Category

Daily Briefs

Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Financials: HKEX, S&P 500 INDEX, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, ZEEKR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi
  • EQD | Here Is Why the S&P500 MONTHLY Rally Could Continue in December
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales
  • ECM Weekly (19th Nov 2023)- Asahi, Ajinomoto, Steadfast, Karoon, Wuxi, Ecopro, Zeekr, Tata Tech

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

By Brian Freitas

  • The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
  • The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
  • Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.

EQD | Here Is Why the S&P500 MONTHLY Rally Could Continue in December

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX will probably continue to rally in December (as long as the November rally does not reach extreme OVERBOUGHT conditions.
  • The OVERBOUGHT condition begins at around 4600, so the index is NOT overbought (yet).
  • The index will probably pullback soon for 1 or 2 weeks and then you can buy to ride the continuation of the rally into December (classic Christmas Rally).

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

By Eric Wen

  • Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.
  • We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales.

ECM Weekly (19th Nov 2023)- Asahi, Ajinomoto, Steadfast, Karoon, Wuxi, Ecopro, Zeekr, Tata Tech

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, WuXi XDC ended up doing well, as expected. Now Tata Technologies will be another one to watch.
  • The placements continued to flow in this week as well, with both Australia and Japan deals coming relatively thick and fast, at least by 2023’s pace.

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Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: XPeng , JD Health International , Tencent Music and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain
  • [JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$52) TP Change]: A COVID Hiccup but Environment Is Turning Positive
  • [Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain

By Eric Wen

  • XPeng C3Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in line, 28% and 68% worse than our estimates, main reason is G3’s End-Of-Production charge to the gross margin
  • We expect XPEV to experience tough transition in 2024 since product line which spans across sedan and SUV, shall experience severe competition at a time when its differentiation is eroding.
  • We prefer to wait out this period; we cut TP of XPEV from US$18 to US$9 and downgrade to SELL.

[JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$52) TP Change]: A COVID Hiccup but Environment Is Turning Positive

By Eric Wen

  • JDH reported C3Q23 top line and non-IFRS operating profit that are 39% and 34% of our C2H23 estimates. We cut C2H23 top line, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income.
  • We keep 2024 top line unchanged but cut non-IFRS operating profit by 31% as we believe JDH might need to invest to explore new growth opportunities;
  • We cut TP from US$65 to US$52 but maintain BUY.

[Tencent Music (TME US, BUY, TP US$9.7) Rating Change]: Unique Content Unlocked Paying Potential

By Ying Pan

  • TME reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income inline, 12.9%, 2.3% vs. consensus. The bottom-line beat mainly due to the cost-effective operation and music subscription services.
  • We notice TME has become less reliable on live streaming and more on monetizing its user base through ARPU enhancement
  • We upgraded TME to BUY and raised the target price to US$ 9.7, implying a 21.1x PE ratio compared to its current trading at 17.8x in 2024.

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Nov 19
0

Most Read: GMO Payment Gateway, Adaro Energy, Shriram Finance , Benesse Holdings, Eoptolink Technology , Hygon Information Technology C, Ninebot , Tencent, iSoftStone Information Technology Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, Yuanta Div+, LIT, HSCI, IDX, Japan Positioning
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI
  • Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, Yuanta Div+, LIT, HSCI, IDX, Japan Positioning

By Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we see 9 stocks in inclusion zone and 10 in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.7% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.86bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • Apart from being added to the SSE50 Index, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) could also be added to other local/global indices over the next few weeks and months.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

By Brian Freitas

Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Just before the close Friday, the Nikkei reported Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) would be the subject of an MBO in order to restructure the flagging private shinken-zemi business. And grow.
  • It turns out it is EQT and the Fukutake family at ¥2600/share – a 2-year high. Wow. It is also a ridiculously cheap price given the assets and money flows.
  • I expect this may get some people upset as the valuation methodology is dodgy and the artful (hehehe) Balance Sheet has some easter eggs, and spotted pumpkins… or something. 

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
  • Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
  • The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
  • Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
  • With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
  • SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

By Brian Freitas

  • Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.
  • Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI post market close.
  • Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the index at the close on 8 December.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 9.66% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.36bn. There are 29 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • The potential deletes have outperformed the potential adds over the last 6 months though there has been a narrowing of the gap recently. Position for a further narrowing.

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Nov 19
0

Top 10 Highlights from the APAC PE, VC and Startup Ecosystem this Week – 19 Nov 2023

By | Private Markets, Smartkarma Newswire

Top ten highlights from the APAC PE, VC, and startup ecosystem this week:

  1. Singapore Continues to Dominate Southeast Asia’s Venture Funding Landscape
    – Singapore startups secured 64% of the region’s total deal volume in the first nine months of 2023.
  2. SE Asia’s October Fundraising Falls Short of $1 Billion Mark
    – Startups in Southeast Asia raised only $663 million in October, below the desired goal of $1 billion.
  3. US-based Warburg Pincus Bullish on Vietnam’s Private Healthcare and Education Sectors
    – Warburg Pincus sees potential opportunities in Vietnam’s healthcare and education industries.
  4. Saison Capital Highlights the Advantage of Backing First-Time GPs in Uncertain Markets
    – Saison Capital believes that supporting first-time general partners (GPs) can be advantageous in unpredictable markets.
  5. Allianz Global Investors Turns Strategic Focus to High-Growth Markets
    – Allianz Global Investors’ Asia private credit business prioritizes India and Southeast Asia for investment opportunities.
  6. Carlyle Group Lowers Target for Pan-Asia Private Equity Fund
    – Carlyle Group reduces its target for its latest pan-Asia private equity fund due to a slowing global economy.
  7. BPEA EQT in Talks to Acquire Stake in Digital Transformation Consulting Firm Trianz Holdings
    – EQT’s Asian private equity arm is in discussions to invest in Trianz Holdings, a global digital transformation consulting and technology services firm.
  8. Pantheon Launches Global Private Equity Fund to International Investors
    – Pantheon introduces the Pantheon Global Private Equity Fund to private and institutional investors across more than 20 countries.
  9. Dutch Bank FMO Considers $10 Million Investment in Vietnam-focused PE Fund
    – FMO contemplates investing $10 million in the second private equity fund of Asia Business Builders (ABB), which focuses on Vietnam.
  10. OBOR Management Sells Strategic Stake to CIM and Tanncam Investment in Cambodia
    – OBOR Management, a Cambodia-based investment firm, sells a 40% stake to Cambodian Investment Management (CIM) and Singapore-based Tanncam Investment.

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