Most Read

A state-owned Offeror pitching a lifetime high Offer Price – with a solid premium – for an illiquid company? Sounds like a slam dunk.
Yet property manager Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) has perennially traded wide to Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)‘s terms. This is not justified.
The Scheme Meeting/SGM is tomorrow (28 August), with payment on (or before) the 30 September. Or a gross/annualised return of 4%/46%. Buy here. Then buy some more.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Could Drop Some More

With the review period complete, Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) is a near certain deletion from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September.
Passive trackers will need to sell 20m shares in Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT). That is over 10% of float and the stock could continue to remain under pressure.
The potential deletion still appears to be under positioned. There could be renewed selling in the stock over the next few weeks.

Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

Today saw the publication of three different articles regarding the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) approach and offer to purchase all the shares of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)
The first in the Nikkei said ATD could push offer a high price, even up to ¥8 trillion. The second mentioned debt financing being feasible because of prodigious cash flow.
The third in Bloomberg noted that 7&i had requested the government upgrade its FEFTA status to “core”, which would lead to a more burdensome/restrictive government approval process.

Toyota Partial Offer Results – What Next?

Today after the close, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) reported the results of their ¥800bn Tender Offer Buyback, originally intended to repurchase 290.12mm shares from cross-holders.
In the end, 343.83mm shares were tendered (53.71mm shares more than originally expected, worth about ¥150bn at Tender Price). That creates back-end “issues” which must be considered.
The resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, I expect sees positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.

Kioxia IPO Early Re-Look – Better Placed This Time Around

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) aims to list in Japan by Oct 2024 at a valuation of over US$10bn, as per media reports.
Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers
In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Kioxia & Tokyo Metro: Japan’s Largest IPOs Since 2018 Expected This October

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Kioxia and Tokyo Metro with valuations of ~$10bn and ~$4.6bn are expected to be listed in October 2024 and become the largest Japanese IPOs since Softbank Corp (9434 JP) in 2018.
Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is currently forecasted to fail fast entries of both Global indices due to low IPO free float.
Tokyo Metro is expected to be added via fast-entry in one Global Index because of higher IPO free float. Forecasted demand of ~$140m is expected on the fifth trading day.

Huafa Prop (982 HK)’s CCASS Movements: Nothing To See Here

Ahead of Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)‘s Scheme Meeting tomorrow, the 28th August, 42.57% of shares outstanding moved out of CCASS on the 8th July.
One argument for Huafa trading wide-ish to terms is due to “suspicious” CCASS moves between the Offer announcement and the vote.
Some investors even cite the Golden Throat Holdings (6896 HK) debacle. This is not a Golden Throat situation. Not even close. It is decidedly less interesting and benign.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients

By Patrick Liao

TSMC’s top 5 clients for 2024 are Apple (AAPL US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US, Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).
Smartphone orders continue to dominate at TSMC, with QCOM and MediaTek being key clients.
Looking ahead to 2025, Intel Corp (INTC US) is expected to rely more on TSMC, potentially leading to changes in TSMC’s client ranking.

KOSPI 200 December Rebalancing: Key Points to Watch for in Proactive Position Build-Up

The momentum for getting ahead on positions with KOSPI 200 rebalancing is holding steady. With around 60% of the screening period behind us, it’s time to start preparing our positions.
The current rebalancing’s screened changes have a relatively lower price volatility, suggesting a stronger chance for more aggressive position build-up now compared to previous rebalancings.
Trading volumes vary greatly among these changes, affecting their passive impact sizes. Consider using different weights in basket trading instead of equal weights.

Understanding Potential Issues Within SK Group from Hynix’s Kioxia CB Conversion

Hynix’s potential 15% stake in Kioxia doesn’t violate the 20% rule because KFTC’s mandatory stake rule doesn’t apply to foreign investments.
SK Group may transfer Hynix’s 15% Kioxia stake to SK Square by splitting Hynix and merging its investment arm with SK Square for future AI investments.
SK Square may attract more attention than Hynix short-term, as Kioxia’s stake via Hynix could boost market expectations for value transfer to SK Square.

