Financials

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.
• Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Recent Spin-off and Independent Growth Trajectory: Sony Financial Group (SFG) recently completed its spin-off from Sony Group, becoming a publicly traded entity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This strategic move is designed to allow SFG to pursue its own growth strategies with greater agility and focus on its core financial services businesses, while still leveraging the strong brand recognition of Sony.
• Diversified Financial Services Portfolio: SFG operates a well-established and diversified business portfolio consisting of life insurance (Sony Life), non-life insurance (Sony Assurance), and banking (Sony Bank). This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and helps to mitigate risks associated with any single segment of the financial services industry.
• Shareholder Return Initiatives Amidst Market Volatility: In conjunction with its listing, SFG has announced a significant share buyback program of up to ¥100 billion. This is intended to enhance capital efficiency and mitigate potential selling pressure from index rebalancing, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns during a transitional period for the stock.

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• Investors are under-appreciating a sharp narrowing of the US current account deficit in 2Q25. This is a sustainable trend as net government borrowing normalises to around 5% of GDP
• The US is not losing its ability to attract long term capital flows. In 2Q25, net foreign direct investment reached $121b, the strongest since 3Q22
• The result is a sharp improvement in the basic balance. Investors should monitor this indicator to assess whether Trump’s policy mix of fiscal consolidation and re-shoring is succeeding or not

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPO highlights strong branch growth and granular loan book, though new-to-credit exposure remains limited and underwriting largely product-driven.
• Weak sourcing disclosures beyond Home Loans raise concerns on DSA reliance, portfolio quality, and resilience during downturns, especially in competitive lending segments.
• Collections are highly digitized and analytics-driven, yet regulatory inspections reveal persistent compliance, governance, and risk management lapses across Tata Capital, TMFL, and TCHFL.

• On 1 October, it was reported in the local media that Hahn & Co (is acquiring the management rights of SK D&D Co Ltd (210980 KS). 
• This tender offer is not likely to be successful. Less than 1/3 of the 6.96 million shares that are up for tender offer could be sold by the existing shareholders.
• We believe that the majority of the remaining investors in SK D&D want higher tender offer price.

• Giovanni Agnelli founded the auto company Fiat in 1923 and XOR acquired the Juventus football Club
• Exor, a Dutch holding company controlled by the Agnelli family, has evolved from its Fiat roots to become an investment holding company with assets including Ferrari
• John Elkann, the great-great grandson of Fiat’s founder, is now leading Exor and shaping its future, with a focus on alternative asset management at Sangato

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Logan Group
• The UST curve flattened marginally yesterday, as long-end yields declined marginally while the short end was stable.
• Trading volumes were reported to be below average, as macro releases were stalled in the second day of the US government shutdown.

• Key 1H25 takeaways include: 1) As previously disclosed, MFI’s co-founders recently sold the company to Fire Lucky Investment Co., controlled by Mr. Dawei Yuan.
• Looking ahead, we would not be surprised to see Mr. Yuan increasingly leverage his considerable background/expertise, particularly as it relates to digital assets, to shift MFI’s strategic vision/business model, thereby enhancing the company’s growth prospects, revenue profile, and earnings power over time.
• 2) In September, MFI filed a prospectus as part of a previously-filed “shelf” registration statement to potentially raise up to $700 million via the sale of equity, debt, and/or warrants.

Key points (machine generated)

• Catalyst Bancorp, a Louisiana bank with $272 million in assets, has potential for 60-70% value appreciation if sold, currently trading at 653% of tangible book value.
• The bank, established in 1922 and transitioned to a stock institution in 2021, has expanded its branch network under CEO Joe Zanco and a young management team.
• Despite low return on equity, Catalyst Bancorp shows respectable return on assets, improving efficiency ratios, and a high Tier 1 capital ratio of 46.95% after repositioning its balance sheet.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
• It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
• The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and Green Dot locations starting with Walmart in the US.

• Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
• That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4. 
• Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling. 

• WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN) IPO is an OFS under SEBI Regulation 6(2), reflecting weak financial eligibility, ongoing losses, and dependence on deferred tax credits for reported profitability.
• Promoter and governance risks loom large, with pending ED, CBI, and EOW proceedings against Jitendra and Karan Virwani, plus complaints of incomplete or misleading disclosures in filings.
• The IPO mainly serves as a deleveraging tool for the promoter, with pledged shares, heavy audit qualifications, weak controls, and depleting cash exposing material investor risks.

• Sammaan Capital’s Board approved a preferential issue to Avenir Investment RSC Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants.  
• The strategic inflow from the well-capitalized, sovereign-linked IHC provides a massive de-risking event, validates Sammaan’s new-book strategy, and signals a powerful new stream of capital flows into Indian HFC/NBFC space.  
• The scale, strategic nature, and pricing of the deal position Sammaan for a significant re-rating, shifting the investment thesis from asset quality clean-up to funded growth.

• New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses
• However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost
• Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish

• WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN) is looking to raise about US$338m in its India IPO.
• WeWork India (WWI) offers a wide range of workspace solutions, including custom-designed buildings, floors, and offices, enterprise office suites, private offices, co-working spaces, customized managed offices, and hybrid digital solutions.
• In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comp and IPO valuations.

• WeWork India is the Indian arm of global flex space major (WEWKQ US); however, it is promoted by Indian real estate major Embassy group (~48% stake post IPO)
• WeWork has differentiated itself from the crowded flex space market with a focus on premium Grade-A property and cornering market share in major markets like Bengaluru and Mumbai (MMA)
• IPO valuation at 22x FY25 EBITDA prices in this premium relative to peers (12-14x). Can the company sustain these valuations?

Key points (machine generated)

• Agent IG Holdings is facing an operating loss for the interim period ending December 2025 but expects to meet full-year financial targets due to business expansion.
• The company provides a wide range of property and life insurance services and is pursuing mergers and acquisitions to adapt to industry changes.
• Since January 2016, Agent IG has integrated 636 insurance agencies and acquired Financial Japan Co., Ltd. in April 2024 to strengthen its life insurance focus.

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• Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
• BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
• Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.

• JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
• The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
• Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2026 based on trading data as of end-September 2025.

• Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The combination of going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has traded profitably in July and is now flagged again as a fresh opportunity.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India. It is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion. 
• I had previously discussed the investment case in Tata Capital IPO: The Investment Case. 
• The RHP updates show that the fundamentals remain mixed. Positives include large size, mid-tier growth rates and good asset quality. Negatives include below peer average NIM, interest spread and ROA. 

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Vedanta Resources, Nickel Industries
• The UST curve twisted slightly steeper yesterday, with the front-end continuing to be supported by the prospect of Fed rate cuts against the backdrop of a looming US government shutdown.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.61%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.15%. Equities climbed for the third day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

• The company priced 18.4 million shares at $20.00, the high end of its $18.00–$20.00 range and shares opened at $22.50, a 12.5% premium.
• The deal was in high demand ahead of pricing, with order books reportedly more than 10x oversubscribed.
• Neptune’s debut follows five other insurance-related IPOs this year, a sector that has produced strong results immediately following their IPOs.

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• DNB has set quantitative prudential requirements as part of the SREP 2025 decision for Triodos Bank.
• The Total SREP Capital Requirement (TSCR) for Triodos Bank on a consolidated basis is 12.18%.
• Consisting of a Pillar 1 Capital Requirement of 8.00% and a Pillar 2 Capital Requirement of 4.18%, a slight decrease from the requirement for 2024 (4.45%).

• MoneyMax’s group revenue rose 31.2% year-on-year to S$243.0 million, with net profits increasing 76.4% to S$31.8 million in H1 FY2025.
• The company’s five-year plan includes expanding in Singapore and Malaysia and exploring Southeast Asian markets with similar demographics.
• MoneyMax maintains a robust balance sheet, holding cash and cash equivalents of approximately S$18.9 million as of 30 June 2025.

Key points (machine generated)

• Agent IG Holdings reported an operating loss for the interim period ending December 2025 but expects to meet full-year objectives.
• The company offers a wide range of property and life insurance services and is pursuing mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position.
• Since January 2016, Agent IG Holdings has acquired 636 insurance agencies, including the notable acquisition of Financial Japan Co., Ltd. in April 2024.

