In today’s briefing:
- Rakuten (4755 JP) – A Tricky Offering But Lots of Non-Fundamental Long Demand
- StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings Coming Up “Cheap”
- Stuck With Each Other: Toyo “Special Committee” Against Toyo Tender, Toyo Against YFO Proposals
- Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 23: Final Expectations
- Rakuten Bank & SBI Sumishin Net Bank: Upcoming Passive Flow
- Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow
Rakuten (4755 JP) – A Tricky Offering But Lots of Non-Fundamental Long Demand
- The Rakuten (4755 JP) offering is producing interesting analysis. My read on the telecom side is that things are better (or less bad) than they were.
- Longer-Term, I see the idea. Shorter-term, there will still be questions until there are not. However, there could be a lot of non-fundamental “I want this” demand in the offering.
- Questions to ask yourself are: 1) how much will get placed with investors who want it 20+% lower than 15 May highs? 2) how many shorts will cover?
StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings Coming Up “Cheap”
- At 0.3x, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is top of the heap in terms of dollar “UpValue” to move to PBR 1.0x under Japan’s governance changes.
- Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Stuck With Each Other: Toyo “Special Committee” Against Toyo Tender, Toyo Against YFO Proposals
- Today, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) announced it was against YFO’s AGM shareholder proposals. And that the Special Committee was unanimously against YFO’s tender proposal.
- The content is mixed. Some is probably correct (YFO hasn’t done a great job it appears). Some is clearly taking management’s statements at face value where it shouldn’t.
- And some is just the passage of time. Last year, ¥1,000 was “too high.” This year it is “not enough.” Now Toyo and YFO are stuck with each other.
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 23: Final Expectations
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand’s SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
- There are only few more days left for the base date and we believe there could be two ADDs/DELs for the SET 50 index.
- The LONG Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) – SHORT Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB) trade had a good spell of performance but now it might be time to rethink.
Rakuten Bank & SBI Sumishin Net Bank: Upcoming Passive Flow
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) and Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) listed over the last couple of months and the stocks will be added to various indices over the year.
- First up, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 30 May.
- Then both stocks will be added to other global indices between August and December bringing in passive flows and helping support the stock.
Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow
- The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
- Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names.
- In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.
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