Financials

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
• The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.

• Affirm Holdings, Inc. delivered a robust performance in its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, marking significant progress in several key areas.
• The company reported a record in key metrics, despite it not being the traditional peak quarter, indicating strong business momentum.
• Affirm’s growth is attributed to its continued focus on underwriting precision and consumer engagement, alongside significant contributions from its 0% APR products that are effectively attracting new customers and encouraging repeat usage.

• Klarna shares are set to start NYSE trading on 10 September; the issue price range implies a market capitalisation of USD12.8bn to USD13.6bn; we believe that its valuation looks underwhelming
• The Klarna IPO valuation versus its peers does, however, show Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we downgrade it to a sell; we upgrade Kakao Pay to a neutral from sell
• We keep PagSeguro, PayPal and Nexi on the buy list for their value credentials; we believe that PayPal is also the best value of the major BNPL players

• Aon plc, a global leader in insurance brokerage and consulting services, is undergoing strategic realignment that has reignited acquisition speculation.
• On September 3, 2025, the company confirmed it would divest the majority of its NFP wealth businesses—namely Wealthspire Advisors, Fiducient Advisors, and Newport Private Wealth—to private equity firm Madison Dearborn Partners for approximately $2.7 billion.
• The transaction, expected to close in late Q4, will yield around $2.2 billion in after-tax proceeds and remove $127 million in trailing twelve-month EBITDA from Aon’s books.

The Biotech Growth Trust (BIOG) is managed Geoff Hsu and Josh Golomb at leading global healthcare specialist OrbiMed. The trust provides access to the rapidly evolving biotech sector, seeking long-term capital appreciation by investing in high-quality biotech stocks across the market cap spectrum, with a bias towards smaller, emerging biotech companies. Since Q121, the trust has faced significant performance headwinds in what has been the industry’s largest and most prolonged drawdown. However, the managers remain confident that a stark disconnect exists between current valuations and the favourable fundamentals of the biotech sector. With industry innovation at an all-time high, a generally supportive regulatory environment and major pharma companies looking to bolster their pipelines ahead of a major patent cliff, which should spur M&A activity, now may be an opportune time for investors to consider the biotech sector.

• Coincheck Group N.V. is aggressively positioning itself as a leading global player in crypto financial services, and its latest strategic initiative could mark a turning point.
• Following a disappointing first quarter of fiscal 2026—where trading volumes dipped 33% QoQ and adjusted EBITDA turned negative—Coincheck announced its intent to acquire Aplo SAS, a regulated digital asset prime brokerage based in Paris.
• This acquisition, expected to close in October 2025, represents the company’s first major step into European markets and underscores its ambition to diversify beyond Japan.

• KRX plans to list KOSDAQ150 weekly options next month, likely October 27, and is lining up market makers to ensure two-way liquidity from day one.
• Early volumes for KOSDAQ150 weeklies will be thin, making MMs cautious, but some may step in despite risks.
• Early KOSDAQ150 weeklies could trigger spillover trades, as thin volumes and active MMs lead to IV–spot gaps, price dislocations, and triangular arbitrage opportunities.

• Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.
• The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. 
• I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

• Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange.
• Klarna is offering 34.3 million shares at $35 to $37 per share. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be able to raise $1.27 billion.
• Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Klarna IPO. 

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
• Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
• Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.

• In our latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd, we wrote: “The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally“. 
• The rally ended last week, as predicted: the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is falling this week,  it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.
• Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.

• BMPS raises terms to 2.533 BMPS shares plus €0.90 cash per Mediobanca share, waiving the two-thirds condition while retaining a 35% minimum—shifting sentiment to a modest, positive convergence setup.
• Timeline tight: board review this week; acceptance deadline 8 September; results and settlement mid-September unless terms change, which could trigger re-opening and push closing toward late September or early October.
• Best expression remains long Mediobanca, short 2.533× BMPS per share; a 1% BMPS move shifts implied consideration ~€0.19 (≈1% of MB), so maintain a disciplined hedge into catalysts and headlines.

• The bank is starting to perform both absolutely and relative to both the Topix and the Megabanks
• The core thesis is intact as  Net Interest Income improves from a changed asset mix 
• The move into digital currencies is groundbreaking for this institution

• QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.
• QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.
• Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).