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Aug 27

Most Read: Shin Kong Financial Holding, Asia Cement China, Yamaha Motor, Zomato, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Shinko Electric Industries, Samsung Kodex Banks ETF, Huafa Property Services Group, PDD Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn’t Clean, And It’s A Bad Price
Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms
Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) – Secondary Offering as Toyota Sells Down – Easy To Digest
Zomato: Index Inclusions & Passive Impact (Once Added to F&O)
Henlius (2696 HK): Was There Any Doubt?
Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk
KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents
Huafa Property (982 HK): Buy With Both Hands
Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed
PDD (PDD US): Stock Plunged After Excellent 2Q24 Result – Your Time to Buy

Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn’t Clean, And It’s A Bad Price

After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced they would merge.
The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That’s bad.
There’s history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.

Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms

Back on the 5th June, Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) announced a rubbish HK$3.22/share Offer from its parent Asia Cement (1102 TT).
This best & final cash Offer was a ~ 45% premium to undisturbed, and a 37% discount to FY23’s net cash. It’s a 39% discount to 1H24’s net cash.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a 26th August independent shareholder vote. And payment (if it were to occur) on 20th September. The IFA (unsurprisingly) says fair and reasonable.

Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) – Secondary Offering as Toyota Sells Down – Easy To Digest

On Firday 23 August, Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced that three cross-holders would sell about 4.6% of the shares out in a secondary sale.
MS&AD was expected. Toyota was probably expected. Yamaha Corp is a bit of a surprise. But it also frees up Yamaha Motor to sell down cross-holdings (top 2 are Toyota/Yamaha).
Given the price/guidance/dividend yield and limited size, this should be quite easy to place.

Zomato: Index Inclusions & Passive Impact (Once Added to F&O)

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) has a market cap of over US$27bn but is not a member of the NIFTY Index and S&P BSE SENSEX Index since it is not an F&O member.
Once SEBI’s proposed and enhanced stock inclusion thresholds are implemented, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) should be added to the F&O segment of the market.
Passive NIFTY Index and S&P BSE SENSEX Index will have to buy a lot of Zomato stock at subsequent rebalances. The impact will be higher given the lower real float.

Henlius (2696 HK): Was There Any Doubt?

Roughly six weeks ago, Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced the scrip option condition was met. Just that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) (the Offeror) was weighing its options
This situation mirrored L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s (eventual) scrip option. And in place of Pleasant Lake in that transaction; Henlius has Loyal Valley Capital (5.8309% shareholder) behind the scenes.
Late Friday, Henlius updated the terms of Fosun’s Offer to now include the scrip option alternative. We expected nothing less. 1H24 results will also be out later today.

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

Today after the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally “scheduled” to start in late August 2024.
“Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed” so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.
The announcement appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.

KRX Value-Up Index Will Have Two Separate Indices, Excellent & Promising, With 150 Constituents

KRX plans to launch the Value-Up Index as two separate indices: the “Excellent Value-Up Index” and the “Promising Value-Up Index.”
The universe will include 150 constituents from KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150. Allocation between indices is undecided, with sector limits on number and weight confirmed.
The key indicators (ROE, PBR, shareholder return rate) remain unchanged. The Promising Index’s weights are undisclosed, but the Excellent Index favors financial and automotive stocks.

Huafa Property (982 HK): Buy With Both Hands

A state-owned Offeror pitching a lifetime high Offer Price – with a solid premium – for an illiquid company? Sounds like a slam dunk.
Yet property manager Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) has perennially traded wide to Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)‘s terms. This is not justified.
The Scheme Meeting/SGM is tomorrow (28 August), with payment on (or before) the 30 September. Or a gross/annualised return of 4%/46%. Buy here. Then buy some more.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The tender start has been delayed from late August to around late January 2025.
The delay was due to outstanding China SAMR and Vietnam regulatory approvals. The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal.
While Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s underperformance lowers the deal’s break price, timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/7.5%.

