In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Incoming – Big Re-IPO Now Smaller, Better
- Dida (2559 HK): Tongcheng (780 HK)’s VGO and Special Dividend
- Aequitas: Archion Possible Placement – Large, ~US$1.6bn, but Well Flagged Secondary
- Unitree Robotics (宇树科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis
- Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains
[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Incoming – Big Re-IPO Now Smaller, Better
- Friday after the close the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler plan on offering ¥200-300bn of shares in Archion (543A JP) within the month, perhaps next week.
- This has been VERY well-flagged. OR should have been. I wrote about it in June 2025, then Jan 2026, then March 2026, then a few days later in April.
- They say 30% of shares out or ~900mm shares which would be the full offering, but the ownership drop looks like 35.2% in their diagram. It is a BIG offering.
Dida (2559 HK): Tongcheng (780 HK)’s VGO and Special Dividend
- On 29 June, Dida (2559 HK) announced two transactions: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)‘s voluntary conditional offer at HK$1.3875 per share and a special dividend of HK$1.1745 per share.
- The total consideration of HK$2.5620 is a 108.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The key condition is a minimum acceptance of 50%, which will be satisfied by the irrevocables.
- This is a low-risk deal as the offer does not require PRC regulatory approvals. Despite being below the 52-week high, the total offer is attractive.
Aequitas: Archion Possible Placement – Large, ~US$1.6bn, but Well Flagged Secondary
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR) could look to raise JPY200-300bn (US$1.3-1.9bn) via a secondary in Archion (543A JP), as per media reports.
- Post the news break on Friday, the company clarified that it is exploring various options, including a secondary.
- In this note, we will talk about the possible deal dynamics.
Unitree Robotics (宇树科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis
- Unitree Robotics (UNITREE CH) intends to raise Rmb4.2bn in the A-share STAR market. Given its leadership in humanoid robots, we expect good interests.
- The key investment thesis includes its global market leadership with proven scale, vertical integration, which creates a moat, and massive AI investment to build the “brain”.
- We initially estimate its FY26F PER and P/S at 74.5x and 19.3x. The higher-than-peer P/S is justified by its better profit margin.
Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains
- 690p appears to have bridged the valuation gap. The Board is now minded to recommend a firm offer, leaving execution and regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdles.
- Our previous thesis has largely played out. We argued valuation, rather than ownership, would determine the outcome and increased our target price to 675p with a probability-weighted value of 677p/share.
- We raise our TP to 690p/share. The shares should move materially higher on Monday, although we expect a merger-arbitrage spread to persist until a firm Rule 2.7 offer is announced.
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