Most Read

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.
Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

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Aug 24

Most Read: Pop Mart, Sanrio, Swiggy, Dongfeng Motor, Giant Biogene, S&P/ASX 200, Samsung Biologics , Horizon Robotics, Sony Financial Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow
Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes
S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized
Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.

S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

By Nico Rosti

As reported by Brian Freitas , 2 days ago S&P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details here.
The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.
The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.

Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected

KRX’s prelim review forced Biologics into tough commitments: no share swaps or carve-out IPOs for three years, effectively blocking any Samsung C&T stake sell-down and overlapping-listing risks.
FSS appears satisfied with Biologics’ aggressive commitments, but may push for more—most likely a lock-up from Samsung C&T preventing share sales in both parent and spinco for a set period.
Trading setup remains short Samsung C&T; recent Life bill chatter is noise. Samsung governance reform is low-priority, and Biologics’ aggressive spinco lock-ups reinforce C&T as the near-term underperformer.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

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Aug 23

Most Read: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Pop Mart, Isupetasys, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ryohin Keikaku, Shibaura Electronics, PointsBet Holdings , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Nota and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes
[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)
[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)
[Japan M&A] Minebea Forces a Game of Regulatory Chicken on Shibaura (6957 JP)
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer
Korea Capital Market Reform Package Just Unveiled: Korea Premium Narrative Holds
Nota IPO Preview

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the KOSPI2 in December.

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)

On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider’s major Japan/global “standard” index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
These changes were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. Watch the direct peers.

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider’s major Japan/global “standard” index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
They were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. This sets up a possible trade before or into the event.

[Japan M&A] Minebea Forces a Game of Regulatory Chicken on Shibaura (6957 JP)

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has bid ¥6,200/share for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The tender ends 28 August. YAGEO has over bid now to ¥6,635/share.
YAGEO’s regulatory clearance decision may not arrive before 1 September, after the Minebea tender closes. Minebea now says they will neither bump nor extend.
Minebea is hoping people will throw in the towel and tender because if their tender ends and Yageo’s fails, it might a long way down. There are possibilities but… scary.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer

Mixi Inc (2121 JP) disclosed its final PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer. The base unconditional offer remains A$1.25 but will be increased to A$1.30 if it acquires a 90% stake.
Mixi’s final offer is designed to put maximum pressure on BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) to fold. Mixi would not satisfy the 90% threshold unless Betr accepts its offer.
Betr has three options: to improve its offer, accept Mixi’s offer, or maintain terms. The last option, which results in a significant stake in a competitor, makes strategic sense.

Korea Capital Market Reform Package Just Unveiled: Korea Premium Narrative Holds

M&A valuations won’t rely solely on market prices, carve-outs favor parent shareholders, and mandatory tender offers plus IPO cornerstones lead, with tender offers live H1 next year.
Commercial Act tweaks have tackled governance, and the tax reform boosts dividends. Today’s markets reform package addresses the last missing piece: giving minority shareholders a fair shake in M&A scenarios.
Details and timelines remain unclear, but the package sets a roadmap to improve Korea’s equity risk-return profile, supporting DM inclusion upside and maintaining the Korea Premium narrative.

Nota IPO Preview

Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota specializes in lightweight and optimized artificial intelligence (AI) technology.
The IPO price range is from 7,600 won to 9,100 won. At this price range, the company’s expected market cap is from 163 billion won to 196 billion won.
Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance AI models even on resource-constrained edge devices, centered around its proprietary AI model optimization platform, NetsPresso®.

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Aug 22

Most Read: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Daiichi Sankyo, Pop Mart, Shibaura Electronics, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ryohin Keikaku, First Pacific Co, Samsung Life Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
Daiichi Sankyo Placement – US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)
[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)
First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here
True Aspect (Trade-Wise) Of the Samsung Life Accounting Issue: Today’s Biggest Market Narrative
Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Daiichi Sankyo Placement – US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind, the last deal in the stock didn’t do well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else.
But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)

On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider’s major Japan/global “standard” index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
These changes were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. Watch the direct peers.

