In today’s briefing:
- Active GEM Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline
- Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?
- CX Daily: TikTok Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No.1 in Vietnam
- Oil: When The Facts Change…
- CX Daily: China’s Balancing Act to Keep Its Social Security System Afloat
- Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.0%) in Apr-24
- Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta
- Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24
- Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24
Active GEM Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our active Global EM fund universe.
- We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
- HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.
US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline
- The ‘trade recession’ of 2023 is over, and the OECD CLI suggests global trade should grow 4.5% this year, after just 0.4% growth in 2023 (akin to global trade recession).
- Despite a hot job market (unemployment rate below NAIRU for 3 years), record illegal and legal immigration (and their higher working-age proportion) are keeping US wage growth relatively in check.
- MoM gains in core PCE were lower than core CPI in Feb’24, and likely will be in Mar’24 also, allowing a glide to lower core-PCE inflation and Jul’24 rate cut.
Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?
- China’s battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.
- However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China’s status as an attractive investment destination.
- To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.
CX Daily: TikTok Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No.1 in Vietnam
- TikTok /: TikTok faces regulatory hurdles in bid to become No.
- Holiday /: Japan expects flood of Chinese tourists over Labor Day holiday
- Leverage /: China’s macro leverage ratio rises to 294.8% despite slower borrowing
Oil: When The Facts Change…
- Changing circumstances in the Middle East are causing uncertainty in oil price forecasts.
- Market analysts have a wide range of predictions due to these uncertain factors.
- The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel are increasing risks, potentially leading to higher oil prices.
CX Daily: China’s Balancing Act to Keep Its Social Security System Afloat
- Social security / Cover Story: China’s balancing act to keep its social security system afloat
- China-U.S. /: U.S. Secretary of State to make second China trip in less than a year
- Flood /: Authorities warn deadly South China floods may get worse
Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.0%) in Apr-24
- Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the BI-Rate by 25bps to 6.25%, defying the consensus forecast as it aims to stabilize the Rupiah and curb inflation amid global financial uncertainties.
- The rate hike is a strategic response to external pressures and inflation risks, ensuring that inflation remains within the 2.5 ± 1% target range through preemptive monetary tightening.
- Despite the rate increase, Bank Indonesia maintains a pro-growth approach through supportive macroprudential policies and enhancements to the payment system, promoting economic expansion and financial system stability.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta
- HSI has now closed above its 3 year downtrend and is poised to advance to its next resistance level
- International brokers finally turning more bullish on the market as the US, Europe and Japan markets turn down
- High beta sectors are set to outperform as global investors reallocate to the cheapest AND 2nd largest tech sector in the world
Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24
- Sweden’s unemployment rate rose to 9.2% in March 2024, exceeding the predicted rate of 8.2%, which is the highest since June 2023.
- The current unemployment rate is 1.31 percentage points higher than the average rate over the past year.
- This increase indicates a concerning decline in the labour market.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24
- Australia’s CPI inflation rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6% year-on-year in Q1-24, surpassing consensus expectations of 3.4%.
- The weighted median inflation rate remained stable at 4.4%.
- The trimmed mean inflation rate slowed down slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 4%, which was less than expected.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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