PDD (PDD US): Stock Plunged After Excellent 2Q24 Result – Your Time to Buy

By Ming Lu

The stock plunged today after the announcement of excellent performance for 2Q24.
In 2Q24, revenue grew by 86% YoY and the operating margin improved 10 percentage points YoY.
We believe investors should buy, as it is just a tactic from major stock sellers.

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Aug 26

Most Read: ESR Group , Shin Kong Financial Holding, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Trent Ltd, Hitachi Energy India, Shift Inc, Divi’s Laboratories, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Zomato, Yamaha Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces
Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn’t Clean, And It’s A Bad Price
Korea FSS Chief Calls for 10% Premium/Discount on Doosan Merger, Boosting Swap Spread to 30%
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Trent, BEL to Replace Divi’s Lab, LTIMindtree
NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow
Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway
Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines
Zomato: Index Inclusions & Passive Impact (Once Added to F&O)
Yamaha Motors Placement – A Relatively Small Cross-Shareholding Unwind

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).
While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders.
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.

Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn’t Clean, And It’s A Bad Price

After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced they would merge.
The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That’s bad.
There’s history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.

Korea FSS Chief Calls for 10% Premium/Discount on Doosan Merger, Boosting Swap Spread to 30%

FSS Governor Lee challenged the legality of the Robotics-Bobcat merger ratio, citing Article 176-5 of the Capital Markets Act, allowing a 10% premium or discount.
Following the FSS Governor’s statements, Doosan must likely apply a 10% premium/discount to the Robotics-Bobcat merger, creating a 30% spread based on current stock prices.
Doosan may still revise or cancel the merger, but the FSS Governor’s comments might boost Bobcat short-term. Given the uncertainty, aggressive trading is risky.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Trent, BEL to Replace Divi’s Lab, LTIMindtree

Trent (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) will replace LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) and Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the close on 27 September.
Passive trackers will need to trade at least 5 days of ADV and over 11 days of delivery volume in the stocks.
All the index changes are also changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and there will be opposing flows (though much smaller in size) for the stocks.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.

Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway

By Michael Allen

A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift’s overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030.
But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer.
In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.
There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted.
All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

There are 7 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 27 September. Changes are on expected lines.
Estimated one-way turnover for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) is 19.6% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). Many stocks have over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year but there has been big underperformance over the last month as stocks expected to benefit from rural spending have rallied.

Zomato: Index Inclusions & Passive Impact (Once Added to F&O)

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) has a market cap of over US$27bn but is not a member of the NIFTY Index and S&P BSE SENSEX Index since it is not an F&O member.
Once SEBI’s proposed and enhanced stock inclusion thresholds are implemented, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) should be added to the F&O segment of the market.
Passive NIFTY Index and S&P BSE SENSEX Index will have to buy a lot of Zomato stock at subsequent rebalances. The impact will be higher given the lower real float.

Yamaha Motors Placement – A Relatively Small Cross-Shareholding Unwind

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).
This will be another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise, although the stock hasn’t been doing particularly well lately.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Aug 25

Most Read: JD.com , Westgold Resources, Techwing Inc, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, ESR Group , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Vector, Canara Bank, CMES AI Robotics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October
China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in Sep
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: APM Human Services, TCM, Alps Logistics, Fancl, Jeisys Medical, PropertyGuru
ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces
Henlius (2696 HK): Share Alternative Facilitates the Vote
Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?
NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance: Canara Bank IN; Bandhan Bank OUT
CMES AI Robotics IPO Preview

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October

With the start of the review period around the corner, there could be two changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the October rebalance.
Wonik Ips (240810 KS) and Techwing Inc (089030 KS) are potential adds while ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS) and Dongjin Semichem (005290 KS) are potential deletes.
Passives will need to trade more than 2x ADV on two potential changes and more than 1x ADV on another potential change.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in Sep

With the review cutoff done, there should be two changes for the CSOP FTSE China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) / iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK) ETFs in September.
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025 CH) and China National Nuclear Power (601985 CH) should replace China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) and Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999 CH).
China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) will be deleted from a global index later this month and there could be some opportunities to trade the A/H arb.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: APM Human Services, TCM, Alps Logistics, Fancl, Jeisys Medical, PropertyGuru

I tally 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Two new deals were discussed this week: Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)‘s non-binding proposal for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).; and EQT’s Offer for PropertyGuru (PGRU US).
Key updates took place on APM Human Services (APM AU), TCM (570 HK), GaPack (468 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS).

