Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: PCCW Ltd, Meituan, Tencent, Krafton Inc, KT Corp, DB Hitek Co., Ltd., Amazon.com Inc, Groww, Texas Instruments, Kingsoft Cloud and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022
  • Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading
  • A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)
  • KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System
  • Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek
  • Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point
  • Groww Tearsheet – Simplifying Investments and Savings
  • Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments
  • Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing

Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Companies (Amendment) Act 2021 of the Cayman Islands (Amendment Act), which will come into force on 31 August 2022, will abolish the current ‘headcount test’.
  • Those companies incorporated in the Cayman Islands, and subject to a members’ Scheme of Arrangement, were previously required to satisfy the headcount test under section 86 of the Companies Act.
  • This development clarifies previous uncertainty/ambiguity which could arise, with ‘take private’ deals of Cayman-incorporated, Hong Kong-listed companies, where a Scheme is the favoured privatisation path.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for August batch. More games were approved in August compared to July and June.
  • Pace of China game approval continued to pick up albeit at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease will be under increasing pressure as the duo continue to score zero in August, making it the fourth time with no games approved since resumption . 

A Pair Trade Between Krafton & NCsoft (India’s Crackdown on Krafton’s BGMI)

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous news accounts about the Indian government cracking down on Krafton’s Battlegrounds Mobile India (BGMI) game.
  • We believe there are several reasons why Indian government is cracking down on BGMI including concerns about this game potentially leading to greater violence among children and ties to Tencent.
  • At current valuation levels, we like a pair trade between Krafton (go short) and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) (go long).

KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

By Douglas Kim

  • Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS Cable & System.
  • Once the KT Submarine deal is completed, this could positively impact KT Corp’s dividends.
  • KT Corp’s selling of its controlling stake in KT Submarine would fit along its restructuring plans to sell off some businesses that are considered non-core.

Minority Shareholders Go Activist on DB Hitek

By Douglas Kim

  • The minority shareholders of DB Hitek have started to go activist on the company. They are initially requesting the company to get access to its shareholder list.
  • Many minority shareholders are suspicious that DB Inc may be trying to intentionally lower the share price of DB Hitek through a physical division split off.
  • DB Hitek’s share price has declined nearly 48% since its 52 week highs in January 2022. The valuation multiples of the company have declined to more attractive levels. 

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

By Aaron Gabin

  • Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22’s guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22’s outperformance.
  • Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22’s 7% leading to 3Q22’s 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
  • AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.

Groww Tearsheet – Simplifying Investments and Savings

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Groww (1573648D IN) is a wealth management and investment platform designed to simplify investing especially for first-time investors. 
  • Channel feedback indicates Groww’s simple UI, and lower cost/fees as the primary reasons for them investing via the platform. 
  • Revenues have seen a COVID-led sharp jump, and growth with low marketing expenses and operational profitability offer a compelling narrative. 

Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this quarter.
  • Among major developments, Texas Instruments has recently broken the ground on the new semiconductor plants of 300-mm for water fabrication in Sherman, Texas.
  • Texas Instruments has a strong balance sheet and the management continues investing in building capacity.

Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) is the largest independent cloud service provider in China in terms of revenue in 2021 and its clientele includes the likes of ByteDance and Xiaomi.
  • KC is listed in NASDAQ and has filed for a dual primary listing on HKEx and has not disclosed the amount that it plans to raise from the stock issuance.
  • We are broadly positive on the company’s growth prospects and discuss the details below.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SenseTime Group, Meituan, Tencent, Honda Tsushin Kogyo, iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Route Mobile, Lasertec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next
  • Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet
  • China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh
  • Minebea Mitsumi Tender for Honda Tsushin Kogyo (6826)
  • Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys
  • Route Mobile Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Lasertec (6920) | Mind the Guidance Gap

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next

By Brian Freitas

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK) stock has been crushed following the lock-up expiry at the end of June with the stock now trading 40% below the IPO price.
  • The company has recently bought back stock providing some support. More importantly, SenseTime Group (20 HK) was included in Southbound Stock Connect on 29 July.
  • We expect a big increase in the free float adjustment factor (FAF) in the Hang Seng Indexes at the September rebalance that will provide some much needed passive inflows.

Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that Meituan (3690 HK)  Ele.me and other food delivery platforms were summoned over food safety problems as well as price war among them.
  • Food delivery platforms are ordered to strictly follow food safety management responsibilities and also prevent price wars that disrupt the market order.
  • Though the anti-trust fine of RMB3.44bn was thought to be the end of an almost year long regulatory crackdown on Meituan, it seems that this is far from over.

China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and Huawei launched beta tests for car-hailing platform almost simultaneously.
  • Alibaba begins to disconnect Ant Group to avoid implicating each other.
  • Missfresh dismissed almost all employees in its headquarters in Beijing.

Minebea Mitsumi Tender for Honda Tsushin Kogyo (6826)

By Travis Lundy

  • Electronics Parts and Devices manufacturer Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has announced a 25% premium Tender Offer to take over connector-maker Honda Tsushin Kogyo (6826 JP)
  • It is not an overwhelming bid, but is supported by Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) which owns an equity affiliate stake, and crossholders and friendly shareholders hold a lot.
  • This looks like it will complete, despite being a little light on price. 

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Int’l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
  • It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.

Route Mobile Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Route Mobile operates as a cloud communication provider to enterprises, OTT players and mobile network operators. The company got listed on the bourse in September 2021.
  • Route is a growing company, and derives a significant chunk of its business internationally.
  • Route Mobile is a story centralized by grey areas, be it accounting or management’s stance on contingent liability, or impairment in investments.

Lasertec (6920) | Mind the Guidance Gap

By Mark Chadwick

  • We turn tactically bearish on Lasertec as we expect the stock to dip on weak order guidance
  • After an exceptionally strong past year, we expect the order outlook to normalise
  • Risks include weaker macro, Intel capex delays and restrictions on equipment sales in China

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Telecom, Xerox Corp, Box Inc Class A, Fortinet Inc, New Relic Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, S&P/ASX, Alibaba, SK Tel, Thai Life Insurance
  • Xerox Holdings Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Box Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Fortinet Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Will Jana Partners Have Success In Pushing New Relic For A Sale?
  • Xerox Holdings Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – New Products Launches

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, S&P/ASX, Alibaba, SK Tel, Thai Life Insurance

By Brian Freitas


Xerox Holdings Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Xerox Holdings Corporation is one of the global leaders in printing, document management systems, and other workplace technologies.
  • With increasing digitization in workplaces, the company is facing a challenging macro-economic landscape and has become a loss making company over the past few quarters.
  • The management also recently announced the launch of a complete range of solutions for the productivity of the workplace.

Box Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on cloud content management platform provider, Box Inc.
  • The company operates on a SaaS model and has achieved accelerating revenue growth, RPO growth, and operating margin since the start of 2022.
  • The strong customer matrices are the main indicators of the success of the platform strategy and product as customers are turning to Box for securing content management.

Fortinet Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on one of the leading players in integrated and automated cybersecurity solutions – Fortinet.
  • The company has been performing well in 2022 so far with a reported increase in billing and product revenue growth.
  • The company has also acquired a controlling stake in a Japan-based networking company ALAXALA Network for around $64 million.

Will Jana Partners Have Success In Pushing New Relic For A Sale?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Activist hedge fund Jana Partners bought ~2.66M New Relic Inc (NEWR US)  shares in 2Q22 and upped its stake in the tech company to 5.3%.
  • According to Reuters, New Relic may explore a potential sale following interest from private equity firms. Mr. Galligan, a partner of Jana Partners, joined the New Relic Board in June. 
  • New Relic shares trade at ~4x EV/Rev on our FY23 revenue estimate, and we think Splunk may set a ceiling on the multiple at which New Relic may be acquired. 

