In today’s briefing:
- Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally
- The week at a glance: Soft CPI in UK and a BIG positive surprise from China?
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Hospitals in Play, ROTI in Play, and Philippine Towers
- Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs
- Europe, The Elections And The Economy
- Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell
- Comment on Exchange Rate USD/JPY – March 29, 2024
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@ Smartkarma – MAPI & Boycotts, Ace Hardware Reborn, and VinFast’s Trouble
- Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher
Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally
- Qingming holiday sending surpasses 2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis
- A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand
- Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.
The week at a glance: Soft CPI in UK and a BIG positive surprise from China?
- Happy Monday and welcome to our short and sweet coverage of the data calendar for the week ahead.
- We try to map the events with market moving potential and exploit weaknesses or skews in the economic consensus around them.
- This week we see strong upside to US retail sales, Chinese GDP, while soft downside to the UK CPI figures.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Hospitals in Play, ROTI in Play, and Philippine Towers
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
- We look at Indonesian Hospitals, as Saratoga buys into Brawijaya Hospital focusing attention on the space. We also look at leading mass-market bread maker ROTI as KKR seeks an exit.
- We also look at the telecom tower space as transactions on the Philippines heat up and examine the current state of play in Indonesian towers.
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs
- Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.
- Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.
- Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view.
Europe, The Elections And The Economy
- The centre appears likely to maintain control in the forthcoming European Parliament elections.
- However, a strong showing by nationalist parties, particularly in France and Germany, may impede Europe’s economic recovery efforts.
- This could be particularly problematic given the presence of new external threats.
Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell
- Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable.
- What a week in macro and markets, huh?
- The CPI print out of the US confirmed our tilt towards a reacceleration of inflation and the difficulties Powell faces in getting to the 2% target.
Comment on Exchange Rate USD/JPY – March 29, 2024
- During the period under consideration, i.e. February 28 th , 2024 to March 29th, 2024, the USD/JPY pair fluctuated between 146 and 152 Yen per 1 Dollar.
- The MA-10 line at the beginning of the period considered was moving above the MA-20 line. From March 7 th until March 22 nd , the MA-10 line trend changed and was moving below the MA-20.
- By the end of the examined period, the MA-10 line ended up above the MA-20 line.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@ Smartkarma – MAPI & Boycotts, Ace Hardware Reborn, and VinFast’s Trouble
- The past week saw insights on Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), Vinfast (VFS US), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Ocean Gold Philippines IPO.
- There were also macro insights on Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines, and CrossASEAN Ground Zero on Indonesian Hospitals, ROTI, and Towers in the Philippines, and Indonesia.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher
- Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated
- Even larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.
- Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.
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