Daily Brief Financials: T&D Holdings, Bombay Stock Exchange, Guotai Junan International, Thunes, Kalyani Investment, EFCI Ltd, Jackstones Inc, Icra Ltd, Avalon GloboCare and more

• There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
• Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
• The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.

• There could be 1 constituent change for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and 5 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
• The review period for the September rebalance ended 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place later today and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
• The adds outperformed the deletes in April and May but there has been a narrowing of the spread since then. The spread could widen following the announcement of the changes.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Guotai Junan International (1788 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU), European Lithium (EUR AU), Z Fin (1168 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Accent Group (AX1 AU), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Future Corporation (4722 JP), Japan Property Management Center (3276 JP), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU). 

• Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) proposed to privatise Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. 
• The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector’s average PER of 10.3x.
• It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.

Executive Summary

• Thesis update: Core growth and network moats accelerating. The company is executing on its structural profitability and network expansion theses, deploying its US$153.1m Series D capital to operationalise a New York City hub and expanding its global network reach to 12.0 billion endpoints across over 140 countries. While the integration of stablecoin payouts via Swift for 11,500 financial institutions accelerates its digital asset strategy, monetising these new corridors against entrenched legacy competitors remains a critical execution requirement.
• Corporate and industry developments: US expansion and Swift stablecoin integration drive B2B market capture. Against a backdrop of tightening global regulatory frameworks, Thunes advanced its capture of the US$47.8t business-to-business payments market by launching real-time inbound United States payment capabilities and integrating stablecoin routing for Swift-connected banks. These infrastructural milestones directly expand the addressable market, though they concurrently expose the firm to heightened compliance costs and intense competition from domestic payment orchestrators.
• pvtIQ SmartScore© update:The pvtIQ SmartScore© held steady, as an isolated gain in Growth, following the New York expansion and Top FinTech recognition. It was offset within a broader base of unchanged fundamentals across all other sub-components; the pvtIQ Alt-Data Score© softened, weighed down by declines in Customer Sentiment and Human Capital that outpaced a modest gain in Authority, pointing to growing strain between external visibility and internal/customer-facing performance.

• Kalyani Investment Company Limited (KICL) is a core investment company of the Kalyani Group, primarily holding strategic long-term investments in group entities across diversified sectors like forging, steel, power generation, chemicals, and banking.
• The company’s revenue is predominantly derived from dividend income and interest on fixed deposits, making its financial performance directly linked to the performance and dividend policies of its key investee companies, most notably Bharat Forge Limited.
• Trading at a significant discount to the value of its underlying assets is a persistent characteristic of KICL, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors, though the discount has remained static for extended periods.

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• EFCI Ltd. is on a hyper-growth trajectory, capitalizing on the booming demand for flexible and managed office spaces in India, driven by the country’s strong economic growth and the expansion of its startup and IT sectors.
• The company’s integrated business model, which includes leasing, design and build services, and furniture manufacturing, provides a key competitive advantage, allowing for end-to-end client solutions and potentially higher margins.
• While financial performance shows explosive top-line and bottom-line growth, investors should be mindful of the historically negative free cash flow, high competition within the sector, and the inherent cyclicality of the commercial real estate market.

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• Transition to a Holding Company Model: Jackstones Inc. has pivoted from its origins in technology and other sectors to a holding company structure, with its current primary operational asset being a real estate development subsidiary in the Philippines. The company’s stated ambition is to expand its portfolio across various industries within the ASEAN region, though this strategy is still in its nascent stages.
• Extreme Financial Volatility: The company’s financial performance is characterized by significant volatility in revenue, profitability, and cash flow on both an annual and quarterly basis. This inconsistency makes future earnings highly unpredictable and represents a primary risk for investors.
• Stretched Valuation Amid Weak Fundamentals: Despite a negative long-term trend in market capitalization and a lack of dividend payments, the company exhibits strong price momentum. However, its valuation appears expensive relative to its erratic financial performance and concentrated exposure to the competitive Philippine real estate market.

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• ICRA holds a strong position in the Indian credit rating market, an industry characterized by high entry barriers and an oligopolistic structure. The company’s majority ownership by Moody’s provides significant technical and brand advantages.
• The company has demonstrated a robust financial track record, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.77% and a net income CAGR of 17.32%. This growth is supported by the increasing depth of India’s corporate debt market.
• Future growth is expected to be driven by the expansion of its core ratings business, supplemented by a strategic focus on higher-growth ancillary services like risk management, ESG ratings, and data analytics, including recent acquisitions to bolster these capabilities.

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• Change Agents Corporation is a technology-focused company developing innovative Agentic AI software and consumer health products, expanding into drone interception and surveillance AI enhanced technology solutions.
• The company is developing innovative Agentic AI software, consumer health products, Catch-Up video platform, Beacon GEO search product, and distributes the FDA-registered Keto Air device.
• The company had an accumulated deficit of approximately $110.4 million as of March 31, 2026, and $200,000 cash as of July 31, 2026, raising going concern doubt.

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