Halyk Bank delivered a strong 26.1% y-o-y increase in net profit to KZT253.6bn in Q225, leading to a healthy annualised return on equity (ROE) of 32.2% (up from 31.7% in Q224). Loan book growth moderated in H125, with gross loans to individuals and legal entities increasing by 4.3% and 1.4% versus end-2024, respectively. Management still guides to a solid FY25 net loan portfolio growth of 15–20%, slightly down from 17–22% guided previously, as retail loan growth expectations have been slightly reduced to 15–20%, from 20–25% previously. Halyk’s operating expenses rose by 30.7% y-o-y in Q225, mostly due to an increase in salaries and employee benefits (with a contribution from the recently launched long-term incentive programme) and the expansion of Halyk’s IT headcount to drive its digitalisation agenda. Its cost-to-income ratio (CIR) came in at a low 17.8% in Q225, with management expecting 17–19% in FY25. Halyk’s robust capital ratios of over 18% at end-June 2025 encouraged management to recommend a second dividend from FY24 net income of KZT21.0 per share, which, together with the first payment, represents a 60% payout ratio and at the current share price implies a healthy 14% yield.

• On August 7, MIGALO HOLDINGS Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2026 (April–June) earnings results.
• Net sales increased 4.4% YoY to JPY 14,272 mn, and operating profit increased 23.1% YoY to JPY 975 mn.
• As shown below, progress toward the Company’s full-year forecast got off to a roughly on-schedule start, with 23.8% of net sales and 34.8% of operating profit achieved.

• Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
• The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price).  Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million). 
• This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

• On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
• ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently. 
• The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain. 

• Kyoto Financial has equity holdings relative to market cap of 135%, well above its larger cap Japanese peer banks, and amounting to a market value of over JPY1.1trillion
• Management has stated that it is targeting JPY100bn+ of disposals in terms of market value by March 2029, but we believe that the market expected more
• Sizeable disposals of equity holdings is Kyoto’s primary source of prospective shareholder value creation; aside from this, its fundamental attractions are limited and so we downgrade Kyoto to a neutral

• Tata Capital Limited is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.
• Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) or AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.
• CRH (CRH US) recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.

• Klarna will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and is scheduled to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
• Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025 increased by $199 million, or 15% (17% on a like-for-like basis), compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.
• A “buy-now, pay-later” competitor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM US), has been trading extremely well since April.

• The Philippines is on a strong economic recovery, supported by supportive macroeconomic landscape and expansion of Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO)
• The office market is also recovering strongly, supported by BPO demand.  We think it is a structural fundamental improvement, not a simple cyclical recovery
• We LONG Ayala Land.  It is currently at 9.7x PE, versus 10-year average of 20.4x.

• Gemini will offer 16.67 million shares at $17-$19 and is scheduled to debut on Friday, September 12th.
• The underwriters have reserved up to 1,666,667 shares of Class A common stock, or 10% of the shares offered by this prospectus, for sale through a directed share program. 
• A $400 million growth equity round valued Gemini at $7.1 billion in November 2021. This funding round is significantly below that higher round. 

• Figure Solutions is offering 26.3 million shares at $18-$20 and will debut on Thursday, September 11th.
• Duquesne Family Office LLC has indicated an interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of $50 million of shares as an anchor order.
• Figure has grown quickly and profitably, with net income of $29 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, for the six months ended June 30, 2025.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
• The US market was closed for Labour Day yesterday.
• Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in August declined 18% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m to CNY 207 bn (albeit narrowing from -24% y-o-y in July), according to CRIC.

• Today’s FSS IFRS17 ruling is an accounting fix (equity vs. liability), not the Samsung Life Law, which is a regulatory cap on affiliate stakes based on market value.
• The FSS ruling signals Samsung Life doesn’t need to treat its Samsung Electronics stake as a forced-sale liability, lowering near-term sale risk.
• This eases the overhang, delays potential stake moves, and reinforces the relative underperformance setup on Samsung C&T highlighted in earlier posts.

• With Maynilad Water Services Inc.’s largest IPO in the Philippines, slated for October 2025, targeting up to ₱45.8 billion in total raise, PSE’s IPO pipeline will exceed ₱ 200 billion.
• It represents a substantial >142% YoY increase over 2024 (where IPO pipeline was ₱82.4 billion), with the majority of it back-end loaded (pipeline completed till Aug FY25 ₱70 billion) 
• Trading at 15x FY25 PE, with 18% of the market cap in cash, a 6% dividend yield, and multiple growth levers in the future, this is a stock to explore.

• Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.
• A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.
• $13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.

• Yorkville Acquisition (YORKU) and Renatus Tactical Acquisition (RTAC) are SPACs with ties to the current administration and crypto space.
• Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) faces a legal battle with Cosette Pharmaceuticals over a merger, with a hearing set for September 22.
• Lifeway Foods (LWAY) is under pressure from activists for a sale to Danone, with a standstill agreement until September 15.

• We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated
• We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations
• We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group

• Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks with a S$33 million inflow, reversing a prior S$53 million outflow.
• United Overseas Bank led share buybacks with S$54.7 million total consideration, purchasing 500,000 shares at S$35.30 each.
• iFAST Corporation’s 1HFY25 profit before tax rose 32.7% to S$50.4 million, driven by iGB’s profitability.