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• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
• The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.

• In Q1FY26, Edelweiss reported 20% YoY PAT growth.  Edelweiss is growing from strength to strength with its businesses scaling up well. Its insurance and asset management businesses are growing rapidly. 
• During Q1FY26, Edelweiss divested 15% stake in its Mutual Fund business, Edelweiss Asset Management, to WestBridge Capital for INR 450cr, valuing the business at INR 3000cr. 
• YoY, Edelweiss has reduced its consolidated net debt by INR 4845cr (down 31% YoY) and corporate debt by INR 2260cr (down 26% YoY). Corporate debt is now at INR 6350cr.

• Hahn & Co. to buy SK Discovery’s 31.3% stake, launch ₩12,750/share tender for 37.4% float (₩88.8B), fully debt-financed, Oct 1–29.
• SK D&D likely gaps to offer price at open; 95% triggers delisting, but bidder must hit ~85%—tender size is heavy, so success isn’t guaranteed.
• Setup for possible 2nd-round tender; current offer one-third of FY25 BPS, minorities unlikely to bite—trade is positioning for a potential price bump.

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates

• Minmetals Land (230 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to certain inside information and pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.“
• It is likely that the controlling shareholder (China Minmetals), representing 61.88% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
• With a 40% surge in its share price on Monday, Minmetals is trading at a significant premium to book, suggesting limited upside. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$0.54-HK$0.69.

• WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN)  is looking to raise about US$338m in its India IPO. The all-secondary IPO has been downsized from its initial estimated size of about US$407m.
• WeWork India (WWI) offers a wide range of workspace solutions, including custom-designed buildings, floors, and offices; enterprise office suites; private offices; co-working spaces; customized managed offices; and hybrid digital solutions.
• In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates.

• Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) posted a strong Q1FY26 despite a challenging market environment. Q1FY26 revenue grew 15% YoY and PAT grew 19% YoY led by improved cost efficiency.
• Managed Products and Investment Solutions (MPIS) which is a core focus area for Nuvama Wealth saw strong inflows representing 77% of the INR 2900cr total inflows.
• Even within Nuvama Private, the recurring assets net flows were INR 2900cr+, which on an annualized basis implies a growth of 25%+ YoY.

• Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM IN) is a leading asset manager in India, well-positioned to capitalize on the structural growth of the country’s financialization of savings, driven by rising incomes and financial literacy.
• The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, consistently gaining market share in high-margin equity AUM and rapidly growing its Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) book, which provides a stable and recurring revenue stream.
• While the outlook is positive, key risks include intense competition from existing players and new entrants, potential pressure on yields from the growing share of lower-fee passive products, and market volatility impacting AUM growth and investor sentiment.

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• Virtu Financial is a premier, technology-driven market maker whose financial performance is intrinsically linked to market volatility and trading volumes. Higher volatility generally leads to wider bid-ask spreads and increased revenue.
• The company faces intense competition from larger, private firms like Citadel Securities and Jane Street, which presents a significant challenge to market share and profitability. Additionally, the high-frequency trading (HFT) industry is subject to significant regulatory scrutiny, posing a persistent risk to its business model, particularly concerning practices like payment-for-order-flow.
• Despite competitive and regulatory pressures, Virtu maintains a highly capital-efficient business model with a strong track record of returning value to shareholders through consistent dividends and share buybacks. Future growth opportunities lie in expansion into new asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies and fixed income, and leveraging its technology for execution services.

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Key points (machine generated)

• And Do Holdings announced a five-year management plan to restructure its business and improve profitability.
• For the fiscal year ending June 2025, the company reported a 4.2% decline in revenues to 64.735 billion yen and a 27% drop in operating profit to 2.62 billion yen.
• The declines were mainly due to lower-than-expected transfers to the HLB fund, affected by reduced purchase contracts in the house leaseback business.