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).
While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders.
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.

Henlius (2696 HK): Share Alternative Facilitates the Vote

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) announced the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) share alternative offer, subject to proration due to a cap of 8% of outstanding shares.
The share alternative offer was necessary to facilitate the vote as the HK$24.60 offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price.
The co-founders, HenLink and LVC, will likely tender some or all their shares for scrip. At the last close and for the December-end payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/17.9%.

Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.
The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.
Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance: Canara Bank IN; Bandhan Bank OUT

In line with our forecast, Canara Bank (CBK IN) will replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the close on 27 September.
Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) will be deleted from a global index at the close on 31 August, so real float will increase a lot over the next month.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) and sell 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN).

CMES AI Robotics IPO Preview

CMES AI Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in October. The expected IPO price is 20,000 won to 24,000 won.
CMES provides intelligent robot solutions that combine artificial intelligence (AI) and three-dimensional (3D) vision technology. CMES’s core technologies include 3D vision sensors and image processing algorithms.
Robotics related IPOs have generated enormous interest in Korea. Although CMES is a small cap name, this robotics related IPO is also likely to garner high interest as well.

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Aug 24

Most Read: Alibaba Group Holding , Seven & I Holdings, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hanwha Galleria , Hanwha Corporation, Innovent Biologics Inc, Hanwha Aerospace, Grifols SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows
Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security
TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie
A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun
StubWorld: More Partial Offers In The Hanwha Group Complex
Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio
Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension
Examining the Severity of Proration Risk in the Hanwha Galleria Tender Offer
Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.

Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security

The largest potential inbound cross-border M&A in years – for a national champion no less – gets a lot of press coverage.
This morning, a Nikkei article noted Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) was likely to need “prior approval” from Japanese regulatory authorities for its takeover “the Nikkei has learned.”
It wasn’t difficult for the Nikkei to learn that. METI publishes a FEFTA List. 7&i has been on it for years as Type II Designated Business, requiring prior approval.

TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) flagged a 60-70% drop in its 1H24E net profit versus 1H23, due to reduced sales/profit of TCM concentrate, bad debt provisions, and remedial taxes.
MAC triggers? No – Sinopharm won’t exercise such right, even if one was ostensibly triggered. I’d be surprised if Sinopharm wasn’t fully aware of TCM’s underlying operations.
Get involved on any dips today. Trading wide at a 11.7%/38.7% gross/annualised spread, assuming Dec-end payment.

A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun

It was announced that a tender offer to purchase a 17.54% stake in Hanwha Galleria has been launched by Kim Dong-Sun (Vice President at Hanwha Galleria).
Tender offer price is 1,600 won per share, which is 22.8% higher than the closing price on 22 August. Tender offer amount is 54.4 billion won.
On 23 August, Hanwha Galleria’s share price is likely to rise close to the tender offer price as many investors believe the tender offer is likely to be successful.

StubWorld: More Partial Offers In The Hanwha Group Complex

After the Kim family-backed Hanwha Energy completed Hanwha Corporation‘s Partial Offer last month, Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS)‘s VP Kim Dong-seon has now launched a Partial Offer for 17.5% in Galleria.
Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

By Avien Pillay

Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.
In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.
Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.

Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension

KRX announced that both Hanwha Aerospace and the new Hanwha Industrial Solutions will be added to the KOSPI 200.
Since 2020, two K200 spinoffs had both companies remain: DL Holdings and DL E&C in January 2021, and SK Telecom and SK Square in November 2021, with notable value increases.
This trade isn’t risk-free and requires a sophisticated hedge setup, but the trading opportunities from this flow situation are worth close attention.