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs – Differing Peer Dynamics – Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider’s major Japan/global “standard” index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
They were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. This sets up a possible trade before or into the event.

First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

In StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched, I saw First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.
That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held Manila Electric Company (MER PM), that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.
By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.

True Aspect (Trade-Wise) Of the Samsung Life Accounting Issue: Today’s Biggest Market Narrative

Both accounting issues are complex, but intense regulator scrutiny fuels the Samsung Life Act case, sparking governance reshuffle bets and driving today’s Samsung Life stock pop.
Accounting rechecks could spark divestment fears or governance-driven rerating, creating a classic headline-driven, bidirectional trading setup.
Near-Term, this is a headline-driven momentum setup: Samsung Life longs/shorts, ready to pivot, with relative-value plays vs financial peers or Samsung’s governance-linked names.

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

By Michael Allen

Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers’ profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell
Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That’s a big “IF”, but wait, there’s more.
U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing’s profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer

In response to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) matching its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer on 14 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its offer by 7.0% from JPY6,200 to JPY6,635.
To remain in the game, Yageo had to bump. The latest bump underscores Yageo’s confidence in securing regulatory approvals.
The Minebea CEO suggested that its JPY6,200 offer would be the final one. If Yageo secures regulatory approval (likely), Minebea will walk rather than match Yageo’s latest offer.

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Aug 21

Most Read: Daiichi Sankyo, Atlas Arteria, Pop Mart, HMM Co., Ltd., KB Financial, Samsung Electronics, Lynch Group Holdings, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
Daiichi Sankyo Placement – US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September
Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry
UK CPI Trend Extends Excess In July
Korea’s Dividend Narrative Is Back: Unpacking the DP’s New Bill and Its Backstory
US Government May Acquire Equity Stakes in Samsung Electronics and TSMC
Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Placing Shares to Fund R&D Amid Stellar 1H Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

Daiichi Sankyo Placement – US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind, the last deal in the stock didn’t do well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.

HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.

UK CPI Trend Extends Excess In July

By Phil Rush

Another upside surprise in UK CPI inflation extended the accumulated drift to 1.3pp over the past year, yet was only 0.2pp above our old call.
This outcome matched the BoE’s latest call, with airfares driving the rise, and median pressures holding slightly above a target-consistent pace, so there is less policy impact.
The MPC was finely balanced in its support for August’s cut, and this rise will not lead dissenters to support past action, let alone another cut, which we still doubt occurs.

Korea’s Dividend Narrative Is Back: Unpacking the DP’s New Bill and Its Backstory

A new bill cutting Korea’s dividend tax hit the tape, giving local dividend plays an immediate boost on the news flow.
The presidential office is aligned on pushing the dividend tax below the 27.5% CGT floor. The new party leader is also tightly syncing with the Blue House to avoid clashes.
The DP’s tax cut move today puts the gov’s dividend narrative back in play with juice. We need setups to ride this theme.

US Government May Acquire Equity Stakes in Samsung Electronics and TSMC

According to Reuters, the US government may be interested in acquiring equity stakes in Samsung Electronics and TSMC in exchange for CHIPS and Science Act grants.
The US government is exploring ways to take equity stakes in these two Asian tech giants that have been expanding their semiconductor facilities in the United States.
If the US government decides to invest $10 billion each in Samsung Electronics and TSMC, they would represent about 3% and 1% of Samsung Electronics and TSMC’s market caps, respectively.

Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG

Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both of which are TPG entities.
Hasfarm is offering A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close. The consideration includes a fully franked dividend of A$0.09/share. It’s April 2021 IPO price was A$3.60/share.
The Offer has unanimous board support. 38.5% of the register is supportive. Hasfarm has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out. Done deal.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Placing Shares to Fund R&D Amid Stellar 1H Performance

By Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) is placing 108M shares at the price of HK$36.30 per share. 65% of the proceeds will be used for the R&D of new innovative drugs.
Hansoh’s late-stage pipeline seems to be interesting, as its key focus areas being oncology and metabolic diseases, which are among the fast-growing therapeutic areas, with huge addressable patient population.
Hansoh has announced better-than-expected 1H25 result, with both revenue and net profit beating consensus. Innovative drugs revenue increased 22% YoY to RMB6B, contributing 82.7% of total revenue.