Xerox Holdings Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – New Products Launches

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on legacy workspace technology major, Xerox Holdings Corporation.
  • With increasing digitization in workplaces, the company is facing a challenging macro-economic landscape and has become a loss making company over the past few quarters.
  • Among major acquisitions, Xerox has recently acquired Go Inspire for growing the presence of digital services in the UK.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Advantest Corp, Russell 2000 Index, Softbank Group, Wemade Co., Ltd., DailyHunt, KDDI Corp, MongoDB Inc, Dropbox Inc, Akamai Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)
  • Defining US Risk Inflection
  • Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in August 2022
  • Dailyhunt Tearsheet – News For “Bharat”
  • KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak
  • MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom
  • Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Advantest (6857) – Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

By Travis Lundy

  • Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
  • They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
  • The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.

Defining US Risk Inflection

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
  • Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E’s will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
  • NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.

Softbank Group – BABA Pressure Has Didi Read Across but a 41% NAV Discount Provides Cushion

By Kirk Boodry

  • Alibaba is under pressure again with a direct read-across to Softbank
  • Worries on China regulation are bad news for another Softbank holding DIdi Global as it stands alongside Alibaba as a high-profile regulatory target
  • Alibaba weakness could drive risk pricing (CDS) and the discount  to NAV higher. A silver lining is that discount makes Softbank attractive for investors looking for indirect China exposure

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in August 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 49 stocks in Korea in August 2022, among which 3 are in KOSPI and 46 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 49 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 49 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Wemade, HPSP, Sungeel Hitech, Wemade Max, and Eoflow. These companies could be exposed to greater selling pressures in August. 

Dailyhunt Tearsheet – News For “Bharat”

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • DailyHunt (1449267D IN) is one of India’s leading vernacular content curation and engagement platforms and also one of the most funded content startups. 
  • Channel interactions indicate a challenging competitive position that requires constant cash burn. 
  • In terms of financials, there is no sight of profitability in the near term. Unless that changes, it is best to remain cautious. 

KDDI (Buy) – Q1 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter as Consumer Predictably Weak

By Kirk Boodry

  • Results for the quarter were mixed with a slight miss for profitability despite one-time gains for financial services taken in the quarter
  • Revenue erosion from a reduction in the Rakuten roaming service area was relatively modest whilst there are signs of improvement in erosion from mobile price cuts
  • KDDI will reimburse users ¥7bn (v Redex forecast of ¥10bn) for its network outage earlier this month; the operational impact won’t be clear until Q2 churn is reported

MongoDB Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Model & The Database Industry Boom

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on database major, MongoDB.
  • The company delivered yet another all round beat in the previous result with a staggering 57% growth year over year.
  • The revenue generated by Atlas alone increased by 82% year over year and accounted for 60% of MongoDB’s total revenue.

Dropbox Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The DocSend Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Dropbox, a major player within the cloud storage, file transfer, and e-signature domain.
  • Dropbox is continuing to evolve its core FSS business to drive monetization and improve attention.
  • This quarter, Dropbox has launched its newest version of Dropbox backup that has upgraded management settings and restoration flow.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Akamai Technologies, a renowned content delivery network and cloud service provider. the growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • The consistent double-digit growth in security revenue has been driven by Guardicore’s continued outstanding performance and rapid growth in their application security business.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Akamai Technologies is a well-known cybersecurity company, content delivery network, and cloud service provider.
  • The growth in security and computing has been the main driver of revenues for Akamai in the past years but it has been adversely impacted by the U.S. dollar’s sharp increase in value and the slowing of traffic growth in the company’s delivery business.
  • With pandemic-related restrictions being lifted globally and the related tailwinds receding, the company has seen a slower growth rate of traffic on its network in the gaming and OTT verticals.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Hynix, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Microsoft Corp, Servicenow Inc, KPIT Technologies, Arista Networks, Netgear Inc, Renesas Electronics, Iridium Communications, CloudFlare and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year
  • PSMC Placement – Well Flagged and SI on the Rise, but Momentum Has Been Very Weak
  • Microsoft:  Growth Bulls Versus Value Bears
  • TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow
  • KPIT Tech: Strong Execution; Margins Exceed Expectation
  • Arista Networks Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position
  • NTGR: Catalysts for Growth, Buy
  • Renesas (6723) | Buy the Dip
  • IRDM: Calling Home with Free Cash Flow
  • Cloudflare Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Presence & Scope For Expansion. Other Key Drivers

Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

By Sanghyun Park

  • If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.
  • If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.
  • We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.

