In today’s briefing:
- Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
- Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics
- Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
- Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
- HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount
- Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
- Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA
Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
- We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
- Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
- This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…
Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics
- Today, Lee Seo-hyun returned as the top executive at Samsung C&T, which officially announced her as the head of its Strategic Planning Division.
- Her return to Samsung C&T might not just be a simple comeback – it could be seen as a setup for some big changes within the company.
- Considering Samsung C&T’s Value-up Momentum, aligning with Lee Seo-hyun’s return, we must position for potential price impact, focusing on portfolio streamlining.
Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
- With a new Medium-Term Management Plan and a buyback, the stock was cheap as of Thursday’s close. It was less cheap after it went limit up +25% on Friday.
- That put it in the camp of “it may go up more but probably not a lot”. It has told you about big divs and buybacks.
- But model it up and they need to do more buybacks. Both to meet share price gains and the needs of legions of potential cross-holders looking to sell.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
- Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
- Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
- Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.
Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?
- On 29 March, it was reported that Lee Seo-Hyun has been appointed as the President of Samsung C&T (028260 KS), returning to the company after more than five years.
- Lee Seo-Hyun is the third child of the late Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-Hee. She will be in charge of the overall strategic planning of Samsung C&T.
- Many investors will likely to question this move, since they may question her ability to make strategic decisions that are in the best interests of all the minority investors.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
- The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
- Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market. 7 recommendations this week.
HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case
- HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the ship after-service subsidiary of HD Hyundai (267250 KS), aims to raise up to US$550 million.
- The international book-building will run from 8 to 22 April, while the domestic book will open from 16 to 22 April. Pricing will be announced on 24 April.
- The investment case rests on solid top-line growth, a healthy order book, rising margins, cash generation, and modest leverage.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount
- TSMC: +11.8% Premium — Falling Closer to Its Historical Range
- ASE: +9.2% Premium; Further Breakdown Could Indicate Return to Previous Trading Range
- CHT: -1.8% Discount — Good Level to Long the Spread
Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
- In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
- The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
- We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
- Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).
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