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Aug 20

Most Read: HDFC Bank, Pop Mart, Gemvax & Kael, Hanon Systems, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group , Atlas Arteria, F&F, HMM Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
UK Excess Inflation Expectations
Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering
Hansoh Pharma Placement – Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September
M&A Battle for TaylorMade
HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn).

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

With the averaging period for the October rebalance starting in two weeks, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 1.5-4.7x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
On average, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the last 3 months and could reverse some of the changes from the April rebalance.

UK Excess Inflation Expectations

By Phil Rush

The upwards trend in consensus inflation forecasts reflects persistent excess effective expectations supporting wages amid policymakers’ failure to re-anchor at the target.
Easing on the assumption of success predictably negated the required conditions, so we forecasted the problem. Nonetheless, expectations were also stickier than we assumed.
Without renewed progress, wage growth should keep trending above the BoE’s forecast, discouraging further rate cuts. Hikes may even be needed in 2026 to break excesses.

Hanon Systems Announces a Major Potential Rights Offering

On 14 August, Hanon Systems (018880 KS) announced a potential rights offering capital raise. The exact amount will be finalized at the EGM next month.
The significant size of the rights offering is expected to burden its largest shareholder Hankook Tire & Technology (161390 KS) which owns a 54.8% stake in Hanon Systems.
We believe the potential rights offering is likely to continue to negatively impact Hanon Systems by diluting its existing shareholders.

Hansoh Pharma Placement – Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement.
The stock has done exceptionally well this year but is now trading at near its all-time highs and it doesn’t really need the cash.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an “outsider”.Explanations such as “lipstick effect” are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.

M&A Battle for TaylorMade

TaylorMade is up for sale. TaylorMade is one of the most valuable, golf equipment brands globally.
We labeled this article as Bearish due to concerns about F&F getting into this M&A battle for TaylorMade in the first place which could result in overpaying for this deal.
We would rather have F&F take the win and provide higher returns to its shareholders.

HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.

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Aug 19

Most Read: Sanrio, Santos Ltd, Isupetasys, Shibaura Electronics, Smart Share Global, HMM Co., Ltd., Pop Mart, Mayne Pharma, Japan Business Systems and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share
KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes
FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
[Japan ECM/Index] Japan Business Systems (5036) Offering Triggers Move to TOPIX

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company.
Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Joy City Property (207 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the KOSPI2 in December.

FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025

The Ministry of Finance has published an updated “FEFTA List” of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025.
50 names lowered their ranks from the most “core” Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.
Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So

Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread >10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em

On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September.
Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive – upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).

[Japan ECM/Index] Japan Business Systems (5036) Offering Triggers Move to TOPIX

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) today announced a couple of interesting things. First, admission to TOPIX (contingent on a successful secondary offering of shares, also announced today).
Then a ¥5/share special commemorative dividend (0.4%) and a “gift” of 4% of the company to a J-ESOP Trust for employees, where the company gifts the shares.
The latter looks aggressive/generous, but the modalities here are interesting.

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Aug 18

Most Read: DroneShield Ltd, King Slide Works, Sanrio, Sun Corp, Carta Holdings, Inc., Singtel, SK Innovation, Ibiden Co Ltd, Gold Road Resources, Isupetasys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings
[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now
Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value, India’s Jewellery Caution & Taiwan’s Top ETF’s Rebalance
Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation
Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation
Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer
KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index changes.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide

There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – one is high probability and the other is right at the cusp.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) is being added to a global index this month, so the ETF inclusion will come hot on the heels of that.
The impact on the stocks is pretty big with passive trackers needing to buy between 1.3-5.5x ADV in the adds and sell between 3.4-6.4x ADV in the deletes.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it’s not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.

[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper.
That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly.