PSMC Placement – Well Flagged and SI on the Rise, but Momentum Has Been Very Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (6770 TT) (PSMC) is looking to raise US$420m via its GDS offering.
  • The firm is offering 23.3m GDSs (350m common shares at a 1 GDS to 15 common shares ratio) at a 6-9% discount to last close. 
  • The deal is well flagged via both media reports and the company’s announcements. Short interest has been growing in tandem as well.

Microsoft:  Growth Bulls Versus Value Bears

By Steven Holden

  • Microsoft Corporation is the most widely held stock among active US equity investors. Of the 297 active strategies in our analysis, 80.1% own Microsoft at an average weight of 5.10%
  • There is a growing dispersion between Value and Growth managers in MSFT.  Growth managers are at record levels of ownership, whereas Value managers are running their largest underweight on record.
  • US Growth managers are relying on Microsoft to deliver an increasing proportion of the Growth within their portfolios. The cost of that growth is coming under scrutiny by Value managers

TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow

By Aaron Gabin

  • Spotify’s earnings were not as impressive as they seemed. Revenue beats driven by huge FX tailwinds, while MAU beats are coming from low ARPU regions.
  • ServiceNow’s earnings were not as weak as seemed. Uberbullish CEO Bill McDermott had already guided to elongated sales cycles, but we think reiterated margin targets and 130% NRR matter more. 
  • Inverse results…Spotify jumped without any evidence of progress towards an unbelievable LT operating model, while ServiceNow fell without evidence that its (superb) LT model is in question.

KPIT Tech: Strong Execution; Margins Exceed Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN) [“KPIT Tech”; “KPIT”] reported a robust Q1FY23 earnings with CC revenue growth of 6% QoQ (26% annualized), well above the 18-21% guided for FY23.
  • The biggest positive surprise was on the margins front with EBITDA margins coming in at 19.4%, exceeding the 18-19% band guided for FY23, despite the supply-side headwinds.
  • More importantly, the demand outlook continues to be promising despite macro-economic concerns around US and Europe.

Arista Networks Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Position

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on cloud networking solutions provider, Arista Networks.
  • The company had a strong quarter and generated record quarterly revenues of $877.1 million backed by a strong performance in software support renewals and services.
  • Cloud titans were their strongest and largest vertical for the last quarter, followed by enterprise, cloud specialty providers and financials tied for second place, and service providers in fourth.

NTGR: Catalysts for Growth, Buy

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR is reaching the inflection point of rebalancing its channel inventory after deciding to transition away from lower priced wireless routers
  • Upgrading to Buy Rating from Neutral with inventory rebalancing near the end, strong SMB sales trends momentum, and growth within service provider
  • The higher sales performance from the SMB segment was not expected and should contribute to NTGR growing revenue in 2023 with upcoming release of WiFi 7 on deck

Renesas (6723) | Buy the Dip

By Mark Chadwick

  • Renesas stock is down around 8% following quarterly earnings and a very conservative Q3 outlook
  • We think the market is over reacting and believe that Renesas is a key beneficiary of secular growth in auto and industrial electronics
  • The stock trades at a discount to global peers, despite a strong story for improving shareholder returns

IRDM: Calling Home with Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IRDM continues to benefit from the momentum in consumer adoption of personal communications devices embedded with capabilities to use IRDM’s satellite network
  • The quarterly results were overshadowed by IRDM’s disclosure of entering into a technology sharing relationship for using IRDM’s satellite network as backup connectivity to smartphones
  • During the second quarter 2022, IRDM added approximately 80 thousand new commercial IOT subscribers to bring the total to over 1.3 million

Cloudflare Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Market Presence & Scope For Expansion. Other Key Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Cloudflare, one of the leading cloud-based security solutions providers in the world.
  • Cloudflare has recently equipped partners to deliver a comprehensive Zero Trust solution with the Cloudflare One Partner program.
  • Moreover, the company recently expanded its platform zero trust for becoming the only provider of cloud-native with Network scale.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Canon Inc, Mercari Inc, Rakus Co Ltd, 21Vianet Group, Softbank Corp, FirstCry, SK Telecom, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Digital Turbine, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX July Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today
  • Mercari (4385) | We Were Wrong…its Worse
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 2022 Rebal: Final Pre-Event Phase Strategy Worked. What Next?
  • VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners
  • Softbank Corp (Buy) – PayPay Conversion, Re-Valuation Gain Confirmed for Q3
  • FirstCry Tearsheet – India’s Only “Surviving” Baby Products Retailer
  • SK Telecom: MSCI Deletion Should Provide Entry Point Vs KT Corp
  • Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather
  • Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market

TOPIX July Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today

By Brian Freitas

  • FFW changes and Mercari Inc (4385 JP)‘s inclusion in the TOPIX will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.55% and one-way trade of JPY 443bn (US$3.23bn) at the close today.
  • There is net buying in Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Communication Services stocks, while there will be net selling in Consumer Staples and Health Care stocks.
  • The upweights have outperformed the downweights since announcement of the changes and there has not been a lot of excess volume traded in the last couple of weeks.

Mercari (4385) | We Were Wrong…its Worse

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shopify Inc (SHOP US) ‘s share price declined by -15% in after hours trade on weaker-than-expected US E-commerce trends
  • Mercari Inc (4385 JP) ‘s US business is highly correlated with its US peer, as is its stock price
  • A normalisation of e-commerce trends could also impact its much larger Japanese GMV as consumers shift spending patterns back to normal 

JPX-Nikkei 400 2022 Rebal: Final Pre-Event Phase Strategy Worked. What Next?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In JPX-Nikkei 400 2022 Rebal: Final Predictions, I discussed Quiddity’s final predictions for Potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei Index August 2022 Annual Review.
  • In that insight, I classified the potential ADDs/DELs by conviction levels and discussed why the high conviction ADDs and DELs deserved a higher weight than the other baskets.
  • Since then, the LONG High Conviction ADDs – SHORT High conviction DELs Trade has outperformed the other LONG-SHORT combinations.

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for 21Vianet Group (VNET US). Considerations are at a preliminary stage.
  • A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   
  • Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity.     

Softbank Corp (Buy) – PayPay Conversion, Re-Valuation Gain Confirmed for Q3

By Kirk Boodry

  • Softbank and Z Holdings have confirmed the conversion of PayPay preferred equity into common in-line with previous guidance for ownership levels and a revaluation gain
  • Z Holdings will sell the credit card business to PayPay to align transactional fintech which makes distribution, product development and branding easier
  • Our outlook has not changed but we are lowering our target price to reflect diminished expectations announced at Q4 results. We remain at Buy but prefer NTT/KDDI in telcos

FirstCry Tearsheet – India’s Only “Surviving” Baby Products Retailer

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • FirstCry (0172540D IN) is one of the leading and only surviving Omni channel retailer that specialises in baby products. 
  • Channel feedback is positive, the strategy of opening company-owned and operated stores, and segregating online and offline operations is working well.  
  • Increasing revenues, profitable operations and limited competition make FirstCry a compelling narrative that should be on the watchlist. 

SK Telecom: MSCI Deletion Should Provide Entry Point Vs KT Corp

By Brian Freitas

  • SK Telecom (017670 KS) has continued to underperform KT Corp (030200 KS) even as foreign investors continue buying. Local institutions have been selling the stock.
  • With foreign room currently at 1.68% and consistently below 3.75% recently, SK Telecom (017670 KS) should be deleted from the MSCI Korea Index at the August QIR.
  • There will be more selling from FTSE trackers in September. With the SK Tel/KT Corp price ratio trading at the lows, the passive selling could provide a good entry point.

Alibaba Health: New Digital Healthcare Policy to Have Less Impact but Tumbling Margins Is Worrying

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • On 22nd June, China released a draft rule that would prevent third-party e-commerce platforms from selling drugs directly to consumers online.
  • Alibaba Health’s share price is down more than 10% since the announcement of the draft rule, however, third-party e-commerce platforms accounts for about 10% of Ali Health’s revenues.
  • Pharmaceutical direct sales business has been generating lower GPM compared to JD Health’s direct biz, and the company’s margins have continued to deteriorate during the last 2-years.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Partnerships With Google & AccuWeather

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the mobile growth platform provider, Digital Turbine.
  • Digital Turbine is now in an expansion mode as evident from its recent results as well as its acquisition-oriented strategy.
  • However, in recent quarters, the investors of Digital Turbine have turned against various technology-focused assets, and its stock price also lost much value.

Tencent (700 HK): Game Industry Decreasing for First Time and Turning to Overseas Market

By Ming Lu

  • Online game sales decreased for the first time in 1H22.
  • The main problem is the unstable policy of the new game license.
  • Big companies like Tencent and NetEase are seeking overseas markets.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), PC Partner, CARS24, Plus Digital Technologies, Fidelity National Info Serv, Jabil Circuit, Viavi Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc
  • Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap
  • Cars24 Tearsheet – Leading Used Car Marketplace
  • Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)
  • Viavi Solutions Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks (07/2022)
  • Jabil Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks (07/2022)
  • Viavi Solutions Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The NTT DOCOMO Partnership, New Product Launches & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

Alibaba to Pursue Dual Primary Listing in HK – Impact on Stock Connect, Indices, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning – 26 July – Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX.
  • When Alibaba listed in NY, it was on ADRs. When it listed in HK, it was the shares underlying the ADRs but it was a quickie secondary listing.
  • It will now seek a dual primary listing as others have. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible and will slightly improve BABA’s HSI funding trade prospects in future. 

Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • 1H22 was a story of two halves: 1Q22 still showed record profits but 2Q22 got progressively worse. 3Q22 started weak with inventory clearance and Nvidia new GPU launch awaited.
  • Even after paying a fantastic final dividend in June 2022, it is now trading below net cash on the balance sheet.  
  • We estimate net cash on the balance sheet is now 9 HKD vs 7 HKD share price.

Cars24 Tearsheet – Leading Used Car Marketplace

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Cars24 (1716847D IN) is one of India’s leading used auto (primarily car) marketplace.  The company claims a 90% share in the online used car market. 
  • Channel feedback suggests no customer loyalty and a poor competitive position compared to local unorganised sales yards. 
  • Losses narrowing due to reduction in expenses, declining revenues and recent high profile exits all point to caution. 

Plus Digital Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Plus Digital Technologies (PDT CH) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Jefferies and Guotai Junan.
  • Plus Digital Technologies provides digitalised sales and marketing and SaaS+ services to its customers to enhance their offline sales and marketing efficiency and drive their offline retail sales. 
  • Its provision of services is supported by its Field Management Ecology System (FMES) platform, which contains a variety of digitalised products with different functionalities to meet customers’ various requirements.

Fidelity National Information Services: Initiation of Coverage – Core Processing Business Upside & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on the leading global technology solutions provider to the banking and finance industry – Fidelity National Information.
  • The company’s annual organic growth expectations were all exceeded with a 9% organic top-line growth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Jabil Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Collaborations With SolarEdge, Cardo Systems, & Other Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on diversified manufacturing services and solutions provider, Jabil Inc.
  • The company has maintained a strong diversification strategy which has helped it perform despite a difficult supply chain environment and widely reported shutdowns in China.
  • During the quarter, the company further collaborated with two companies, SolarEdge and Cardo Systems, to expand its supply chain.

