Category

Daily Briefs

May 05
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Makino Milling Machine Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet

By Arun George

Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Based on experience with “TSE’s request,” it’s impossible to request the same level of disclosure from every company. Companies that overseas investors can target should be requested to disclose proactively.
  • This “FSA’s request” is expected to potentially cause companies to lose the effectiveness of the tactics they have used to control AGMs. Future steps are expected.
  • The slowdown in profit margin growth may also increase calls for improved corporate governance practices, with more companies reducing cross-shareholdings and launching stronger shareholder returns.

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JSW Infrastructure, Makino Milling Machine Co, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Amaero International Ltd, S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries
  • ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
  • Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push
  • Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
  • Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
  • Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet

By Arun George

Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • AFCONS debuted on the NSE on 4 November 2024. As of 2 May 2025, the price was 420 INR resulting in a market cap of ~$1.8bn.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to be added to Global-F at the June 2025 review with a free float of 31.7% following the 3-month lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to experience a free float increase in Global-M from 35% to 45% at the August 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry of the pre-IPO shareholders.

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
  • On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
  • Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
  • Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
  • Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BP PLC, Petroleos Mexicanos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
  • Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
  • Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
  • Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
  • YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI

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May 05
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Smartpay Holdings, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Silicon Motion Technology, Airtasker and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning
  • Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

By Arun George

  • On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
  • Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)). 
  • Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

By Patrick Liao

  • We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
  • The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
  • Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 

Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
  • SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
  • Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.

Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
  • ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
  • Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
  • Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill

By Arun George

Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Based on experience with “TSE’s request,” it’s impossible to request the same level of disclosure from every company. Companies that overseas investors can target should be requested to disclose proactively.
  • This “FSA’s request” is expected to potentially cause companies to lose the effectiveness of the tactics they have used to control AGMs. Future steps are expected.
  • The slowdown in profit margin growth may also increase calls for improved corporate governance practices, with more companies reducing cross-shareholdings and launching stronger shareholder returns.

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Financials: Chongqing Rural Commercial Ban, S&P Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade
  • Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index during this index review based on the latest available data.

Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

By Richard Howe

  • S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.

  • This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.

  • The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Akeso Biopharma Inc, CF PharmTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge
  • Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition

China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.
  • Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.
  • Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.

Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Unlike most biotech companies in Hong Kong which focus on innovative drugs, CF PharmTech mainly produces generic drugs. Its revenue mainly comes from CF017, with high single product risk.
  • The pipelines have to face fierce competition and don’t have advantage in R&D progress in from of competing candidates. CF PharmTech is hard to generate decent profits due to VBP. 
  • Since its establishment, CF PharmTech has raised its valuation step by step through multiple rounds of capital increase and equity transfer.Valuation was RMB4.021 billion in 2022, which is already high.

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May 05
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JSW Infrastructure, Makino Milling Machine Co, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Amaero International Ltd, S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries
  • ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
  • Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push
  • Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
  • Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
  • Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet

By Arun George

Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • AFCONS debuted on the NSE on 4 November 2024. As of 2 May 2025, the price was 420 INR resulting in a market cap of ~$1.8bn.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to be added to Global-F at the June 2025 review with a free float of 31.7% following the 3-month lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to experience a free float increase in Global-M from 35% to 45% at the August 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry of the pre-IPO shareholders.

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
  • On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
  • Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
  • Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
  • Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

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May 04
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 2nd): Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 2nd): Meituan, Tencent, Ping An Insurance, BYD, SMIC, China Mobile

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 2nd): Meituan, Tencent, Ping An Insurance, BYD, SMIC, China Mobile

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 2nd.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Ping An Insurance, BYD, SMIC, China Mobile.

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May 04
0

Daily Brief ECM: CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
  • In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.  
  • In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

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