Examining the Severity of Proration Risk in the Hanwha Galleria Tender Offer

The Hanwha Galleria tender offer has no cancellation risk but carries proration risk, keeping the spread at around 7%.
For Hanwha Galleria, most floating shares are held by retail investors, and the smaller float size compared to Hansol Logistics further reduces proration risk.
Even though the actual trading volume might be a concern, it’s still worth thinking about going for an aggressive strategy to take advantage of the spread, which is around 7%.

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of Grifols SA (GRF SM).
Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.
The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.

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Aug 23

Most Read: Alibaba Group Holding , JD.com , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Seven & I Holdings, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Westgold Resources, Workday Inc Class A, SK Innovation, Eoflow, Hanwha Galleria and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk
Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security
TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes
Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows
NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S
Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe
A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here.

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk

To say Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s management and Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) don’t get along is an understatement. GAPack has labelled XJF’s pre-conditional Offer hostile and unwelcome.
Last night (6th August), co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. No price was mentioned. Collectively they hold 14.72% of shares out compared to XJF’s 26.8%.
A firm Offer (and price) would have been welcome, and this probably reflects on-going funding negotiations. But the announcement will give minorities pause if/when tendering into XJF’s Offer.

Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security

The largest potential inbound cross-border M&A in years – for a national champion no less – gets a lot of press coverage.
This morning, a Nikkei article noted Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) was likely to need “prior approval” from Japanese regulatory authorities for its takeover “the Nikkei has learned.”
It wasn’t difficult for the Nikkei to learn that. METI publishes a FEFTA List. 7&i has been on it for years as Type II Designated Business, requiring prior approval.

TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) flagged a 60-70% drop in its 1H24E net profit versus 1H23, due to reduced sales/profit of TCM concentrate, bad debt provisions, and remedial taxes.
MAC triggers? No – Sinopharm won’t exercise such right, even if one was ostensibly triggered. I’d be surprised if Sinopharm wasn’t fully aware of TCM’s underlying operations.
Get involved on any dips today. Trading wide at a 11.7%/38.7% gross/annualised spread, assuming Dec-end payment.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.

NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S

NPS will vote against the merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S, mainly due to significant concerns about destroying shareholder value (especially for SK Innovation shareholders).
Sustinvest also recommended that institutional investors vote against this merger, citing that the merger ratio between SK Innovation and SK E&S is disadvantageous to SK Innovation’s general shareholders.
If NPS exercises its appraisal rights, this could put a knife in the wheel of the M&A merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S.

Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe

Eoflow announced Insulet had filed an injunction on 3 July against Eoflow and Menarini requesting a ban on the manufacture, sale, distribution, and use of EOPatch in 17 European countries.
Given that Eoflow should have reported this event earlier, this is likely to result in further loss of confidence on Eoflow by many investors in the near term.
If Eoflow is able to complete its rights offering (albeit lower amount than proposed), this could boost its chances to become a formidable competitor to Insulet on a global basis.

A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun

It was announced that a tender offer to purchase a 17.54% stake in Hanwha Galleria has been launched by Kim Dong-Sun (Vice President at Hanwha Galleria).
Tender offer price is 1,600 won per share, which is 22.8% higher than the closing price on 22 August. Tender offer amount is 54.4 billion won.
On 23 August, Hanwha Galleria’s share price is likely to rise close to the tender offer price as many investors believe the tender offer is likely to be successful.

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Aug 22

Most Read: JD.com , Hang Seng Index, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guzman Y Gomez, Webjet Ltd, Techwing Inc, Eoflow, Alps Logistics, LG Electronics, DB Hitek Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)
China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands
Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October
Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]
Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple
LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index
Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes.
The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM’s profits or prospects.
If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote.

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger

Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU) announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger.
If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October

With the start of the review period around the corner, there could be two changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the October rebalance.
Wonik Ips (240810 KS) and Techwing Inc (089030 KS) are potential adds while ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS) and Dongjin Semichem (005290 KS) are potential deletes.
Passives will need to trade more than 2x ADV on two potential changes and more than 1x ADV on another potential change.

Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]

After the market close on 21 August, Eoflow (294090 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 9.1 million new shares, representing share dilution of 23%.
Based on the expected rights offering issue price of 9,040 won, the company is expected to raise 82.2 billion won in this capital raise.
Eoflow has monthly cash burn rate of about 3.3 billion won. If the rights offering is successful, it would have adequate capital resources for about a couple of years.

Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple

The Logisteed/KKR entity received its approvals between the last week of July and this past week, and told Alps Logistics (9055 JP) it wanted to launch its tender 22 August.
It will do so. Approvals were reasonably quick (as expected) and the Special Committee and Board decided nothing material had changed. No reason to change their opinion.
This is still a HUGE price. And everyone will be out by mid-October if they want. This is an easy deal. And a GIGANTIC win for minorities.

LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index

LG Electronics aims for 7% growth, a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple, and a ₩1,000 DPS with a 25% payout ratio, likely disclosing details by late October or early November.
LG Electronics’ value-up disclosure highlights major non-financial companies’ participation before the value-up index launch, driven by regulatory pressure and concerns about index inclusion.
Samsung and Hyundai are likely to disclose value-up plans by early September, prompting an upward revision of flow size predictions for the value-up index launch.

Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

From early June until yesterday, local pension funds have purchased nearly 4% of DB HiTek’s SO. This places DB HiTek in a dominant first position in their net buying list.
The timing of local pension funds beginning to buy DB HiTek coincidentally aligns with May 22, when DB Inc was requested by the KFTC to transition into a holding company.
Focus on potential price impact from DB Inc.’s buying and value-up index inflows. Considering a relative overweight in DB HiTek may be strategic despite some risk.

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Aug 21

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Hang Seng Index, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Colowide Co Ltd, KB Financial ADR, Iriso Electronics, Guzman Y Gomez and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)
Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications
Colowide Placement – Needs a Very Large Correction
Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line
COLOWIDE (7616) – UGLY Register On Expensive Co Needs a Capital Construct Upgrade, Won’t Get It Here
Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility
Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
7&i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close).
Now things get complicated. 7&i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.

Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications

This final guideline formalizes earlier drafts by the FSS. Though not strictly mandatory, its detailed requirements mean it functions as a de facto rule that must be followed closely.
The new, stringent requirements are likely to eliminate common stock borrowing practices in Korea, making timely transactions difficult.
New trading patterns and market flows may emerge when short selling resumes in April, with increased importance of borrow balance data and potential rise in counter-flow trading.

Colowide Placement – Needs a Very Large Correction

Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) aims to raise around US$230m in order to fund its prospective M&A transactions over the next few years
While the company has undertaken a number of M&A transactions in the past, it hasn’t clearly stated its intended targets for this round.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

It was reported yesterday that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) has put forward a bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
The offer price remains undisclosed, but the market may be anticipating a significant premium based on the share price movement following the news.
However, we believe the offer price could fall short of market expectations, and it is likely that Seven & i will reject the proposal.

COLOWIDE (7616) – UGLY Register On Expensive Co Needs a Capital Construct Upgrade, Won’t Get It Here

Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) is an industrial fastish-food operator in Japan. They sell several dozen kinds of cuisine under several dozen brands, owned and franchised in Japan and overseas.
The company “philosophy” is “Everything we do is for our customers and employees.” The stock is up 30% in 10yrs. It pays no dividend, but it pays a big yutairimawari.
This means Real World Float is 100% owned by retail who want restaurant coupons. This offering will be bought by index, short covers, and another 20-30k coupon holders.

Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.
If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.
We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami’s entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in Iriso Electronics (6908 JP). The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.
Murakami’s average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.
Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

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Aug 20

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Tokyo Metro, Weimob Inc., Apple , PropertyGuru , Peptron, Lumir, China Tower and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises
Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere
Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500
EQT’s Offer For PropertyGuru (NYSE:PGRU): As Clean As It Gets
Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity
Lumir IPO Preview
FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
7&i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close).
Now things get complicated. 7&i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter.

Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID

Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP)’s shareholders, the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments, could look to raise up to US$2bn by selling half of their stake via an IPO.
Tokyo Metro is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines.
In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.

Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) held over 5% of Apple (AAPL US). Nearly half of that was sold in the June quarter to take the holding to 2.63%.
Berkshire’s selling should result in an increase in Apple (AAPL US)‘s free float in the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and other related indices.
There will also be large buying in Apple (AAPL US) from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF if the proposals in the market consultation are implemented.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.

Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&P 500 and other US and Global indices after Berkshire halved its stake in Apple (AAPL US) .
Forecasted demand from S&P 500 and S&P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.
Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast.

EQT’s Offer For PropertyGuru (NYSE:PGRU): As Clean As It Gets

Listed on the 18th March 2022 at US$8.33/share, Singaporean-based online real estate portal PropertyGuru (PGRU US) has now announced a US$6.70/share cash Offer from Sweden’s EQT AB.
That backs out a premium to undisturbed of 52%. Media speculation of a takeover for the TPG/KKR-backed PropertyGuru first surfaced around the 21st May this year.
TPG and KKR, collectively holding ~56.1%, are supportive. REA Group Ltd (REA AU), holding 17.2%, is also on board. The key Offer condition is two-thirds of shareholders approving terms.

Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity

Peptron’s lack of single-stock futures means no risk-free arbitrage but also less speculative selling, making the 25% discount an attractive outright position opportunity.
The low capital increase rate may stabilize the stock price, and more forfeited shares could lower the cost of securing subscription rights during the trading window.
Consider buying rights during the trading period or targeting forfeited shares. Conservatively estimate the final offering price range to set a profitable cost for securing rights.

Lumir IPO Preview

Lumir is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. The IPO which is expected to raise between 49.5 billion won to 61.5 billion won.
Lumir specializes in the development of observation satellite technology including image data processing devices and onboard computers for a number of government satellite series.
Lumir had sales of 12.1 billion won (up 90.5% YoY) in 2023. Its sales surged by 477% YoY to reach 8.2 billion won in 1H24.

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in September.
China Tower (788 HK) is a high probability inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a high probability deletion.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.

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Aug 19

Most Read: Sun Corp, CPMC Holdings, Weimob Inc., ASM Pacific Technology, Tencent, J&T Global Express , Hang Seng Index, Apple and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sun Corp (6736) – The Future Is Bright
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises
HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises
HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)
Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal – No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow – Total 0️⃣🍔
HSCEI Sep24 Rebal – Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)
Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation
Sep24 HSTECH Index Rebal – ASMPT (522 HK) ADDed as Expected, After Post-Earnings Fall

Sun Corp (6736) – The Future Is Bright

The reason why Sun Corp (6736 JP) has traditionally traded at a large discount to its potential outcome is the possibility of inefficient or delayed value realisation.
Materially ALL of the value of the company is in its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). True Wind Capital, the SPAC sponsor of CLBT, just bought 19% of SunCorp.
They bought that for the CLBT, or the value realisation thereof. And now with the slightly surprising Tender Offer result, the chances of a better outcome are now higher.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

J&T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will replace JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime (20 HK) in the HSCEI at the close on 6 September.
The inclusion of J&T Global Express (1519 HK) is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.
The non-inclusion of PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)

As expected, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) will replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 6 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.5bn. Passives need to buy over 7x ADV in ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).
Positioning appears light in both stocks. Expect ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) to move up and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) to move lower near-term.

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal – No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow – Total 0️⃣🍔

The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.
This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes.
Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September.

HSCEI Sep24 Rebal – Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows

The HSCEI is famous but has less AUM tracking it passively than you’d think. Nevertheless it is well-known and well-watched.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) were ADDs. JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime Group (20 HK) are DELETEs.
PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK) was NOT included. This was a surprise. We may see some disappointment this week from pre-positioning getting sold.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.

Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) held over 5% of Apple (AAPL US). Nearly half of that was sold in the June quarter to take the holding to 2.63%.
Berkshire’s selling should result in an increase in Apple (AAPL US)‘s free float in the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and other related indices.
There will also be large buying in Apple (AAPL US) from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF if the proposals in the market consultation are implemented.

Sep24 HSTECH Index Rebal – ASMPT (522 HK) ADDed as Expected, After Post-Earnings Fall