Event-Driven

Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem. According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks.
Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.

Korea’s Next Policy Play: NAV Discount Squeeze on Low‑Float Large Caps

Market sniffing policy push; low-float names flagged as junk risk with skewed control. Desks circling, Palliser hit early—LG Chem trade popped, timing spot on.
Trade setup: screen >₩1tn caps with low float, parent stakes 60–80%. Policy push likely forces stake cuts, driving float higher and squeezing NAV discounts—LG Chem shows the play.
Screening >₩1tn caps flags 11 names: parents hold 60–80%. All potential stake-sale plays to boost float, squeeze NAV discount.

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad’s IPO Price Firmed

First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021.
First Pac’s NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.

Weekly Update (JNJ, LEN/MLR, SOLS)

There is a good amount of froth in the market.
The “Fear & Greed Index” has slipped into “Extreme Fear” which is usually a good contra-indicator.
For what it’s worth, I’m still finding plenty of ideas that look attractive from a “bottom up” perspective.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On

By Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Catalana Occidente – Inocsa Sweetens Offer: A Modest Bump Amid Sector Outperformance

Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.
Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.
Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.

Advent – U-Blox: Offer Successful (67.55%); AAP 16–29 Oct; ~0.3% Residual Spread

Offer now successful at 67.55%; Additional Acceptance Period runs 16–29 Oct. Shares at CHF 134.6 versus CHF 135offer leave minimal upside.
Focus shifts to elections/settlement mechanics: tender elections, UBXNE line, EGM approvals, and remaining clearances. Expect delisting then squeeze-out if thresholds reached; execution risk dominates spread.
Risk-Arb stance: tender in; keep sizing conservative. Residual carry ~1–2% annualized depending on settlement timing; liquidity remains good but may tighten as AAP progresses.

1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

Telefónica evaluating 1&1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.
Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.
Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.

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Oct 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals
Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s A$0.87/Share Offer
Lynch Group (LGL AU): 21st November Vote On TPG’s Offer
Lynch Group (LGL AU): Scheme Vote on 21 November
Bel Fuse Arbitrage Opportunity, Mayne Pharma Court Win, Pacific Current Buyback, STAAR Proxy Pushback, Empresaria Board Overhaul
China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup – US$1bn+ PE Release
Vestas (VWS) SLB: Trade the Jan to Apr 2026 Publication Window

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU).

Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s A$0.87/Share Offer

Back on the 18th August, Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, announced a A$0.88/share non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
That was a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms were firmed, shareholders would also be afforded a partial scrip option.
Apiam and Adamantem have now firmed terms at A$0.87/share, including a permitted fully franked dividend up to A$0.10/share. Mix & match options available, including 100% scrip.

Lynch Group (LGL AU): 21st November Vote On TPG’s Offer

Back on the 20th August, Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, entered into a Scheme with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both are TPG entities.
TPG offered A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close, including a A$0.09/share fully franked dividend. 38.5% of shareholders were supportive. TPG held a call option for 19.9% of shares out.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 21st November, and expected implementation on the 9th December. The IE (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable”. Clean deal.

Lynch Group (LGL AU): Scheme Vote on 21 November

The Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) IE considers TPG Inc (TPG US)’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.

Bel Fuse Arbitrage Opportunity, Mayne Pharma Court Win, Pacific Current Buyback, STAAR Proxy Pushback, Empresaria Board Overhaul

Bel Fuse’s Class A and B shares have a price gap, with BELFB trading 18% above BELFA, suggesting potential arbitrage.
Mayne Pharma’s court ruling favors MYX in the A$7.40/share takeover by Cosette, pending FIRB approval by October 31.
STAAR Surgical’s Q3 sales rose 7% YoY, driven by China demand recovery, amid proxy advisory opposition to Alcon’s offer.

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup – US$1bn+ PE Release

By Sumeet Singh

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) (CRB) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its PE investor is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Vestas (VWS) SLB: Trade the Jan to Apr 2026 Publication Window

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Trade call: Long the €500MM 2029s (XS2449928543) to underwrite a 2025 SPT 1 miss. Capture +5bps, and any signalling premium from a flagship renewable issuer missing own operations emissions
High miss risk: SPT 1 likely misses by >50%, while SPT 2 and SPT 3 look on track versus 2025 target thresholds.
Catalyst path: Measurement at Dec 31st, 2025, publication and assurance any date before Apr 29th, 2026. Step-up date fixes uplift from the next period after Jun 2026.

