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• Malagasy Minerals (CMM AU) and Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) will be added to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index at the close on 18 March.
• The Vaneck Jr Gold Miners (GDXJ US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$5.2bn. So there will be an impact on the adds, deletes and other stocks.
• There are a few stocks in Australia that will have inflows from the GDXJ US ETF apart from the FTSE All-Cap and S&P/ASX 300 trackers on the same day.

• There are no adds/deletes to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the March rebalance. However, there are changes to free floats and capping factors.
• The largest impacts are on ioneer Ltd (INR AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Iluka Resources (ILU AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU).
• The non-inclusion of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could lead to a selloff tomorrow. Both stocks are FTSE All-Cap and S&P/ASX300 inclusions on Friday.

• The Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) rebalances were implemented during the week. NIO Inc (9866 HK) started trading in Hong Kong.
• Busy week coming up with the implementation of the KOSDAQ 150 Index, S&P/ASX 200 and the FTSE indices including All-World/All-Cap, China 50, XIN9I INDEX, Taiwan50 and EPRA Nareit.
• The changes to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index and the MVIS Vietnam Index were announced post market close on 11 March and will be implemented on 18 March.

• Olam Group set to replace Olam International (OLAM SP) as the listed company entity on 16 March. It consists of Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Olam Agri and Olam International (OIL).
• The complicated restructuring exercise which was announced in January 2020 is driven by the Board’s intent to unlock long-term shareholder value. 
• Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34% upside to the last trading price of S$1.76 per share (9 March prior to the suspension of the shares).

• China ADRs were sharply lower last week as the SEC started to name companies that were identified under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
• Then DiDi Global dropped 44% on Friday following reports that the their proposals to prevent data/security leaks did not meet CAC’s requirements and work on the HK listing was halted.
• With 2024 not too far away, a lot of the U.S. listed companies will look at listing in Hong Kong in the near future. That will have its own implications.

• Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could be added to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the upcoming rebalance in March.
• Firefinch Ltd (FFX AU) and Sayona Mining (SYA AU) are close adds but unlikely to make the cut for inclusion at the March rebalance.
• There will be a modest impact on the potential adds at the rebalance but the impact on some of the other names could be higher due to capping changes.

• Malagasy Minerals (CMM AU) and Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) will be added to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index at the close on 18 March.
• The Vaneck Jr Gold Miners (GDXJ US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$5.2bn. So there will be an impact on the adds, deletes and other stocks.
• There are a few stocks in Australia that will have inflows from the GDXJ US ETF apart from the FTSE All-Cap and S&P/ASX 300 trackers on the same day.

• Ukraine is a major negative for the World, but is may be eclipsed by China and Oil? 
• China shows no signs of easing her policy and every sign of maintaining a tight monetary stance. Stability is the watchword.
• But don’t forget higher oil prices. US$130/ bbl oil could smash Global Liquidity lower by up to 30%. This isn’t bullish!

• There are 8 additions to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 18 March. Moderate impact on most of the adds.
• There are some stocks that have large float changes; watch Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN). Over 1 day of ADV to sell on some stocks due to capping changes.
• At the December rebalance, all 5 adds jumped the day post announcement and then stayed in a range till implementation of the changes.

• The Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) rebalances were implemented during the week. NIO Inc (9866 HK) started trading in Hong Kong.
• Busy week coming up with the implementation of the KOSDAQ 150 Index, S&P/ASX 200 and the FTSE indices including All-World/All-Cap, China 50, XIN9I INDEX, Taiwan50 and EPRA Nareit.
• The changes to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index and the MVIS Vietnam Index were announced post market close on 11 March and will be implemented on 18 March.

• The SGX (SGX SP) has launched Single Stock Futures (SSF) on Sea Ltd (SE US) and Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) and both products starting trading on 28 February.
• The introduction of SSF on SEA takes on added significance following the inclusion of the ADR in the SIMSCI INDEX and the significant weight of the ADR in the index.
• We take a look at how market participants can use the Single Stock Futures for exposure to the stock, hedging and portfolio risk management.

• On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
• There is nothing new about the list, on 2nd Dec 2021, SEC had issued final amendments to implement the HFCAA which had already spoken about the list and its implications.
• In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments its possible timelines and implications.

• The headlines for Grab‘s recent results looked encouraging but the higher driver and consumer incentives hit revenues and profitability towards the end of the year but this is temporary.
• Grab (GRAB US) is facing stiffer competition in the region, especially from GoTo and Shopee Food but is defending its lead and preparing for higher growth in mobility requiring investment.
• Increasing exposure in digital financial services plus more focus on verticals such as online groceries bodes well for future growth. A market cap of US$12.5bn with US$6.8bn in net cash.

