In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
- Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
- StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)
- China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test
- Merger Breaks, Stake Increases, and Strategic Sales: Key Developments in SSI’s Weekly Update
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance.
- Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
- SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.
- Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.
- Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.
Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
- Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer.
- Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If <13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
- Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
- FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again.
- Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.
StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)
- Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)‘s simple ratio (INDF/Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high.
- Preceding my comments on the Indofood and First Pacific Co (142 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test
- China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 interim results on Thursday, 7 August 2025. The stock is a key constituent of the HSI and HSCEI.
- Highlights: Past earnings moves have been modest, but the options skew hints at potential for surprises. Dividend decision also due.
- Why Read: Helps time exposure and evaluate short-term risks ahead of results and dividend announcement for cash investors and option traders.
Merger Breaks, Stake Increases, and Strategic Sales: Key Developments in SSI’s Weekly Update
- ProAssurance merger with The Doctors Company faces potential regulatory hurdles, particularly in California, risking a 30-40% stock drop.
- Lifeway Foods and Danone have resumed buyout talks, with confidentiality agreements in place, aiming for a resolution.
- Webjet Group sees increased stake from Helloworld Travel, indicating potential takeover interest following a rejected offer.
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