Curator’s Cut: Singapore Unlocks Value, India’s Jewellery Caution & Taiwan’s Top ETF’s Rebalance

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review value-unlocking moves by Singapore-listed companies, take stock of India’s jewellery retail market, and track how Taiwan’s largest ETF drives flows for its adds and deletes
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation

Battery-Sector rotation is heating up in Korea as active ETFs sharply boost LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, signaling renewed sector focus amid ESS growth and easing valuation pressures.
Watch for supply-demand dislocations during battery-sector ETF rebalances; top-heavy names may see concentrated flows, amplifying trading intensity and driving larger-than-normal price swings.
The 25% cap reversion could move LG Energy Solution down and SK Innovation up ~5pp, with flows hitting -0.2x/+0.6x DTV, potentially amplified by aggressive sector inflows.

Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.
Earnings Upgrade & Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.
Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.

Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer

After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR’s indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair & reasonable. It is.

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the KOSPI2 in December.

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Aug 17

Most Read: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Horizon Robotics, Amman Mineral Internasional, Consun Pharmaceutical, Zhongji Innolight , Ola Electric, JX Advanced Metals, King Slide Works, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Carta Holdings, Inc. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September
NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Passive Buying in the Next 6 Weeks
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide
A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward
[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions

A methodology change for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) will result in 20 deletions at the close of trading on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.3bn (US$162m). Passive trackers need to sell between 0.05-1x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the other index constituents since the start of the year but there has been little movement since the announcement of the methodology change.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September

Nearing the end of the review period for the September rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
WuXi AppTec, Zhongji Innolight and BeiGene could replace China United Network, NARI Technology and China National Nuclear Power in the ETF at the close on 19 September.
Passives will need to trade 0.1-0.7x ADV in the forecast changes. The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Passive Buying in the Next 6 Weeks

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) listed in March and did not get Fast Entry to global indices since a large part of the IPO was allotted to domestic retail investors.
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be added to one global index this month and could be added to the other global index in September.
The stock is trading higher following the better than forecast results announced last week. The index inclusions could take the stock higher in the short-term.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide

There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – one is high probability and the other is right at the cusp.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) is being added to a global index this month, so the ETF inclusion will come hot on the heels of that.
The impact on the stocks is pretty big with passive trackers needing to buy between 1.3-5.5x ADV in the adds and sell between 3.4-6.4x ADV in the deletes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew” continues. Enormous swings in H/A ratios in high AH premia names, materials, and non-bank finance.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) fell 2.9% on the week, 2.2% from Monday close to Friday. AH premium fell a tick.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper.
That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly.

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Aug 16

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Amman Mineral Internasional, Consun Pharmaceutical, Zhongji Innolight , Ola Electric, DroneShield Ltd, King Slide Works, Rezil, Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September
NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide
[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting
What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions

A methodology change for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) will result in 20 deletions at the close of trading on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.3bn (US$162m). Passive trackers need to sell between 0.05-1x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the other index constituents since the start of the year but there has been little movement since the announcement of the methodology change.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September

Nearing the end of the review period for the September rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
WuXi AppTec, Zhongji Innolight and BeiGene could replace China United Network, NARI Technology and China National Nuclear Power in the ETF at the close on 19 September.
Passives will need to trade 0.1-0.7x ADV in the forecast changes. The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index changes.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide

There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – one is high probability and the other is right at the cusp.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) is being added to a global index this month, so the ETF inclusion will come hot on the heels of that.
The impact on the stocks is pretty big with passive trackers needing to buy between 1.3-5.5x ADV in the adds and sell between 3.4-6.4x ADV in the deletes.

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago.
This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting

In Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?, I concluded Shengjing Bank (2066 HK) was one bank I would avoid. It’s now suspended pursuant to the Takeovers code.
Shengjing Bank had one of the largest P/B and net income declines in recent years. It had borderline allowance/provision coverage. It also had the lowest net interest margin.
Shengjing Bank is PRC-incorporated, therefore any delisting proposal would involve a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. And probably a tendering condition.

What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?