• We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 11 based on HKEx daily reports.
• In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Gas (384 HK), Dynam Japan (6889 HK), Tianli Education (1773 HK).
• In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Mobile (941 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Man Wah (1999 HK).

• LG Energy offers extremely inflated valuation multiples that are even more stretched than frothy peers. 
• It also offers numerous other red flags due to fire risks and a regional production capacity spread that could prove disadvantageous. 
• Recent commodity price surges also impair the competitiveness of EVs overall but also LG Energy’s NMC chemistry vs. LFP.

• This morning Institutional Shareholder Services recommended against both Toshiba’s break up plan and 3D’s alternative proposal. 
• Both proposals looked uncertain and with ISS coming out against them it now appears more likely that both will be rejected. 
• That leaves Toshiba in limbo once again and we aren’t convinced the exit will be a privatisation.

• Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)‘s underlying net profit in FY21 was up 39% against 2020, and just 5% shy of 2019’s level.
• The latest US$250mn buyback program appears to have been completed.
• Shares are down ~5% since the FY21 results. At a ~28% discount to NAV, JMH is inexpensive here. 

• There could be 3 or 5 changes to the STAR50 INDEX in June depending on the minimum listing history (6 months or 12 months) used by the index committee.
• Jinko Solar (688223 CH) is a high probability inclusion while Shanghai Microport Endovascular MedTech (688016 CH), ArcSoft Corp Ltd (688088 CH) and DBAPP Security Ltd (688023) are high probability deletions.
• The March rebalance will be implemented at the close tomorrow. The adds have outperformed the deletes post announcement and there could be a reversal from next week.

• KOSPI 200’s June rebalancing review period is six months, from November 1 to April 30. So, we are now over 70% of the review period.
• The addition result is similar to the screening results last month. However, one stock was newly screened. Hana Tour Service sits at the filtering borderline within the Consumer Discretionary Sector.
• As for deletions, Bukwang Pharmaceutical is screened in the healthcare sector instead of Yungjin Pharmaceutical. S&T Motiv in the Consumer Discretionary Sector is additionally listed as a deletion candidate.

• KOSPI has seven lockup release events that are likely to hit the market. And all of them are IPO institutional and ESOP lockups.
• Whether these IPO institutional/ESOP lockups will hit the market directly correlates with the return size from the offering price. And most of them are still far above the offering price.
• Therefore, it is highly likely that a meaningful share price correction will occur on each release date. This correlation pattern has been more pronounced in recent lockup release events.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) CEO and Executive Director, Kum Hon Tung.

In the upcoming webinar, Kum Hon will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Nicolas Van Broekhoven. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 8 March 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Geo Energy Group is a coal mining group, established in 2008, with offices in Singapore and Indonesia and production operations in Kalimantan, Indonesia. The group has transitioned from being primarily a coal mining services provider to a coal producer that subcontracts its coal mining operation.

Geo Energy has been listed on Singapore Stock Exchange’s main board (Stock Code: RE4) since 2012 and is part of the Singapore FTSE index.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) Chief Corporate Officer Ignacio (Iggy) Sison and Investor Relations Manager Jennifer Luy.

In the upcoming webinar, Jennifer and Iggy will share a short company presentation, after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Nicolas Van Broekhoven. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 15 March 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Dual-listed on the SGX and the Philippine Stock Exchange, Del Monte Pacific Limited is a global branded F&B company that offers premium quality, healthy products. These include packaged fruit, vegetable and tomato, sauces, condiments, pasta, broth, stock, juices, and frozen pineapple under various brands – it also sells fresh pineapples under the S&W brand.

It is proud of its heritage brands – Del Monte, S&W, Contadina, and College Inn – some of which originated in the USA more than 100 years ago. The Group has exclusive rights to use the Del Monte trademarks for packaged products in the United States, South America, the Philippines, Indian subcontinent, and Myanmar, while it owns S&W globally except for Australia and New Zealand. The Group owns the Contadina and College Inn trademarks in various countries.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.

• Mubadala bought 20.8% of Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) in 2007 at ¥5,068/share (split-adjusted). A few months later it dipped below that and hasn’t seen that price since. 
• The sovereign wealth fund sold 5% last year at ¥2,610, and just 7 months later is bailing on the other 15.7% at a 12-17% discount. 
• Result? Float will rise. Index funds will buy a bit, and active foreign institutional investors will nearly double their holdings.