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• Migalo Holdings (5535 JP) is one of the rare TSE Prime-listed companies which got the boot from TOPIX, stayed in Prime, and is clawing its way back. 
• As of end-March-25, it met all the criteria to stay in Prime and rejoin TOPIX. Now they are launching a primary offering, and this may presage an effort to rejoin. 
• They are adding float and 10% of shares to the pile, in this ¥4.4-5.0bn offering. But instos are net short this stock. 

• The Riksbank will keep policy rates unchanged at 1.75%, with no further cuts expected and a small probability of a hike in 4Q26.
• The Swedish budget announcement of unfunded reforms totaling 120 billion in additional easing caused Swedish rates to rise and yield curves to adjust.
• The Norges Bank surprised by cutting rates despite strong economic data, with markets pricing in further easing despite the bank’s revised higher rate forecast.

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• Neptune Insurance is seeing strong demand in its pre-IPO roadshow, with channel checks revealing that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed—north of 10x.
• Financially, Neptune has delivered impressive profitability. In 2024 it generated $119.3 million in revenue, $34.6 million in net income, and $72.1 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• The company is efficient and profitable and they believe they have a SaaS-like scalability which, in our opinion, investors will be able to properly forecast out.

• Market sentiment is data dependent, particularly on US economic data, which has been surprising to the upside
• Despite some uncertainty surrounding Fed independence, the overall macro backdrop is conducive for dollar weakness
• FX models are showing lack of conviction in the current environment, with carry trades in FX, including EM currencies, being a popular choice for market participants

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• The increased purchase of Mirae Asset Life Insurance shares by the Mirae Asset Group companies could be a PRELUDE to a potential voluntary delisting of Mirae Asset Life Insurance. 
• We believe that there is a relatively reasonable probability of the Mirae Asset Group taking Mirae Asset Life Insurance private in the next 1-2 years.
• Mirae Asset Life Insurance is trading at only 0.4x P/B. Treasury shares represent 26.3% of its total outstanding shares.

• Evergrande is a defunct Chinese property developer that was once the second-largest in China by sales. Its collapse in 2021 triggered a major crisis in the country’s real estate sector.
• The company is currently undergoing liquidation after a Hong Kong court order in January 2024, following its failure to present a viable restructuring plan for its massive debt, which exceeded $300 billion.
• The future for Evergrande‘s stakeholders is highly uncertain, with offshore creditors facing a bleak outlook for recovery. The company’s situation highlights significant corporate governance failures and systemic risks within China’s property market.

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• Punjab National Bank (PNB) is demonstrating a significant financial turnaround, marked by robust growth in net income and revenue over the past three years. This is supported by a strategic focus on improving asset quality and diversifying its lending portfolio.
• As the second-largest public sector bank in India, PNB benefits from extensive government backing and a vast branch network, providing a stable, low-cost deposit base. The bank is leveraging this position to push for digital transformation and expand into high-growth sectors like renewable energy and infrastructure.
• Key challenges remain, including managing historical non-performing assets (NPAs), navigating intense competition from private sector banks and fintech companies, and mitigating cybersecurity risks. Sustained execution of its strategic initiatives will be crucial for long-term value creation.

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• This week, I published a deep dive into Sony’s upcoming spin-off of Sony Financial (SFGI/8729).
• I will be watching the spin-off closely and hoping for selling pressure.
• KBR, Inc. (KBR) announced on September 24, 2025 that it plans to spin off its Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment into a separate publicly traded company.

• On July 1, 2023, HDFC Limited, India’s largest mortgage lender, merged with HDFC Bank, the country’s largest private sector bank, in a historic $40 billion deal. This primer analyzes the pre-merger entity, HDFC Limited, and its integration into HDFC Bank.
• The merger creates a financial services behemoth with a combined asset base of around ₹18 trillion, positioning it to capitalize on India’s burgeoning housing finance market. The home loan business is a central pillar of the merged entity’s growth strategy.
• Significant cross-selling opportunities exist, as a large portion of HDFC Limited‘s customers did not bank with HDFC Bank, and vice versa. The integration aims to leverage HDFC Bank’s extensive distribution network and lower cost of funds to enhance the mortgage business.