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Oct 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
SK: Restructuring of Renewable Energy Business of Nearly 1 Trillion Won & Chey’s Divorce Payment
Larvotto Resources (LRV AU): USAC’s Unattractive NBIO
Kering – Beauty Sale to L’Oréal: Deleveraging Catalyst in a Strategic Reset

[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible

Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer.
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances.

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

SK: Restructuring of Renewable Energy Business of Nearly 1 Trillion Won & Chey’s Divorce Payment

SK Group plans to restructure its renewable energy businesses that could result in asset sales of more than 1 trillion won.
SK Group is taking on a major restructuring of its renewable energy businesses, including including fuel cells, energy storage systems (ESS), and solar/wind power generation facilities.
A consensus has been forming in the local media regarding Chairman Chey’s expected divorce payment to his wife Roh So-young to be about 400 billion won to 700 billion won.

Larvotto Resources (LRV AU): USAC’s Unattractive NBIO

Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) at 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares.
The offer is unattractive as the current implied offer value is 20% below the last close price and undervalues the core Hillgrove Mine based on the DFS’s NPV analysis.
USAC’s share price meteoric rise YTD amplifies the risk of the all-scrip offer. The Board should push for better terms or outright reject the NBIO.

Kering – Beauty Sale to L’Oréal: Deleveraging Catalyst in a Strategic Reset

€4 bn divestiture cuts Kering’s net debt to ~2× EBITDA, marking a decisive deleveraging under new CEO Luca de Meo.
Balance-Sheet reset buys time for Gucci’s creative relaunch; early fashion-week feedback encouraging.
We see moderate upside to €333–€350/share if execution sustains cost control and brand momentum.

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Oct 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
Larvotto Resources (LRV AU): USAC’s Friendshoring NBIO
Weekly Deals Digest (19 Oct) – Mayne, Soft99, Mandom, Kangji, Mandarin Oriental, Genting Malaysia
BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga
Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer

A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

Larvotto Resources (LRV AU): USAC’s Friendshoring NBIO

In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I flagged the possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects, as a means towards securing a supply of critical minerals.
Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), an explorer/evaluator/developer of gold and antimony, has now announced a NBIO from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) @ A$1.40/share, a 87.67% premium to undisturbed.
USAC has also declared a 10% holding. An independent board committee is assessing the approach. Due diligence has not yet been granted. That should be forthcoming.

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Oct) – Mayne, Soft99, Mandom, Kangji, Mandarin Oriental, Genting Malaysia

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: JST Group (6687 HK) and FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPOs; Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) H Share listing.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU),Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Genting Malaysia (GENM MK).

BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

The BBVA-Sabadell offer failed with <30% acceptance, as institutional and retail shareholders decisively rejected the all-stock, no-premium structure.
Our long SAB / short BBVA trade worked tactically near expiry, as the market rewarded standalone value and capital flexibility.
The outcome reinforces that hostile, low-premium, all-share deals rarely succeed in Europe — governance, sentiment, and structure matter as much as price.

Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.
Miss risk: F&I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.
Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.

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Oct 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer
Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade
Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?
Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandarin Oriental, RPMGlobal, Genting, Mayne Pharma, Iress, Kangji Medical

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) disclosed a privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close.
The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million.
The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer.

Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade

Near‑term flow looks muted: Shinhan likely drips ~0.3% SO stake into liquid tape, not a block. With ₩2tn daily turnover, market easily absorbs without price shock.
Top‑holder stake dips 20.14→19.84% post‑sale, but ₩10tn buyback cancels ~1.5ppt float, restoring 20.14%. The 0.3% selldown’s pre‑calculated; no real trading juice, flow impact minimal.
Inheritance‑tax overhang done, buyback cycle fading. Gov’t pressure plus family’s last selldown point to dividend ramp. Prefs at 23% discount vs 10% target set up clean reversion trade.

Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?

By Himanshu Dugar

Sammaan Capital approved a 3-part preferential issue to Avenir, part of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign-controlled IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants (convertible in 18 months)
Sammaan has been looking out for an equity partner for few quarters now. Avenir’s backing not just improves capital positioning but also helps restructure overall liability side of the business
Upon consummation (80% probability), we anticipate material re-rating potential. However, there are multiple risks in the near term, including accelerated write-offs. Further, an ongoing litigation may jeopardize the deal itself.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) is trading tight – perhaps too tight – to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.
Be long Welcia Holdings (3141 JP). Be long Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.
Richard Li’s HKT Ltd (6823 HK) is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandarin Oriental, RPMGlobal, Genting, Mayne Pharma, Iress, Kangji Medical

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) and Genting Malaysia (GENM MK).
Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), and Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).