• Mubadala aims to raise around US$287m via selling its 15.8% stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP).
• The stock has been doing well owing to the rise in crude prices and Mubadala has sold some stock before and hence, the deal might not be wholly unexpected. 
• However, its an accelerated bookbuild in Japan, which don’t have a great track record.

• NIO Inc (9866 HK) is expected to list on the HKEX (388 HK) tomorrow. Nearly 820m Class A shares are now held on the Hong Kong Share Register.
• We do not expect NIO Inc (9866 HK) to get Fast Entry to the HSCEI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX, though inclusion in the HSTECH could take place in June.
• NIO Inc (9866 HK) is not likely to get Fast Entry to the HSCI. The stock is not eligible for Southbound Stock Connect as a Secondary Listing.

• The High Court of Singapore has now sanctioned the proposed restructuring of Olam International (OLAM SP) and the proposed listing of OFI Group.
• Entitlement in respect of the Scheme will close on the 11 March. The last day of trading is the 9 March. The listing of OFI is expected in the 2Q22.
• With many grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, boasting an upstream supply is not a bad thing. But the timing of OFI’s listing could work both ways.

• In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.
• Nojima Corp (7419 JP) bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. 
• This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That’s great. But that may be where greatness stops.

• Three local indexes in Korea face rebalancing trading on March 10, supposedly at the close.
• They are 1. KOSPI 200 Fast Entry for LG Energy Solution, 2. KOSPI Size Index Series biannual rebalancing, and 3. KRX BBIG K-New Deal biannual rebalancing.
• There are 18 stocks in total, which have an estimated passive flow of ±0.5x ADTV & an average daily trade value of +₩5.0B.

• Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) was listed on Korea Exchange on 17th September, 2021. Its six month IPO lock-up will expire on 17th March, 2022.
• Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) is a South Korean shipbuilder. The company is majority owned by Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) after the latter’s spin-off in 2019.
• In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry, along with recent updates.

• We have articulated why we believe Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance could have 100%+ upside.
• We further believe that Japan Post Holdings also offers very significant upside potential.
• His comes not just from its subsidiaries’ performance but also improvements in post office profitability and shrinking of the holdco discount.

• Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could be added to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the upcoming rebalance in March.
• Firefinch Ltd (FFX AU) and Sayona Mining (SYA AU) are close adds but unlikely to make the cut for inclusion at the March rebalance.
• There will be a modest impact on the potential adds at the rebalance but the impact on some of the other names could be higher due to capping changes.

• Following the TSE restructure on 4 April, FTSE will include stocks that trade on the Prime Market and Standard Market as part of the eligible universe for index inclusion.
• We see 4 stocks meeting the requirements for inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index, and another 13 stocks meeting the requirements for inclusion in the FTSE All-Cap Index.
• There are stocks that have over 4 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Given the inclusions will take place in March 2023, its wait and watch for now.

• Changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), FTSE China50/A50/Taiwan50/EPRA Nareit, KRX New Deal Indices and the S&P/ASX family of indices were announced this week. 
• The Hang Seng indexes rebalanced Friday and the coming week will have LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)‘s Fast Entry into the KOSPI2 INDEX and implementation of the STAR50 INDEX changes. 
• NIO Inc (9866 HK)/ NIO Inc (NIO US) is expected to start trading in Hong Kong on 10 March and there are index implication for the Secondary Listing.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only). 
• This week, the highest gross spreads are Razer Inc (1337 HK), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Irongate Group (IAP AU), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 
• The lowest gross spreads are China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU), Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP), Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) 

• Bangkok Bank Public has underperformed Kasikornbank PCL over the short-term and over the last year as well. The price ratio is now trading at the low end of the recent range.
• The number of NVDRs issued on Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) have continued to decrease while increasing on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB). 
• Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) trades cheaper than Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) and there could outperform in the short-term.

• Following the TSE restructure on 4 April, FTSE will include stocks that trade on the Prime Market and Standard Market as part of the eligible universe for index inclusion.
• We see 4 stocks meeting the requirements for inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index, and another 13 stocks meeting the requirements for inclusion in the FTSE All-Cap Index.
• There are stocks that have over 4 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Given the inclusions will take place in March 2023, its wait and watch for now.

• SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) last week announced an offering of new shares and a secondary share sale by Z Holdings (4689 JP) of the bulk of its holdings.
• The Z Holdings sale coincides with a “new business alliance” between SRE and Yahoo. At first glance, it appears as if both sides have decided to rejig what they do.
• SRE has an interesting business model which is quite growthy. It is growthier than it planned and others expected, but the stock has fallen 70% in 3mos. It’s a buy.

