQD | NIFTY 50: State Of The Odds

By Nico Rosti

After a period of prolonged sell-off, the NIFTY Index last week found support around the 23263 level and bounced.
Below we introduce a new “quantitative chart” tool called “QUANTCHARTS“: it displays in a compact format all the information you need to evaluate the probability of trend reversal.
As you will see the NIFTY Index closed just below the 25% (Q1) probability target, so it has room to rise further in the coming weeks, the CC is supportive.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word

There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%.
Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23%
Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX

By Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote