Financials

ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) has lost nearly 18% of its stock value since February 7th. The stock has been falling for 4 weeks, our model indicates a very oversold condition.
SoftBank’s has a number of strategic investments and initiatives that make it an attractive investment.
Below, we outline key fundamental factors that align with our quantitative model’s view, suggesting the stock is oversold and could be a compelling buy at its current price.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) looks to raise about US$712m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Axis, BoFA, ICICI, IIFL, JMFin, MS, SBI.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India. KRT covered 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per CBRE report.
The portfolio includes 6 city-center offices and 24 business parks/centers. These assets are spread across 6 cities — Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gurugram, and GIFT City.

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

By Victor Galliano

We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil
We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value
Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Nickel Industries, Vedanta Resources, Bharti Airtel
In the US, JOLTS job openings increased slightly to 7.74 mn (7.60 mn e / 7.51 mn revised p) in January, with the job openings rate little changed m-o-m at 4.6%. Layoffs declined for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since June 2024.
Overall, the JOLTS report showed that the labour market was steady in January, albeit demand for labour could soften in the months ahead.

Assura’s Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.
Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.
KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.

CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): 1H FY07/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY07/25, the company reported sales of JPY22.6bn (-3.9% YoY) and business profit of JPY3.1bn (+124.0% YoY).
The company resolved to support a Tender Offer by SMFL MIRAI Partners and plans to delist its stock.
As of end-January 2025, floor space under management reached approximately 6.6mn sqm with high occupancy rates.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 12

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Indusind Bank, SK Inc, Bank Of Baroda, Tejon Ranch , Yuexiu Property and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons
Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling
IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next
Asia Real Estate Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Singapore buying Sydney office for $70M.
IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns
Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well
TRC: Potential Upcoming Catalysts Include Opening of First Terra Vista Units
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

By David Blennerhassett

When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions.
We’re half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead.
Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It’s just a question of timing.

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next

By Brian Freitas

The Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock was down 27% yesterday following the announcement of Derivatives Portfolio losses that have wiped out 2.35% of equity.
Foreign investors were big sellers in the last 3 months of 2024. That led to increased foreign room, leading to an index upweight in February and index inclusion in March.
The drop in market cap and free float market cap will see Indusind Bank (IIB IN) deleted from the S&P BSE SENSEX Index in June and the NIFTY Index in September.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Singapore buying Sydney office for $70M.

Cambridge, a Singapore-based firm, purchases a Sydney office block for $70M from a former Tysan boss, expanding its real estate portfolio
Hong Kong Land reports a significant increase in losses, totaling $1.4B, attributed to challenges within its Central Portfolio
M&G Real Estate invests $62M in student housing in Melbourne, Australia, highlighting their focus on the Australian real estate market. Warburg Pincus forms a partnership with SK Group to develop Korean senior living facilities, tapping into the growing demand for elderly care in South Korea.

IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns

By Nimish Maheshwari

IndusInd Bank recently disclosed a significant accounting discrepancy in its derivatives portfolio, estimated to impact its net worth by INR 1,580 crore (~2.35%).
The issue pertains to internal trades executed over the past 7–8 years, now identified through a detailed internal review initiated following regulatory changes.
This development, when viewed alongside the abrupt CFO exit, regulatory pushback on CEO tenure, and existing operational challenges, raises concerns around internal controls, risk governance, and management credibility.

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

By Akshat Shah

Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.
The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.

TRC: Potential Upcoming Catalysts Include Opening of First Terra Vista Units

By Zacks Small Cap Research

The convenience and affordability of Terra Vista housing, as well as proximity to LA, are expected to drive demand from TRCC employees and others.
The development of the nearby Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Tejon is another likely driver of demand for affordable housing from its employees.
Upon completion, Terra Vista at Tejon is expected to be the largest rental community in Kern County.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Adani Energy Solutions
In the US, treasuries climbed on safe-haven demand and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, amid growing concerns over the US economy. The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 12 bps to 3.89%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.22%. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 81 bps of rate cuts this year, with the first decrease expected in June.
Equities sank on rising economic uncertainty, given rising trade tensions and after US President Donald Trump’s comments that the economy is facing a “period of transition” this year. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% to 5,615, while the Nasdaq slid 4.0% to 17,468.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 11

Daily Brief Financials: Insignia Financial, S&P/ASX 200, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Longfor Properties, Mgic Investment, Lincoln National, F&G Annuities & Life , Aflac Inc, SK Inc, EURO/US DOLLAR and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out
S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance
Seeking Value and Safety in HK/China: SHKP 16 HK
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
MGIC Investment Corporation: Will Their Capital Management Strategy Pay Off?
How Is Lincoln National Corporation Shifting Business Mix Towards Spread-Based Products!
F&G Annuities Life: Is Their Expansion in Reinsurance and Offshore Operations A Game Changer In The Making?
Aflac Incorporated: Will Its Reinsurance & Capital Efficiency Help Up Its Game?
Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Mar-2025): Warburg Pincus teams with SK Group for Korean senior living.
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – February 26, 2025

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

On 7 March, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.
The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.

S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.
The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
As posted by Brian Freitas there has been 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.

Seeking Value and Safety in HK/China: SHKP 16 HK

MSCI China has rallied 19% YTD, outperforming DM and EM by 18% and 14% respectively. We think it makes sense to look at China and Hong Kong again
Part of the rally is driven by AI optimism. In terms of fund flow, we are seeing increasing south-bound fund flow to HK equity market at a fast pace
We think Sun Hung Kai Properties, which is a proxy for Hong Kong, may benefit and play the catch up game on the back of very attractive valuation

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Melco Resorts, Sands China, Tata Motors
In the US, February nonfarm payrolls increased to 151 k (160 k e / 125 k revised p), albeit the figure came in slightly below estimates. Moreover, the January number was revised downwards to 125 k (143 k p), with the two-month revision at negative 2 k (+100 k p). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% (4.0% e / 4.0% p). The average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.1% e / 3.9% revised p).
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that the US central bank is in no rush to reduce rates. He said: “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place”, adding that “sentiment readings have not been a good predictor of consumption growth in recent years”.

MGIC Investment Corporation: Will Their Capital Management Strategy Pay Off?

The recent results from MGIC Investment Corporation for the fourth quarter of 2024 highlight both strengths and potential challenges within the company.
With a net income of $185 million for Q4 and a 14% annualized return on equity, MGIC showcases financial stability.
In contrast, for the full year, net income stood at $763 million, a moderate increase from $730 million in the prior year.

How Is Lincoln National Corporation Shifting Business Mix Towards Spread-Based Products!

Lincoln Financial Group has reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showcasing a blend of strategic progress and challenges that reflect its ongoing transformation.
A key highlight of the results is the marked increase in adjusted operating income, which reached its highest level in three years amidst a backdrop of strategic repositioning and capital strengthening efforts.
In 2024, the company successfully raised its RBC ratio to over 430% by year-end.

F&G Annuities Life: Is Their Expansion in Reinsurance and Offshore Operations A Game Changer In The Making?

Fidelity & Guaranty Life (F&G) has reported a robust performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
The company achieved record gross sales of $15.3 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year, driven by strong demand across its individual annuity and life solutions segments.
Retail channel sales reached a record $12 billion, a 20% gain, highlighting the significant traction in its Fixed Index Annuity (FIA), Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity (MYGA), and Indexed Universal Life (IUL) products.

Aflac Incorporated: Will Its Reinsurance & Capital Efficiency Help Up Its Game?

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aflac Incorporated reported strong earnings, with net earnings per diluted share rising by 23.8% to $9.63, and adjusted earnings per diluted share increasing by 15.7% to $7.21.
This positive performance was largely driven by the company’s operations in Japan, which accounted for over 70% of pretax adjusted earnings.
Aflac Japan enjoyed a stable premium persistency rate of 93.4% and reported a 15.5% growth in pretax adjusted earnings.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Mar-2025): Warburg Pincus teams with SK Group for Korean senior living.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Warburg Pincus and SK Group have joined forces to launch a new senior living venture in Korea.
KKR, APG, Gaw, and Alyssa will be participating in discussions about residential trends on MTD TV Forum.
Alyssa has extended its partnership with Dai-Ichi Life for the management of 669 Japanese apartments.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – February 26, 2025

During the period under consideration, i.e. January 27th, 2025 to February 26th, 2025, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
In the beginning, it faced a general decrease, until February 10th where the pair faced a sharp increase.
After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady upward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at almost the same level as of January 27th.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 10

Daily Brief Financials: Nikkei 225, China Vanke (H), ESR Group , British Land Co, Soundwill Holdings, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia
A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet
British Land: Buy on Improving Industry Fundamentals
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share
The Week Ahead in Options – 10 March
Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 03–07): Implied Volatility Climbs as Market Extends Decline
Halyk Bank (HSBK LI)
Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 04 – 07): Market Stabilizes After Sharp Drop

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

By Brian Freitas

We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta.

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Proto Corp (4298 JP).

British Land: Buy on Improving Industry Fundamentals

British Land is an office and retail landlord in UK. Around 60% of its assets are campus/offices, with all assets located in UK
We think the underling retail and office market are showing solid recovery, which will support British Land key operating business
British Land also sees capital recycling as an important pillar, including dividend, balance sheet management, and M&As to drive shareholders’ returns

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share

By David Blennerhassett

After small-cap property developer Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer by way of Scheme.
And that is what unfolded. Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, are Offering $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, a 62.84% premium to undisturbed.
That’s still a whopping 87.66% discount to the most recent NAV (30th June 2024). But what are the options for minorities (apart from the headcount test)? And terms are final.

The Week Ahead in Options – 10 March

By Gaudenz Schneider

US steel and aluminum tariffs (effective 12 March US time) will take effect on March 13 across the Asia-Pacific region. Volatility can be expected in Japan, South Korea, India, China.
Major quarterly derivatives expirations will occur on March 13 in Japan (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, Stocks), South Korea (KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, Stocks), and India (BSE Stock Futures and Options).
Earnings announcements for AIA Group (1299 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK/LI US) are scheduled for March 14, while India’s markets will be closed that day for the Holi holiday.

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 03–07): Implied Volatility Climbs as Market Extends Decline

By John Ley

Nikkei breaks lower, USD/JPY and trade tensions weighing on the market.
Implied volatility rose as the market declined. We discuss implications of current spot levels that is dominated by Put open interest.
Historic volatility continues to lag implied vol, we provide visuals on the extent of the lag.

Halyk Bank (HSBK LI)

By Michael Fritzell

Kazakhstan is a landlocked country right between Russia and China. It’s wealthier than most realize, with a great amount of natural resources such as oil & gas and uranium.
Thanks to resource extractions and favorable demographics, GDP per capita has grown rapidly.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of that growth has been Halyk Bank – the country’s leading commercial bank.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 04 – 07): Market Stabilizes After Sharp Drop

By John Ley

Kospi takes a breather this week after last Friday’s sell-off to trade in a narrow range.
Short-Term volatility eases in trade shortened week pulling implied vol down.
We highlight the dynamic between implied and historic volatility and discuss whether long or short volatility strategies have been the most effective this year.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 09

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Soundwill Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

By Travis Lundy

The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way “the right pattern” would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
Last time was a “second IPO” and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float.
Pricing is Monday. It hasn’t moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 08

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Klarna, Central Pattana Pub, KKR & Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook
Klarna: IPO Next Month? US Foreign Listing Limits Index Inclusion
Central Pattana: Thailand’s Largest Retail Property Developer to Ride on Domestic & Tourist Recovery
Asia Real Estate Tracker (07-Mar-2025): KKR sells Seiyu to Trial Holdings for $2.5B.

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB’s trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.

Klarna: IPO Next Month? US Foreign Listing Limits Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Klarna is anticipated to file for a US IPO next week and go public next month looking to raise ~$1bn at a valuation of ~$15bn.
Klarna is expected to be added to one US index at the June 2025 review if its primary asset/revenue location is US and its listed shares are non-ADRs.
Klarna is expected to be added to one Global index at the December 2025 review if its listed shares are non-ADRs and passes the fcap threshold.

