In today’s briefing:
- Zhongji Innolight (3308 HK): (Fast) Global Index Inclusions Post H-Share Listing
- StubWorld: Prosus Is A Buy Here
- Innolight H Share Listing (3308 HK): Valuation Insights
- Zhongji Innolight (中际旭创) A+H IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms
- Alibaba’s 2.4-Trillion-Parameter AI Bet Just Put Silicon Valley On Notice!
- Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (22 Jul 2026)
- TikTok alerts: Indonesia’s suspension of TikTok Shop unveils a diverse regional risk landscape
- Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Assessing the Valuation
- Prosus NV (PRX NA): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (22 Jul 2026)
- Will Temu find success in Southeast Asia? A preliminary pricing study from Thailand
Zhongji Innolight (3308 HK): (Fast) Global Index Inclusions Post H-Share Listing
- Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH) could raise up to US$8.1bn in its H-share listing if the Overallotment Option is exercised. The H-shares are offered at a 23.3% discount to the A-shares.
- There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors with a 6-month lockup. Fast Entry to global indices is still high probability, though early exercise of overallotment will help.
- The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 27 August following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
StubWorld: Prosus Is A Buy Here
- Prosus NV (PRX NA) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus Tencent (700 HK). And Naspers (NPN SJ) “rich” to Prosus.
- Preceding my comments on Prosus/Tencent/Naspers are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Innolight H Share Listing (3308 HK): Valuation Insights
- Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK), a leading global provider of optical interconnect solutions, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$7.0 billion.
- I discussed the H Share listing in Innolight H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- The proposed AH discount of 23.3% (based on the close on 21 July A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.
Zhongji Innolight (中际旭创) A+H IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms
- Zhongji Innolight, a global supplier of optical transceivers, launched its IPO to raise USD 7,021m through an A+H listing. GS, CICC, MS, and GF are the deal sponsors.
- In this note, we look at the deal terms and provide our thoughts on valuation for the company.
- We analyze reference A+H transactions, cornerstone and sponsor performance and assess the risk-reward of the deal.
Alibaba’s 2.4-Trillion-Parameter AI Bet Just Put Silicon Valley On Notice!
- Alibaba Group has pushed itself deeper into the global artificial intelligence race with the preview of Qwen3.8-Max-Preview.
- The company says the new model is among the most capable systems available and ranks behind only Anthropic’s Fable 5.
- That comparison comes from Alibaba, so independent testing will still matter.
Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (22 Jul 2026)
- Offshore Capital Imperative: The Hong Kong listing (H-share) target of up to USD 7.02 billion (up to USD 8.1 billion with over-allotment) is driven by the structural reality of Chinese capital controls. Onshore RMB cannot be easily deployed for the rapid global capacity expansion (primarily Thailand) required to service US hyperscalers, who accounted for 61.7% of Q1 2026 revenue and demand non-mainland supply chains.
- Structural A-to-H Discount: The 23.3% discount on the H-share price (indicative cap of HK$1,010) compared to the Shenzhen A-share price is a necessary pricing concession to clear the largest Hong Kong listing in seven years. Long-term convergence will be structurally limited because H-shares and A-shares are not directly fungible, preserving a persistent premium on the retail-dominated, liquidity-rich onshore market.
- Index Inclusion & Free Float Hurdles: The massive USD 3.45 billion cornerstone allocation (~49.1% of the base offering) creates a major technical hurdle for immediate “Fast Entry” global index inclusions due to the 6-month lock-up reducing the immediate tradeable free float. However, Southbound Stock Connect inclusion remains highly viable within 30 days post-stabilization.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
TikTok alerts: Indonesia’s suspension of TikTok Shop unveils a diverse regional risk landscape
- It has now been a few weeks since TikTok Shop stopped operating in Indonesia.
- As the immediate dust raised by the action has settled, all the key stakeholders – sellers, brands, investors, enablers, influencers, and of course the teams at TikTok – are back at their drawing boards planning their next moves in Indonesia.
- Outside of Indonesia meanwhile, many have asked the question –will other countries follow suit?
Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Assessing the Valuation
- The IPO of Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK), a leading global provider of optical interconnect solutions, which seeks HK$54.5bn, is the largest since 2019.
- Its FY25-28F EPS CAGR will reach 89.8%, underpinned by the jump in revenue and expansion in margin. Its 1Q26 net profit has already surged by 262.3%.
- The IPO is priced at a 17.7% HA discount. At a HK$1.2trn market capitalisation, pegging it to its A-share will give a price of HK$1,227, or a 21.5% upside.
Prosus NV (PRX NA): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (22 Jul 2026)
- Successful Elimination of Cross-Holding Complexity: The September 2023 unwind removed the restrictive cross-holding structure, resolving South African Companies Act limitations and enabling the open-ended share buyback to run continuously at both the Naspers and Prosus levels.
- Robust Buyback Accretion and Funding Runway: As of September 30, 2025, the open-ended repurchase program returned $42 billion, repurchasing 30% of Prosus’s free float and generating 18% NAV per share accretion. Supported by the July 16, 2026 irrevocable undertaking to tender Prosus’s 16.8% Delivery Hero stake to Uber for approximately $2.5 billion in cash, the group’s funding runway has meaningfully diversified beyond its primary reliance on selling Tencent shares.
- Friction Points Restricting a Full Structural Unwind: A complete corporate merger or elimination of the dual-listing structure remains blocked by prohibitive capital gains tax liabilities in South Africa, stringent exchange controls, and Dutch dividend withholding tax implications on cross-border capital distributions.
- Incentive Alignment Tension: While the buyback remains highly accretive, executive incentives under CEO Fabricio Bloisi are heavily weighted toward operational profitability and active ecosystem expansion (as evidenced by the $1.3 billion in Ecosystem adjusted EBITDA in FY26), creating an internal tension between executing passive arbitrage buybacks and building a large-scale operating technology group.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Will Temu find success in Southeast Asia? A preliminary pricing study from Thailand
- Temu, the cross-border e-commerce platform of Chinese PDD Holdings (owner of Pinduoduo), has caused a great stir in Southeast Asia’s e-commerce landscape after its launch in Thailand in mid July.
- The platform has achieved remarkable success in Western markets, especially in the US, where it became themost downloaded app, surpassing Amazon, and has reached 70 markets worldwide within just 24 months.
- By directly connecting manufacturers and wholesalers – mainly in China – to customers around the world, Temu offers a unique value proposition of low prices through its cross-border model, as highlighted by its tagline “shop like a billionaire”.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