• In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusions and deletions in the upcoming MSCI rebalance in May 2022. The next MSCI Korea rebalance will be announced on 12 May 2022.
• We believe that Hyundai Mipo, Hanwha Aerospace, and Daewoo Shipbuilding could increasingly be viewed as potential additions to MSCI Korea rebalance in May. 
• Green Cross Corp, Sk Chemicals Co, and Alteogen could increasingly be viewed as potential deletion candidates in the next MSCI Korea rebalance. 

• KRX officially announced the rebalancing results of the KOSPI Size Index Series. The effective date is March 11.
• Of these, new MidCap entrants are what matter the most. This rebalancing delivers a total of 26 new MidCap entrants.
• The three stocks shown below have ADTV of over ₩5B and passive flow x ADTV of 1.0x or higher: CJ Logistics, GS Retail, and Lotte Rental.

• The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has apparently lobbed a higher offer for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) and AGL has apparently rejected it.
• Confirmation from AGL is due tomorrow but given the previous bid was “ridiculously low”, “extremely undervalued” the company, and had “unserious” elements, expect the language to be similar.
• Next steps probably mean waiting for the De-Merger Circular due April but possibly May. In the meantime, this probably trades in a range.

• There are two changes for the S&P/ASX20, one change for the S&P/ASX50, four changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), while there are 14 adds/ 9 deletes to the S&P/ASX300. 
• While we had forecast nearly all the changes, there are a few surprises. The big one’s the inclusion of Santos Ltd in the ASX20 and the deletion of Block (SQ2 AU).
• Following its huge rally over the last few months, AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) is a double inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 and the S&P/ASX300 Index. Plus there are FTSE inflows.

• Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has been “virtually” for sale since October 2019 but it did not pop when others did then. But SG and HTS “consciously uncoupled” in 2020.
• Mid-Year last year saw news HTS was entertaining offers, which didn’t go anywhere but newer news suggests Round 2 of a new course of bidding is done. 
• And the stock keeps on going up and up and up.

• Global Liquidity is already falling from 2021 peaks. Not set to bottom until late-2023
• Central Bank tightening is reinforcing this decline. More to come
• Ukraine Crisis will not deflect the downtrend. More likely reinforces it

• On 3 March, the South Korean romance drama “Something in the Rain” was streamed on a Chinese online platform iQiyi. 
• This was the first time in five years that a Korean TV show has been approved by the Chinese government to be formally allowed to be shown in China.
• In addition, there has been numerous media news flow in the past week regarding China pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy.

• Changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), FTSE China50/A50/Taiwan50/EPRA Nareit, KRX New Deal Indices and the S&P/ASX family of indices were announced this week. 
• The Hang Seng indexes rebalanced Friday and the coming week will have LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)‘s Fast Entry into the KOSPI2 INDEX and implementation of the STAR50 INDEX changes. 
• NIO Inc (9866 HK)/ NIO Inc (NIO US) is expected to start trading in Hong Kong on 10 March and there are index implication for the Secondary Listing.

• The premium of Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) to TSMC (2330 TT) has dropped from 10% to nearly parity in slightly less than a month.
• There is still no headroom available on the ADR and we expect the premium to move higher once the selling on the ADR is complete.
• The SGX has recently launched single stock futures on Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US). There could be market makers willing to provide liquidity which would make trade entry easier.

• Korea’s local market estimates an inflow (resulting from the Russian departure) to Korea at ₩1T
• Most of the preferred stocks in MSCI Korea top the list with the highest passive buying ratios to the 30-day average trading value.
• Other than that, S1 Corp, Coway, Samsung SDS, C&T, and KT&G are the others that sit high on the list.

• Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has been “virtually” for sale since October 2019 but it did not pop when others did then. But SG and HTS “consciously uncoupled” in 2020.
• Mid-Year last year saw news HTS was entertaining offers, which didn’t go anywhere but newer news suggests Round 2 of a new course of bidding is done. 
• And the stock keeps on going up and up and up.

• 52.7%. The only number that matters. That satisfied the acceptance condition to the mandatory conditional cash Offer. But it was a close-run thing.
• The Offer is now unconditional and will remain open for acceptance until the 17 March. 
• Yili has no intention to privatise Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) and intends to maintain its listing following the close of the Offer.

• On the 10 January, China Infrastructure & Logistics Group (1719 HK) (“CILG”) has announced a possible MGO from Hubei Ports. The Composite Doc is now out. The Offer is open.
• This transaction is an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$1.15/share.
• The first – and likely, last close – is the 25 March.  The Offeror intends to maintain CILG’s listing.