Daily Brief Japan: Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Softbank Group, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, VisasQ, NS Group, SBI Shinsei Bank, Ryohin Keikaku, Onward Holdings and more

• The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
• As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
• That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.

• While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. 
• Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade – a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
• Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade involving a basket of Korean consumer stocks (long) and  a basket of Japanese consumer stocks (short) over the next 3-6 months.
• The 10 Korean names (long basket) include Samyang Food, APR, Amorepacific Corp, Korean Air, CJ Corp, Classys, Nongshim, Shinsegae, Hotel Shilla, and Lotte Tour Development. 
• The 10 Japanese names (short basket) include Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Kao Corp, Seibu Holdings, ANA Holdings, Shiseido, J.Front Retailing, Kose Corp, Pola Orbis Holdings, and Kyoritsu Maintenance. 

• Softbank Group (9984 JP) crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes. 
• Softbank Group has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.
• Softbank Group‘s entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders.

• Share buybacks peak every year in June when AGMs are held, after which the “Quiet Period” begins. Toward the fiscal year-end, buybacks are expected as a means to resolve cross-shareholdings.
• Given that the capital profitability of all TSE-listed companies hasn’t shown improvement, investors must continue to call for reducing excess cash reserves through dissolution of cross-shareholdings and the share buybacks.
• Shareholders entrust management with the responsibility to maximize shareholder interest, which includes shareholder returns and corporate value growth. It’s natural for shareholders to demand that management fulfill this fiduciary duty.

• VisasQ is a dominant player in Japan’s expert network service (ENS) market, poised for global expansion following its strategic acquisition of US-based Coleman Research Group.
• The company exhibits a strong revenue growth trajectory, driven by the increasing demand for specialized knowledge in corporate strategy and investment decisions. However, profitability has been volatile, highlighted by a significant goodwill impairment charge in FY2024 related to the Coleman acquisition.
• Future growth hinges on successfully integrating Coleman, leveraging AI to enhance its service platform, and capitalizing on the expanding global ENS market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 16%.

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• NS Group (471A JP) is a Japanese property rent guarantee company. It is seeking to raise up to US$255 million. Pricing is on 1 December and listing is on 16 December.   
• The controlling shareholder is Bain Capital, which owns 51.0% of voting rights. The offering is a pure secondary sale by Bain.   
• The investment case rests on its unique market positioning, accelerating growth, sector-leading profitability, cash generation, and low leverage. 

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
• SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
• We have looked at past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison

• Ryohin Keikaku has once again exceeded expectations, posting record sales and profits that suggest its near-term ¥1 trillion target will easily be reached. 
• While worries over ubiquity remain, the trusting relationship between customer and brand has allowed rapid and successful category expansion which should deliver those targets.
• This includes overseas markets where Muji is now gaining momentum again in China and, at last, making the most of its brand in Europe.

• Onward has quietly but radically transformed its business from wholesale to omnichannel retail.
• Even more remarkably for a company whose average customer age was until very recently over 50, its latest brands now appeal to teens and 20s.
• The new brands exemplify how much this previously staid wholesaler has changed.