In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
- Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
- Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA
- SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price
- EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 25-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24
A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
- The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
- Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market. 7 recommendations this week.
Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
- In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
- The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
- We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
- Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).
SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price
- After Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) was suspended on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that’s what unfolded.
- Li Zhenfu (SciClone’s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM) and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.
- The long stop date is the 31 October. That’s too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July.
EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 25-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24
- On-The-Run Quarterly Options now capture India General Elections. Position buildup can be seen in the 21,000 put and 24,000 call strikes
- Weekly and Monthly contract risk premia being squeezed lower due to holiday shortened trading but Quarterly contracts exhibit vol richness
- Scale back short gamma exposure as reward-risk unappealing at current IV levels
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
