In today’s briefing:
- India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
- [Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
- Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
- Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades
- Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
- The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
- The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
- The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
- That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
- The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.
[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
- On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements.
- The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
- But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money.
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
- This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
- There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance.
- Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
- SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.
- Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.
- Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
- Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
- An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
- There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades
- STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
- In this insight, we have presented our final predictions for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.
Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender
- Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer.
- Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If <13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
- Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.
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