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Oct 18

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?
Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics
NPS Announces New Local SMID Fund Managers: Could Impact March KOSPI Size Index Migration Event
Honeywell Spin-off (Solstice) Deep Dive
Q3 ’25 Spin-off Round Up + Spin-off Calendar

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO offer price has been increased by 8.7% to JPY2,680, an 18.8% discount to the last close and a 34.6% discount to the Effissimo offer.
Ostensibly, the offer was revised based on requests from some shareholders to increase the offer price and for it to exceed the book value of JPY2,653 (implying P/B of 1.01x).
The latest update points to modest withdrawals of non-KeePer acceptances. Effissimo continues to face an uphill task, and the revised MBO offer increases the odds of success.

Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics

It was reported that Hong Ra-hee, Lee Boo-jin, and Lee Seo-hyun will be selling a combined 1.7 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics to pay for inheritance taxes.
This stake sale by the Lee family will represent 0.3% of Samsung Electronics outstanding shares.
Samsung Electronics still trade at low multiples and its valuations remain attractive. Its recent strategic partnership with OpenAI regarding the Stargate project also remain a major positive catalyst.

NPS Announces New Local SMID Fund Managers: Could Impact March KOSPI Size Index Migration Event

NPS’s new SMID mandates use a benchmark, an 80/20 mix of the KOSPI Mid+Small Cap (Size Index) and KOSDAQ150, with ~₩500bn total, implying roughly a 20% step-up in mid/small-cap exposure.
March KOSPI large→mid-cap migration could trigger significant passive flows, unlike last September when policy rallies and APR index noise distorted flow–price impact correlation.
NPS compressed its SMID trading window near the effective date, hinting at tighter rebalancing; with ~20% mid-cap exposure bump in March, this could create a notable price impact trade.

Honeywell Spin-off (Solstice) Deep Dive

Honeywell (HON) will spin off 100% of its Advanced Materials business, Solstice (SOLS), on October 30, 2025.
Solstice is a leading global supplier of environmentally sustainable refrigerants, electronic materials, and specialty chemicals.
The business has historically grown at roughly a 4% CAGR and is positioned to benefit from several long-term tailwinds — including semiconductor expansion, data center growth, industrial onshoring, and regulatory phase-downs of high-GWP refrigerants.

Q3 ’25 Spin-off Round Up + Spin-off Calendar

Honeywell spinoff Solstice to continue M&A playbook post separation: Spin-offs that are active in M&A tend to perform well. This is a positive.
Top Golf VIC Write Up: Good write up breaking down the demerger arbitrage opportunity
WSJ: The Years Buzziest Deals are Corporate Breakups

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Oct 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered
LS Group Family Members Sold a 6.3% Stake in LS Ecoenergy – To Buy More Shares of LS Corp?
Buy 99 Shares of Lennar (LEN) – Special Situation Odd Lot
Daiichi a Possible Target for Arcs Takeover as Gains in Hokkaido
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October’25 Report
Analyzing Bel Fuse Share Class Arbitrage: BELFB Premium Over BELFA and AI-Driven Market Dynamics

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher

The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent. A stake it acquired twenty years ago.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.
The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends.
Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.

LS Group Family Members Sold a 6.3% Stake in LS Ecoenergy – To Buy More Shares of LS Corp?

It was reported that various members of the LS Group family/relatives sold a 6.3% stake in LS Eco Energy Ltd (229640 KS) for about 70 billion won in after-hours trading.
There is an increasing probability that this could lead to these insiders purchasing more shares of LS Corp to defend their controlling stake of the company from the Hoban Group.
Hoban Group is likely to have acquired more than 3% stake in LS Corp. If so, it can request to inspect LS Corp’s books and convene a shareholders’ meeting.

Buy 99 Shares of Lennar (LEN) – Special Situation Odd Lot

Lennar (LEN) announced an exchange offer on October 10, 2025 whereby investors can exchange their LEN shares for shares of Millrose Properties (MRP), Lennar’s land bank spin-off.
To incentivize the exchange, LEN investors will receive $106.43 of value in MRP shares for every $100 of value in LEN shares.
I expect the exchange offer to be oversubscribed, However, there is an odd lot provision such that any L:EN shareholders with 99 shares or less (odd lot provision) will not be prorated.

Daiichi a Possible Target for Arcs Takeover as Gains in Hokkaido

By Michael Causton

Ito-Yokado’s withdrawal from the Hokkaido market has proven a windfall for affiliated chain, Daiichi.
The Hokkaido supermarket has already opened new stores in sites vacated by Ito-Yokado – the only difficulty has been finding ways to fill the larger spaces.
Now Arcs is waiting in the wings in case Daiichi becomes available for takeover – Arcs’ chairman owns 1% of Daiichi personally.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October’25 Report

Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.