Central Pattana: Thailand’s Largest Retail Property Developer to Ride on Domestic & Tourist Recovery

Central Pattana is Thailand’s largest retail property developer that operates its own ecosystem across retail, office, residential and hotel
We think Central Pattana has maintained sound and solid capital management strategies to drive shareholders returns, including increasing dividend payout, de-leveraging as well as M&As
The macro outlook for Thailand is mixed, but we think post-covid tourism is undergoing recovery and this will support CPN’s key operating businesses

Asia Real Estate Tracker (07-Mar-2025): KKR sells Seiyu to Trial Holdings for $2.5B.

KKR has sold Seiyu to Trial Holdings for $2.5 billion, marking a significant deal in the retail industry.
Real estate firm Savills has appointed Mitsui Fudosan veteran Eiichiro Onozawa to head its Japan business.
70% of Senior Directors express confidence in data centres, despite concerns over a worsening talent shortage in the sector.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 07

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Hang Seng Index, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Insignia Financial, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms
CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

By Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) put options show concentrated positioning at the 19,000 and 20,000 strike levels.
Traders continue to establish new positions approximately 15%-20% below current market levels, suggesting protection against major market corrections rather than minor pullbacks. The focus is on near-term risk.
Implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, consistent with a broadly sideways movement in the index itself.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen

70% of Senior Directors are confident in data centres, showing faith in their reliability and efficiency despite challenges.
HPL’s acquisition of InterContinental Auckland for $102M marks its entry into the New Zealand market, expanding its portfolio.
Stuart Grant’s appointment as head of Hongkong Land’s $8B Shanghai project highlights the company’s commitment to growth and development in the region.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

Market traders of Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) call options maintain significant holdings in lower strikes, with notable concentration at the 20,000 strike level.
Open interest data reveals significant increase in open interest for 25,000 and 26,000 strike calls since late February, reflecting active trading as traders built new positions.
Despite increased trading activity and changes in market positioning, implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, reflecting a consistent market sentiment.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms

By David Blennerhassett

Bain Capital and CC Capital have both bumped indicative terms to $5/share, a 63% premium to Insignia Financial (IFL AU)’s undisturbed closing share price of $3.06 on December 11 2024.
Both suitors have been granted four weeks of exclusivity. Confirmatory due diligence is expected to be completed within six weeks. IFL’s board is supportive at A$5/share or more.
Where’s Brookfield on all this? A local media source previously reported that at least one suitor was losing interest.

CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns

CLAR is Singapore’s largest industrial REIT with S$16bn of assets across key markets with exposure in business parks, logistics and data centers
We think CLAR has a well diversified and resilient asset portfolio which can withstand any external shocks and drive organic growth
We think there is some interest rate risk but in general the impact is limited. S-REITs were over-corrected YTD and valuation is not demanding

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Longfor Group, Cikarang Listrindo
The Chinese government has announced a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2025 (matching the growth target and actual level achieved in 2024), according to Premier Li Qiang’s annual government work report unveiled during the Two Sessions meeting.
Meanwhile, the government has raised the fiscal budget deficit target to 4% of GDP (vs. 3% previously), and lowered its annual CPI inflation target to “around 2%” (reflecting downward pressure on prices).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 06

Daily Brief Financials: Far East Consortium International, Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Mar-2025): HK’s Far East Consortium sells UK hotel project for $57M.
HK SDR suite broadens to track over 40% of Hang Seng Index with Xiaomi, Meituan and Ping An Insurance

Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Mar-2025): HK’s Far East Consortium sells UK hotel project for $57M.

Far East Consortium sold a UK hotel to AMTD IDEA Group for $57M, expanding the latter’s presence in the hospitality industry.
Qingjian and CCCC made a joint bid of $234M for a Singapore site, highlighting the competitive nature of real estate acquisitions in the region.
C&W reports that the APAC data center market will require a substantial $116B in funding to support its growing pipeline of projects.