• The report highlights how Somnia is addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered blockchain gaming — from network congestion and unpredictable gas fees to poor user experience and security risks.
• While most blockchains struggle to support complex, consumer-grade apps, Somnia introduces an EVM-compatible network specifically optimized for gaming and other high-throughput use cases.
• By rethinking infrastructure at the base layer, Somnia enables scalability, predictable costs, and seamless UX, laying the foundation for richer onchain applications.

• CICT’s DPU rose 3.5% to 5.62 cents, with leverage and debt costs reduced to 37.9% and 3.4%.
• FCT’s committed occupancy reached 99.9%, with tenant sales up 4.4% and leverage increased to 40.4%.
• Suntec REIT’s Gross Revenue and NPI grew 3.3% and 5.6%, with DPU increasing 3.7% to 3.155 cents.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China’s bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently four pair trade opportunities across two markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• dLocal Limited’s latest earnings report for Q2 2025 highlights a period of strong financial performance, business expansion, and strategic enhancements, although it is tempered by certain macroeconomic risks and strategic decisions impacting the bottom line.
• On the positive side, the company posted record results across its key financial metrics.
• Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached an all-time high of $9.2 billion, marking a 53% year-over-year increase.

• StoneCo Ltd., a financial technology firm focusing on financial services for micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMBs) in Brazil, recently underwent significant strategic shifts aligned with its core focus.
• The company announced the divestiture of its software assets, including the sale of Linx to TOTVS and SimplesVet to PetLove, aiming to reinforce its focus on payments, banking, and credit, which represent 90% of its total addressable market (TAM).
• With an estimated total value unlocked from these divestitures exceeding BRL 4 billion, the company intends to allocate excess capital in line with shareholder value maximization strategies, primarily through share buybacks if no value-accretive opportunities are found.

• Beike (BEKE) reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAA op. profit and GAAP net income (2.5%), (43%) and (3.0%) vs. our est. 
• Since a strong start in C1Q25, both new and existing home sales growth have trended down after early March, against a weak 2024. 
• We cut TP by US$1 to US$24 and maintain BUY.

• Context: The Macquarie Group (MQG AU) over National Australia Bank (NAB AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The pair is trading just at the border of the 2 standard deviation threshold which triggers the trade open signal. Monitor to find a good entry point.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• OnEMI Technology Solutions (1553346D IN) is looking to raise about US$172m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Financial, HSBC, Nuvama, SBI Caps.
• Also known as Kissht, its products include personal loans for salaried and self-employed individuals for consumption and business needs, and loans against property for asset-owning MSMEs and salaried individuals.
• As of March 31, 2025, Kissht had 53.23m registered users, 9.16m customers, and INR 40,866m in AUM.

• The UST curve twisted flatter yesterday, partly unwinding Wednesday’s steepening move.
• The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.63%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 3 bps to 4.21%.
• Equities climbed on the back of upward revisions to the US Q2/25 GDP. 

• Block, Inc.’s latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025 provided key insights into the company’s ongoing strategies, progress, and operational challenges.
• Showing signs of a return to growth mode, the company reported a gross profit of $2.5 billion, up 14% year-over-year, and an adjusted operating income of $550 million, reflecting a 38% increase.
• This indicates an expansion in margins to a new peak of 22%.

• Maple is establishing itself one of the largest on-chain credit venues, with deposits locked in at $2.1 bn and US$1.24 bn lent.
• Pool delegates have skin in the game and underwriting lets pre-qualified trading firms borrow at 30-80 % lower collateral ratios than market while keeping lenders senior and over-collateralised.
• Pool delegates in a ramp phase to build client books. Structured credit structures are planned.

• Metaplanet launches international equity raise of up to 555m shares, potentially almost doubling share count, targeting approximately ¥130b in proceeds subject to pricing and demand.
• Proceeds earmarked primarily for Bitcoin purchases, potentially adding 4,800–26,800 BTC to treasury holdings, accelerating NAV growth and reinforcing positioning as a Bitcoin balance sheet company.
• Suspension of 20th–22nd series stock acquisition rights through September ensures offering stability and clears path for subsequent preferred share issuance capacity.

• Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 23.7% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
• It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
• The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and Green Dot locations starting with Walmart in the US.

• Solana technology pioneer SOL Strategies (CBOE- CA: HODL) announced its 2Q25 earnings, with revenue of C$3.0 million from validators and staking.
• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $796,000 versus ($1.56) million in 3QFY24. SOL Strategies saw a realized loss of $546,000 on dispositions of cryptocurrencies in the quarter.
• The company had C$3.2 million in cash at the end of the quarter.