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• Our earlier insight Tata Capital IPO – Jinxed by Tata Motors Finance describes how post merger with Tata Motor finance,  the finance metrics of the company changed.
• In this insight we discuss about updates from Q1FY26 results and key observations on the same.
• This also discusses about the IPO valuation, peer comparison and our view.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan 
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• “Beautiful Skew” showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia. 
• Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks
• Highlights: Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)stands out with historically low implied volatility across the term structure. Alibaba (9988 HK)is rich in November and December contracts.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• NAV crystallization from Tekscend IPO – ~¥108 bn cash proceeds plus a ~14% residual stake; base NAV ~¥150–160 bn vs. ¥129 bn market cap (15–20% discount).
• Upside capped without payout shift – modest base case (¥3,900–4,100/share, flat to +7%); bull case (¥4,400, +15–20%) requires high-end IPO pricing and explicit return policy.
• Persistent structural discount – low dividend (~0.9% yield), no buyback track record, and opaque residual portfolio (e.g., Golf Digest) keep holdco discount entrenched.

• Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
• OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) 
• OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
• Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.
• Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.

• Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
• For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
• Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.

• Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.
• Naspers (NPN SJ)‘s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
• The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?

• Q1FY26 pre-sales came in weak led by delayed launches; however, KPDL’s management has guided to do INR 3500cr+ (25% YoY growth) in pre-sales for the full-year FY26.
• During Q1FY26, KPDL completed allotment of 14.3% equity stake to Blackstone bringing in INR 417cr of capital that is earmarked to be predominantly used as growth capital. 
• Due to ongoing transition phase with Blackstone (BX US) being added as a promoter, the business development activity has been slow. However, more clarity and visibility is expected post Q2.

• Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
• The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _. 
• The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We see five M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the December 2025 rebal and then three more after the rebal event.
• Our latest estimates suggest there could be no regular changes for the F100 and F250 indexes during the December 2025 rebalance.

• Spin-Off unlocks scale: Sony Financial (~¥23 tn assets) carved out from Sony, with ~¥250 bn market cap and ~¥200 bn free float.
• Balance-Sheet heavy, rate-sensitive: Core life insurance business (~80–85% of profits) supported by strong solvency (ESR 189%).
• Catalysts: Forced selling post-listing, earnings delivery, 40–50% payout policy, and likely TOPIX inclusion within 6–12 months.

• Tokenized Stocks Show Strong On-Chain Supply Growth: The tokenized stocks on-chain market value (ex-EXOD) has grown to an estimated $127M, up 14x YTD (as of 6 Sep 2025; $342M inclusive of EXOD), driven by the launch of Backed’s xStocks and Ondo Global Markets.
• Are Tokenized Stocks Real Stocks? The two main stock tokenization models are synthetic structure and native issuance.
• Both provide exposure to the return of the underlying stock, but native issuance aims to give investors true ownership rights.

• Nuvama Wealth is capitalizing on India’s burgeoning financialization trend, with its re-branding and strategic focus on affluent and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNIs) driving strong growth in client assets and profitability.
• As India’s wealth management market matures and faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, Nuvama’s differentiated model position it uniquely to capture a larger share of the shifting landscape.
• Nuvama’s integrated platform and execution-focused management team are navigating industry-wide challenges, from tightening regulatory framework to sustain a growth trajectory that is outperforming peers and creating long-term value.

• Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, a three-decade-old full-service brokerage house, is set to go public with a fresh issue to fund its working capital and expansion.
• The offering provides a window into a mature, brand-led brokerage with an industry-leading Average Revenue per Client (ARPC) and a strong presence across Tier I, II, and III cities.
• The company’s structural strengths, including its Margin Trading Facility (MTF) business and client vintage, position it for sustained growth in India’s evolving capital markets.

• As suggested in our previous insight, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally was at risk of pulling back: a small correction began last week.
• The big question now: is this just a minor 1-week pullback (a buy-the-dip opportunity)? or a larger pullback, possibly directed towards 23k?
• This insight discusses the various tactical scenarios, including profit targets for a continuation of the rally from here.