HK SDR suite broadens to track over 40% of Hang Seng Index with Xiaomi, Meituan and Ping An Insurance

By Geoff Howie

Three new Hong Kong SDRs, Xiaomi, Meituan, and Ping An Insurance, are now tradable on SGX, expanding thematic exposures.
HK SDRs offer cost-effective access to Hong Kong stocks with lower brokerage fees, no forex fees, and SGD settlements.
Since October 2024, HK SDRs’ daily turnover increased eightfold to S$4 million, with significant trading in Tencent, BYD, and Alibaba.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 05

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Japan Post Bank, S&P 500 INDEX, Link REIT, Philippine Stock Exchange, Shui On Land and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences
Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT
Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

By Joe Jasper

In last week’s 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don’t be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.

Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT

Link REIT, as the largest REIT in Asia, owns a well diversified portfolio which provides visibility and certainty to its future growth
Given the stable fundamentals in Hong Kong, we think the REIT is over-penalized by the market, which presents an attractive entry point
Valuation is not demanding, we think it is a good opportunity for long-term investor

Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25

By Sameer Taneja

We summarize the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) earnings for FY24. Revenues/core earnings declined 1.2%/2.9% YoY. Inclusive of the gain in the stake of PDS, profits were up 56% YoY.
The outlook for 2025 is strong, bolstered by the completed acquisition of a 78.3% stake in PDS and a 75% increase in listing maintenance fees, which contribute 18% of revenues.
With a FY25 PE of 13.6x, over 10% cash in the market, more than 50% EBITDA, and a 7.4% dividend yield, the stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In the US, the ISM manufacturing index edged down to 50.3 (50.7 e / 50.9 p) in February.
This was on account of a contraction in the new orders and employment components, which were offset somewhat by a sharp increase in the prices paid component.
Meanwhile, the February (final) S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (51.2 p), above the preliminary estimate of 51.6.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 04

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, MS&AD Insurance, Yes Bank, Crisil Ltd, NIFTY Index, DBS, Yanlord Land, New World Development and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
India’s Worst Accounting Scandals
Ever-Vigilant CRISIL, India Rating Downgrade Firm – After Default
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Down Trend Accelerates
NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows
Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?

By Sanghyun Park

If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

By Travis Lundy

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
161 new CGRs were filed in February 2025. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
THE BIG NEWS: The “Document 3” (linked below) of the TSE’s 20th Council Meeting 18 Feb is worth reading carefully. This will set the stage for more takeover fun.

India’s Worst Accounting Scandals

By Mark Jolley

Learn about India’s worst accounting fraud, including Yes Bank, Satyam Computer, Kingfisher and others in this report.
Misappropriation features prominently in these scandals, in addition to fraudulent reporting and corporate governance failure.
Siphoning of funds from bank loans, in particular, has been a common feature of Indian corporate malfeasance.

Ever-Vigilant CRISIL, India Rating Downgrade Firm – After Default

By Hemindra Hazari

Crisil Ltd (CRISIL IN) and India Rating Downgrade AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) to ‘D’ from “A/Stable’ post a default
Rating agencies exist to anticipate events such as defaults and not react after being informed of a default
Rating agencies ignored poor fundamentals of AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) in 2QFY2025 results which clearly and publicly revealed deteriorating cash flows and a high-risk financial strategy

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Down Trend Accelerates

By John Ley

Sell-Off continues with all four trading days this week registering losses.
1M Implied vols firmed on the sharp move lower but remain capped at 14 for the time being.
March seasonality positive for Nifty which might help reverse the trend in the second half of the month.

NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows

By Nico Rosti

Our latest insight on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index’s lows.
The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.
Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern…

Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow of S$265 million from Feb 21-27, 2025.
DBS Group Holdings led share buybacks with 350,000 shares at S$46.73 each; total buybacks amounted to S$31,062,634.
Wilmar International’s FY24 core net profit declined 26% to US$1.16 billion, with sales volume growth in most divisions.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo
In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).
Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).

New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics