In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves
- [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich
- MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- Merger Arb Mondays (15 Dec) – Toyota Ind, Makino, Raksul, Pacific Ind, Jinke, Meilan Airport, NSR
- Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Predictive Discovery, Jinke Smart Services, Meilan Airport
- [Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade
- 2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves
- On Friday, after market close, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves.
- The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.
- The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.
[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich
- Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s Partial Offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) discussed in [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share is trading rich.
- The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.
- With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
- The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
- There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
- The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR.
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Dec) – Toyota Ind, Makino, Raksul, Pacific Ind, Jinke, Meilan Airport, NSR
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Predictive Discovery, Jinke Smart Services, Meilan Airport
- I tally 38 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
- Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Raksul Inc (4384 JP).
- Key updates/news also took place on Toyota Industries (6201 JP),Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP).
[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.
- The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more.
- The Nikkei reports today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade
- BigBear.ai Holdings, NextVision Stabilized Systems, Ondas Holdings Inc and Planet Labs will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 December.
- The 4 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$846m.
- The adds have all run up over the last year and the passive buying could give the stocks another leg up in the short-term.
2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)
- Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
- IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
- Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.
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