Event-Driven

On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative.
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85.

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG

By Venkata D Ravi Kumar Dasari, CFA

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.

Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals

The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share. Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

The reason why the president’s office is considering temporarily easing bank–industry separation is to facilitate funding for the 150T won National Growth Fund.
Samsung and SK may form bank-backed JVs to fund AI semis, HBM, and data center projects, enabling flexible capital deployment across the AI semiconductor ecosystem.
Chaebol holdings with direct AI exposure could gain smoother access to big-ticket funding, potentially sparking continued aggressive short-term flows around Samsung and SK holdings post-Chuseok.

Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)

By Richard Howe

On October 1, 2025, Corteva Biosciences (CTVA) announced that it plans to break up into two public companies.
The logic behind the spin-off announcement is that the SpinCo has higher margins and better growth potential.
For example, the SpinCo has grown EBITDA at a 16% CAGR since 2020 and has a 26% EBITDA margin.

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Oct 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)‘s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don’t short the eve of earnings.
Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK) trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Seven West Media (SWM AU)‘s, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), and Spindex Industries (SPE SP).
Key updates/news took place on ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?
Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans
Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?

As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples.

Acquisition of SK D&D by Hahn & Co + Tender Offer and Delisting Plans

On 1 October, it was reported in the local media that Hahn & Co (is acquiring the management rights of SK D&D Co Ltd (210980 KS).
This tender offer is not likely to be successful. Less than 1/3 of the 6.96 million shares that are up for tender offer could be sold by the existing shareholders.
We believe that the majority of the remaining investors in SK D&D want higher tender offer price.

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

By Gaudenz Schneider

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.
Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

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Oct 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?
Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Hope and Despair as the MBO Close Extended
LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows
Sammaan Capital: Is Abu Dhabi’s $1.06 Billion Bet the Start of a New Era?
I-Net Corp (9600 JP): ORIX Corp (8591 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY2,530
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Plummets, Rebounds, Activist Rebuts, KeePer Lab Holds, MBO Extends
Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP): Daiseki (9793 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,850
FONAR Privatization Proposal: 13% Spread, Potential Price Increase, and Strategic Family Control
Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Acquisitions, Tender Offers, and More

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4.
Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling.

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking.
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of “certain office space” at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Hope and Despair as the MBO Close Extended

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced that the close of the MBO offer period has been extended from 2 to 17 October. There are two key takeaways from the announcement.
First, KeePer has not yet tendered its shares, despite providing an irrevocable. Second, the non-KeePer acceptances have increased from 6,108,200 shares on September 18 to 6,598,149 shares on October 2.
The chances that KeePer accepts the Effissimo offer have increased. However, the current non-KeePer acceptances of the MBO make it highly challenging for Effissimo to succeed. Take profits.

LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.
The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

Sammaan Capital: Is Abu Dhabi’s $1.06 Billion Bet the Start of a New Era?

Sammaan Capital’s Board approved a preferential issue to Avenir Investment RSC Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants.
The strategic inflow from the well-capitalized, sovereign-linked IHC provides a massive de-risking event, validates Sammaan’s new-book strategy, and signals a powerful new stream of capital flows into Indian HFC/NBFC space.
The scale, strategic nature, and pricing of the deal position Sammaan for a significant re-rating, shifting the investment thesis from asset quality clean-up to funded growth.

I-Net Corp (9600 JP): ORIX Corp (8591 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY2,530

I Net Corp (9600 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Orix Corp (8591 JP) at JPY2,530, a 53.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
Despite the high required minority tendering rate, an attractive offer facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Plummets, Rebounds, Activist Rebuts, KeePer Lab Holds, MBO Extends

On 25 September, with the stock trading just below Effissimo’s terms, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board came out AGAINST the Effissimo proposal 66% higher than the MBO terms.
The fine print said that the Soft99 deal had enough shares to get over the line assuming Keeper Labs tendered according to agreement due to Board Support. Shares plummeted.
Effissimo issued a stunning rebuttal which showed Board incompetence/negligence, possible breach of fiduciary duty. Today, MBO Bidco extended, the stock popped, but details are key.

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP): Daiseki (9793 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,850

By Special Situation Investments

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP) at JPY1,850, a 54.3% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents a three-year high.
The low required minority tendering rate facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

FONAR Privatization Proposal: 13% Spread, Potential Price Increase, and Strategic Family Control

FONAR’s privatization offer at $17.25/share by controlling shareholders has a 13% spread, with potential for a price increase.
The company, trading at 5x EBITDA, holds $54m net cash, covering a significant portion of the buyout cost.
FONAR’s core diagnostic centers generate 92% of revenue; the unprofitable MRI manufacturing segment is operationally integrated.

Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Acquisitions, Tender Offers, and More

By Special Situation Investments

Chorus Aviation is repurchasing 8% of shares at C$23.00–C$25.00, offering C$45 risk-free upside; tender expires November 10.
STAAR Surgical’s largest shareholder opposes Alcon’s $28/share acquisition, potentially forcing a higher bid before October 23 meeting.
Forian’s $2.10/share go-private proposal by a founder-led consortium is under review, with shares trading at offer price.

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Oct 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad
LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset
GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life
RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad

JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…

LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset

LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.

GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life

The GST Council’s decision to exempt all individual life and health insurance premiums from GST (0% vs. 18% earlier), effective September 22, 2025, is a landmark affordability move.
The immediate drop in premiums for products like term and ULIPs is expected to drive a significant surge in demand, though insurers like ICICI Prudential will lose ITC on expenses.
While the volume boost from higher affordability is a major long-term catalyst, immediate margin compression from ITC loss on commissions will require operational efficiency and pricing recalibration for ICICI Prudential.

RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?

RateGain Travel Technologies has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire US-based, AI-powered travel marketing platform Sojern for an upfront consideration of $250 million.
The acquisition is a bold move to create a scaled, AI-first digital marketing and distribution platform, significantly boosting RateGain’s MarTech business and nearly tripling its revenue/EBITDA run-rate (pre-synergies).
The strategic upside of owning the full guest acquisition-to-retention cycle justifies the blended financing structure and the integration risk of two large, geographically dispersed travel tech companies.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.

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Oct 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares
StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.
Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade
Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float
Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy
Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush
Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive
Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares

There is an end of a lock-up period for 22.1 million shares (34% of outstanding shares) for Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) starting 5 October 2025.
This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
Doosan Robotics’ valuation multiples remain extremely high. We remain BEARISH on Doosan Robotics.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.

Melco International Development (200 HK) is now trading at a premium to NAV for the first time since announcing a one-for-two rights issue.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade

By Sanghyun Park

Fiduciary duty expansion gains teeth once the third-stage treasury cancellation passes—setting up Class A prefs as prime re-rating, discount-compression plays in local flows.
Fiduciary duty expansion gives Class A prefs new legal backing, making them standout re-rating plays with discount-compression potential, unlike Class B with built-in dividend protections.
Hyundai Motor 1P vs 2PB offers a tight but tradable setup, while CJ Corp and AmoreH show wider A/B gaps, even after adjusting convertible premiums.

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.

Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy

Television broadcaster and publisher Seven West Media (SWM AU) has entered into a Scheme with radio network play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).
SXL will issue 0.1552 new shares for every SWM. Should the Scheme get up, SXL will hold 50.1% of the combined entity and SWM the remainder.
Kerry Stokes backed SGH Limited (SGH AU) will hold ~20% in the merged entity. But not all shareholders are on board with the Offer. Trading through terms.

Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.
Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.
Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained >+1% premium for borrow tightening.

Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

DuPont (DD) is set to spin off 100% of its Electronics business, Qnity (Q), in early November.
Qnity is positioned to grow in line with the semiconductor industry, which is expected to expand at a mid-single-digit CAGR.
A large portion of its portfolio consists of consumable products, supporting strong profitability with EBITDA margins around 30% (inclusive of ~$100 million in public company costs).

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

By Gaudenz Schneider

Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.

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Sep 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo
Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?
Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?
Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)
KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts.
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.

Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?

The increased purchase of Mirae Asset Life Insurance shares by the Mirae Asset Group companies could be a PRELUDE to a potential voluntary delisting of Mirae Asset Life Insurance.
We believe that there is a relatively reasonable probability of the Mirae Asset Group taking Mirae Asset Life Insurance private in the next 1-2 years.
Mirae Asset Life Insurance is trading at only 0.4x P/B. Treasury shares represent 26.3% of its total outstanding shares.

Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?

OneSource Specialty Pharma has approved a Composite Scheme of Arrangement to acquire Steriscience’s EuropeanCDMO and Brooks Steriscience’s Indian anti-infective assets.
The transaction adds approximately $107 million in projected FY27 revenue, significantly diversifying the portfolio, reducing single-site risk, raising the consolidated FY28 revenue outlook to over $500 million.
While the acquisition multiples appear steep for subscale assets, if management successfully delivers on ambitious growth targets, the transaction could position OneSource among the most competitive players in CDMO landspace.

Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)

By Richard Howe

This week, I published a deep dive into Sony’s upcoming spin-off of Sony Financial (SFGI/8729).
I will be watching the spin-off closely and hoping for selling pressure.
KBR, Inc. (KBR) announced on September 24, 2025 that it plans to spin off its Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment into a separate publicly traded company.

KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

EU Commission and Austria/Belgium cleared. Remaining approvals: US HSR and FDI in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain. After these, UK High Court sanction and order registration are gating steps.
At 4,088p versus 4,175p consideration, gross spread is 2.13%. Expected annualized IRR ~4–6% assuming Jan–Mar 2026 cash. June entry at £32.04 still screens exceptional, ~39–51% annualized, settlement-dependent on current guidance.
Maintain exposure; monitor court timetable and residual filings pace. Dividend ex-date is 2 October 2025. Outcome probability remains high; timing within Q1 drives IRR sensitivity and settlement-month dispersion for investors.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board
Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO
ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).

Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43

Spindex Industries (SPE SP) disclosed a privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Chairman and PrimeMovers Equity at S$1.43 per share. Including the FY2025 dividend, the total offer is S$1.45.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is light in comparison to peer and precedent transaction multiples. It is also below book value.
The offer has not been declared final. However, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership lowers the vote risk.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board

“Beautiful Skew” showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO

Late Friday (26th September), precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex’s controlling shareholder (74.95%).
The Tan’s are offering S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed, and a decade-high price. The Offer is backed by PE outfit PrimeMovers Equity.
Clean deal. No competing Offer will emerge. I estimate payment mid-Jan 2026.

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew’s Special Committee will provide “public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025“.

RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.
Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.
Naspers (NPN SJ)‘s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

I tally 39 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet (PBH AU), Oneconnect (6638 HK), Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).

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Sep 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
Waaree Energies Under US Scrutiny: A Solar Powerhouse Faces Tariff Probe
Chorus Aviation’s Odd Lot Tender Offers Potential C$45 Upside for Tax-Exempt Investors Amid Share Buyback

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

Waaree Energies Under US Scrutiny: A Solar Powerhouse Faces Tariff Probe