Analyzing Bel Fuse Share Class Arbitrage: BELFB Premium Over BELFA and AI-Driven Market Dynamics

BELFB trades at a 25% premium to BELFA; both share classes have identical economic rights but different voting and dividend structures.
The BELFB premium may be influenced by AI data center excitement, better liquidity, and recent credit facility amendments.
Share class arbitrage lacks a clear catalyst and timeline; previous price gaps closed within a year or longer.

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Oct 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window
Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble

Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling

The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add

Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.
CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break

By Gaudenz Schneider

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.
Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC’s earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.

Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Trade the 2028 SLB. Long value in Accor’s €700MM 2.375% SLB due in 2028. Monetise price moves around verification and vendor updates.
High 2025 miss risk. 2024 levels imply steep absolute cuts required in one year. Intensity improved, absolutes did not. Scope 3 looks hardest to meet.
Know the catalyst path. Observation occurs at YE 2025, with reporting and assurance arriving in 1Q 2026. Markets usually react when verification and data vendor fields update.

Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase

By Michael Causton

Intermestic, operator of the eyewear retailer, Zoff, has acquired Megane Super for ¥19 billion.
WIth 620 stores, the combined new eyewear chain is larger than JINS, but the latter still has higher sales, at least for now.
Zoff will use Megane Super’s expertise to take more share in the contact lens market but will also use its new scale to expand its own chain.

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Oct 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains
SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb

Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization

By Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised US$411m from its US IPO in April 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025

LakeShore Biopharma’s delisting from Nasdaq to OTC caused forced selling, impacting merger arbitrage spread, with 18% upside potential.
Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a 40-50% spread.
Currency Exchange International’s closure of Canadian business and potential US uplisting could enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves

Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains

By Gaudenz Schneider

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts’ expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.
Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions

Lennar Corporation plans to divest its remaining 20% stake in Millrose Properties to shareholders with a 6.38% premium.
Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at a 0.00687x ratio.
Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with potential privatization efforts by founder Dickson Poon.

Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb

Defined downside: OPAP trades ~2% below its €19.04 exit anchor, with a 5% cap limiting redemption but offering a clear floor for risk-arbitrage positioning.
Catalyst carry: €0.50 dividend in November plus €0.80 post-close yield 6–7% carry into H1 2026 completion, reinforcing positive IRR on a short-duration special situation.
Governance overlay: KKCG’s 85% voting control speeds execution and capital access but embeds a governance discount; key to watch: listing venue, board independence, and dividend discipline.

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Oct 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 November
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
Falcon Oil & Gas Merger with TBN: High-Risk Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Borrow Concerns and Tax Implications
Treasury Burn Story Hits a Milestone—Lotte Serves up the Ruling Party’s Playbook at the Hearing
A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again
Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.

Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares

On 13 October, Value Partners has come out in support of Samyang Holdings (000070 KS)’s equity spin-off plan but on the condition that the company must cancel its treasury shares.
Value Partners believes Samyang Holdings is currently severely undervalued, trading at a P/B of 0.34x. A shareholders meeting for Samyang Holdings is scheduled for 14 October.
We have a positive view of this equity spin-off. Our NAV valuation of Samyang Holdings suggests an implied price per share of 127,138 won (28.6% higher than current price).

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 November

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$9.25 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 November.
I previously argued that the vote carries risk due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.
However, the risk has been lowered due to Bin Yuan and LYFE no longer being shareholders, along with the peer derating. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 3.7%/22.0%.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

Falcon Oil & Gas Merger with TBN: High-Risk Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Borrow Concerns and Tax Implications

Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell its assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at 0.00687 ratio.
The merger’s spread fluctuates due to hedging concerns and potential TBN stock decline to pre-announcement levels.
Lamesa Holdings’ shares are excluded from distribution due to sanctions, affecting the stock exchange ratio calculation.

Treasury Burn Story Hits a Milestone—Lotte Serves up the Ruling Party’s Playbook at the Hearing

In yesterday’s hearing, Lotte skipped alternatives and signaled treasury burn, seen as bowing to political pressure, sparking a notable NXT post-market reaction.
The mandatory treasury burn story hinges on major local holdings and their follow-through. Lotte’s hearing gave a live read, boosting the narrative’s traction in the near-term local market.
Traders’ takeaway: holding cos with large treasury stakes could outperform, signaling a chance for outright longs, relative weight plays, or NAV discount tightening—time to get more aggressive locally.

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again

“Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions