United States

• On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”
• Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
• U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.

• Shoulder Innovations Inc., a pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, is expected to IPO soon. 
• The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $19.00 to $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$450M at midpoint on a fully-diluted basis.  
• I have a positive view of Shoulder Innovations IPO and see upside vs. IPO price due to the company’s superior growth profile, industry-leading gross margins and capital efficient technology.

• Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
• CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
• Intel’s 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

• Kraft Heinz (KHC) is currently evaluating a plan to spin off a significant portion of its grocery business into a new, distinct entity. The WSJ reported that this transaction is likely to occur.

• The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.

• This new entity, which can be referred to as “SpinCo,” would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products. The remaining company, or “RemainCo,” would strategically focus its operations on faster-growing segments, specifically sauces, spreads, and condiments.

• Intuitive Surgical’s recent quarterly results highlight a strong performance, marked by a 21% increase in revenues and a pro forma earnings per share rise of 23%.
• The company saw robust growth in procedure volumes, with da Vinci procedures increasing by 17%, attributed to strong performance in benign general surgery in the U.S. and a notable rise in international procedures outside urology.
• The introduction of their latest robotic platform, the da Vinci 5, is beginning to show positive traction with broad launches underway in the U.S., and initial adoption in Europe and Japan following regulatory clearances.

• Coca-Cola Company’s second-quarter 2025 results illustrate both achievements and challenges within a dynamic operating environment.
• The company experienced a modest 1% decline in volume, attributed to difficult prior-year comparisons and adverse weather affecting key markets, coupled with some consumer pressure.
• However, Coca-Cola achieved a 5% organic revenue growth and 4% earnings per share growth, even amidst currency headwinds and a higher effective tax rate.

• D.R. Horton, Inc., a significant player in the homebuilding industry, reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025.
• The company navigated prevailing market conditions with a focus on maximizing returns and efficiency.
• Earnings per share stood at $3.36, reflecting a decrease from $4.10 in the previous year.

• CSX Corporation’s recent financial performance showcases a company in recovery, marked by deliberate efforts to address operational challenges and improve service delivery.
• The second-quarter results reflect a mix of successes and ongoing hurdles within their business framework.
• Positively, CSX Corporation has demonstrated a strong recovery from earlier disruptions, with notable improvements in network performance metrics including velocity, dwell time, and trip plan compliance.

• Danaher Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 results provided a comprehensive view of their financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning.
• The quarter was marked by notable achievements and some challenges, set within a complex macroeconomic environment.
• From a financial perspective, Danaher reported sales of $5.9 billion, with core revenue growth of 1.5% year-overyear.

• Domino’s Pizza reported a strong second quarter performance, marked by market share gains and growth in both U.S. and international markets, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• In the U.S., Domino’s saw positive results in its delivery and carryout businesses, driven by strategic innovations and improvements in customer value propositions.
• The launch of the Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza was highlighted as a significant contributor, attracting new customers and performing well operationally due to prior training investments.

• CoStar Group’s second quarter of 2025 showcased a mix of significant achievements and potential challenges.
• The company reported a robust revenue of $781 million, marking a 15% increase from the previous year, and achieved a notable adjusted EBITDA of $85 million, representing a 108% increase year-over-year.
• These figures surpassed consensus estimates, indicating strong operational performance and efficient management.

• General Motors Company presented its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, underscoring both strengths and areas of challenge in its current performance.
• The company’s financial position and strategic maneuvers present a complex picture for potential investors to consider.
• On the positive side, General Motors reported a strong operating performance, with key highlights including substantial revenue figures.

• Halliburton’s second quarter of 2025 presented a mixed financial and operational performance, with notable challenges and some opportunities.
• Despite volatile commodity markets and global economic uncertainties, the company reported a 2% increase in total revenue, reaching $5.5 billion compared to the first quarter of 2025.
• Operating income totaled $727 million, yielding an operating margin of 13%.

• Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
• The company achieved significant operational efficiency, increasing its adjusted EBITDA by $271 million compared to the previous quarter.
• This improvement was driven by higher shipment volumes, enhanced production efficiency, and strategic cost-cutting initiatives.

• Days before the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference is to begin in Shanghai, Amazon’s Shanghai-based AI research institute — once a centerpiece of the event’s inaugural launch — is facing its imminent closure, marking the end of Amazon Web Services Inc.’s last overseas AI lab.

• Wang Minjie, an applied scientist at AWS AI Shanghai Lablet, shared on Chinese social media platform WeChat on Tuesday that the lab will be dissolved due to “strategic adjustments between China and the United States.”

• Amazon did not deny the closure. In a statement to Caixin, the company said, “Following a comprehensive evaluation of our organizational structure, growth priorities and future strategic direction, we have made the difficult decision to streamline certain teams within AWS China. We are committed to supporting affected employees through this transition.”

• Some of the US Stocks we cover have already reported their earnings: Tesla (TSLA US) and Alphabet (GOOG US) .
• Others will report next week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) ,  Meta (META US) , Apple (AAPL US), while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report on August 28th.
• We dive into each stock potential for upside or downside at this junction, based on tactical analysis of our quantitative trend forecast models.

• Exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange serve the crucial function of bringing buyers and sellers together, ensuring transactions are completed smoothly and efficiently.
• Clearinghouses, coordinated by exchanges, play a vital role in finalizing transactions and mitigating risks, acting as a safety net to guarantee trades will settle even if one party defaults.
• CME Group specializes in futures contracts, offering a wide range of products and deep liquidity pools for global benchmark products, making it a leading marketplace for derivatives globally.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. 
• U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.
• Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q225 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 7 August, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 58,500oz to 70,787oz in line with the volume of copper produced in Q2 (as per Vale’s production and sales report). On the basis of the difference between Vale’s Brazilian copper sales and its production (as a proxy for Salobo’s performance) we have also assumed only a small inventory build at Wheaton in Q2 relative to Q1. Including an upward adjustment to prices, these changes have resulted in a 21.7% increase to our Q225 adjusted EPS estimate and a 9.1% increase to our FY25 estimate. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises to US$2.87/share, while its corresponding P/E ratio falls to 33.3x.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q225 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 7 August, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 58,500oz to 70,787oz in line with the volume of copper produced in Q2 (as per Vale’s production and sales report). On the basis of the difference between Vale’s Brazilian copper sales and its production (as a proxy for Salobo’s performance) we have also assumed only a small inventory build at Wheaton in Q2 relative to Q1. Including an upward adjustment to prices, these changes have resulted in a 21.7% increase to our Q225 adjusted EPS estimate and a 9.1% increase to our FY25 estimate. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises to US$2.87/share, while its corresponding P/E ratio falls to 33.3x.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target, and conservatively leaving our 2025 and 2026 EPS projections untouched after JAKKS Pacific registered EPS upside, but a revenue miss, for 2Q25, as the company’s operations were materially impacted by the imposition of China tariffs, which served to disrupt shipments utilizing the Freight On Board (“FOB”) method.
• While a 40% increase in international revenue YoY demonstrated what could have been, domestic sales declines of over 30% in the United States showed the lost potential of the quarter.
• That said, management did a solid job controlling the levers in their control to still register a small profit.

• We believe the expected increased need in North America for critical materials, including anode, is a key factor behind the non-dilutive funding the company has been able to obtain from the DOE, Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program and other sources, as NVX moves forward with the construction of a 2nd Tennessee plant.
• Production capacity of its existing Riverside plant has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements and NVX plans to construct a 2nd facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• NVX has secured additional liquidity, recently entering into a funding agreement for up to US$100m convertible debentures with Yorkville Advisors Global.

• OPTT hosted a FY25 briefing for analysts and investors today. OPTT is a provider of intelligent solutions for gathering information and delivering payloads in marine environments.
• The company’s offerings include several product lines supporting go- to-market strategies, featuring autonomous vehicles and persistent buoys capable of generating their own power.
• These assets are deployed at sea to collect data for a range of customers, with a strong focus on the defense and security sector, as well as offshore energy producers and the research and scientific communities.

• Not impressive earnings result for 2Q25 as revenue fell 12%, led by a weaker EV sales followed by lower sales from the renewable energy division as well.  
• The highest-margin business contributor, regulatory credit, may be gone soon as recently the US government removed the financial penalty for higher emissions. 
• Tesla (TSLA US) is trading at premium compared to its Chinese counterparts such as BYD (1211 HK) , NIO (9866 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) .

• Corpay has made headlines with its definitive agreement to acquire Alpha Group International in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion (£1.6 billion).
• The transaction, offering Alpha shareholders £42.50 per share—a 55% premium over its undisturbed price as of May 1, 2025—is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
• This acquisition comes on the heels of a busy strategic year for Corpay, including a $300 million cross-border partnership with Mastercard and a minority investment in AvidXchange.

• Rumors are swirling around a potential acquisition that could significantly reshape the cybersecurity landscape.
• SentinelOne, a company known for its autonomous endpoint protection platform, saw its shares surge after reports emerged suggesting that industry giant Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) might be in advanced talks to acquire it.
• While neither company has confirmed the speculation, multiple Israeli media outlets have cited industry sources suggesting a potential deal value of around $7 billion.

• McGraw Hill (MH US) priced a full-size offering of 24.4mm shares at $17.00 and saw a flat opening print. 
• This was the second private equity backed deal of the week and second to trade below issue.
• Ultimately, the deal did not have the “strength” and was forced to give-way to the buy-side with a $2 discount below the low-end of the range.

• Datadog, a leader in observability and security, is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Israeli cybersecurity firm Upwind for approximately $1 billion, according to a report by Calcalist.
• The move comes just months after Upwind raised $100 million in a Series A funding round, valuing the startup at roughly $900 million.
• As Datadog continues expanding its product portfolio, especially in cloud-native security and AI observability, the potential acquisition of Upwind signals a strategic push deeper into cloud workload protection and runtime security.

• Deere & Co is no longer just a symbol of tractors and green machines — it has quietly transformed into one of the most dominant forces in agricultural technology.
• At the intersection of artificial intelligence and farming, Deere is building a future where its equipment not only performs fieldwork but also interprets real-time data, automates decision-making, and boosts crop yields through precision.
• The company’s recent developments, including strong second-quarter financials for fiscal 2025 and an impressive Investor Day presentation in Brazil, reveal a clear trajectory: Deere is shifting from traditional machinery to becoming a full-scale agri-tech platform.

• Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.
• Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.
• However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.

• Shoulder Innovations will be offering 5.0mm shares at $19-$21 and to debut on July 31st.
• The underwriters have reserved up to 6% of the shares of common stock offered through a directed share program. 
• The sector had a surprise underperformance from CarlsMed this week and will be looking to rebound with this upcoming IPO. 

• Accelerant Holdings (ARX US)  priced 34.46mm shares (upsized from 28.95mm) at $21.00($1 Above the $18-$20 range) and opened at $28.50 for a gain of 35.7% at first trade.
• This was the fifth insurance related IPO to debut in 2025 and all have been winners.
• We see this company having potential staying power in the short term. Several insurance related IPOs have traded higher for longer than many short term investors would have anticipated.

• 2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. 
• Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. 
• New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.

• Playboy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLBY) is undergoing a transformation to an asset-light business model centered around its iconic brand, positioning the company for sustainable profitability
• The strategy is starting to yield tangible improvements in profitability, as evidenced by its return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
• Playboy’s current valuation (2.7x EV/2025 sales) does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential. As licensing continues to scale and margins expand, the company is poised for a meaningful re-rating.

• General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
• The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
• In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

• The is an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services.
• Reflecting their strong market presence, the Bullish Exchange’s total trading volume since launch has exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2025.
• The digital assets space, especially crypto-exchanges, is one that has the strong tailwind from legislation passed by lawmakers which is anticipated to increase adoption from a more institutional investor base.

• Venture Global, Inc.’s IPO was one of the largest capital raises of the year, pulling in $1.75 billion through the sale of 70 million shares at $25.00 per share.
• In the months following the IPO, the performance worsened. By April, Venture Global shares had plunged to a low of $6.75, marking a staggering 73% decline from its IPO price.
• Regaining credibility will require not only strong quarterly results but also a sustained effort to rebuild institutional confidence.

• Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
• Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
• The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

• 3M Company’s recent earnings presentation highlighted a mixed performance across different metrics, reflecting both strides in operational efficiency and challenges from macroeconomic factors.
• With an adjusted earnings per share of $2.16, up 12% year-over-year and surpassing expectations, 3M reported a solid quarter.
• Organic sales growth of 1.5% showed a third consecutive quarter of growth across all business groups, demonstrating some resilience despite external challenges.

• Chevron has officially closed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation following a decisive arbitration victory over ExxonMobil, marking one of the most consequential moves in the global oil and gas sector this decade.
• The long-disputed deal had been mired in uncertainty due to Exxon’s contractual claims over Hess’s stake in the Guyana oil fields—a globally significant resource discovery with multi-decade production potential.
• However, a panel of international arbitrators sided with Chevron and Hess, clearing the way for the transaction to proceed.

• Marsh & McLennan Companies reported a solid second quarter with a 12% increase in revenue, a 14% rise in adjusted operating income, and an 11% growth in adjusted EPS, aligning well with their expectations, despite challenging macroeconomic conditions.
• Underlying revenue increased by 4%, with contributions from various business segments including Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman.
• The company continues to navigate a complex operating environment affected by geopolitical instability, trade wars, extreme weather, and emerging AI opportunities.

• Fastenal Company’s Q2 2025 results demonstrated a notable blend of achievements and challenges.
• The quarter marked a milestone with sales exceeding $2 billion for the first time, reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year increase.
• This growth, the strongest since early 2023, primarily stemmed from strategic market share gains, effective execution of the company’s strategic plan, and incremental pricing actions aimed at countering supply chain cost pressures.

• Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) priced a full-size deal of 6.7mm shares at $15.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $15.00.
• There were concerns with the color coming from the book as the underwriters failed to provide price guidance to investors the day of pricing on the deal.
• Given that the deal “broke” on day one, we believe investors “may” be turned off by the company in the short term.

• Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
• Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
• Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

• WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
• The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

• The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
• These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
• The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

• McGraw Hill (MH US) , a leading name in educational publishing, is offering 24.39 mn shares to raise up to USD537 mn targeting an equity valuation of USD4.2 billion.
• McGraw Hill is a global provider of educational content and digital learning solutions, serving the K-12, higher education, and professional learning markets. Digital segment accounted for 65% of its revenues.
• McGraw Hill’s transition from print to predominantly digital positions the company to benefit from several structural shifts in the education sector.

• Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
• Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
• Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

• Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
• Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
• Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

• For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
• For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

• Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
• Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
• Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays elevated even as it edges lower.
• Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of heavy-grade base oils.
• Firm margins and high output could trigger rise in surplus supplies.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $65 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• Even though we are in the dog days of Summer, Build-A-Bear has seen no slowdown in innovation, launching their first round of licensed Mini Beans (Hello Kitty and Friends), leveraging the recent Superman movie release, beginning to roll out new fixtures for Mini Beans, expanding their relationship with cheer-leading leader Varsity Sports and launching new Giant licensed characters (Bluey).
• With Halloween on track for release next month, we believe there has been no slowdown in momentum for the company, and we remain confident in Build-A-Bear’s potential to drive further top and bottom line upside; as such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $65 price target for BBW.

• In the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence, Meta has doubled down on voice-driven innovation by snapping up PlayAI, a nimble startup renowned for its natural-sounding speech synthesis and user-friendly voice-creation platform.
• With more than 3.4 billion daily users across its apps and nearly one billion monthly users of its Meta AI service, the company is eager to integrate PlayAI’s specialized talent directly into Meta Superintelligence Labs.
• This move arrives just after Meta rolled out Llama 4 models and launched its stand-alone Meta AI app, signaling an all-in push toward multimodal, conversational AI.

• Figma is offering 36.9mm shares at $25.00-$28.00 equating to a market cap of $12.2bn-$13.65b and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
• They estimate their total revenue to increase by 39% to 41% for the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.
• This company is highly regarded in the software sector and we believe that there will be ample interest in this IPO.

• Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.
• The company is currently undergoing a “shift” from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.
• The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.

• Figma (FIG US) targets a valuation of $13.7bn, aiming to raise $1.2bn given it reaches the top of its pricing range.
• Inclusion in US and Global indices is delayed until 2026 due to failing free float and public voting rights eligibility before lock-up expiries.
• Figma (FIG US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.

• Concerns for sugar cane yields and sugar content in major sugar market exporter
• China’s soybean import demand reached record seasonal high, following Brazilian crop
• Short covering seen in grain complex, USDA trimmed US corn availability expectations, driving force behind corn price recovery; tariff impacts on Brazilian products into US market, potential changes in sweetener mix for Coca Cola

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• McGraw Hill (MH US) , is  offering 24.39mm shares at $19.00-$22.00 equating to a market cap of $3.6b-$4.2b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
• We were pleasantly “surprised” to hear that the deal’s channel checks came in strong. According to guidance, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued long-only conversions.
• Bringing the IPO at a valuation that is a down-round is a “positive”, however the sector in which this company operates in “may” prove to be a difficult sell.

• According to our sources, the deal is double-digits oversubscribed with “meaningful mutual fund conversions”.
• Exchange written premiums were $3.1b in 2024 and the company is projecting premiums of $2.0b-$2.1b in the 1H 2025 alone.
• From a valuation standpoint, the company is targeting a near 20x multiple of EV-to-Ebitda and mid-teens multiple based on 2026 Ebitda which is considered aggressive.

• Norfolk Southern Corp. has emerged as a potential acquisition target for Union Pacific Corp., with early-stage discussions underway that could reshape the North American rail landscape.
• If the deal materializes, it would combine the largest and fifth-largest railroads by revenue, creating a network valued at nearly $200 billion and extending from coast to coast — an unprecedented footprint in U.S. rail history.
• Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena has publicly discussed the strategic merits of a transcontinental railroad, and Norfolk Southern CFO Jason Zampi has echoed support for such a structure, citing potential benefits.

• Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.
• The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.
• I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.

• The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers is to debut on Wednesday, July 23rd.
• According to guidance, that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only, 1-on-1 conversions including anchor indications.
• The company showed solid growth in 2024 of nearly 19% and followed that up with solid flash numbers of +7.5% growth in Q2.

• In our previous insight, Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton, we highlighted upside risk to the LME price.
• Comex-LME spreads remain elevated at $ 2,500/ton levels, reflecting the impact of tariffs that haven’t yet been imposed, amid ongoing supply disruptions. Inventories, though, have stopped depleting on the LME. 
• We remain bullish on copper in the countdown to August 1st, where it is likely that tariffs of 50% are imposed on copper. 

• Shoulder Innovations Inc., high-growth and pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, filed for an IPO in the United States.
• Their flagship product, InSet Glenoid, is the first and only FDA cleared device that solves glenoid loosening. The company has raised ~$115M in equity according to the S-1.
• I believe there is good near-term visibility for growth as Shoulder Innovations drives commercial expansion and achieves greater domestic reach.

• TSLA is set to report Q2 earnings after the close on Wednesday, July 23, following a 28% rally since its last report.
• We examine implied vol and the projected earnings-day move, which may be underpricing event risk.
• Volatility positioning and historical earnings reactions are assessed to help frame expectations.

• Bit Digital’s division of high performance computing (HPCs) is going public with B. Riley and Needham leading the IPO. 
• They had revenue of $8.17 million and $16.77 million and net income of $826.5 thousand and $1.43 million in the first quarter or 2024 and 2025, respectively.
• A comp to this IPO, CoreWeave (CRWV US), saw its company highly scrutinized in the pre-IPO process only to see the stock outperform once going public.

• I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: DD Group (3073 JP)‘s MBO and the Hanil Cement Co Ltd/New (300720 KS)/Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS) merger.
• Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and ZEEKR (ZK US).

• Samsonite (1910 HK), the world’s leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. 
• The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech. 
• Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.

• GOOGL is set to release Q2 earnings on Wednesday, July 23 after the close, having rallied 15.39% since Q1 results.
• Q2 has historically delivered strong average returns and the largest average absolute 1-day move.
• We explore how volatility and past earnings reactions frame expectations for the upcoming release.

• Singapore has emerged as one of the earliest jurisdictions to establish a comprehensive regulatory regime for fiat-referenced stablecoins.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has adopted the Single-Currency Stablecoin (SCS) Framework.
• The adoption is mainly in institutional trials and crypto-native payment flows, but the potential is immense.

• James Hardie Industries Plc demonstrated a mixed performance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, underpinned by its strategic growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions.
• Despite facing a softer demand environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company managed to achieve its financial targets, indicative of its strategic agility and operational discipline.
• On the positive side, James Hardie’s focus on strategic investments and scaling the organization has borne fruit.

• Agilent is a leading provider of instruments, services, and consumables for labs in the life sciences, diagnostics, applied chemical markets, and R&D sectors
• With a market cap of $30 billion, Agilent was born within Hewlett Packard and spun off more than 25 years ago
• Agilent has a total addressable market of $160 billion and has a history dating back to 1938, starting as a testing instrument for audio equipment used by Disney in the production of Fantasia

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• IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
• The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
• For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.

• Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.
• SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.
• WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.

• They are a commercial stage medical technology company that currently offers advanced implant systems for shoulder arthroplasty.
• They generated net revenue of $31.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to net revenue of $19.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2023 (64% growth).
• This IPO could set terms as early as next week for a late July or early August debut. 

• • The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d.
• Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11.
• Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well.