Fidelity National Information Services: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks & ESG Assessment (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Fidelity National Information is a technology solutions provider to the worldwide banking and finance industry.
  • The company had a strong start to the year, 2022 far outpacing its projections for revenue and delivering a solid organic top-line growth.
  • During the quarter, they launched their Guaranteed Payments solution, making it the only payment processor to provide a fully integrated solution guaranteed to increase e-commerce transaction approval rates and remove chargebacks resulting from fraudulent purchases.

Viavi Solutions Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Viavi Solutions is a leading provider of network test solutions, monitoring and assurance solutions to the telecom industry, enterprises, network equipment manufacturers, Governments, and avionics corporations.
  • The North American service providers upgraded and expanded their networks with fibre which benefitted the company.
  • Its solutions for assurance and products for data centres have been experiencing significant growth.

Jabil Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report, Key Risks (07/2022)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Jabil Inc is a highly diversified manufacturing services and solutions provider across multiple industries.
  • The company has maintained a strong diversification strategy which has helped it perform despite a difficult supply chain environment and widely reported shutdowns in China.
  • The strong demand within EMS, partially offset by sporadic Covid-19 challenges within DMS, was the primary factor driving their revenues since the start of 2022.

Viavi Solutions Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – The NTT DOCOMO Partnership, New Product Launches & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • This is our first report on Viavi Solutions, a major player within the network test solutions and monitoring space.
  • As North American service providers upgraded and expanded their networks with fibre, fibre grew by double-digit percentages from the same time the previous year.
  • We initiate coverage on Viavi Solutions with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Duolingo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Duolingo: Now, Available In China. Plenty of Positives and Strong Operating Metrics

Duolingo: Now, Available In China. Plenty of Positives and Strong Operating Metrics

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Duolingo (DUOL US)  will announce its 2Q22 quarterly results on August 4, 2022. The leading U.S. EdTech unicorn raised FY22 guidance and reported strong operating metrics in 1Q22.
  • Duolingo app is back in Apple App Store and Android stores in China after the app was removed from some app stores 1 year ago due to Beijing’s EdTech crackdown. 
  • Durable Capital Partners acquired ~$158M worth of Duolingo (DUOL US)  shares this year. General Atlantic and Durable Capital Partners led the most recent Series H private round in November 2020. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited, Total Access Communication and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Jul) – DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, Link Admin, VNET, Alliance Aviation

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!

By Brian Freitas



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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nexon, Micron Technology, Paychex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • What We Should Know About the Nexon Inheritance Tax Dilemmas
  • Micron Technology Inc.: FValue Proposition, EUV Upside, i400 MicroSD Launch & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)
  • Paychex Inc.: Revenue Model, Product Enhancements, Switching Costs & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

What We Should Know About the Nexon Inheritance Tax Dilemmas

By Sanghyun Park

  • A critical issue arose lately. The Nexon heirs do not have collateral for installment payment. The Korea NTS doesn’t accept shares of an unlisted company as collateral for tax payment.
  • So, the contingency plan is a direct equity sale. The more feasible would be for NXC to sell its stake in Nexon for the convenience of valuation and finding buyers.
  • The deal size is so large that it can come out in multiple block deals rather than a single buyer deal by the end of October.

Micron Technology Inc.: FValue Proposition, EUV Upside, i400 MicroSD Launch & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Micron Technology delivered a decent quarter matching Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues but delivered an earnings beat.
  • The company’s performance has been driven by the forte in DRAM shipments to game, console, PC, and cloud customers.
  • Among new launches, Micron recently announced the launch of the i400 microSD card and partnership programs with IQ (Industrial Quotient).

Paychex Inc.: Revenue Model, Product Enhancements, Switching Costs & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (07/22)

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Paychex had a strong quarter with growth driven by strong retention and sales.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat surpassing market expectations and there was an increase in total revenue as well as service revenue.
  • We provide the stock of Paychex Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

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